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研读“丁祖昱评楼市年度发布会”有感:这两年的房地产吧,「烦」「低」「惨」……接下来应该会好吧…… 原创 已修改 第1次修改 2025年01月02日 13时03分 郑永祥

发布于 2025-01-01

<p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358318" data-ratio="0.75" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1DnCAL5UVPiaDT8arBA0aSJXicnU9thDUkSbSnAJe4nHic93rxu8V96oSZw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1024" style="" /></p><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">2024年最后一天的下午,我认真学习了丁总的楼市年度发布会,获益良多,深受启发,在此借花献佛,与各位分享。</span></section><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;"></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">【以下为学习笔记】</span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="142" data-backw="578" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358320" data-ratio="0.24444444444444444" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1DtbrZfmDuaBfjaqCUhuhyOhk4A4OERonvQ4WicHViavZzfrGGmPic7kIkw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></p><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">从数据看,2024 年的房地产市场“不输当赢”:&nbsp;</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">2021年是房地产销售的最高点,之后持续下滑。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">2022年销售面积减少了24%,销售金额减少了27%。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">2023年继续下降,2024年还在进一步下跌。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">开发商的投资也在减少。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">从2021年的15万亿元高点,逐年下降到2024年预计的9.9万亿元。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">新建房屋的面积也在下降,特别是2022年和2023年降得很明显。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">2023年只有7.4亿平方米的新建面积,2024年也维持在这个水平。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">这三者之间有什么关系呢?很简单:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">当房子卖得不好时,开发商就不愿意火没能力继续投资建新房</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">投资少了,自然新建的房子就少了</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">如果新建的房子一直很少,将来可能会出现房源不足的问题(塞翁失马焉知非福)</span></section></li></ul><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">为什么会这样呢?主要有这些原因:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">政府对房地产市场进行了管控,但又没有管控住</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">经济发展放缓,人们收入预期下降,买房的意愿减少,换房的能力不足</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">人口老龄化,年轻人口减少,对新房的需求在下降</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">银行对房地产开发商的贷款听起来没有以前严格,但确实银行不是投行,“当铺思维”不允许他们在关键时刻力挽狂澜</span></section></li></ul><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">那么未来会怎样?</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">政策方面:如果市场持续不好,众所周知,政府可能会继续放宽一些限制,不过应该没什么,之前调控房价过快上涨就效果一般,现在防止房价继续下跌就能行?大家还是不要对政策抱有幻想,问题要靠自己解决,就扎扎实实回到当下,做好手上每一件事把</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">长远来看:房地产行业会更注重房子的质量,而不是一味追求数量,毕竟,建得多,库存也多,想在竞争中胜出,都得有自己的两把刷子才行,注重质量是最没有门槛的一把刷子,认真负责即可</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">不同城市的表现会有差异:大城市可能会先稳定下来,小城市可能还会继续调整,可能吧</span></section></li></ul><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">总的来说,中国的房地产市场正在经历一个重要的调整期。未来的发展将更多地依靠政府政策的引导和市场自身的调节,最最主要还是靠市场自身的调节,该杀的杀,该埋的埋。</span></section><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;"></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="143" data-backw="578" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358321" data-ratio="0.2462962962962963" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1DQd7TxHicRAcriaUtth99EAa6dlic31bXrP4MRGtokNer61VRcWW4TQX3A/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></p><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">左边的图表告诉我们:</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">从2019年到2021年,115个城市的房屋销售一直在增长。2021年卖得最好,卖出了9.5万亿的房子,总价值达到5.3亿。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">2022年开始走下坡,房屋销售降到了5.0万亿,总价值3.3亿。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">2023年继续下降,只卖出3.1万亿,总价值2.4万亿元。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">预计2024年会有些好转,可能会卖出4.7万亿,总价值约3.1万亿元。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">右边的图表显示每个月的销</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">售情况:</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">2021年上半年销售很好,后来开始下降。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">2022年大部分时间都在下降,但年底有所回升。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">2023年开始时很低迷,但慢慢好转,到年底销售明显增加。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">2024年在慢慢恢复增长,但债务可不等市场这慢慢的脚步,行业依然是风声鹤唳……</span></section><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;"></span></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="138" data-backw="578" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358326" data-ratio="0.2388888888888889" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1DgF14JY1dpOC93bqM08ToRzQdE4u2JgrvtzmY8ydfGyZT9yiamIzzsFg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 578.125px;" /></p><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">新房就是还没建好的房子,买的时候只能看图纸和沙盘,要等建好才能住进去。二手房则是已经建好的房子,买了就能直接住。</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">新房数量主要看开发商建多少,取决于土地供应和开发商的判断。</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">二手房数量主要看现有房主愿不愿意卖,以及市场上有多少人想买。</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">理性市场里,即便新房和二手房的房价一样,但</span><span style="font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);">新房价格会显得更贵一些,因为买家要承担房子还没建好的风险。</span><span style="font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);">二手房价格更好判断,因为房子实实在在摆在那里,甚至有时候因为卖家急于出售,价格也更好商量。</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">新房受政府监管比较严,比如限制房价、监管预售资金等,原则就是盯着“钱袋子”,但交付品质的监管却几乎没有,劳心劳力的事不干。</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">二手房主要受税费和贷款政策影响,政府和银行愿意让利的话,市场就会有反应。</span></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);">经济不稳定时,人们更愿意买现成的房子,因为觉得风险小。</span></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);">现在建房成本高,开发商资金虽然不紧张,基本上可以说是入不敷出,可能会少建新房,更多的选择是直接停建新房。</span></p><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">二手房更容易适应市场变化,特别是在新房不好买时更受欢迎,尤其行业下滑后,大家一方面是卷,另外一方面也要搞钱,卖个房子,中介渠道分销电商等等都来薅,价格其实挺混乱的,对大多数普通购房者来说,不管多少钱买到房子,总会有一点“被宰了”的感觉。</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">随着房价的稳步回落,劳苦大众获得缓慢入场机会,这也带来了持续的二手房交易需求。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);">二手房市场从2021年低谷逐渐恢复,预计2024年会卖出2.3亿平方米。</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">新房市场份额从2021年的60%降到2024年的41%,二手房则从40%升到59%。</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">人们更喜欢买二手房的原因:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="width: 577.539px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">风险小,不用担心房子建不好或者延期交付。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">价格实惠,价格更透明,还能讲价。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">方便快捷,买了就能住,不用等。</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">未来二手房市场会继续增长,成为房地产市场的主要部分(刚需首选)。市场信心恢复加上政策支持,交易量和价格都会稳定上涨。</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">新房市场需要改变来适应新形势(改善倒逼),开发商要在提高效率和降低成本的同时,提升质量和加快创新。可能还要改变销售方式,因为现在的购房者已经被各种杀猪盘教育过了,地产“杀客”模式还能走多远?</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">政府会根据市场情况调整政策,包括改变税费和贷款政策等,帮助房地产市场健康发展,但也要明白,山高皇帝远,政策制定者毕竟在庙堂之高,他们只有理论,而政策执行者沉浸在江湖之远,他们已经麻木。</span></section><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;"></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="146" data-backw="578" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358322" data-ratio="0.25277777777777777" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1DBJ6KEfOm1qIKhCIJNUre2pQIWRHLkOa208tWf0Xt7Uice1zGBrxicHZQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></p><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="143" data-backw="578" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358325" data-ratio="0.24814814814814815" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1DSBNOZEZGCOsz9BzYpvAZWMdEOWQXAXOLRVtnkVktTHVhdu8wX9qK9Q/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;width: 578.125px;" /></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">我们把城市按照房子的面积、价格和总成交额分成了几类:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">高端房市(豪宅市场):上海、深圳、广州、杭州</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">性价比高(价值之选):成都、西安、天津、青岛</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">价格实惠(经济型市场):重庆、武汉</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">让我们具体分析一下:</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">高端房市的特点:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">上海卖得最猛</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">北京第二,深圳第三,广州第五</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">这些城市房子单价高,说明确实是高端市场,虽然你在上海买 6 万一平米的房子会被开发商定义为刚需……</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">性价比较高的城市:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">成都卖得最多(成交面积最大),但总销金额不算特别高</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">西安和天津也是类似情况</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">这些城市的房子面积大,价格却不算太贵,过日子的性价比很好</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">实惠型市场:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">重庆和武汉的房子卖的面积不小,但价格相对较低,做开发商是真的不容易赚到什么大钱</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">适合普通购房者选择</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">未来发展预测:</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">高端市场:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">房价可能会继续保持高位</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">即使有政策调控,这些城市的房子仍会保持高端定位</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">整体市场一旦企稳,可能就会出【豪宅税】吧</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">性价比市场:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">房价适中且需求大,会继续吸引买房人</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">随着城市发展,这些地方的房子可能会升值</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">实惠市场:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">需要通过改善城市环境来吸引更多买房人</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">政府支持和经济发展会帮助房市变得更好<hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;"></span></section></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="140" data-backw="578" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358327" data-ratio="0.24259259259259258" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1DksqCwLcicF1UmbGLmiaPRnFU7xNRPmVb718udICzcM7Pw6IrI0eibXTYw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="136" data-backw="578" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358328" data-ratio="0.23425925925925925" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1DOBHt4rZrD9xiawFHbXIpjKI7kCxGlZRq0QvhV11LZAFN3prXYC02DPQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="136" data-backw="578" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358329" data-ratio="0.2351851851851852" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1D1sBA3BGz2hXdTrGicI3lCRpP2gxJkhWTH6YrSZwREF2D7mZzP8nDKzw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="131" data-backw="578" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358330" data-ratio="0.22685185185185186" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1DjJQibJnLG7mbrS7vLNYpJ9icKzkWsHnZb9afLnWkEjtuakzecakYian4w/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 578px;height: 131px;" /></p><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">首先,明确这一逻辑的含义:房地产市场的成交活跃度(即成交面积和成交金额)是投资、土地拍卖(土拍)和项目开工的先导指标。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">换句话说,当成交市场表现良好时,它会带动投资增加、土地拍卖市场活跃以及更多的项目开工。</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">让我们看看房地产市场的主要数据:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">房屋买卖情况:看市场有多热闹</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">土地交易情况:看土地市场好坏</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">房地产开发情况:看开发商的信心如何</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">房屋买卖市场分析:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">30个主要城市的二手房买卖在2022年减少,2023年开始好转,预计2024年会达到2.3亿平方米</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">2024年上海卖得最好,成交金额7455亿元(比去年增长22%),北京和深圳紧跟其后</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">大家不是不买房,是不买期房</span></section></li></ul><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">土地市场</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">分析:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">2024年买地最多的五个城市是:上海、北京、杭州、广州和西安,共占全国的22%</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">西安的土地面积最大(1828万平方米),其次是潍坊(1770万平方米)</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">虽然大城市表现不错,但整体来看土地市场在降温</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">房地产开发情况:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">30个主要城市中,84.6%的项目已开始建设</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">67.9%的房子已经开始卖,北上广深等大城市卖得比其他城市快很多</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">大多数项目都能赚钱,前景不错</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">总体情况:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">“新房+二手房”的整体房屋市场在回暖:从2022年开始,买房的人越来越多,市场信心一直在,二手房成交大幅增长,只是新房方面,烂尾房的雷太密集了,能收房的项目,质量和品质也是相当敷衍,买新房比买 A 股还坑,这都不是信心的问题,而是智商的问题了</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">土地市场在调整:虽然大城市还不错,但整体比较谨慎,主要也是因为没有钱,真的穷就得极致谨慎</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">开发商态度积极:很多项目都在建设和销售,你可以说他们对市场有信心,但熬到现在的开发商,哪一个不是打碎的牙齿往肚子里咽,不管有没有信心,都要保住工作,都要完成工作,都要唱响楼市光明论</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">未来趋势:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">市场会继续好转,跨年还是要说几句吉祥话,美好愿望</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">北上广深等大城市会继续领先,但不能确定是绝对领先还是相对领先</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">其他城市表现不一:有的会很好,因为政府终于不再对市场提供不必要的帮助,而有的需要政府加强帮助才能改善</span></section></li></ul><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">简单来说,房地产市场正在慢慢恢复。大城市的表现更好,其他城市各有差异。整体来看,市场正在向好的方向发展。</span></section><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;text-indent: 0em;"></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="148" data-backw="578" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358333" data-ratio="0.25555555555555554" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1DxKqiaicE4OIJtanmr3eX2obs5ItbDwPdtlJ64fQOnCYkD8oe5N3a0q2Q/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="146" data-backw="578" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358334" data-ratio="0.25277777777777777" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1Dj6myNiawTJicGe4M1dtQR10IibzqPEPwwRceJ40wbKndZIIEHdrsQykzw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358335" data-ratio="0.23148148148148148" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1DypO2pt2ibK8dSS0La8lq4fruw8PeRwtlvEa5fVHKKJXrejVZA7Aj70g/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358336" data-ratio="0.24351851851851852" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1DdO0yiao3L031Z1XRjndwOgTppW4ZoT0uWEYD9xFGeSxc0U6cDmzYhibA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="" /></p><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">百强销售情况</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">2020年是最好的一年,百强房企卖出了12万亿元</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">之后逐年下降,预计2024年只有4万亿元&nbsp;</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">整体趋势是在不断下滑</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">排行榜数据证明了百强不强,大家都是风口上的猪,飞上去了别得意,想好怎么软着陆,往下掉的也别泄气,脸别着地就还有机会</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">大型房企变化</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">年销售超过1000亿的房企数量变化很大</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">2020-2021年最多,有43家</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">到2024年预计只剩12家</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">说明以业绩来评价公司只是一种舍本逐末的假象</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">排行榜是毒药</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">企业类型分析</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">在前100名房企中,一半是民营企业</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">但在前10名中,民企只有2家&nbsp;</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">说明民营企业整体实力在减弱</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">融资情况:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">所有类型的企业融资都变难了</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">国企融资下降28%&nbsp;</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">民企融资下降17%&nbsp;</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">只有极少数公司能拿到更多资金</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">买地情况</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">大企业买地的钱越来越少</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">从2020年的4.48万亿降到2024年的1.08万亿</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">说明房企对买地越来越谨慎</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">不同企业买地对比:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">央企和民企都大幅减少买地</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">只有城投公司(政府背景)在增加买地</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">说明市场信心不足,政府信心也不足,“托底卖地“这事也称“掩耳盗铃”</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">现金和债务状况:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">房企手上的现金在减少</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">债务基本没变</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">有5家企业新出现还不起债的情况</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">总的来说:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">整个房地产行业还在降温</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">企业赚钱更难了&nbsp;</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">借钱也更难了</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">大家轻易不敢买地,除非是领导指示</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">即便政府出台更多支持政策也无济于事,终究只是隔岸观火</span></section></li></ul><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">这些变化说明房地产市场正在经历重大调整,企业需要想办法适应新形势才能生存下去。</span></section><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img js_insertlocalimg" data-imgfileid="502358337" data-ratio="1.5775" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1Dy3Uw5D9iaXic32k3PNFIicT8iafFrp9rKaphwKhkbrLoODrr8CpDmd7QJg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="800" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img js_insertlocalimg" data-imgfileid="502358338" data-ratio="1.5675" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1DFBLLX2a9rmfI0e6Vv8c1I98ARsC3jpZnETY8oGKXGfjVpZe1qT6zPQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="800" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img js_insertlocalimg" data-imgfileid="502358339" data-ratio="1.5671641791044777" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1D9xGFrxq3JNLdFpAEAiaHTxCDeyek4C3wXR1GNmnFhNA5IYeeAeic2YQg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="804" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img js_insertlocalimg" data-imgfileid="502358340" data-ratio="1.5528255528255528" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1Dib9djMNCuqhS1t44SB6dpgW6sU7cmTdyKqcpgm4ib5Zbtbicb7ibKkcYcQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="814" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358341" data-ratio="0.5876543209876544" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1DSGcCBoC01vvEyYzMMwOAHkxCDdorveJp2PgB5qkTE6KJBAcG805oLA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="810" style="" /></p><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">让我们来看看这些房地产项目的照片和数据,做个简单分析。</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">销售情况:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">中海臻昌府卖得最好,销售额270.6亿元</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">瑧湾汇和静安府西区分别卖了215.9亿元和215.5亿元</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">面积方面,这三个项目都在10万平方米左右</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">总的来说,这些项目都卖得不错,只是建设的规模体量都太小了,对于提高水泥钢筋和劳动人民的收入并没有什么帮助</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">房价水平:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">中海臻昌府每平方米214,000元,按 1 沪币 =&nbsp;6 人民币换算,其实也就是每平米35<span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;">,667元,和成都麓湖的价格神奇的保持了旗鼓相当</span></span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">瑧湾汇每平方米17,100元</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">静安府西区每平方米20,800元</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">可以看出「大腕」这部老电影的含金量有多高</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">开发商背景:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">主要是中海地产、中国金茂等国字号大公司</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">这些公司都很有实力,品牌知名度高。</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">项目特色:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">位置好:多在上海、深圳等大城市的市中心</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">创新设计:把住宅和商业结合在一起</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">高品质:用料讲究,设计现代,配备智能系统</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">市场和买家分析:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">随着有些人们的收入减少,买房的人越来越少,与此同时,有些人们的收入增加,这就显得买高档房的人越来越多了</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">一线城市的豪宅销售和价格都在上涨,说明城市之间的汇率波动加大了,「人民币」相对「沪币们」进一步加速贬值</span></section></li></ul><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;"></span><span style="font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;">总的来说,高端房地产市场很不错,<span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;">,有打脸“</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;">共同富</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;">裕“的</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;">嫌疑,</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;">在当前舆论环境下,</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;">考虑民</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;">间疾苦的感受,也要警惕</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;">“养肥了杀”的可能,</span>前景看着很好,实则暗藏杀机,</span><span style="font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;">开发商这茬赚到了要感恩,也是以前积下的福报,切不可以以此为常态,还是时时刻刻<span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;">关注</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;">市场变化,切实</span>提高产品质量,满足更多元的买家的需求。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"></span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">产品力方面:</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">丁总也为我们展示了不同城市的房地产项目及其特点。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">每个项目都有独特的卖点,从设计、位置到配套设施各具特色。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">现将分析要点整理如下:</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">项目设计与创新</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: square;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">高端设计:项目普遍采用现代化设计理念,突出高端和奢华特质。以中海臻昌府为例,其独特的建筑风格和精致的室内装修,树立了高端住宅的标杆。</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">产品创新:创新型住宅概念的引入,如"住宅+商业"模式,为居民提供全方位的生活体验,切合现代生活需求。</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">位置与配套设施</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: square;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">核心位置:项目多位于上海、深圳等城市核心区域,享有便捷的交通网络和丰富的配套资源。</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">便利设施:配套完善的高端购物中心、优质学校、医疗设施和休闲场所,全面提升居住品质。</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">客户定位与市场需求</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: square;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">高端客户群体:项目瞄准高净值人群,打造符合其生活方式和品味的居所。</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">差异化需求:提供多样化户型与面积选择,覆盖从首次置业到改善型购房者的各类需求。</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">营销与品牌建设</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: square;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">品牌影响力:中海地产、融创中国等大型房企凭借品牌实力和市场口碑,成功吸引高端客户。</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">营销策略:通过精准定位和有效营销,突出项目在地段、设计、品质等方面的优势,提升市场竞争力。</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">质量与细节</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: square;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">优质材料:采用高品质建材,确保住宅的耐久性和舒适度。</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">精工细作:精心打造室内装修细节,优化空间布局,提升整体居住体验。</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">可持续与环保</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: square;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">绿色建筑:采用环保材料和节能技术,响应可持续发展趋势,满足现代人的环保诉求。</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">生态社区:通过屋顶花园和垂直绿化等生态设计,营造优质社区环境。</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">综上所述,这些房地产项目在产品打造方面具有以下关键特点:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: square;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">高端设计与创新:</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">运用现代化设计理念提升产品魅力</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">优越位置与配套:</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">核心区位配合完善设施,强化竞争优势</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">精准客户定位:</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">聚焦高端群体,满足品质生活需求</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">品牌营销战略:</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">发挥品牌优势,实施精准营销</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">品质细节把控:</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">严选材料工艺,打造卓越产品</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">绿色可持续性:</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">注重环保设计,引领生态人居这些特点不仅助力项目在竞争激烈的房地产市场中脱颖而出,更为行业发展提供了宝贵经验。</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">最后,让我们建立一个产品力模型,对这些房地产项目进行系统性评分和排序,以便全面评估和比较各项目的整体实力。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">首先,明确【产品力】的定义:它是项目在市场上的综合竞争力,涵盖设计、位置、设施、品牌和客户满意度等多个维度。为了实现量化评估,我将设定关键指标并据此为每个项目打分。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">我选择以下指标进行全面评估:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: square;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">设计与创新:项目的建筑风格、室内设计和创新特点</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">位置与配套设施:项目的地理位置、交通连接和周边配套</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">品牌与声誉:开发商的品牌知名度和市场声誉</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">客户定位:目标客户群体及其需求满足程度</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">质量和细节:建筑材料、施工质量和细节处理</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">可持续性与环保:项目的环保理念和实践</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">市场表现:销售速度、价格表现和客户反馈</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">基于各指标对高端房地产项目成功的重要性,用专业直觉拍脑袋把权重分配如下:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: square;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">设计与创新:25%</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">位置与配套设施:20%</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">品牌与声誉:15%</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">客户定位:15%</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">质量和细节:15%</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">可持续性与环保:5%</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">市场表现:10%</span></section></li></ul><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">基于现有图片和数据,我将对每个项目在各指标上进行10分制评分。由于部分项目细节有限,评分将基于已有分析和合理推测,这部分主要靠 AI 完成,如果评分和你的主观感受有偏差,请怼 AI。</span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="205" data-backw="578" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358356" data-ratio="0.35462962962962963" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG71fIbHkvGdcMJtoO7ryFnp19vr5VObUEaZz7Z1kkBWqR6pk2lgWyHZfia4jTfgrc6BBs92W1C4icOg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></p><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">注:评分基于现有数据分析,实际表现可能需要更详细信息支撑。</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">按总分排序如下:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: square;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">中海臻昌府:8.14</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">龙湖源著:7.86</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">瑧湾汇:7.86</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">翠峰:7.64</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">中海云麓公馆:7.57</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">滨江盛悦:7.14</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">静安府西区:6.71</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">中建东湖星河:6.57</span></section></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"></span></section><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="139" data-backw="578" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358342" data-ratio="0.24074074074074073" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1DwP2L9H8RC0j97SwNxcGKTpqzqgBv6OqfWkdEbwQsfxQGT7oqM0KRCw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="349" data-backw="578" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358343" data-ratio="0.6037037037037037" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1Dvx8lfibBpVDNrCVKTRsIJgC2MFvNAV4J9uzxzWKNsbd9xlDM40q2HJQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></p><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">让我们逐一分析每个指标,看看它们如何反映市场的潜在回暖。</span></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">人均购房面积:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">高人均购房面积通常意味着更强的购房需求。&nbsp;</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">成都(1.67㎡/人)和西安(1.7㎡/人)的人均购房面积较高,表明需求强劲。</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">土地成交与商品房成交的差值:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">正差值(如西安的958万㎡)表明土地供应充足,预示未来供应增加。</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;"> 负差值(如上海的-243万㎡)表明土地供应紧张,可能限制未来的供应。</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">租售比:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">高租售比意味着房价相对较低,投资吸引力较高。</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">西安(2.3%)和天津(1.3%)的租售比较高,表明这些市场的房价较为合理。</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">消化周期:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">短消化周期表明库存压力较小,市场更健康。</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">合肥(广义消化周期12年,狭义2.4年)和成都(广义消化周期14年,狭义3.8年)的消化周期较短。</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">开盘去化率:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">高去化率表明新盘销售迅速,市场需求旺盛。</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">成都(74%)和杭州(51%)的去化率较高。</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">市场化拿地占比:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">高市场化拿地占比表明土地市场活跃,开发商信心强。</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">杭州(95%)和北京(72%)的市场化拿地占比较高。</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">拿地开盘盈利占比:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">高盈利占比表明开发商盈利状况良好,市场信心强。</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">西安(88%)和天津(95%)的盈利占比较高。</span></section></li></ul><p>为了综合这些指标,我将为每个城市计算一个综合评分,时间紧迫,简单粗暴假设每个指标的权重相等吧。</p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="298" data-backw="578" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358345" data-ratio="0.5148148148148148" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1DYBYqLHWEMcWjbkibjPhEopJ8XzmUZ14sBOxiaT8x8VG2pZFxrWDavVMA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></p><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">根据上述数据,我们可以对每个城市进行综合评估,以确定其市场回暖的潜力。让我们为每个指标设定一个简单的评分标准,基于其数值的高低:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><li style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">人均购房面积:越高越好</span></section></li><li style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">土地成交-商品房成交:正数更好</span></section></li><li style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">租售比:越高越好</span></section></li><li style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">广义消化周期:越短越好</span></section></li><li style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">狭义消化周期:越短越好</span></section></li><li style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">开盘去化率:越高越好</span></section></li><li style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">市场化拿地占比:越高越好</span></section></li><li style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">拿地开盘盈利占比:越高越好</span></section></li></ul><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">接下来,我们将对每个城市在每个指标上进行排名<span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;">(1为最佳)</span>。最后,将各指标的得分相加,总得分越低,表明该城市越有可能率先回暖。</span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="316" data-backw="578" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="502358346" data-ratio="0.5472222222222223" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5zc47ricZdFzp04bmmeBI1DJjziaqwLK0LbJfSQzhc5ZQHfWX7n9zjmV5iauSXxN4Nk1ibDiaibH3Ax2ng/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">根据总得分,西安以20分位居榜首,其次是杭州(23分)和成都(30分)。这表明这些城市在多个指标上表现优异,具备率先回暖的潜力。</span></p><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">西安表现最好:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">房价比较合理</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">土地供应充足</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">开发商能赚到钱</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">市场整体健康</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">杭州紧随其后:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">购房需求强</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">开发商积极买地</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">新房销售不错</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">成都也很有潜力:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">老百姓买房积极性最高</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">新房卖得特别快</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">就是土地供应有点紧张</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">上海和北京:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">整体市场不错</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">但房子可能有点多,需要时间消化</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">深圳:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">开发商买地积极</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">能赚钱</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">但其他方面表现一般</span></section></li></ul><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">合肥:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">各方面表现中规中矩</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">房子卖得挺快</span></section></li></ul><p><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">总的来说,西安、杭州和成都最有希望先恢复活力。</span><span style="font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);">这三个城市的共同特点是:</span></p><p><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"></span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">老百姓愿意买房,开发商积极性高,而且房子不会积压太多。</span></p><p><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"></span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">这些都是市场向好的重要信号。</span></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(255, 127, 170);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 20px;">2025 年,大家要有信心,因为,扪心自问,你们除了信心,还有什么?</span></p><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;"></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;"></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;"></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;"></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: mp-quote, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;"></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;"></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;"></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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