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现房销售占比飙升35.5%!期房成交量却暴跌

发布于 2025-09-10

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">以下是太平洋证券房地产行业报告的核心内容总结:</span></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="HBo2uMM9NG" style="" data-dir-key="HBo2uMM9NG"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">一、现房销售现状(2025年)</span></span></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">规模占比</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">全国新建商品房销售面积4.59亿㎡(2025年1-6月),现房销售占1.63亿㎡(同比+12.5%),现房销售占比达35.5%(较2024年提升4.7个百分点)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2015-2021年现房销售占比从23%降至10%,2022年后持续回升。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">区域差异</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">海南现房销售占比最高(67.9%),天津、黑龙江、吉林超40%,19个省份低于全国平均水平,四川最低(14.7%)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">价格特征</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">现房均价6334.5元/㎡,低于期房34.4%,长期处于期房价的60%-75%(主因现房多为滞销尾盘或区域需求不足)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100045346" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlGjnSib6JXXoeO8wTia7icXRtweQxBjOLpHemoSrHiaiacpgZc15Er1ia7KvHOduoKsaj7X5aWUbAMD29Q/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="rwPWjpPSca" style="" data-dir-key="rwPWjpPSca"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">二、政策演进历程</span></span></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">早期阶段(2000年前)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">1994年确立商品房预售制(《城市房地产管理法》)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">试点阶段(2000-2019年)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2005年央行建议取消预售制,2010年住建部鼓励现房销售试点。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2014年上海率先在土地出让中要求现房销售,多地跟进。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">风险倒逼阶段(2020-2023)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2020年海南&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">全国首个省级全面推行现房销售</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">,2023年住建部提出推动现房销售试点。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="4"><li><span data-marker="4."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">系统改革阶段(2024至今)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中央层面</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2024年二十届三中全会提出“改革商品房预售制度,推进现房销售”。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">地方实践</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:昆明、银川、广州等出台配套政策(如提高现房公积金贷款额度、土地出让金缓缴等)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="LANyy-IYXd" style="" data-dir-key="LANyy-IYXd"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">三、地方新政案例</span></span></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">信阳(2025年5月)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新出让土地项目一律现房销售,加强预售资金监管(资金入监管账户设为网签前置条件)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">荆门(2025年7月)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新出让土地原则上实行现房销售,2025年8月起新项目需主体封顶方可预售。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100045347" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlGjnSib6JXXoeO8wTia7icXRtgtmSglpSZThxmuOriaHlOIjP8LGxsJ7T9YuGn1oEKS3m4GEPxic47PjA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">试点项目成效:2024年首批试点开盘,</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">开盘售罄率80%以上</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">,审批周期压缩80%。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="D9TW54jClj" style="" data-dir-key="D9TW54jClj"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">四、海南案例分析(首个省级试点)</span></span></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策体系</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2020年3月全面推行现房销售,配套出台验收标准、装配式装修等规范。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">市场影响</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">短期冲击有限:2020年销售面积/新开工面积分别降13.2%/18.3%,2021年恢复正增长。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">累计成果:8万套住房实施现房销售,推动“交房即交证”。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">未来方向</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">优化审批流程(“拿地即开工”),提供“海南方案”。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="5dhlTfPF0S" style="" data-dir-key="5dhlTfPF0S"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">五、影响及趋势展望</span></span></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">短期影响</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">房企:</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">资金压力加剧</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">,开发周期延长,周转率下降(参考P23现金循环周期对比图)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">地方政府:土地出让收入承压,需配套支持(如融资优惠、公积金倾斜)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">购房者:透明度和安全性提升,但房价可能上涨。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中长期转型</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">促进行业集中度提升(资源向央国企及头部房企倾斜)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">推动配套产业升级(如装配式建筑)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">推广路径</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">优先在</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">高库存、低能级城市</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">落地,短期预售与现房制度并行发展。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="dnxRcbN6Q8" style="" data-dir-key="dnxRcbN6Q8"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">六、风险提示</span></span></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策落地不及预期</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:地方配套支持力度不足;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">土地市场波动</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:房企拿地意愿下降影响财政;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">行业下行压力</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:房企资金链风险加剧。</span></span></span></span></li></ol><blockquote style=""><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">注</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:报告数据截至2025年6月,时效性较强;核心建议关注&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">融资能力强、产品创新的央国企房企</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。</span></span></span></span></p></blockquote><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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