直播回顾 | 2023，地产又会很嗨

<p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;" data-mpa-powered-by="yiban.io"><br /></p><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: justify;margin: 0em 16px;"><img class="__bg_gif rich_pages wxw-img" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.10658708164570455" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/c6gqmhWiafypv3Qib1OB9L9c0Jibsvavr0eQ9yjHUJWB2kEy7qpkYxDaHlNpU8IibgENkA6icoAicwRRo8RuNUWz1elQ/640?wx_fmt=gif" data-type="gif" data-w="4691" style="width: auto !important;height: auto !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">正文共4175字，预计阅读时间11分钟</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">结合五一假期发生的一些事件及思考，先回顾一下节前<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649839232&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7581ef2c471690ece17bd9e1868c1870&amp;chksm=8351175fb4269e496d3948bc20f6648499e63caf15769a2ca516ba9cbea931948fe44e3f1a2a&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="直播的宏观分析（上）" linktype="text" imgurl="" imgdata="null" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2">直播的宏观分析（上）</a>的核心内容。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">第一，当前宏观经济的状态？</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从我们熟知的三架马车的视角看：</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">基础投资触底反弹</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，“五一”期间国家最高领导人的会议，讲了很多方面的内容，都是关于基础投资建设，特别新基建方面。<br /></span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">消费低迷</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，可能还是以发消费券的方式，结合疫情，针对重点消费行业进行扶持，这块我们看到很多城市都在推进。目前比较重要的物价及通胀问题，我们主要是通过统一大市场，降低中间成本的方式在推进。</span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">进出口高位回落</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，这块没有太多很重要的信息出来，当下还是处于稳定增长的状态。</span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">总的来说，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>很多经济问题不用太担心，因为我们有很多操作的空间</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">第二，如何看待一系列的房地产调控利好政策？</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">在五一期间，各城市纷纷出台很多房地产的救市政策，怎么看待这些利好。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从周期上来看，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>国家“房住不炒”阶段性的调控目标已经实现</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">接下来，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>关键是如何定义房地产行业</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">？</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">房地产行业到底是资产业务、还是中间业务？</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">资产业务的话，需要大家建立自己的资金池，用各种各样的方式去融资，然后在这个池子里加杠杆，加了杠杆再去投资。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">过去房地产的模式，实际上就是资产业务的模式</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。这里面包括很多有争议的操作，比如说向员工发放理财，或者成立一个理财公司，小贷公司，类似银行的做法，可以简单的理解为，过去房地产行业金融化程度非常高。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">那未来，会不会发生变化？</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">有些人会觉得出台利好之后，地产行情会好起来，但三道红线摆在我们面前，意味着</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>国家对未来地产行业的定位，是一个中间业务</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，而不是资产业务。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">中间业务是什么意思？</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">可以理解为，国家是房企的上家，国家提供原材料，房企从事组织生产协调、房屋生产、销售等相关工作。期间所有资金不能持续加杠杆重复利用。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这也是房住不炒的核心——不仅仅是居民，企业也不能炒。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">因此房住不炒和三道红线并不矛盾，全部调控的都是开发商。而在五一期间出台的地产利好政策，它针对的全部都是购房者。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">也就是说，</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">过去的调控是针对房地产企业，当下的利好是针对购房者</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">如果地产行业定义为中间业务，那未来整个房地产的周期，会变得更扁平，就是波动幅度会更温和，对房企来说会获得更好的发展，市场也会变得更健康。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">接下来，我们正式进入正题——</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 36px;">01</span></strong></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;">从社融与M2，看市场行情</span></strong></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><br /></span></strong></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5bcX6XmF7YJpq2IoOatJdhRAkhrclakGhIWfr4ibRmY7ODOmtWHK2PhzNhhf6LYvcxfE6EsCXGaSA/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="2249" data-cropy1="369.6453287197232" data-cropy2="1268.4671280276816" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.4" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5bcX6XmF7YJpq2IoOatJdheX5Ttoed0GYxuO2qEagdDMZHwz4TKqmTXmj9yUbsr6UtDJg3FlEC4g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="width: 578px;height: 231px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">灰色柱子：社融增速-M2增速</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">蓝线：社融规模存量增速<br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">红线：M2增速</span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">在2016年之前，我们去看M2来判断地产周期是比较可行的，但房住不炒之后，国家开始在去企业杠杆，地产跟社会融资规模的关系变得更为密切，所以具体</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>通过“社会融资增速-M2增速”（灰色柱子），来看市场周期会更准</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">而“社会融资增速-M2增速”的多项式趋势线（灰色虚线），确实也更接近房地产大的周期趋势，可用来做预判的参考。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">上一波地产市场行情的高位，出现在2017年上半年，然后2018年开始往下走，到2019年底的时候，市场继续下行，但因为疫情，2020年突然放水，市场行情冲了一波，持续到2021年四月份，整个中国地产行情都非常火爆。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2021年五月，市场行情开始回落，到2022年一月份触底，近几个月，资金都持续在一个低位，也就是说，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>现在可能真的是地产行情最差的时候</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">对于企业来说，未来的模式有两个——高周转&amp;高附加值。</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">第一个高周转，作为中间业务，肯定的先有效率，当然“房住不炒”在前，房企自然不能高周转同时加高杠杆；</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">另外一个高附加值，对应产品定位的能力。</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>对于企业来说，短期目标肯定先要“活下来”，降低成本，重新整理团队，而长期目标则需要不断提升产品。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">对于个人而言，如果你是地产从业人员，我觉得这个时候</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>除了先保住工作，还可以在企业里，持续发出一些声音。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">比如可以将本文的这些内容传递给领导或老板，告诉他们说现在是市场最困难的时候。(正如“禾略2021年的第一份PPT”里判断的，2021年上半年，是整个房地产市场的高位)，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>同时不断提升自己的基本技能，持续迭代我们对这个世界的认识，提升预判能力</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 36px;">02</span></strong></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;">从房地产贷款余额与M1、M2，看资金压力<br /></span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5bcX6XmF7YJpq2IoOatJdhgyXPibPSeDjyN8knH8mnn9iaIhvqyhCicic6NcSyZKy0zAtrKunT34pZLg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="2235" data-cropy1="123.7370242214533" data-cropy2="1148.4342560553634" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.45703125" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5bcX6XmF7YJpq2IoOatJdhcWBkXY0NOmYsDt8aAT8A0IyibhFZFMHQPUKTcfrwia5Fu4DzWRjfs4TA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="width: 578px;height: 265px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">紫线-贷款余额：房地产贷款同比</span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">绿线-M2：同比<br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">蓝线-M1：同比</span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">从2016年下半年开始，基本上就进入对开发商融资管控收紧的周期</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，房地产贷款余额下行幅度远低于M２，但这一两年依旧这么多房企暴雷，主要原因可能还是因为大家普遍都在习惯性加高杠杆。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">到2021年７月，出现第一个M２与房地产贷款的交叉点后，企业开始陆续爆雷</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从融资的角度来讲，现在最差的时候已经过去了，但未来不会很乐观。地产贷款余额的增速，很有可能不会再超过M2，也就是说，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>房企以后很难去赚宏观放水的钱</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">同时，客户的需求端节奏，跟开发商供给端的节奏存在错位</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，虽说目前M１在一月份已经见底，但从上一轮的行情来看——2019年3月触底反弹，到2020年9月才见顶，在本轮周期中，客户真正能拿出钱来买房子，还需要等到2022年下半年。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">当下，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>房企不宜过度悲观，降价卖房，因为以后可能没有融资再扩张投资的能力，需要重新审视现在手里的资源</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">融资方面，所有的再融资，目前看下来只针对两个行业，第一个是科技公司，高新技术企业。第二个是能源行业，比如说煤炭。而房企的再融资继续被限制，不得用于买地和偿还银行贷款。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">资源方面，比如</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>毛坯房可以考虑改做精装修</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，为什么这个时候做精装修有优势——因为降首付，现在政府的导向对需求端非常友好，降首付意味着客户可能是在首付没有变的情况下，买到精装房。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">同时，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>今年我们面临的通胀压力很大</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，客户买到房子，这段时间的升值正好可以抗一抗通胀。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">到2022年十二月份，我们面临的通胀压力或将达到最大，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>到2023年上半年，房价大概率会有明显上涨。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">假如房价上涨20%，也就是说，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>接下来的一年里，房地产存在着边际的弹性</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，银行公布的一切指标，包括CPI（消费者物价指数），它们的涨幅可能会去到30%。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 36px;">03</span></strong></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;">从三驾马车，看地产角色转型</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">多维度视角看，房地产行业还是个夜壶吗？</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们一直认为房地产非常的重要。房地产行，经济就行，房产不行，经济就不行，其实不是，现阶段需要用多维度的视角，去看待地产行业。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">以“三驾马车”为抓手，从消费、出口、固投三个维度看房地产的角色转变。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">从固投来看，房地产重要性下降</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">首先是固投，近年来，经济转型屡次提到“新基建”。新老基建的区别也很明显：老基建是指修桥铺路盖房子，这里以基建工程、地产、水泥、钢铁、公路运输等行业为主。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">新基建是指建网铺线盖基站，这里以5G、云计算、新能源汽车、工业互联网等方向为主。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">也就是说，在老基建当中，跟房地产的关系密切，甚至到达“休戚与共”的水平，而</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>在新基建里，</strong></span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">房地产只要不拖后腿就行。</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 16px;font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">从出口来看，房地产影响占比不大</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">其次从工业的角度去看，虽然出口有一些下降，但也有差不多20%的权重，只需要增长5%，就能为GDP增长贡献1%，所以我们GDP全年目标5.5%，压力还是不大的，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>不需要靠地产去冲GDP</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 16px;">从消费来看，消费下行的压力，一靠财政补贴，二靠降PPI</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">最后，在房地产角色转型里面，最大的压力是在于，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>消费会不会下行？</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5bcX6XmF7YJpq2IoOatJdhlvCspjN5RibjE3DRaseWwxTyFjy4xUKRRwJ4aqgLptjgU0zpXV5ZP9w/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="2156.6989619377164" data-cropy1="228.03806228373702" data-cropy2="1186.5709342560554" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.44453125" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5bcX6XmF7YJpq2IoOatJdhndq5icSXdqTrNZibV1tVNic7b4aeFKlQcnEJETooTkXicVSUZ2agbfccsA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="width: 558px;height: 248px;" /></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">红线-CPI：当月同比</span><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">绿线-CPI：食品：当月同比<br /></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">灰线-CPI：非食品：当月同比</span></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">如果不发消费券，消费大概率会下行，同时老百姓的满意度也会下降，因为整个CPI，特别是食品的CPI，在2021年四季度见底反弹。</span><strong style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><span style="font-size: 16px;">发消费券，其实是一种对食品类CPI物价的补贴。</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">容易被忽视的是，当CPI上升时，房价没有跌过。</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">也就是说，房价也是会通货膨胀。从这点上来看，现在你手里所有跟房地产相关的资产都非常宝贵。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">通货膨胀，带来最大的好处是债务贬值，这有利于解决当下房企暴雷问题</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">暴雷看起来是个现金流的问题，本质上是资不抵债的问题。假如企业的资产因为通货膨胀涨了30%-50%，债务问题并没有膨胀，那资产就能够覆盖债务。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br />我们预判大概2023年年中，房企的暴雷问题会得到解决解决，所以2023年三季度土地市场可能又会很热。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">当下拍地，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>很多人说“国进民退”，但这是不客观的</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，因为在民营企业是在乱加杠杆的时候，高速增长，而国企跟央企则比较克制，他们今天有钱拿地，并不是所谓的“国进民退”，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>本质上是大家采取的策略不一样</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">再来看下PPI（生产者物价指数）：</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5bcX6XmF7YJpq2IoOatJdhnUfhaAqaGeC1Rhenu6b2h9tIpLNlWiaagQOHxMNTia0INibqdgyOOicW2g/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="2175.076124567474" data-cropy1="251.56574394463664" data-cropy2="1180.4238754325256" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.4265625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5bcX6XmF7YJpq2IoOatJdhAIuZsdNOY14zFsdACzIrdQnK3tpPSTD1C5sUGfuPuPpxRCKdQeJ33w/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="width: 562px;height: 240px;" /></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">红线-中国：PPI：生产资料：当月同比</span><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">绿线-南华商品指数：同比<br /></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">灰线-美国：PPI：同比</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2020年5月-2021年9月，因为疫情，我国PPI（红线）强劲拉升</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，这一轮甚至超过2017年的水平，目前呈现趋势性回落。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">美国CPI也是很高的，他们使用</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>强势美元来压低美国的PPI</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，然后加息来控制国内的CPI通胀。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">比如美元指数原来是80，现在120，等于说升值了50%，以前花一块钱买到的东西，现在可能只需要七毛五，也就是说，那个东西涨价30%，也是能接受的。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">中国的策略正好相反</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，因为我们暂时没能力像美国那样搞强势人民币，可以一直升值。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所以我们会用大量的</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>财政补贴</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，像是消费券，去支持整个需求的反弹，包括</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>控制供应</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">，比如今年国家会希望通过把进出口降下来，然后</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>把PPI降下来</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">如果把中国PPI的红线理解为地价，把南华商品指数的绿线理解为房价，可以发现房价已经不涨了，但如果地价继续涨，就会出现房企爆雷的现象。所以这个时候，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">我们需要让地价降下来，回到涨幅匹配的空间</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">PPI大概降到2017年的水平，5%左右，会比较好。</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 36px;">04</span></strong></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;">房价周期预测</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">最后，我们做了一个房价周期预测：</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5bcX6XmF7YJpq2IoOatJdhlRnibTd2NpK3peJCDI4pibpgLlJQNNaxUwFTFBlCliab6y65mAbhOeA7w/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="31.155709342560552" data-cropx2="2177.0051903114186" data-cropy1="331.0294117647059" data-cropy2="1059.294117647059" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.33828125" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5bcX6XmF7YJpq2IoOatJdhDhGIKNF57xzh0t5971o7YyFnyqI0zQMJPqdpxfX473Rqiaiba6icMEiaEw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="width: 551px;height: 187px;"></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">主要是用房价的变化率，来看大家的购房热情，跟M1、M2没有关系，是我们常用的方法，</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>红线代表消费者的心态</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">当价格涨得飞快，所有人都在抓紧入场，是这个市场最火的时候，然后慢慢开始冷静，跌破零线之后，意味着整个价格已经没有上涨的动力，可以理解为就是没有新增的客户。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">在2021年的第一份PPT里跟大家分享了一个观点，2021年的二三月份是高位，然后</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>可能在2022年的七月份接近底部</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所以说项目不好卖，没必要去降价，不如就放一放，当然要评估一下资金成本，借的钱不是销售额的，这是一个很重要的测算点。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">*<br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">▼▼▼</span>直播回顾可戳<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">▼▼▼</span></span><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><iframe class="video_iframe rich_pages" data-vidtype="1" data-cover="http%3A%2F%2Fshp.qpic.cn%2Fqqvideo_ori%2F0%2Fh3337idgpzk_496_280%2F0" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" data-ratio="2" data-w="864" data-src="https://v.qq.com/iframe/preview.html?width=500&amp;height=375&amp;auto=0&amp;vid=h3337idgpzk"></iframe></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"></span><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">-END-</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br /></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: red;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">&nbsp;-&nbsp; 小程序 -&nbsp;</span><br style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;" /></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">&nbsp;·「禾略问答」·</span></section><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><a class="weapp_image_link" data-miniprogram-appid="wxf051804df9944e68" data-miniprogram-path="pages/index/index" data-miniprogram-nickname="禾略问答" data-miniprogram-type="image" data-miniprogram-servicetype="" href="" style="max-width: 100%;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;line-height: 0;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;" href=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.33830455259026687" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxgXqtJ7x2ATMbtIm1oBmTM5cLtzxaHKiaJINP1DiaedwSS8oUuQadhFxpcXZiaWxTvWyWxXichXeiaGHw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1274" style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;margin: 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;width: 648px !important;visibility: visible !important;top: auto;left: auto;right: auto;bottom: auto;"></a></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;" /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;caret-color: red;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">&nbsp;·<span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">「HotTina」</span>·</span></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><a class="weapp_image_link" data-miniprogram-appid="wxdcdd1e610d71ae74" data-miniprogram-path="pages/serch/serch" data-miniprogram-nickname="HotTina" data-miniprogram-type="image" data-miniprogram-servicetype="" href="" style="max-width: 100%;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;line-height: 0;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;" href=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="120" data-backw="389" data-ratio="0.30973451327433627" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxBKiaQNH3yAajSVKNDghYCq5gnROOAWjmdwIqhP9gBLpU9iaicBb19EGQVKpTzeP0lOXYyF5icG1y74Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="791" style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;width: 632px;margin: 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;visibility: visible !important;top: auto;left: auto;right: auto;bottom: auto;"></a></section><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">*</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;" /></p><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">▷往期文章彩蛋：不要戳开！！！</span></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500345&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=93797fca0ea11825bcc9e5e1c0109c52&amp;chksm=9756b81da021310ba7a377bdce7ef2877fb30eb246731c626bffd343008b77703527595ad2ed&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1" style="max-width: 100%;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;vertical-align: bottom;top: auto;left: auto;right: auto;bottom: auto;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugLLibwPxIshPkhYb8rUpx6OiaokEiaiaoQAs4pBYvOk4KlGWhp5OagMyWaw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;width: 632px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;visibility: visible !important;"></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500355&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=2c6ce758ab3881befb2fbba0ba3603f1&amp;chksm=9756b867a021317120bad43bc938ebb4cdb2953af8c54167618f6a0d2e10e4a0c0dbbeb90f65&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1" style="max-width: 100%;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;vertical-align: bottom;top: auto;left: auto;right: auto;bottom: auto;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xug2z2ZNw3efskOCCTiaR2MZIrkVnqNUUySzc8kPhT5aLfLE1SvHGhoJUw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;width: 632px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;visibility: visible !important;"></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500384&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=ce96c211a2ed19ee560b34d30d321292&amp;chksm=9756b844a0213152bb36ae4ebc877ea634416495af8892942074d23f0d1b5581b32b705c0835&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1" style="max-width: 100%;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;vertical-align: bottom;top: auto;left: auto;right: auto;bottom: auto;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugNEZT4DD88icwcAl08ZuziaiadYt82wzZG5n14t7224xWjyeK8SNXNIp8A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;width: 632px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;visibility: visible !important;"></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500776&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6f4fcd10bc90a8f72744416eda3995a4&amp;chksm=9756b9cca02130da9094518319d318ca4fd11413c1213d18be9cc9d8302528b34816fdd34394&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1" style="max-width: 100%;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;vertical-align: bottom;top: auto;left: auto;right: auto;bottom: auto;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugA8lpBib3AWM95x6tIIxu56bryKOYOVyRWzd6jsYRjicIiaF1hohgrpN1w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;width: 632px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;visibility: visible !important;"></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500347&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=dffbd70a87a2f5610cf728e4970ec869&amp;chksm=9756b81fa0213109c740e135c93ac90c20e029871a10bf1ad6d116f9d663d7a26b7d8a673bbe&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1" style="max-width: 100%;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;vertical-align: bottom;top: auto;left: auto;right: auto;bottom: auto;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugMQjVx8C1LeClYXAgR1lKe771SGnJj9TxohSmoF4W79ORTDc52UmmNQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;width: 632px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;visibility: visible !important;"></span></a></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: right;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 1.5em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;" /></section></section></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: right;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 13px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">2022 | 有妖气</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: right;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;" /></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="93717" data-width="95%" style="margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;max-width: 100%;width: 627.938px;flex: 0 0 95%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;background-image: url(&quot;https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/7QRTvkK2qC6tIGvc3ozCHcBonywI7fDV4Ksmoy5hWQHibq7TQpAQ5tricOQ7dnLg81iapxGeoUkic5Ob8vHOSI24xQ/640?wx_fmt=png&quot;);background-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="padding: 1em;max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 13px;caret-color: red;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="392" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="697" data-ratio="1.7777777777777777" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5bcX6XmF7YJpq2IoOatJdhWSZsjmKW0sib3zc7LzXlTX6Aeg7w4icOT5cu8BSRlCSNQrPuuVHeCK1w/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1080" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 392px;height: 697px;" title="好.png"></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;caret-color: red;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">&nbsp;「 www.urasr.com」&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);caret-color: red;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 10px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">#BE TRUE&nbsp; #BE WELL&nbsp; #BE WILD</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;" /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(163, 163, 163);letter-spacing: 1.5px;font-family: 微软雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;" /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;caret-color: red;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">*</span><br style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;" /></section></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">关注分享</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;caret-color: red;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">FOLLOW US &amp; SHARE ON MOMENTS</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;" /></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="98910" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout" style="max-width: 100%;flex-flow: row nowrap;display: flex;word-break: break-all;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">官网</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">微博</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">视频号</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">知乎</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">b站</span></p></section></section></section></section></section><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;" /></p></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="98910" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout" style="max-width: 100%;flex-flow: row nowrap;display: flex;word-break: break-all;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="13" data-backw="13" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="50" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="50" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIycoMZjGF8RrRlGEzqzackrSSVqK5SzNApiaN9vmWpNcEuzuMInkGCcu5SiaAn2iba30oI1cPAeJVnqw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="18" data-backw="18" data-cropselx1="1" data-cropselx2="103" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="104" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZfQibibfZGIkjRNwTHwQ4KNp3zu2sgMcS5VLib1OHNDwOibjnPpUoribI5IcQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" width="50px" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="1.0044247787610618" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzdKK1pWxDY25IjWC6hzyuZPClD30iaLtAVGt7UszT4kJMlymjsJz0yLneTFRIJS1jvpr56X0OGLrQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="226" data-width="50px" height="71" style="box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 50px !important;visibility: visible !important;" width="50px"></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="47" data-backw="47" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZficyibw72OWmSMvgNNjSWoDHlf7aSgplp7dtCDAEFtJKHBnC8qaLHSIeQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" width="50px" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="13" data-backw="13" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="69" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="69" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-width="50px" data-ratio="1" data-w="300" width="50px" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwaUyIuHQngl5c5PD5uQEXrh3UfLLLmbNNIYHsl0uM1fFRJCOicUgwgiaAoBNbUmeBiahGEFZBm9uXAw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;" /></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;" /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">感谢你的每一个分享 | 点赞 | 在看</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">SPECIAL THANKS</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">▼▼▼</span></section></section>