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硫化物一统江湖!全固态电池路线之争落幕

发布于 2025-09-08

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="B8nQJUfae2" style="" data-dir-key="B8nQJUfae2"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">一、行业背景与驱动因素</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">技术替代需求</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">传统锂离子电池面临能量密度瓶颈(逼近理论极限)和安全隐患(电解液易燃),固态电池凭借</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">高安全性</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(热稳定性提升300%)、</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">高能量密度</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(理论值500Wh/kg)和</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">简化结构</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(省去隔膜/电解液)成为下一代电池技术方向。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策支持</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:中国形成“中央定调+地方试点”体系,工信部要求2027年前打造3-5家全球龙头企业,上海/珠海等地规划2030年建成完整产业链。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">应用场景拓展</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新能源汽车</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:东风/蔚来/赛力斯已实现半固态电池装车,丰田/宝马/奔驰规划2025-2030年推出全固态电池车型。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">低空经济</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:eVTOL飞行器要求电池能量密度≥400Wh/kg(如亿航智能固态电池续航提升60%-90%),政策推动2024年400Wh/kg级航空锂电池量产</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="l2zmu-v2fC" style="" data-dir-key="l2zmu-v2fC"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">二、固态电解质技术路线对比</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><table style="min-width:345px;"><tbody><tr style=""><th data-colwidth="96" style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">技术路线</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th><th style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">代表材料</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th><th data-colwidth="110" style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">优势</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th><th data-colwidth="89" style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">瓶颈</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th><th style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">产业化进展</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th></tr><tr style=""><td data-colwidth="96" style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">硫化物</span></span></strong></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">Li₆PS₅Cl, Li₁₀GeP₂S₁₂</span></span></span></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="110" style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">离子电导率最高(10⁻³~10⁻² S/cm)</span></span></span></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="89" style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">水氧敏感性高,易产生H₂S</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">日韩主导(丰田/松下),宁德时代/蜂巢能源布局;赣锋锂业/光华科技量产硫化锂&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td data-colwidth="96" style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">氧化物</span></span></strong></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">LLZO, LATP</span></span></span></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="110" style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">稳定性强,电化学窗口宽(>5V)</span></span></span></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="89" style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">界面阻抗高,加工性能差</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">清陶能源/贝特瑞量产LLZO/LATP;卫蓝新能源半固态电池装车&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td data-colwidth="96" style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">聚合物</span></span></strong></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">PEO, PVDF</span></span></span></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="110" style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">柔韧性好,易加工</span></span></span></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="89" style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">室温离子电导率低(<10⁻⁴ S/cm)</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">法国Bolloré量产;天赐材料/恩捷股份研发中</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td data-colwidth="96" style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">卤化物</span></span></strong></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">Li₃YCl₆</span></span></span></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="110" style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">成本低,兼容高压正极</span></span></span></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="89" style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">耐潮性差,含稀土元素成本高&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 170.8px;min-width: 170.8px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">亿纬锂能技术储备;实验室阶段为主</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><section data-mpa-md-key="blockquote" style="border-left:3px solid #DBDBDB;padding-left:12px;margin-bottom: 16px;" data-mpa-action-id="mfasdlbb22so" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><section><section data-mpa-md-content="t" style="margin:0;padding:0;font-size:15px;color:rgba(0,0,0,0.55);" data-mpa-md-action-id="mfasdlao1mkt"><span leaf="">趋势:全固态电池聚焦硫化物路线(全球企业选择占比38%),中国规划2027年实现硫化物全固态电池小规模量产。</span></section></section></section><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="iA8QlemB-E" style="" data-dir-key="iA8QlemB-E"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">三、供应链关键环节</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心原材料</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">硫化锂</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:硫化物电解质必备材料(成本占比82%),纯度要求>99.9%。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100044767" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnibvXV3icCunbLOBibwCvXbibz9Zm8B8TsfNPE6Q2ibKVSHdmTqh8qwBquoG1Dbjibn9E0uqYlosJznX5w/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section><figure></figure><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">制备工艺:碳热还原法成本最低(4.65万元/吨),赣锋锂业/天齐锂业布局量产。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">氧化锆</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:氧化物电解质关键材料(占LLZO成本25%),国瓷材料/东方锆业主导供应。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">材料成本对比</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:硫化物>卤化物(4.1万元/吨)>氧化物(1.5万元/吨)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">成膜工艺</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">湿法工艺</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(主流):溶剂成膜,但残留溶剂降低电导率。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">干法工艺</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(趋势):无溶剂直接压膜(如恩捷股份70T压力设备),成本降10%以上,适配硫化物/卤化物。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="Mft1pb1zGO" style="" data-dir-key="Mft1pb1zGO"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">四、产业化进程与公司布局</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">电池企业规划</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">宁德时代</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2024年交付半固态电池(CTSC-1,350-400Wh/kg)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">比亚迪</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2025年量产硫化物全固态电池(BladeSolid1.0,400-450Wh/kg)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100044768" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnibvXV3icCunbLOBibwCvXbibzJIibv0b10PfqDLgsAIkB337ia84nPhPcMxVyFvV3jtnooPy3A4PHWTXA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section><figure></figure><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">清陶能源</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2025年Q1量产氧化物全固态电池(QTB-100,420-480Wh/kg)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">材料企业突破</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><table style="min-width:338px;"><tbody><tr style=""><th data-colwidth="122" style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">公司</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th><th data-colwidth="191" style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">布局重点</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th><th style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">进展</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th></tr><tr style=""><td data-colwidth="122" style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">上海洗霸</span></span></span></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="191" style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">氧化物/硫化物粉体</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">收购有研稀土硫化锂资产,供货26家客户&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td data-colwidth="122" style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">天赐材料</span></span></span></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="191" style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">硫化物电解质&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">实验室公斤级生产,2027年目标千吨级产线&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td data-colwidth="122" style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">厦钨新能</span></span></span></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="191" style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">低残碱LLZO、高纯硫化锂</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">开发第三代LLZO,用于正极包覆</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td data-colwidth="122" style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">恩捷股份</span></span></span></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="191" style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">硫化物电解质膜&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">实现卷对卷生产,小批量供货&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td data-colwidth="122" style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">华盛锂电&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="191" style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">高纯硫化锂/Li₆PS₅Cl</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">离子电导率达5.57mS/cm&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="5sQpzU1hI9" style="" data-dir-key="5sQpzU1hI9"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">五、发展路径与时间表</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">技术演进</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">半固态过渡</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2023-2025年氧化物/聚合物混合电解质装车(能量密度300-400Wh/kg)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">全固态突破</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2025-2027年:第一代硫化物全固态电池(石墨负极,200-300Wh/kg)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2027-2030年:第二代高硅负极电池(400Wh/kg)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2030年后:锂负极电池(500Wh/kg)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">产能预测</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中国固态电池出货量:2024年7GWh → 2028年30GWh(CAGR 44%)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">结论</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:固态电池电解质行业处于产业化前夕,</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">硫化物路线</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">成为全固态电池主流选择,硫化锂材料及干法成膜工艺是供应链突破关键。政策支持、车企装车计划及低空经济需求将驱动市场2025-2027年进入快速增长期。</span></span></span></span></p><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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