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碎碎念直播回顾 | 2022年一季度宏观数据解读(上)

发布于 2022-05-13

<section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;" data-mpa-powered-by="yiban.io"><span style="font-size: 36px;"><strong>01</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>拉动经济增长的三驾马车</strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">很多人会觉得一季度的指标可能有点怪。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">事实上,我们细看统计局的指标——在2019年之前,社会销售品零售总额、城镇固投、出口金额累计同比,基本上都在正负零之间,整体出口比较稳定。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">到2020年疫情爆发,消费、固投、出口累计同比都立刻下跌,整体处于一个低位,可以理解为经济基本上是负增长。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.4294377067254686" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5wFuk3mic83Xy7IDiaK1Smxv5Dvb94qicYVekUicYs8GjqicWIl0uEjwKbsCkRxYuYeshT19ic3ZsM3wsQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1814" /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">红线:社会消费品零售总额(累计同比)<br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">黄线:城镇固投完成额(累计同比)<br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">蓝线:出口金额(累计同比)</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>出口过热</strong></span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">后来疫情扩散到全球,每个国家应对的政策不同,中国调整得很快,出口增长较高,当然也是因为之前的基数比较低(出口金额累计同比最低的时候,2020年3月,-13%;最高的时候,2021年3月,49%)。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">进一步分析,从2021年2月开始,消费、固投、出口的增速突飞猛进。到2022年2月,累计同比也有超过10%的增长,意味着出口还是在一个高位。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">我们做个多项式拟合的趋势线,简单(偷懒)预判一下,可以看到出口从2021年7月份开始下降,到现在下降趋势趋缓。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>消费低迷</strong></span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">再看2022年1季度的社会消费,基本低于2019年的全年水平,整体社会消费品的零售总额是有问题的,但从趋势上来看,现阶段已经开始触底反弹。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">当然这个多项式的预测不是特别准,它只能告诉你趋势的变化,未来如果出现一些不确定的事件,也会影响趋势线的走向。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>固投相对稳定</strong></span><br /></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">自2021年2月开始,固投也是一路下降,到2021年四季度,基本上达到一个历史平均水平,然后出现反弹。<br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>综合出口、消费、固投,目前我们的经济情况,出口过热,消费低迷,基建稳定挣扎。</strong><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 36px;"><strong>02</strong></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>国内外消费</strong></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><br /></strong></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 16px;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.40783664459161145" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5QTzlIhOgy59pRnUXvAHw1aYG2diamjQaib4huWqF9icE8VTUqTia6icIweKHYCVbr5qCnAqoPwX3E1zg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1812" /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">黄线:社会消费品零售总额-当月同比增长(%)<br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">红线:进口金额-当月同比<br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">蓝线:出口金额-当月同比</span><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;"><br style="white-space: normal;" /></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>国内消费总量见顶,需供给侧改革</strong></span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">从2021年3月开始,社会消费品零售总额当月同比(黄线)持续下滑,意味着我们国家社会销售品零售总额增速越来越低,即它可能接近一个总量见顶的状态。<br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">可以从两方面去解读这种状态,一方面,可能是大家的消费力到了一定的瓶颈阶段,或消费意愿到了一定的饱和阶段;另一方面还有一种可能,现在生产的商品,并不符合大家想要消费的东西,也就是我们常说的供给侧改革。这个苗头可以从过去几年,中国人在国外的消费不断攀升当中参见一二。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">上一代生产的商品,消费者对其的需求越来越接近一个极限。对于消费者的新需求,国内商品暂时无法满足,所以就变成从海外的渠道获得满足。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">疫情爆发之后,国际旅游几近停摆,国际快递也大受影响,在这种状况下,新国货、新品牌、新品类都纷纷冒头,因为确实有这个机会。正在转行,或考虑转行的地产人,都可以考虑新的消费品类这一块的机会,<strong>关键是消费升级的新的消费品类,消费升级对生产者是有要求的——能做出更好的东西。</strong><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>进出口趋势上涨,但出口质量不高</strong></span><br /></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">2021年11月开始,进口金额当月同比(红线)出现大幅下降,但从趋势线(红色虚线)来看,自2020年8月,进口有一个大幅的提升。<strong>从进口数据明细来看,我们进口的很多东西都是芯片、铁矿石、美国农产品等。<br /></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>过去两年,大宗商品价格涨得很快,而芯片又被垄断,对我国并不是很友好。</strong><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">再看出口(蓝线),2021年9月开始,出现大幅下降,但从趋势线(蓝色虚线)来看,自2020年8月,出口有一个大幅的提升,但整体还是没有进口猛。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">正如前文提到的,我们国家的口量非常大,但对比进口,出口的质量如何就有待商榷。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br />就像房地产2021年规模接近20万亿,但行业的利润率很低,地产开发的利润基本都被上游拿走了,房企的上游有两个,一个是资方,一个是土地方。土地方基本就是政府,资方就是各种各样的金融机构或者老板。在这种情况下,回到房企本身,他们的利润都很低,甚至可能会出现亏损。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">如果说我们的出口量很大,但基本上又一直亏钱的话,可能这种出口是不值得的,因为我们付出了很多劳动。也就是说,<strong>从目前来看,整个出口的质量并不是特别高。</strong><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>经济质量有待提升</strong></span><br /></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">虽然现在提倡“双循环”,但我们对内循环的消费端仍旧没有起来,倒不是因为消费者经济实力不足,而可能是因为供给侧不能满足消费者的需求,这当然是一个机会,但怎么去做,从短期来看,仍是个问题。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">再看进出口,虽然量冲得非常高,带动GDP的增长,但GDP增长的质量好不好?经济发展的质量好不好?利润好不好?这些都是我们目前面临的巨大的问题。<br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">很多人会讨论疫情的问题,房地产的问题,都会说这些事件如何影响经济,但大部分人都在关注数量,而经济质量怎么样?事实上,跟我们每个人的生活质量和财富最相关的,反而是经济质量。<strong>现在看来,我们整体的经济质量都有待提升。</strong></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 36px;"><strong>03</strong></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>外需下降,地产行情惨淡</strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.42039935240151105" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG44Xrjkgltict17Y9SF2Y1lribwkGv8O4QbG8RlTI1V9ZWWKEYB5p7P8UXmqWKEOzxBQU5R9Q4elyag/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1853" /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">红线:PMI:新出口订单<br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">黄线:出口金额:当月同比<br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">蓝柱子:贸易顺差:当月值</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">再来看整个出口细项的数据,比如PMI:新出口订单(红线),现在基本上在一个历史高位,但有一个下降的趋势(红色虚线)。PMI实际上是一个调研形成的数据,属于定性研究,代表一种信心。<br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">出口贸易顺差:当月值的趋势线(蓝色虚线),低点在2018年,上一个高点在2015年,最近的高点出现在2021年,现在正处于下降趋势。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">出口贸易顺差的增长,对进出口企业影响很大,尤其是纯粹依靠出口去盈利的企业,可能出口了很大的量,但由于核心技术受制于别人,比如芯片,就可能像小米那样,虽然规模很高,但实际上是亏损的,增收不增利。<br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>但资金密集型行业,一定会受益于贸易顺差的增长</strong>,大家仔细看出口贸易顺差趋势线(蓝色虚线),它跟房地产泡沫周期比较接近。地产上一波比较猛的时候差不多在2016年,最近这一波比较猛,也是在2021年上半年。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">这其实跟我国的货币机制相关,10年前高善文就讲了这么一个货币形成的机制——大家做进出口,把东西卖出去之后,企业家赚到的美元会被国家收起来,然后按国家规定转成人民币再到大家手里,而这批人民币在银行里可以放出5倍的杠杆,由此,货币就被扩张出来。<br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>受货币影响最大的就是地产行业,当货币扩张往下走的时候,大家就会感觉地产市场没那么好</strong>。比如在2008年的时候,贸易有一段时间都是逆差的,而这段时间我们的地产市场也变得很差。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">而2020年下半年到2021年上半年,地产市场那么好,其实也跟当时出口过热相关,大量赚取美元,给国内带来很多的资金流动性,从而带来一波地产行情。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">但现在面临两个问题,一方面,出口金额累计同比49%,这个增速是不可能持续的;另一方面,疫情爆发到现在,两年过去了,海外的国家也开始逐渐适应、放开,当时我们大概用了一年控制住,所以赚了一年的全球制造的红利,现在海外的生产逐渐恢复,<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>我国的进出口增速肯定是会下来的,所以<strong style="white-space: normal;">最近</strong>地产行情都很惨</strong>。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 36px;"><strong>04</strong></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>制造业、非制造业信心不足<br /></strong></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><br /></strong></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.4050564819795589" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6QqibLhc2XrVH3Ocn0ZVpo541VxxRe3hicgV8KhaV86ibHxx89s4wJRuOuK8947MgQhPAfz5Gzicl6vw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1859" style="" /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">紫线:PMI<br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">红线:五年高值<br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">绿线:五年低值<br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">灰线:五年均值</span></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">无论是制造业的PMI,还是非制造业的PMI,都跌破了荣枯线。意味着<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>现阶段,无论是制造业的还是非制造业的,大家其实都没多少信心。</strong></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">但其实很多的机会都来自于预期差,大家放低预期,或许能收获更好的结果。</section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 36px;"><strong>05</strong></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>宏观流动性</strong></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><br /></strong></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.43225419664268583" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4AXwnLB2afVSDfsVhG168boeVRXpGqXKRgTmnVnh1EeM16GUnpOGE4gq72cxPQ8MODYTFtx8S4ibQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1668" /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">红线:M2同比季度<br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">绿线:名义-国内生产总值当季值同比<br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">蓝线:全国居民人均可支配收入:名义累计同比<br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">灰柱子:M2%-名义GDP%</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>M2与GDP增速缺口走阔后半年,会出现地产市场繁荣</strong></span>。目前M2(红线)的趋势是下降的,而GDP(灰柱子,M2%-名义GDP%)在2020年一季度之后,开始触底反弹,从这点出发,<strong>如果GDP不谈质量,只讲数量的话,今年的目标5.5%实现难度不大,甚至6%都有可能</strong>。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>M2的下降,可以理解为我们的社会,真的进入了滞涨</strong>,经济停滞,但物价还在上涨。过去的存量资产,经营能力在下降,也就是说他的获利能力在下降。而现在的增量资产,比如新能源,增速还不错,但体量规模跟存量资产比还是较小。<br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">要解决经济滞涨的两个方案,一个是培育更多新的增长点,另一个是改造存量资产,提升资产的经营能力。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.4641434262948207" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4AXwnLB2afVSDfsVhG168b19NIH3tJek1Ff7ickZ6cOlwia4LuTPXiao8BulL9DBMHbJvgalEsz5MEQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1506" /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">红线:M2<br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">蓝线:M2同比增长率</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">至于如何从M2的走势,看地产行情的周期性涨跌——回看历史,2008-2009年,因为次贷危机地产行情都不好,而在2009年Q1-2010年Q1,M2同比季度(红线)来了一波拉升,同时带来一波房地产泡沫。从这个角度来看,<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>整个地产行情都在慢慢探底,大概到2023年年中回暖</strong></span>。<br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">看M2的历史走势及预测(灰线),<strong>M2同比增长率(蓝线)是往下走的</strong>,这个跟中国企业面临的问题相关——增收不增利,再加上账期延后,企业经营在无限消耗现金流,老板都会犹豫要不要去做经营贷款。<br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>从M2同比增长率的趋势(蓝色虚线),可以看出几个大的地产周期</strong>:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><p>2000年-2007年,M2同比增长趋势上行,地产周期也是走向繁荣复苏,股市、楼市基本在2007年下半年到顶;</p><p><br /></p></li><li><p>2007年-2019年,M2同比增长趋势下行,股市、楼市基本在2019年形成新一波上涨;</p><p><br /></p></li><li><p>到2022年5月,M2同比增长趋势仍在一个历史低位,但从趋势上来讲,开始回升,所以我们不用太悲观,只是说不会恢复得像以前那样快,发展和赚钱都可能比较难。</p><p><br /></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5401106500691563" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4AXwnLB2afVSDfsVhG168bstVZdCnViaDYdpHROewxYK3V7PJicw7IO3APGuhOUo5yyU5pY7ZnHLWA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1446" /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">红线:M2增速<br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">蓝线:社会融资规模存量增速</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">灰柱子:社融增速-M2增速</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">除了M2,我们会关注社融的情况,因为社融和房地产的相关性更强。虽然2012年地产融资被资本市场拒绝,但在债券、债市、包括信托,地产发展得非常快。<br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>现在的社融接近2010年的水平,在大规模收缩</strong>。中国的M2其实不是一个特别市场化的融资,基本上可以说M2代表国家的意志,社融其实是考虑了一部分的市场意志,用社融增速减去M2增速(灰色柱子),则更好的反映市场的融资能力,很明显,<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>我们现在的市场融资能力在下降,只能依靠政府去推动</strong></span>。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">市场化融资的压力在于我们的市场还很初级,没有能力做好资产评估和风控。我们能看到经济的数量,但很难看到数量背后的质量。<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>社会整体的金融能力和信用评价能力比较弱。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">当然这个问题也给我们带来新的机会,如何判断资产的合理价格,再去做评估和贷款,进而盘活优质资产。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5054545454545455" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4AXwnLB2afVSDfsVhG168bPiaibIzm3zmTnoP2p9Q5b1fMcYCVLmL5tRdcNd4vCibMDfMib0d2MfjjwA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1375" /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">红线:M1历史同比增速<br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">蓝线:M2同比增速</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">紫线:M1增速-M2增速多项式趋势线</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">蓝柱子:M1增速-M2增速</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">我们还做了关于<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>M1(红线)的预测:现在正处于“见底回升”的阶段</strong></span>,M1可以理解为流动性更好的资产,同时我们判断M1跟社融是一个正相关的关系,M1增速和M2增速的差值走势跟中国股市的大盘走势基本吻合。可以这么理解——2018年到2022年,这个差值都是复数,股市基本处于熊市,2022年下半年这个差值趋势(紫线)开始回升,<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>预计2023年股市将迎来牛市</strong></span>。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 36px;"><strong>06</strong></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>杠杆&amp;降准</strong></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><br /></strong></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.46274777853725224" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4AXwnLB2afVSDfsVhG168buric2CEg0TAdr1oZxBVhkvJ7X58HV2uyknFxXsRwr9NOUYuy6y1ea3Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1463" /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">红线:居民部门债务占GDP比重<br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">黄线:非金融企业部门债务占GDP比重</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">灰线:政府部门债务占GDP比重</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">杠杆率也很有意思,从2015年之后,政府(灰线)已经把债务转移给企业(黄线),政府的负债是最低的;居民的债务稳定上升(红线);非金融企业部门目前处于高位回落,可以理解为是一个减债的过程。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>政府加杠杆的空间很大</strong></span>,起码可以超过居民。那么这个杠杆可以加到哪里去?</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">从这个角度来看,中国的内陆城市是有很大的发展空间,沿海城市的发展主要是占了进出口的红利,现在进出口往下走,同时内陆城市,特别是中西部,他们的硬件标准是不够的,很多存量资产改造空间很大,政府加杠杆可以把力气花在这里。比如说水利工程、电网建设、自来水管道建设、污水处理、垃圾处理、道路改造、学校、医院的补充、交通大节点的补充、信息化建设等。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">由此,<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>在未来的10-30年,</strong><strong>我们还是很看好中西部地产市场</strong></span>。<br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.48441734417344173" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4AXwnLB2afVSDfsVhG168biaBaswGjp1e46hp4CwjvjsxW5UTZuLj2NPVuqZPd2NVLibYGYl1EQMeA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1476" style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">再看各部门杠杆率同比差值,居民(绿线)的杠杆,从2020年一季度开始,呈下降趋势,非金融企业部门(黄线)的杠杆,从2014年开始就一直是下降趋势,政府部门(蓝线)的杠杆,从2018年开始有稍微的抬升趋势。<br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>看起来好像是所有部门都在去杠杆,但完全去杠杆也意味着经济在不断收缩</strong></span>。要改善经济的问题,只能是政府部门首先带头加杠杆,再把这个杠杆传给实体经济,再传给非金融部门,最后传到居民部门。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7394766780432309" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6QqibLhc2XrVH3Ocn0ZVpo56UXpaKBOyxt3H9HgzRRTvocAicDibd7T0X5YxIMYNrWQlF7UXsTpsFCg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="879" style="" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">降准有两个条件,第一个是有准可降,第二个是回答降准出来的钱,大家要拿什么资产来吸收这个贷款。<br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">反映到地产上的问题,暴雷的房企,很多都是资不抵债,那他们要拿什么资产去做抵押呢?所以他们只能做债务重组,而<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>面对并购如何做资产报价,才能让所有人满意,这是这一轮行业面临的最关键的问题</strong></span>。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">由此,开发商可能会选择将资产价格报高10-20%去解决“资不抵债”的这个问题,这就会带来另一个影响——房价上涨,所以<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>2023年二三季度,房价可能会有一波明显的上涨,现在买现房可能明年能赚一波</strong></span>。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">直播回顾可戳</span><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">▼▼▼</span></section><p style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><iframe class="video_iframe rich_pages" data-vidtype="1" data-cover="http%3A%2F%2Fshp.qpic.cn%2Fqqvideo_ori%2F0%2Fm3337dgald6_496_280%2F0" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" data-ratio="2" data-w="864" data-src="https://v.qq.com/iframe/preview.html?width=500&amp;height=375&amp;auto=0&amp;vid=m3337dgald6"></iframe></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">后续直播可关注我们的视频号“禾略”,和你相约下午4:30<img data-ratio="1" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6QqibLhc2XrVH3Ocn0ZVpo5ibcqA94KhnVC7icUjw5gsryUkfKS7seprXhp0eUEvHDITynXGzJsSq1w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="20" style="display:inline-block;width:20px;vertical-align:text-bottom;" /></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><br 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data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIycoMZjGF8RrRlGEzqzackrSSVqK5SzNApiaN9vmWpNcEuzuMInkGCcu5SiaAn2iba30oI1cPAeJVnqw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: 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