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禾略历年预测工作的复盘

发布于 2018-04-11

<p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><qqmusic class="res_iframe qqmusic_iframe js_editor_qqmusic" scrolling="no" musicid="4830164" mid="000LDr7E13dXy1" albumurl="https://y.gtimg.cn/music/photo_new/T002R68x68M000001DEgPu1004bl.jpg" audiourl="http://ws.stream.qqmusic.qq.com/C100000LDr7E13dXy1.m4a?fromtag=46" music_name="勇气" singer="梁静茹&nbsp;-&nbsp;勇气" play_length="239" src="/cgi-bin/readtemplate?t=tmpl/qqmusic_tmpl&amp;singer=%E6%A2%81%E9%9D%99%E8%8C%B9%20-%20%E5%8B%87%E6%B0%94&amp;music_name=%E5%8B%87%E6%B0%94&amp;albumurl=https%3A%2F%2Fy.gtimg.cn%2Fmusic%2Fphoto_new%2FT002R68x68M000001DEgPu1004bl.jpg&amp;musictype=1" musictype="1" otherid="000LDr7E13dXy1" albumid="001DEgPu1004bl" jumpurlkey="" frameborder="0"></qqmusic></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">在做预测复盘之前,我们想先探讨“</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>为什么做预测</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">”,这也是很多读者提出的质疑——</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="526" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="456" data-ratio="0.8688271604938271" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4vWfjBNLB7FgibC6xvs7IrCkgW2IxdfiaibgmYaYtiaico8RY2Lt67huoPV2G8JbqxgLKeFhCn29CDJgw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="648" style="width: 526px;height: 457px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-size: 12px;">做预测复盘,为自己点播“勇气”<br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">所有的预测,其实都源自我们内心深处的恐惧,因为这是个“<strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">乱纪元</span></strong>”。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">乱纪元,这词最早出现在《三体》,由于行星围绕三颗恒星运行,故其在季节乃至昼夜上,出现不可预测的混沌,毫无规则可言,严重影响生命体的生存和文明的发展。</span></em></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;">与乱纪元相对,是恒纪元,行星日夜轮转规律,大地复苏,生命成长,文明不断发展。</span></em></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><em><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></em></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><em><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;">在三体中,乱纪元和恒纪元交替出现,无数人为了生存,努力想去揭开其规律,或占卜、或记录测算、或搭建人列计算机……</span></em></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">诚然,中国房地产<span style="font-size: 14px;">的</span>发展,也被不可预测的力量左右。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">房价涨起来,和同龄人的差距,在于有几套房,房价最疯狂的时候,调控、房产税、三价合一等政策空降,直接导致深圳“<span style="font-size: 14px;">暴跌</span>”6元,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>生活总有种“努力工作却赶不上银行印钞”的荒诞感。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">但换个思路——</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们看不见宇宙的结构和设计,却能在数学中看到。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4vWfjBNLB7FgibC6xvs7IrCiceaCZ1uic9nV0VNdmFRq9585gU9bhcIouYrjLVCVlNWkImLOhwwl5bw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1280" data-cropy1="0" data-cropy2="530.4942965779468" data-ratio="0.41328125" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4vWfjBNLB7FgibC6xvs7IrCvasOKpP9ahYzUCnqxkVTyUCoVLvknggcTOnYNrNeBzxyacSibAgM8ww/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="width: 526px;height: 218px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">同理,我们也想通过数学,探索行业发展的规律,在未知的情况下,看到做决策的参考依据。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">预测结果可能会翻车,计算模型却会不断迭代,更关键的是,</span><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">解决一个重要的问题,在过程中,会诞生好几种全新的思想。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;">在三体中,关于乱纪元和恒纪元的预测,不断的失败,带来了一次又一次的大毁灭,但文明的种子永远不灭,在前人的基础上,不断进化,最后决定入侵地球……</span></em></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.134" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5h4MJ25zumJAGpQKEMIjfj6IibrBYsZcxxtnQeHTNJYxs8lJN32dmt4YAgNAgeBglEyzia6ibIl6M3g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="500" style="width: 195px;height: 26px;" /><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">在过去3年里,很多行业预测,仅做了一些数据分析,没有处理数据的相关关系,最后凭经验导出结论。</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>宏观走势基本判断无误,但微观预测结果就经常翻车——</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.8390625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4vWfjBNLB7FgibC6xvs7IrCNNlaSu7lEJ0aLfsgbE1rOibsuqkey7yyvU6BJicapkGaKhN30x78j6Uw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1280" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">大型翻车现场</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;text-decoration: none;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=201749945&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=83e6c513c7e5bf3a34a6af0e11473945&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 18px;text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>下一个十年,房地产的中国梦</strong></span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">根据人口、市场数据的对比分析,预测未来十年,房地产的中国梦最有可能的路线<br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.5890625" data-s="300,640" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG54dicbt18TjPiaUV9mwLxd4oTv5MA4phTDhaCErumvpb4ZwzuLicQWZIIFFticLsCaMLLI30omicotia6Q/640?" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" style="width: auto !important;height: auto !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">结论:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">路线一,“政府之手”将更加有力和灵活,房地产将享受中国政府的改革红利</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">路线二,需求将向质量型、多元化转变,房地产将享受中国民众的财富红利</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">路线三,中国房地产还可能享受中国的国际化红利</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">复盘:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">作为宏观预判,结论与现实出入不大,除路线三没有实现。</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">经验教训:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">仅仅做了一些数据分析,没有处理数据相关关系,还是只能凭经验导出结论。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><h2 class="rich_media_title" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=400620038&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=d736f50ce71c08072b16429b0f473d9c&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 18px;text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>高能房价预测:沪飙北追,广默深泪</strong></span></a></h2><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">根据房价指数、人均GDP、人均可支配收入的对比分析,预判北上广深房价的大致走势。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><img class="" data-croporisrc="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG56ml9S6NrpM3bLIanOpKB30g0k4OXgKMjc7icMDiabswLgMxsWDu0H5yw4cjictySXCOEoVpCU36yoA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="104.34782608695653" data-cropx2="593.6231884057971" data-cropy1="135.56998439967367" data-cropy2="434.51918076818487" data-ratio="0.6114519427402862" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4vWfjBNLB7FgibC6xvs7IrCzlHCEvaZupQHKMpxQCwL7hfRCuw8diacJLSHloE1Bkaiaic0EJW52TbeA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="489" style="width: 422px;height: 258px;visibility: visible !important;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">结论:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">北京:在2015年,房价指数和人均可支配收入骤然拉开距离,预计将又一轮房价的高歌猛进</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">上海:从2010年始,房价和人均可支配收入不断拉大,新一轮暴涨即将到来</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">广州:房价指数、人均GDP、人均可支配收入趋势保持一致,市场稳定</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">深圳:人均可支配收入持续低于人均GDP,钱流入少数人手里,而房价指数一路飙升,投资客大笑,刚需客颤抖</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">复盘:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">做一线城市房价的趋势性预判,基本准确</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">经验教训:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">有时候结论对了,不一定是方法对了。仅仅通过房价指数、人均GDP、人均可支配收入的对比,推导过程薄弱</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><h2 class="rich_media_title" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=401372644&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7bbe3680c1adf621dfc388e38ae8dc88&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">禾略中国2015年工作汇报</span></strong></a></h2><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">根据指标的对标,预判中国当前正处于美国1990爆发前阶段<br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5593650793650794" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4vWfjBNLB7FgibC6xvs7IrCfuNRCZaKbGEvHahxOSW08vgxVuTb4VicrAkfvkfBy5aBrTThPJ4rhSQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1575" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">结论:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">将迎来第二个黄金时代。进入持续上升长周期,地产多元需求的释放和爆发。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">复盘:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">全国宏观市场的判断基本准确</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">经验教训:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">仅用3个指标做对标,方法太过简单粗暴</span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><h2 class="rich_media_title" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=401427865&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=a0d4ce673907ba4fed5632370afcb547&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">熔断公测后 | 2016投资新计划</span></strong></a></h2><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">通过回归分析,预测各城市房价2016年度涨幅。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="1.3049645390070923" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4vWfjBNLB7FgibC6xvs7IrCCv8KsULD1hoBr2KyY66XhC1KvT2z2XOicJic7SnwGicAZ10VFPiaQiclgCQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="564" style="" /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">复盘:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">准确率达10%。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">经验教训:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">仅用房价跟“人地钱”的指标做回归,属于第一代应用模型</span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><h2 class="rich_media_title" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=401847225&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=1ae51240243bad61b1e0a316994f362a&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">北上广深未来十年的房价走势图?!</span></strong></a></h2><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">将中国对标美国,再人为判定,北上广深分别对应美国哪些城市,进而预判城市房价走势。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-ratio="1.0015625" data-s="300,640" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG7IOovbRMN4PI9cGff6EhJNib2j094PElJM7Rfw7YL2fMFsqxZGtvVRnMmn1kv77HkausLfc0pBgibQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" style="width: auto !important;height: auto !important;visibility: visible !important;" /><br /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">结论:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">北京和上海约等于纽约,房价从2016年涨到2022年。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">深圳约等于旧金山,2016年到2022年房价还要翻倍。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">广州约等于洛杉矶,房价近两三年小涨,2019年开始狂涨</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">复盘:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">作为宏观预判,结论有待检验,目前趋势判断尚属准确</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">经验教训:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">人工痕迹明显,外国城市发展阶段仅供参考,公信力不强</span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><h2 class="rich_media_title" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649828776&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=3a44d2215e7ab13fb9072955f38085d5&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">【6月】上海土地拍卖价预测!</span></strong></a></h2><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">通过一般线性回归,以及二手房房价涨幅来预测地价。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.2703125" data-s="300,640" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG5FFo1OLkI3fBeaPlVdsncgwCWGqk7QRefbfhpVviaroiaopt2YM8OBEyHfdCPccSKNbkqoMBszb7zg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="640" style="width: auto !important;height: auto !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">复盘:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">准确率达25%。线性回归R方高达0.991,即模型拟合准确率高达99%</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">经验教训:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">模型的理论准确度,不代表应用的准确率</span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><h2 class="rich_media_title" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829214&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=e245560eeadafae388de6a7d7577e04e&amp;chksm=83516e81b426e7976c5c6d425b4a39ade86d0e12ed288238933e3662f48c58d57c4efeb5c801&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">深圳房价下一轮还能不能涨</span></strong></a></h2><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">对比过去10年,深圳市民发展数据,探讨深圳房价增长的类型,从而预判下一波涨还是跌。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-ratio="1.4444444444444444" data-s="300,640" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6iaOicaaqiapzf4DQb0PmwORX4lncAELXJJOODTqLJThrBia82JKKdQiaWGsSDKiagDFqFge1EuuIKvyJA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="720" style="width: auto !important;height: auto !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">结论:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">上一轮暴涨必然不是质量型增长,而下一轮,支撑力很有可能不足。今年五月,深圳房价可以来个精壮的暴跌,深圳将再出发。</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">复盘:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">深圳房价持续上涨,结论有误</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">经验教训:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">量化分析过去简单,经验判断未来,容易翻车</span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://wx.urasr.com/addon/WeiSite/WeiSite/detail/id/198/token/gh_f9354c1df3f2?t=1523178807" style="font-size: 18px;text-decoration: none;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">房价运行合理区间月度预测</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;"></span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;"></span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;"></span></strong></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">以月为单位,计算城市每月房价的支撑线、合理线和压力线,</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">通过判断实际房价在轨道中的位置,做城市未来量价的短期预测。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="526" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="296" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCE5qFyhMkOhDvFibJZFTZ5RT4T8UklT7mVGVHK73vaPb5C3pTby91iclA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="width: 526px;height: 296px;" /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">复盘:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">可以大致判断房价走势,但结合经验输出结论,难免有失偏颇</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">经验教训:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">每个月的结论相差无几,指导性不强,但可引导读者快速、理性认知市场</span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><h2 class="rich_media_title" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=cd78421e4f2e724f552f8eefc65e0236&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa26aed46ed566bc1f8ffa11498370fed14fa9d0690795a3eff5a186c63a03d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">参考深圳标准,上海房价还要涨46%?</span></strong></a></h2><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">根据房价的价值公式,通过机器学习的方式,做上海房价预测。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-ratio="1.002691790040377" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG58dQFXMvPia9SBADib4prBUicqJOsdYiclEPRK0Rw4jWJ5zxIS1mFXtiageZVeMZbNuWLNfLPyEoDsnKA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="743" style="width: auto !important;height: auto !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">结论:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">中高端项目售价还能再涨46%。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">复盘:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">以“瑞虹新城”为例,9月至今涨了8%,计算结果不准</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">经验教训:</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">结论难量化评判,验证受个体影响,偏差较大</span></p><p style="line-height: 150%;text-align: left;direction: ltr;unicode-bidi: embed;"><span style="font-size: 19px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.134" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5h4MJ25zumJAGpQKEMIjfj6IibrBYsZcxxtnQeHTNJYxs8lJN32dmt4YAgNAgeBglEyzia6ibIl6M3g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="500" style="width: 195px;height: 26px;" /></span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">在真实的历史中,三体问题,确实是天体力学中的基本模型。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从牛顿到庞加莱,经过全世界几代天才数学大师,几百年的努力,终于证实,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>三体问题不可能找到一般解,只可能找到特殊解。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2018年,我们会继续努力建模,希望在混乱的社会发展中,也能找到房地产的特殊解。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">——&nbsp; 猜你想看&nbsp; ——</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 12px;">城市:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px;">| <a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830454&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=4e7c3289190e2a69c5fb20f2ae8a6d94&amp;chksm=835175e9b426fcffa5f65cafe5274b1c296caf1a51e13ef4c7920c5a18847bef3c7b13c2bfd0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">昆明</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830295&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f680ffa2ddf52783e9a7730971520d48&amp;chksm=83517248b426fb5e0efc1e5c62d15b173e4d23ab7aafaab82c6ce861e98d96271fe5dc7db798&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">嘉兴</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830278&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8441ac780477cd9def8d4e9d7866f143&amp;chksm=83517259b426fb4f93ff50f1c07d7b830f16ec4d1e0c23f64ef15a78a056ae301274ffbb8ec3&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">重庆</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830196&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7a599cf338734c1d41c6fa16005b1641&amp;chksm=835172ebb426fbfdda6873adbeddc124ae670de675a7c36d11977106150a1d924572ea70f299&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">成都</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830221&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f5994dbfe9fa00ffce4b5be1a69f3244&amp;chksm=83517292b426fb8419e771cf48ea94de01fc7dc909b4e8c2759c6423b8be6080bc5bd1c248cc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">深圳</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=cd78421e4f2e724f552f8eefc65e0236&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa26aed46ed566bc1f8ffa11498370fed14fa9d0690795a3eff5a186c63a03d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">上海</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829512&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=421f2b766d75009082de8fc1e81cd8d2&amp;chksm=83517157b426f84197c93fd852a3e3f93019c9d81e099784ad0aa09f326ca9dd33a0edb7cfd7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">珠三角</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829480&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c77baf137c109f1017170a708548d37b&amp;chksm=835171b7b426f8a1d942708988b8f4bd875366f5928d1db99470ccad6958aa0c8cd47b292c23&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">雄安新区</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=401964235&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8839375241e6a7e69f49aec108ca1ad6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">无锡</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=203026648&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=466dca69ff3eb746e2e5c21831d57f0f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">北京</a> | <br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 12px;">热点:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px;">| <a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830578&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=73f5149b299d5ce19a433c365eedee83&amp;chksm=8351756db426fc7b173558a1765830766ec5f7fb387e652250f10a106ef6490821f809722cfb&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">中美贸易战</a> | <a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830503&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2fae9eec64a6ed71f0c4ee9e4e9bafe7&amp;chksm=835175b8b426fcaec41bb2a484ef939ac78474c77acde2d96a6f7f8b61a0f4ade630c13e7f90&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">粤港澳</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830398&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=ffd40b9cb7730bd712d8f053280d6fa9&amp;chksm=83517221b426fb37e97b45db61547227724f5a09e6a2a0484a55475066ac41fc1b0165954d0d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">万科商业</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830360&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=3cea24af7ebf848fde74c52538f111e5&amp;chksm=83517207b426fb11a1ae1c301117e9626ba09012aa9d8b4d8f722e45423ecb7e63987f50bec5&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">2018年走势</a> |&nbsp; <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830258&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=079af6257d826b9b592280754ac66a69&amp;chksm=835172adb426fbbbcbc0ba7b27078f59d0313d5bd0f60d0b385720251d85f0b1797abeb24e54&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">任泽平</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829841&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=4c8c80fb3b7b721df0a9fd204ac07f66&amp;chksm=8351700eb426f918410cde0800635745e898437602799c7dfd6c38a623ec784eb196dcec16f7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">悦府</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829563&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9e468d74b0dc9a156fcdb7bb4944551a&amp;chksm=83517164b426f8722e59ebee139130e104a9d6cf46ce22adeaf03fe0c6861e33a901a4246723&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">嘉兴土拍</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829214&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=e245560eeadafae388de6a7d7577e04e&amp;chksm=83516e81b426e7976c5c6d425b4a39ade86d0e12ed288238933e3662f48c58d57c4efeb5c801&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">深圳房价</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829123&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=dfa4dc6c2538443c36261850676e445f&amp;chksm=83516edcb426e7ca756d2a80930aa8be108cbd730cb05573393378c60e9c9e8ce88067b00c06&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">屌英</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649828970&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=94da5f79cfde6c25849b5c41421d3964&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">恒大海上威尼斯</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=402337281&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=01025bafd1b30fc52ccffa541506497c&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">SOHO</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=206752846&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9b1148eb7ff37e89f2cb1c12dcecb8ea&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">上海新政</a> | <br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 12px;">专业:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">| <a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830559&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=5868d66dc096b786f041ec2eca37940e&amp;chksm=83517540b426fc563da660d10d6e5ae764cb60077f73e0f2e41834435f7212538c6d4ce54458&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">二线房价</a> | <a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830559&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c676fe03d5755f00b4b388ff85de3a27&amp;chksm=83517540b426fc5665b450c8f0dc7790926c1375e577ade561219b65a315bf0c9c6ad63129d6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">一线房价</a> | <a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830457&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=37a5c454028fb849c2c5fce3b3575756&amp;chksm=835175e6b426fcf07c9d8fdee249e33edf0ae7f5684be2290c3145624ad430d880a10a654ebd&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">2018房地产报告</a> | <a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830431&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b7596dea6473253d931b3fac3435f622&amp;chksm=835175c0b426fcd63330d6b1a95eea4c8c78ff31886b2494fd56162bbba8c5cf939854102298&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">政策解读</a></span>| <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830258&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=bc2fe4a1a774ba6c59d982debbf2fd5b&amp;chksm=835172adb426fbbbe9325a4f9b6aa2709f6da75ff2908c48f79f7749df8fb04673499ff7899c&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">极小公寓</a> |&nbsp; <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830201&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=1816623486b879233513443f1df6ec59&amp;chksm=835172e6b426fbf07aa0f023c3ff79ca1cf11606fc2f2b66cfe773222e3fa1df7f92affa90b6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">远郊定位</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830238&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=55591402f6fa54ebdf90912d8ea6b9fd&amp;chksm=83517281b426fb975b8910ddf8814762e527d24502eb421ad041b6899c7511c3c66b553b7196&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">城市化</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829710&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=58d632f4b07dc0796127ef5df605bb36&amp;chksm=83517091b426f9871fa25aed40ade8d757557347ecf505d8b9510645b5adcc6d703caed90b31&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">时势蓝图</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829662&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=a0f9b47beae15eaada8d20b39fb26c21&amp;chksm=835170c1b426f9d7c8ecebbe881b254293dea7c826683c2e381693d874915dedef067a98d419&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">土地理解</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829590&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=a89abd34200c237cf3773686a1486ee2&amp;chksm=83517109b426f81fa20b8dfd28a6d572bfb11b42ef10050fe26a1612f0c54dd6e92bd07e8610&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">大数据</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829293&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9c248869ff7a1a03947bd160b429927b&amp;chksm=83516e72b426e7646af7fb4cc65a4904a29c83336f46a87f4b253f2eb893c4dbd9315a65cab8&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">算法</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649828927&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2aab44aa0c5c0c3759d29dcda320a1c5&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">PIE模型</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=401934329&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=1b1c1f6c2d72e6db62ab566dc0fb2d0b&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">市场周期</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=400672879&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2b70716f8cc9b44365df50e1243cb8ec&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">城市地图</a> | <br /></span></p><p><br /></p><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 1.5em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-size: 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