<section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;" data-mpa-powered-by="yiban.io"><section class="xmteditor" style="display:none;" data-tools="æ°åªä½ç®¡å®¶" data-label="powered by xmt.cn"></section></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 15px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: inherit;">è¡å¸æ¯ä¿¡å¿çå¸åºï¼ç¹å«æ¯å¨æ³¡æ²«æé´ï¼å¾å¤äººè§å¾é¢æµæªæ¥æ¯ä¸ä»¶ä¸é è°±çäºï¼é¢æµæ³¡æ²«çååå°±æ´ä¸é è°±ï¼ä½åªè¦è¸©åä¸æ¬¡ï¼æ许æªæ¥å°±ä¼ä¸ä¸æ ·ã</span><br /></section><p style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;border-width: 0px;border-style: 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inherit;font-weight: inherit;">对æ°å¨æå¹ç模åå°±æ¯è·¨å¦ç§ç 究ææå¨è¡å¸ä¸é¢æµæ³¡æ²«è¾ä¸ºæåç模åã</span></p><p style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 15px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: inherit;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 15px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: inherit;">ä»ä¹æ¯LPPL模åï¼</span></p><p style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 15px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: inherit;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><strong><span style="font-style: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: inherit;color: rgb(25, 25, 25);font-family: "PingFang SC", Arial, 微软é é», å®ä½, simsun, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(249, 249, 249);">表达å¼ï¼Ln[p(t)]âA+B(tc-t)β{1+Ccos[Ïln(tc-t)+Ф]}</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 15px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: inherit;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(25, 25, 25);text-align: left;background-color: rgb(249, 249, 249);font-family: inherit;font-style: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-size: 15px;">LPPL模åæ¯å¯¹æ°å¨ææ§å¹å¾æ¨¡åï¼<span style="font-style: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: inherit;color: rgb(25, 25, 25);font-family: "PingFang SC", Arial, 微软é é», å®ä½, simsun, sans-serif;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(249, 249, 249);">æ¯åºäºäº¤æè ä¹é´çç¸äºæ¨¡ä»¿</span>ï¼<span 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15px;">ä¸å¾ä¸è¯´ï¼è¯¥æ¨¡åå¨æ³¡æ²«æ¹®æ²¡æ¶é´é¢æµåå泡沫走å¿é¢æµæ¹é¢åå¾äºä¸å°æåï¼å¦è±å½æ¿å°äº§æ³¡æ²«ãä¸å½è¡å¸å泡沫çã</span></p><p style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(25, 25, 25);text-align: left;background-color: rgb(249, 249, 249);font-family: inherit;font-style: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;"><span style="font-style: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: inherit;color: rgb(25, 25, 25);font-family: "PingFang SC", Arial, 微软é é», å®ä½, simsun, sans-serif;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(249, 249, 249);">ä¸é¢è®©æ们è¿ç¨<span style="color: rgb(25, 25, 25);font-family: "PingFang SC", Arial, 微软é é», å®ä½, simsun, sans-serif;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(249, 249, 249);">LPPL模å对è¡å¸åæ¿å°äº§åäºä¸ä¸ªåæµï¼</span></span><span style="background-color: rgb(249, 249, 249);color: rgb(25, 25, 25);font-family: "PingFang SC", Arial, 微软é é», å®ä½, simsun, sans-serif;text-align: left;font-style: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: inherit;">å¦ä¸ï¼</span></span><span style="background-color: rgb(249, 249, 249);color: rgb(25, 25, 25);font-family: "PingFang SC", Arial, 微软é é», å®ä½, simsun, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;text-align: left;font-style: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: inherit;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: bolder;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: bolder;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;font-size: 15px;background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">ä¸è¯ç»¼æåæµï¼</span><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: bolder;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;font-size: 15px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: bolder;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.5737991266375546" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxibJ1iaGRwOY3ty8kg2YTpE7UJjsGIjXxu0PM4wMcVbUVHFfy1b2Agic62eluZCA6P2DolxcVGPZvJA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1145" style=""></section><p><br /></p><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;">ä¸è¯ç»¼æ 2005/06/06 - 2007/11/30æé´</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;line-height: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;">é¢æµæ¬è½®æ³¡æ²«æç¹ä¸´çæ¶é´åçå¨2005/06/06ä¹åç第[603,606]个交ææ¥</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;">å®é æ¬è½®æ³¡æ²«æç¹ä¸´çæ¶é´åçå¨2005/06/06ä¹åç第575个交ææ¥</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);">æ»å18-21个交ææ¥é¢æµåºæ³¡æ²«é¡¶ç¹</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;font-size: 15px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.6012773722627737" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxibJ1iaGRwOY3ty8kg2YTpE7dhXIvzuNLab9AbP1qia9073M3kBqbkI0kAsGcu44H39ovuaeEJSZ6wQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1096" style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;">ä¸è¯ç»¼æ 2008/10/28 - 2009/09/30æé´</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;line-height: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;">é¢æµæ¬è½®æ³¡æ²«æç¹ä¸´çæ¶é´åçå¨2008/10/28ä¹åç第[186,189]个交ææ¥</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;">å®é æ¬è½®æ³¡æ²«æç¹ä¸´çæ¶é´åçå¨2008/10/28ä¹åç第190个交ææ¥</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);">æå1-4个交ææ¥é¢æµåºæ³¡æ²«é¡¶ç¹</span></section><p><br /></p><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.5651376146788991" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxibJ1iaGRwOY3ty8kg2YTpE7GhkeFicicP16Q5AyjN0ujia6Xhgycm5FeHlxdkN41dicVg5x35LyVqcYUg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1090" style=""></section><p><br /></p><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;">ä¸è¯ç»¼æ 2013/06/25 - 2015/05/28æé´</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;line-height: normal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;">é¢æµæ¬è½®æ³¡æ²«æç¹ä¸´çæ¶é´åçå¨2013/06/25ä¹åç第[474,477]个交ææ¥</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;">å®é æ¬è½®æ³¡æ²«æç¹ä¸´çæ¶é´åçå¨2013/06/25ä¹åç第479个交ææ¥</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);">æå2-5个交ææ¥é¢æµåºæ³¡æ²«é¡¶ç¹</span></section><p><br /></p><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: bolder;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;font-size: 15px;background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">æ¿å°äº§åæµï¼</span><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: bolder;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;font-size: 15px;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: bolder;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;border-width: 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inherit;vertical-align: baseline;">ä¸äºæ¿å°äº§ 2007/09 - 2018/09æé´</span></strong></span><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;font-size: 15px;"></span></section><p style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;text-align: center;line-height: normal;"><strong><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></strong></p><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;font-size: 15px;">é¢æµæ¬è½®æ³¡æ²«æç¹ä¸´çæ¶é´åçå¨2007/09ä¹åç第142个æ</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;font-size: 15px;">å®é æ¬è½®æ³¡æ²«æç¹ä¸´çæ¶é´åçå¨2007/09ä¹åç第136个æ</span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 15px;"><span style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);">æ»å6个æé¢æµåºæ³¡æ²«é¡¶ç¹</span></span></section><p><br /></p><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="background-color: 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