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看不见也逃不过的周期力量

发布于 2019-02-24

<p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">如果预测的结果,只有两种答案,那么我们预测任何一种情况,正确率都能达50%。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">比如,明天会不会下雨?明年房价涨还是跌?</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">假设我在南方,清明前后预测明天会下雨,这样我的正确率,就会增加到70%,甚至更高。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">因为我知道每年清明前后,江南一带,就成了冷暖气流割据的前线,冷暖交汇,大量的水蒸气,就会液化成小水滴,大量的小水滴,会组成云,然后相互合并,变成大水滴,掉下来就形成雨。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">可见,<span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>预测,只和一件事有关——你对这件事的了解程度</strong></span>。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">单纯预测房价涨还是跌,是不理性的。因为不同角色,会有不同的预测结果。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">比方说,你问“深圳的市场怎么样?”,不同人就会给你不同的答案,都是很感性的答案。</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-style: italic;">开发商,会高喊“资本寒冬,要活下去”,配合大规模裁员,给员工营造工作压力;</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-style: italic;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;">地产中介,会跟你说“深圳地少人多,现在调控只是稳定一下局面,未来还是要涨的”;</span></em></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><em><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;">各路专家,会拿出房价的同比、环比走势,虽然能解释市场的部分现象,但规律并不明显,并不能很好的判断未来;</span></em></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></em></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWsLN7pWXzOMkchueoiaRXuNx9XA1iabMibNGR0zTsAkaCx3zjjolzXpdOw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><em><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;">普通市民,则是单纯看房价和工资的关系,“3万/㎡已经见顶了,房价再涨,普通工薪阶层都买不起,深圳还是要跌”。</span></em></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><em><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></em></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><em><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;">然而,结合深圳的楼市调控政策和重大事件,看房价走势,也难以感知市场的好坏。</span></em></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></em></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWFicrxCsmXic4h8kZVtGMp5ferjLdW1KiaV1aOReaXbUStdX05QDmswbeQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">很多人会觉得,是官方无形的小手在调控房价,但房地产从业者都知道,<strong>即便行业一直在上升的阶段,也存在市场周期的波动。</strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">以纯粹量化的角度看,房价的涨跌,不是受政策影响,而是受周期波动的影响。</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">周期上行,政策趋严,市场火热,周期下行,政策放宽,市场降温。房价也随着周期波动而起伏。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们借助余弦函数,拆解房价的周期,研发出【</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>禾略牛熊周期模型</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">】。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">通过周期图的方法,识别影响房价波动的要素构成,然后计算过滤出重要要素,分析该<span style="font-size: 14px;">各项重要要素</span>的周期特征,挑选最有特征,得出房价的牛熊周期。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5965367965367966" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWX9D6qpKrIBOGgPVQNRaaO8g2DefnUcBusNJxqrTZUWbiaXK9L9OfStQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1155" style="" /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">通过周期模型,我们可以来看看深圳的市场温度变化</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">——</span></strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWE6icnJWj5ye49tb79hq3LnfjlFa7qM4cUQsQ7DTZSZqtG9f5DOCE0Mw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;" /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2015年,深圳市场周期进入上升通道,政策开始松动,一年5次降准降息,市场看似形势一片大好,但到12月就已接近峰值,此时,泰禾拿了个尖岗山地王,楼面价将近8万/㎡。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><img class="" data-backh="217" data-backw="111" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWNUF7RDaPEQicuvfTtOibK3ibVWHFndriaGeCiac1p4Wsoz6UmnAGQtC2LbA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWE6icnJWj5ye49tb79hq3LnfjlFa7qM4cUQsQ7DTZSZqtG9f5DOCE0Mw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="210.2290076335878" data-cropx2="439.0076335877863" data-cropy1="160.76335877862596" data-cropy2="608.0152671755726" data-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYW7ERlC8QQCqDYAxHvRPy3zggniaFfWBCTrl41Nria41GXekDXc9DxEBwQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.9563318777292575" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYW7ERlC8QQCqDYAxHvRPy3zggniaFfWBCTrl41Nria41GXekDXc9DxEBwQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="229" style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2016-2017年,深圳的房价依然保持上涨趋势,但市场周期已经进入下行通道,政策收紧,到2017年1月,更是开始全面限价。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">但同年8月,市场周期开始上行,悦府推出均价12万/㎡的豪宅,在房价开始下滑之际,该盘去化率依然去到75%。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><img class="" data-backh="245" data-backw="201" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWNLJNZpkxmQKM1xxGuuCyqtnmWCT8Wx617s5iafNjzXE5DhCjoSMGmqQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWE6icnJWj5ye49tb79hq3LnfjlFa7qM4cUQsQ7DTZSZqtG9f5DOCE0Mw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="426.93997071742314" data-cropx2="841.2298682284041" data-cropy1="127.2913616398243" data-cropy2="597.7159590043924" data-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWfA2LoLZWEah6xQTcLHqPqCMg1zneFORYDA7srQkGEDV5nHLaMRUaWQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.1325301204819278" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWIicibBWL6ctiaiaicRdda6eu2YJwFcTpxiaBrNNNj9t1DNftbb126B5PAFfQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="415" style="font-size: 14px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;width: 524px;height: 595px;" /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2018年,深圳一手房房价回落,和二手房持平,限价政策看似调控市场,实则是为了保护成交。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">上半年,市场周期进入上行通道,政策进一步收紧,同年6月,正处周期上行的峰值,华润城3期,741套住宅房源当天售罄。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-backh="256" data-backw="118" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWXeWRSPqyrjdS41kWZ1D61gcY4EOwgFdEJzKJmUtib62KMNzuvofOfyw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWE6icnJWj5ye49tb79hq3LnfjlFa7qM4cUQsQ7DTZSZqtG9f5DOCE0Mw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="836.793893129771" data-cropx2="1080" data-cropy1="78.3206106870229" data-cropy2="608.0152671755726" data-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYW1qicPzCPe6uricKDdXBC48mmnDWGIcz5ibVpXW62qGXUHRtibiaau4gtia5g/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="2.1721311475409837" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYW1qicPzCPe6uricKDdXBC48mmnDWGIcz5ibVpXW62qGXUHRtibiaau4gtia5g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="244" style="font-size: 14px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;width: 100%;height: auto;" /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">结合市场和政策的大事件来看,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>通过禾略牛熊周期的研判,我们可以直观感知城市的市场温度</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,具体到个别项目,我们试着将模型套用在具体的行政区,发现也同样适用——</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">在同一城市,不同行政区的市场周期,也不一样。</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWhZicQuBiadJL3EKQhmbvNwicOnDnlibW6XCicbFae2DE6PcfkFOg925ibYCw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;" /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">同样是2018年11月,深圳市福田区就在上行通道,臻山府推出397套房源,10分钟卖掉381套,去化率高达96%。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><img class="" data-backh="231" data-backw="258" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWiaf6BQrib1gOnXtEvUXhwNaYNSpEeE2oVN7hiaE9EXqTsSibWY50RtmibZA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWhZicQuBiadJL3EKQhmbvNwicOnDnlibW6XCicbFae2DE6PcfkFOg925ibYCw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="12.366412213740459" data-cropx2="544.1221374045801" data-cropy1="123.66412213740459" data-cropy2="599.7709923664122" data-ratio="0.8947368421052632" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWiaf6BQrib1gOnXtEvUXhwNaYNSpEeE2oVN7hiaE9EXqTsSibWY50RtmibZA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="532" style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">而宝安区则是在下行通道,华强城去化率83%,万科星城更是只有55%。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><img class="" data-backh="237" data-backw="258" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWgIvMUhFFcYjTVoC2Eic3a9jyx4YqUDpBS9qGYJQjpBzicdwHrWLDLTJQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWhZicQuBiadJL3EKQhmbvNwicOnDnlibW6XCicbFae2DE6PcfkFOg925ibYCw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="548.2442748091603" data-cropx2="1080" data-cropy1="119.54198473282443" data-cropy2="608.0152671755726" data-ratio="0.9191729323308271" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWgIvMUhFFcYjTVoC2Eic3a9jyx4YqUDpBS9qGYJQjpBzicdwHrWLDLTJQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="532" style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">单看个案,或许存在幸存者偏差,所以我们拉了一年的成交情况做对比</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">——</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">福田区2017年,全年信心都在下降,到2018年1-9月,信心在探底回升,10-12月,信心持续上扬,所以2018年的成交量,比2017年少了12%。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">同期,宝安区2017年1-4月,信心持续下降,5-11月,探底回升,2018年1-6月,信心持续上扬,7-12月高位回落,整体2018年市场信心,强于2017年,所以成交量涨幅达28%。</span></p><p style="line-height: normal;text-indent: 0in;text-align: center;direction: ltr;unicode-bidi: embed;vertical-align: bottom;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">同时,为了验证禾略牛熊周期模型,对其他城市是否适用,我们挑选了上海、成都做检验——</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">通过周期模型,看上海的市场温度变化</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">——</span></strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="556" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="313" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWGv2oAgmqS3ajY6H722HNu48dJUicYNxXAXq2LG9wtVqx4nnbWLmoEhw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="height: 313px;white-space: normal;width: 556px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2014年,上海在周期下行期,同年4月,金大元御珑公馆,推出一批精装大平层房源,并以7.2折“甩卖”,原价均价5万元/平,调整后均价3.6万元/平。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-backh="279" data-backw="104" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWoVCMqPZyMiaDYUJC5QhdQGwuxnfWovUkJeVXKamiaribmfdoQQuzpZfgA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWGv2oAgmqS3ajY6H722HNu48dJUicYNxXAXq2LG9wtVqx4nnbWLmoEhw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="56.33093525179856" data-cropx2="258.3453237410072" data-cropy1="50.50359712230216" data-cropy2="592.4460431654677" data-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWmnR0a70Dtm6iahlBkT2vWOKKGFGCNVj3rVyjl0Gt8YGdbH7g4wJFMew/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="2.6831683168316833" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWmnR0a70Dtm6iahlBkT2vWOKKGFGCNVj3rVyjl0Gt8YGdbH7g4wJFMew/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="202" style="height: auto;white-space: normal;width: 100%;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2015年,全年信心不足,政策放松,公积金最高贷款额度上调。</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2016年,市场下行周期结束,同年2月,上海瑞虹新城第六期,8万/平方米,352套房源开盘当日售罄,4月,上海大宁金茂府,以9.2万元/平开盘,当日售罄222套房源。政策开始收紧。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-backh="253" data-backw="215" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWz00licMbllqSbia6hahZBrBgic6WjeUIoibvgYwvOtvtH4GuTsdRwicmAUQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWGv2oAgmqS3ajY6H722HNu48dJUicYNxXAXq2LG9wtVqx4nnbWLmoEhw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="250.5755395683453" data-cropx2="668.2014388489208" data-cropy1="116.54676258992806" data-cropy2="607.9856115107914" data-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWkdNianh43ZO5icSas1KSsMcI8tydYB0fN3OKV3bgYIUSCO3jibmcEp7icQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.1770334928229664" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWkdNianh43ZO5icSas1KSsMcI8tydYB0fN3OKV3bgYIUSCO3jibmcEp7icQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="418" style="height: auto;white-space: normal;width: 100%;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2017年,市场周期开始下行,政策调整,上调贷款利率。</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">到2018年,全市信心仍是不足,同年3月,位于上海嘉定新城的盘古园府,推出共416套房源,均价约3.5-4.3万元/平方米,但开盘当天仅82人认筹,5月,金山的汤泉美地城456套新房,仅8人摇号。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: white;">,中标率高达5700%</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-backh="253" data-backw="216" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWUEoiafoXEQbkKvaAu0kLwYKmNnCGticjk93hqExHnNAgibmMsBSc4Xbdg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWGv2oAgmqS3ajY6H722HNu48dJUicYNxXAXq2LG9wtVqx4nnbWLmoEhw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="660.431654676259" data-cropx2="1080" data-cropy1="116.54676258992805" data-cropy2="607.9856115107914" data-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWovKZOiaS0csYSasNzlWIZJZh7gw4wd7kGEer7lmLG9BW8a8XzkOPgxA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.1714285714285715" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWovKZOiaS0csYSasNzlWIZJZh7gw4wd7kGEer7lmLG9BW8a8XzkOPgxA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="420" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">通过周期模型,看成都的市场温度变化</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">——</span></strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWDnBVBSvJ6fk4lTic2sCtxbth3KdFFT4moId2w0qHl38xrnCjWx4YSZg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="white-space: normal;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2016年,市场信心不足,公积金年限额度提高,同年9月,市场周期触底反弹,成交均价较8月大幅上涨9%。<br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><img class="" data-backh="228" data-backw="176" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWyoyvuWaDk8ic5UB63ibYAWQP0qeczWrN4JSeWiaGwV6VVm6XU0deZI2aA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWDnBVBSvJ6fk4lTic2sCtxbth3KdFFT4moId2w0qHl38xrnCjWx4YSZg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="28.854961832061072" data-cropx2="391.60305343511453" data-cropy1="115.41984732824429" data-cropy2="585.3435114503817" data-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWRPSvsndwKqSpRbOhkTIJAepZEeIDjibNfKjDlhpibbzK9xcBcOgfOAbw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.2947658402203857" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWRPSvsndwKqSpRbOhkTIJAepZEeIDjibNfKjDlhpibbzK9xcBcOgfOAbw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="363" style="white-space: normal;width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2017年,成都市场进入上行通道,政策收紧,同年4月,金茂在武侯区以17160元/m²刷新成都楼面价,9月,新城控股在成都远郊仁寿以6264元楼面价夺得仁寿地王桂冠。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><img class="" data-backh="235" data-backw="169" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYW1NDQKm2nmL06ec1NGAPqLf6iczRzAbictZbLicNEP3hpI3icVILnJTvqqg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWDnBVBSvJ6fk4lTic2sCtxbth3KdFFT4moId2w0qHl38xrnCjWx4YSZg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="391.60305343511453" data-cropx2="739.9236641221374" data-cropy1="113.3587786259542" data-cropy2="597.7099236641221" data-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWOhDsQHLcwVcDGYO6XZWicaN33t1icPHow5qKuKnakdJ3XUZVgGhW7eRQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.3908045977011494" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWOhDsQHLcwVcDGYO6XZWicaN33t1icPHow5qKuKnakdJ3XUZVgGhW7eRQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="348" style="white-space: normal;width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2018年,周期下行,同年12月,土拍爆冷,热门板块怡心湖两宗地微溢价成交,其余均底价成交。</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-backh="205" data-backw="167" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWaL7iboIrNhiaYgl484gEyumOCFJIpFRNia2pBPN0Ne1E8lntUcFA1RPZA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWDnBVBSvJ6fk4lTic2sCtxbth3KdFFT4moId2w0qHl38xrnCjWx4YSZg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="735.8015267175573" data-cropx2="1080" data-cropy1="109.23664122137406" data-cropy2="533.8167938931298" data-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWgZvjfGl9BUkUvEaEkyxULicQsc1OI1g78cSKxGlZp2iahr4YdzrNuGCQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.228985507246377" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWgZvjfGl9BUkUvEaEkyxULicQsc1OI1g78cSKxGlZp2iahr4YdzrNuGCQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="345" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 14px;"><strong>量化感知市场温度,不仅可以给我们提供判断依据、行动指导——</strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 14px;">1、弱牛,建仓</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">——在市场信心探底回升期,坚决加杠杆和拿地,为下阶段的销售期准备</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 14px;">2、强牛,出货</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">——在市场信心持续上扬期,积极涨价出货,坚决平价去死库存,尤其是商办车位等非住宅类的死库存</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 14px;">3、弱熊,对冲</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">——在市场信心高位回落期,把握其它弱牛期区域的土地投资机会,并快速去化剩余产品</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 14px;">4、强熊,蓄势</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">——在市场信心持续下落期,争取本区域的并购机会,积极关注核心城市或核心区域或核心地段的投资机会,并为下一轮投资期展开融资准备</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWDQNBnu1ctRK2ziamHVFCAmgwiaCfsqceAPrkbXnzicjYBQJo69HNYUiaHg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 14px;">更进一步,还可以量化预测未来的时间节点。</span></strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">以深圳为例,通过周期的预测分析,下一个拿地建仓期是2019年11月-2020年4月,销售出货期2020年5月-12月。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWhJjjSqFDftoDnhBxo6xfYwdWcE5aU4sPtcg9nn7SaLiaY1KC2e34T6w/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="white-space: normal;" /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">同理,预测成都全市下一个拿地建仓期,在2019年11月-2020年6月,销售出货期是2020年7月-2021年4月。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6r3sfY7ICibYcp4ibLGRZDYWibgtzib0HfwXkRHjZQpwLsF47QTXQBdeD4IRXlnES2slXpeTyfZ0KVtg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></p><p><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">—— 小结 ——</span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">那么有了周期模型,我们是不是可以100%预测到未来?</span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这就要回到最开始的问题——明天会不会下雨?尽管我们是清明时节在南方,但我们的正确依旧只有70%,再高也不能达到100%。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">因为未来是不可测的。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">你对一件事情再了解,通过量化计算,也只能预测大概率发生的事情,但在现实中,永远有小概率事情发生。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">如此,我们为什么又要做周期模型呢——</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 14px;">未来虽然不可测,但趋势却可以监控。当节点来临时,周期模型,可以帮助你比别人先看到未来。</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">—— END ——</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 27.2px;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">猜你想再看<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 27.2px;widows: 1;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 27.2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">城市:</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831649&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=191239418c15b0c6f395c843415da5fd&amp;chksm=8351793eb426f028970ac64031955167bfde997cdc96375bfb3bce25b5076f1458e11be2be27&amp;token=217203186&amp;lang=zh_CN&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">徐州</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831649&amp;idx=4&amp;sn=3a8acfb05820bbd38cd7b15a58e92ec9&amp;chksm=8351793eb426f028dfd96ec6ffc5239a84aaf25b6643813aa6b4a597b9a3215e7ab25e2b4eaf&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">宿迁</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831649&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=1fcdc66fac79d5ba9504bc24314a14f9&amp;chksm=8351793eb426f02829eef9ba1dfcb8c3e91edb05d3c1d34c548b82f618928834f1da5907d2e7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">淮北</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831649&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=18d65f24543e71ff6bc70eb1cb0a7bde&amp;chksm=8351793eb426f028b98805f0f7555bfc57e3aefe6c76e7ca8df0369ad5dcc4a593a011a9b029&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">唐山</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831649&amp;idx=5&amp;sn=9f550e5d1f6bd3becc92df723adedd61&amp;chksm=8351793eb426f0289523b13ecd4fcb3d227a3cb259a09e504d388ace5a5eb25ece3aecfe8d46&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">天津</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831491&amp;idx=4&amp;sn=4c4fb5ce9d25c1fe6012d719c5878c82&amp;chksm=8351799cb426f08a8a6b9f35c8db84ceac56401b6da4a6429d1bc5e3339251db372a5045c242&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">深汕</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=5&amp;sn=c2d8bae147d4a2d86ec992c50c39ddad&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a50b1acbe92593aabba12c3fb95e9966d93ecad99918dbcf654b9ce767405&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">哈尔滨</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831491&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=1e787f725d62f227dbc6c33d0b9ea3eb&amp;chksm=8351799cb426f08accd8896c160b37e7a4436d21e1fbf2cc596763115db5ef6e04dc914ce478&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">兰州</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=4&amp;sn=048088acd651254d77cc238d71b1af04&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a7c36e33460f244db68a856502151c73820b314470b7e24412b9a8b6dcd5b&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">常德</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831491&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=b6295a149a38a026e886d81014b568f3&amp;chksm=8351799cb426f08a8a8d7adbd8721956fd91c59be8bd1ec35d4f9963a11e7e67bee72cd49405&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">南宁</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=8&amp;sn=0efaff09c26e604d7aa5c29376c129ad&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07abb37dd11a0cfe941868be2b543feebf288460418759254327292658947ae&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">桂林</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=12f08ffb076544edcbc24e91bc3d87d7&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a1cd4530a9033d462d4732c500dcdda723bdc3a87f4d55f1c62f657a4cb77&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">柳州</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=6&amp;sn=0a89c4ab17039cec25754aa111b87308&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a6fdc14a1c0e877928f2fa46798a8b592b2b2023ad1c65081bbc80b2fafad&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">蚌埠</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=7&amp;sn=1bc72e377ffc3b621c2886d68c437515&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07adc8c50a3e1409197892c508ad9c27a6b52f8e4dde12740baf5674f5a7fa6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">合肥</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831491&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=10e3d481f7fd0ff46dafe2648cd3ddfb&amp;chksm=8351799cb426f08a5118705d6b85487fa97dd013a2aee842be719ee13086aab8dee370b54185&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">南京</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9ffda0c7d9667d6700966a8bab12eccf&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a4e94a2471b2d59264ed4460e0567c63095fad9c5704541a546d7bc23584a&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">上海临港</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831065&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2ffb60d98d02ebcab655c55d34d0acbf&amp;chksm=83517746b426fe509cc721e0e3acf05fd1f60b8695dc3b66c08c0a7aa917e7471b013b02c2c2&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box 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!important;">昆明</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830295&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f680ffa2ddf52783e9a7730971520d48&amp;chksm=83517248b426fb5e0efc1e5c62d15b173e4d23ab7aafaab82c6ce861e98d96271fe5dc7db798&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">嘉兴</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830278&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8441ac780477cd9def8d4e9d7866f143&amp;chksm=83517259b426fb4f93ff50f1c07d7b830f16ec4d1e0c23f64ef15a78a056ae301274ffbb8ec3&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">重庆</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830196&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7a599cf338734c1d41c6fa16005b1641&amp;chksm=835172ebb426fbfdda6873adbeddc124ae670de675a7c36d11977106150a1d924572ea70f299&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">成都</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830221&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f5994dbfe9fa00ffce4b5be1a69f3244&amp;chksm=83517292b426fb8419e771cf48ea94de01fc7dc909b4e8c2759c6423b8be6080bc5bd1c248cc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">深圳</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=cd78421e4f2e724f552f8eefc65e0236&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa26aed46ed566bc1f8ffa11498370fed14fa9d0690795a3eff5a186c63a03d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">上海</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829512&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=421f2b766d75009082de8fc1e81cd8d2&amp;chksm=83517157b426f84197c93fd852a3e3f93019c9d81e099784ad0aa09f326ca9dd33a0edb7cfd7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">珠三角</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829480&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c77baf137c109f1017170a708548d37b&amp;chksm=835171b7b426f8a1d942708988b8f4bd875366f5928d1db99470ccad6958aa0c8cd47b292c23&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">雄安新区</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=401964235&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8839375241e6a7e69f49aec108ca1ad6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">无锡</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=203026648&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=466dca69ff3eb746e2e5c21831d57f0f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">北京</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 27.2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">热点:</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831957&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=a889b497d60264ef90aea585e4d4556f&amp;chksm=83517bcab426f2dc5e2b3778bc8e8834b453c4eac98c490ebeb525c4a5b01093fe602418b8fb&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">美国地产</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831073&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b9e813dced68e2e1397bd2cc2b6d05c7&amp;chksm=8351777eb426fe68993e996d9312897701ad0e93a7703c5d719dc20ebf09a1b0c6715f502e4d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">长租公寓</span></a><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830578&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=73f5149b299d5ce19a433c365eedee83&amp;chksm=8351756db426fc7b173558a1765830766ec5f7fb387e652250f10a106ef6490821f809722cfb&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">中美贸易战</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830503&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2fae9eec64a6ed71f0c4ee9e4e9bafe7&amp;chksm=835175b8b426fcaec41bb2a484ef939ac78474c77acde2d96a6f7f8b61a0f4ade630c13e7f90&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">粤港澳</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830398&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=ffd40b9cb7730bd712d8f053280d6fa9&amp;chksm=83517221b426fb37e97b45db61547227724f5a09e6a2a0484a55475066ac41fc1b0165954d0d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">万科商业</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830360&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=3cea24af7ebf848fde74c52538f111e5&amp;chksm=83517207b426fb11a1ae1c301117e9626ba09012aa9d8b4d8f722e45423ecb7e63987f50bec5&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2018年走势</a>&nbsp;|<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">专业:</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831987&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8553537eb64de48a9b7eb16564fe8988&amp;chksm=83517becb426f2fa0c63ef59ace65085334609b45795331170f0edb7f455d154c06d53aa85f7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">穿越熊市</a></span>&nbsp;<span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;">|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831371&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9b15fe316680aabc64e2b7c37e5767d8&amp;chksm=83517614b426ff0229de8ab490c6a7fb33f9e7de34bae145abd3565818c5965c1eca5a4b0029&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">地产研报</a>&nbsp;</span>|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831103&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6ae2c7ba214abd19c76ed907399b77b7&amp;chksm=83517760b426fe767422812a59d53a334c00664a2cc146d59a076bc0e59a062f518c7df00861&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">投资</a>&nbsp;|<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831043&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=dcae4bb0d9c69a6aefeb48f7447dff10&amp;chksm=8351775cb426fe4a32f43b1fe3a11ebffb7d381291adc0746d6d0ed9f3efb882617e0407aa10&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;思考</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830765&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=d21dbefeb5e1aea1599bcec8fae7a7d4&amp;chksm=835174b2b426fda4b66776ffb3da368f2b71e44233e17581d647b246e52aa53255140e3adac0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">客研</a><span style="max-width: 100%;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830698&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=27ffa7f097500e9e7fb23f99fdce51ef&amp;chksm=835174f5b426fde3854d2eec6dc6fd1c0c182faa0218d1b0ce833e50c860c23b062b88f914e0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">高周转</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830656&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=dc61474f9d09133fcce2934476ea10c1&amp;chksm=835174dfb426fdc9575a9a316aef5c25d051f574d0cd96ae3d1cda189bca7c7b0b7447e403e4&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">房价预测</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830457&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=37a5c454028fb849c2c5fce3b3575756&amp;chksm=835175e6b426fcf07c9d8fdee249e33edf0ae7f5684be2290c3145624ad430d880a10a654ebd&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2018房地产报告</a>&nbsp;</span>|&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830201&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=1816623486b879233513443f1df6ec59&amp;chksm=835172e6b426fbf07aa0f023c3ff79ca1cf11606fc2f2b66cfe773222e3fa1df7f92affa90b6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">远郊定位&nbsp;</a>|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829710&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=58d632f4b07dc0796127ef5df605bb36&amp;chksm=83517091b426f9871fa25aed40ade8d757557347ecf505d8b9510645b5adcc6d703caed90b31&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">时势蓝图</a>&nbsp;|</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><section style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 1.5em;font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 27.2px;widows: 1;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: auto;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-color: rgb(71, 193, 168);width: 3em;text-align: center;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: inherit;font-size: 1em;text-decoration: inherit;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;border-radius: 50%;width: 3em;height: 3em;line-height: 3.5em;overflow: hidden;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: middle;background-color: rgb(71, 193, 168);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">更多</span></section></section><section style="margin: -0.92em auto auto;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 0px;font-family: inherit;border-top: 3em solid rgb(71, 193, 168);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;border-right: 1.4em solid transparent !important;border-left: 1.4em solid transparent !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section></section></section><fieldset style="margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-width: 0px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 27.2px;border-color: currentcolor;border-style: none;border-width: 0px;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="padding: 0.3em 0.5em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);border-radius: 0.5em;text-align: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-weight: inherit;text-decoration: inherit;display: inline-block;box-shadow: rgb(165, 165, 165) 0.2em 0.2em 0.1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="padding: 0.3em 0.5em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 12px;border-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);border-radius: 0.5em;text-align: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-weight: inherit;text-decoration: inherit;display: inline-block;box-shadow: rgb(165, 165, 165) 0.2em 0.2em 0.1em;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">禾略中国:helue_China</span></p></span></fieldset><p style="font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 27.2px;widows: 1;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p><hr style="font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 27.2px;widows: 1;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /><p style="font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 27.2px;widows: 1;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">陪你想,陪你写,陪你玩</span></p><p style="font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 27.2px;widows: 1;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">商务联系:yumx@urasr.com<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 27.2px;widows: 1;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 27.2px;widows: 1;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class=" " data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="526" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="526" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1125" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4CH2Q70SCqaiaUnucGGwFRTYoW9SS84sCDbLB8PkBJ5zVxAEsHCJk2kcl2VmQUPibxsDcztjHmXfZQ/640?wx_fmt=png" width="526px" style="line-height: 1.6;text-indent: 32px;font-family: 宋体;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 526px !important;" /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p>

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