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禾略地产研报(201807):开发商准备过冬,购房者还在立秋

发布于 2018-08-07

<p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">说到房地产投资,存在卖方和买方的两个视角。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">即开发商投资和<span style="font-size: 14px;">购房</span>者置业的差别。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">为了<span style="font-size: 14px;">量化两者的差异,</span>我们选择</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">用</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>二手房的挂牌数据</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,作为研究指标,<span style="font-size: 14px;"></span>原因有三:</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;">1、很多城市,新房成交价,受限价政策影响,不能反映<span style="font-size: 14px;">真实</span>房价水平;</span></em></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></em></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;">2、新房受城市发展,及政策限制影响,交易活跃度有限。而存量房市场,相对活跃,且市场规模,对整个市场影响越来越大;</span></em></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></em></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;">3、二手房交易数据中,存在阴阳合同,交易税费嫁接等问题,故采用供应端的挂牌数据,作为市场研究的基础</span></em></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们收集了316城,2008年7月,到2018年7月,十年的二手房挂牌数据。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.571912013536379" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlthP8ibaib3ZHZibk2pRxvY4O5USr1quUfrDmOsvDUJF9Ul2Tz2s0icSiceg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1182" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">数据来源:禾略研究院</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">禾略的合作客户,可联系项目对接人要完整ppt报告,非合作客户恕不提供</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;">01</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 18px;"><strong>开发商的预期</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 18px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG61qN4jwHtkj4StMZPGEnYjvia9hicGhVcnPOFZkdQluCx9efkUUpkWSDAQmVP2Ow1ylQM44a1OtBIA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">首先,我们关注的是开发商的预期,考虑到</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>单价,代表着开发商,对每平米产出的预期</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,所以我们选择单价的环比、同比两个维度,衡量开发商的投资<span style="font-size: 14px;">预期</span>——</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">316城单价环比增幅</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">:本月房价环比上涨城市,有219个,占69%,可见短期房价上涨动力不减</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.7440087145969498" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG61qN4jwHtkj4StMZPGEnYjYpGpaGRNPjz6sIgI41gL2nicLDUHv7tKNlRcRQS9Fc53HgoHSZwqibMQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="918" style="" /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">单价环比增幅,前10城市</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.6229508196721312" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG61qN4jwHtkj4StMZPGEnYjHM6157ZW0ZwhtzvZGJZhng2qLdOedsYQSFDjPXEia3ugbHVKHdhCicfg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="854" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">单价环比增幅,末10城市</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.6241217798594848" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG61qN4jwHtkj4StMZPGEnYjFYjW5wOLJ7ib4g59Akh2jicYibaKR1jJKuYTT0nsv2VTEpplF9sNxs0Mg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="854" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">316城单价同比增幅</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">:本月房价同比上涨城市,有121个,占38%,相较去年,市场有所降温</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.7315217391304348" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG61qN4jwHtkj4StMZPGEnYjWS59uCbQoKqj9QwD18Qz9pF4BZCGH0afITLib1FRJAClw234ia6adzMw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="920" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">单价同比增幅,前10城市</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.6817129629629629" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG61qN4jwHtkj4StMZPGEnYj7DIzkIU1j5E66rcDURpSMLBk9HiaxCyMTtGZTHQbNwJiaYz1YUiabTHibQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="864" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">单价同比增幅,末10城市</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.631578947368421" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG61qN4jwHtkj4StMZPGEnYjOC7xdeqzKYvBPZsUskfACIibck9or5x0zbJoDT6frQ0j09DWErr4Rvw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="855" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">根据单价同比×环比的矩阵,我们将开发商对不同城市的投资<span style="font-size: 14px;">预期</span>,分为春夏秋冬四个类型。</span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="526" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="368" data-ratio="0.7005253940455342" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAl1SZibicOUAVQ5t0DEe2rkmkzjnJic2szB1wPgZjB7g7vU2WCwBAiaZ3Hpw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="571" style="width: 526px;height: 368px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">按这个划分标准,全国316个城市,在开发商的投资视角,分别处在四个不同的象限——</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.7230769230769231" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG61qN4jwHtkj4StMZPGEnYjOaffLib6n5qmdLufmY7XAa3B6ibvcwyMCf4cHKBTbDY1ChekpqT0J6gQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="650" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">城市分类上图,可以看出不同类型的城市,分布并没有规律</span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"></span><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="526" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="390" data-ratio="0.7444933920704846" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlFXYUWIVo9vqxrlBic4EPkLjwgCr7cEYvWghHWibkB0ibG1sK5za8StSFg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="908" style="width: 526px;height: 392px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">但总体来说,在开发商的投资视角,有168个城市(秋、冬),呈现“筑顶回落”之势,即</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>全国53%的城市,已进入投资冬天。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.6212278876170656" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG61qN4jwHtkj4StMZPGEnYjgVEBXkJRicsx04QHfhmXMqkrw6kP3QM6iaUgkaWD4ZVt2ptP1TRs5RXQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="961" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">具体对开发商投资而言,春天型城市有:</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-backh="330" data-backw="526" data-before-oversubscription-url="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG61qN4jwHtkj4StMZPGEnYjtNjH8sQwH65OVspMticbCC1I4L2j4MCvFvqic5h3fMGlBte9icTUrZGDw/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.6275243081525804" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG61qN4jwHtkj4StMZPGEnYjtNjH8sQwH65OVspMticbCC1I4L2j4MCvFvqic5h3fMGlBte9icTUrZGDw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1337" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">夏天型城市有:</span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.6275243081525804" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG61qN4jwHtkj4StMZPGEnYjJmp30pVp5ppCLPDzr0LM33EtYickOYtKnztbcOdhVNsdOKH7S23L9YA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1337" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">秋天型城市有:</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.6327300150829562" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG61qN4jwHtkj4StMZPGEnYj4aYMQFfFCTC3zyBCwPFNqUhPn9Lj6Cusdpk5WYD8YUVFqoXZZyocOA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1326" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">冬天型城市有:</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.6821241585639491" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG61qN4jwHtkj4StMZPGEnYjFE2AicomThL93ht0zp5QalVeQCM4YcnwrJyBz49Uw02gUPcSmKTeR6Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1337" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;">02</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>开发商的刻度</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">根据316城单价当月数据:在开发商的投资视角里,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>全国top30进入门槛,去到了1.4万元/㎡,较去年(1.2<span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>万元/㎡</strong></span>)同期提升19%。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">其中浙江省,11个地级市中占7席,典型藏富于民<span style="font-size: 14px;">的</span>省份,对房企来说,是抬单价、出利润的好选择。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.7367256637168141" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlKsY1ZXB5ib2ZxOJ6YkzD6KR3VladCkucibg3MY6yOkhWJuC2ickR9fGVQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="904" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="1.4879581151832462" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlcNaOQUu4sibFEuH5YnSccqmwtiaxeyr1R1G35vcztKGsG4zZTGnkJRxw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="955" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">316城单价TOP30榜单变化,其中排名上升幅度大的城市,基本都是浙江城市,金华(+8)、丽水(+6)、舟山(+5)、温州(+4)</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="526" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="1076" data-ratio="2.078288100208768" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAloZsnvYGnOdkm8hOG3IbZ38ZmxUT8gIZWyicHlgj4G887DOoBWLXJicaw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="958" style="width: 526px;height: 1093px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br />具体来看top30前三名城市,单价走势——</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAl0yQ7biab6eVHIumbttnVE26yNVObJMsibnFcrslw50H8fDqBtRkaZicRA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlpNTicmW3JicXk4vx5wCNk6o2RJJicShdsAVlLIGXyhRr1yiaZ2SKI79xeQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlEMKIAriag9H1BnlmUFiaBY42MVYwXByCh498J4mAXOVKibA3pHiaGKlheQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">top30后三名城市,单价走势——</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlbePmzxvUrND9t69HA1xsLv4RVuviaEOwvm94ToZXII9icuVqialvEnGpw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlm8j9cwiav6DZAxIcBZYia4H4jOld7jYsEA8jKeKmiaEDp5sMVv4AOcl8Q/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAl94VGiaqzyMiczcp5OeQuL7JCmJAqiagyqGxvmIxN56rC0jWicOCOy5RUuw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;">03</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>购房者的预期</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAltZOicRmTXkQMeQHUMFumINkqLvweiaWV2k7eHwW5qOuZcCYp9p4ibeFHw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">接下来,我们关注购房者的置业<span style="font-size: 14px;">预期</span>,考虑到</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>总价,代表着<span style="font-size: 14px;">购房</span>者,对总支出成本的预算</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,<span style="font-size: 14px;">所以,我们选择总价的环比、同比两个维度,衡量<span style="font-size: 14px;">购房</span>者的置业<span style="font-size: 14px;">预期</span>——</span></span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">316城总价环比增幅</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">:本月成交总价环比上涨城市,有190个,占60%;下跌有126个,占40%。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从区域上看,东三省及云南省,购买力提升<span style="font-size: 14px;">明显</span>。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.7356446370530878" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlEiajiazTiaWd7B8tnwl5LicoRAiauB7dZB3uranYJakibYNAAuOz3nQHYadA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="923" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">总价环比增幅,前10城市</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.6807017543859649" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlvr9AD2umiaytHyHz0PKYSLiccaKpmlT2OcBeGQzswOc6UkzqeOT7x8iag/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="855" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">总价环比增幅,末10城市</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.7634660421545667" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAljh8p9U3iaQfdrPHgNckbj6q9OuibqAmQ5xvBpKDgCfxl4MZTxnch8fGg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="854" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">316城总价同比增幅</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">:本月成交总价同比上涨城市,有290个,占92%;下跌有26个,占8%。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从区域上看,四川及云南省,购买力提升明显。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.7358078602620087" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAl5hPc4nLt795U3A5C5opytswTfJIJfFtV83DhYeqLS4mVicHy6QHFZpg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="916" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">总价同比增幅,前10城市</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.6783625730994152" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlGKe9oltWXufjibsg2bhObtB4UxTctDokwu4aIvGQMnqiaRNR4elHPVFA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="855" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">总价同比增幅,末10城市</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.6334894613583139" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAl4Bj4rYtsHNWN0nojFsRCFqJc3AbMxyUtLVM3NicnLpTThZyTljtib07Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="854" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">根据总价同比×环比的矩阵,<span style="font-size: 14px;">我们将购房者对不同城市的置业<span style="font-size: 14px;">预期</span>,分为春夏秋冬四个类型。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="526" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="390" data-ratio="0.7420886075949367" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlNCFpuZalkC6sf9Jrqr3ialPHqrfSCplJPOq92ShN09T15X0qvRsuqSA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="632" style="width: 526px;height: 390px;" /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">按这个划分标准,将全国316个城市,分类上图——</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="526" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="392" data-ratio="0.7444933920704846" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAllg5SI2OibB863j4udG62xYxEuLZzHQM3kfHsN8QZse7b9HGeWNzepFA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="908" style="width: 527px;height: 392px;" /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 14px;"><strong>在<span style="font-size: 14px;">购房</span>者置业视角,全国有87个城市,进入投资冬天,较开发商而言,更为乐观</strong></span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="526" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="276" data-ratio="0.4897435897435897" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAleHNLMyfyDzqNUEe1ibRmT06tm4IVKp1vJLMNn9lwyaJ5nCW3Xy8VpAA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="780" style="width: 558px;height: 273px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">具体来说,对<span style="font-size: 14px;">购房</span>者置业而言,春天型城市:</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.6275243081525804" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAl6EK3glib2lDNCdToyrjygZ6puDcsgibHHKaLtTXic4sD6acUMPFKd6MgA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1337" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">夏天型城市:</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.6275243081525804" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlN6hdMbH8PLfqWDrRq8qhwFvzc5uYYoHZJyKR8ibYZqBk9XjPpdYUoag/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1337" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">秋天型城市:</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.6327300150829562" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlX46tqtPUaZwF53Othr1ib5Q62v1Zzx7YChR8MStSDagIXqoQ6iaNO2DQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1326" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">冬天型城市:</span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.6795827123695977" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAl0SkoEjxRADk1VUibIKF0mcRRAxgKroWJ7qp1Gf86oXFMibMF8vzOwiaWQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1342" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;">04</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">购房者的刻度</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">根据316城总价当月数据:在<span style="font-size: 14px;">购房</span>者置业视角里,全国top30进入门槛,162万/套,较去年(141<span style="font-size: 14px;">万/套</span>)同期增长15%。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">其中长三角城市相对较高,住房消费购买力强</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.7367256637168141" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlwMH7ibAte1ic3KiaBy0M0dVqYvP6QceNpyj8RWf3BMuaSGuCkoPLOjia2A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="904" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="1.6" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlBcEZv2OMQ06K5IxOkzCbiaLib9WlRqIQXINibobXgGaJkp0EnWfLPIw9A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="955" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">316城总价TOP30榜单变化,其中,台州(+5)、丽水(+4)排名变化最明显</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="526" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="917" data-ratio="1.7701149425287357" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlrro0chfNLSxSy5mkzLNTwyD6Jr0LqCty1AiaGicpG7vDt00a9Pe68zNw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="957" style="width: 526px;height: 931px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">具体来看top30前三名城市,总价走势——</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlicGQzQ8xl1jiaRlIfSeHMiaRAx07DWsHmNbNSwhspO4vPOU2PbbAUoyicA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlqK9m67THtibZnePUmnibhlFTvJ28RCj2FHSbfVy1Lxd9SjeKXqK8ibNJw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlKLdF62wmkzSTR9QS07Brx1ZZk4ASkRXhGTeZA2mtPeKftcQtuiadib2w/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">top30后三名城市,总价走势——</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlADOHicNOtCibLClwO7EtkkmzibicXDBXha3Inkwvjj5GjCKmgNg8CY523g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlcXZxpysB0OnTl2rzJWn256HpmSuYg4TMzFFe3AlMzsoESTyB6ekUFQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlzfcZ8ZkIQVDeK5k83azFrPfT7euzmEm7VCTR7HPic2BzoRFBF06Xmtg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;">05</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">购房者比开发商乐观</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">根据同比增速和环比增速,我们用熵值法评分,分别算出开发商、<span style="font-size: 14px;">购房</span>者,对市场的信心指数。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">根据单价,计算开发商信心指数</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.7440347071583514" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAllOaKIqQBZCUtvjsHFfKMsI5ia1AcSbrCXpP5mtticcDIQicaF1sVGVuWQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="922" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">根据总价,计算<span style="font-size: 14px;">购房</span>者信心指数</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.7513691128148959" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAl8O7CfcwAIXIaiaHRMvDx1svYlGssO4Ak124UwPG4e2803OAqCmMCKpg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="913" style="" /><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">开发商信心指数,和购房者信心指数对比</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">开发商更有信心</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(217, 33, 66);"></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">的城市</span>TOP<span style="font-size: 14px;">10</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.8119469026548672" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlrLDHP2Cj2sjxCAVDqiczcaQibbYxeck51uqfsIIt0or8W3OX7v5Naiaibg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="904" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">购房者更有信心</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(217, 33, 66);"></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">的城市</span>TOP<span style="font-size: 14px;">10</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.8119469026548672" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAl8nS9wP4t8jO5wdIVwpDuNch7KpmRh8zviaXawjBD0Rq6JbF0ItTXqgg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="904" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">开发商和购房者都有信心的城市<br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.7887168141592921" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAlVlVJhGXOFt9RMFrQBbpvyiaZM3AYFiaibaEWVA4qbog1eqU5n4PscRmiaw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="904" style="" /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">开发商和购房者都缺乏信心的城市</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.7887168141592921" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4cJ2iaEVpEbnQT9gIniadJAleUqicVOxT5JcKWvyvlEzARP1icNUUcLblHQ1svgd3qxugMNqIUfC8m8A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="904" style="" /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">——&nbsp; 猜你想看&nbsp; ——</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">城市:</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">| <a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831065&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2ffb60d98d02ebcab655c55d34d0acbf&amp;chksm=83517746b426fe509cc721e0e3acf05fd1f60b8695dc3b66c08c0a7aa917e7471b013b02c2c2&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">太原</a> |&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830804&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f571d8218b897b21571a6b2f497d3a1b&amp;chksm=8351744bb426fd5d509591673f4082563a02342283f53dfda255ad33304e6746d6448051b9ea&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">温州</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830454&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=4e7c3289190e2a69c5fb20f2ae8a6d94&amp;chksm=835175e9b426fcffa5f65cafe5274b1c296caf1a51e13ef4c7920c5a18847bef3c7b13c2bfd0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">昆明</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830295&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f680ffa2ddf52783e9a7730971520d48&amp;chksm=83517248b426fb5e0efc1e5c62d15b173e4d23ab7aafaab82c6ce861e98d96271fe5dc7db798&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">嘉兴</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830278&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8441ac780477cd9def8d4e9d7866f143&amp;chksm=83517259b426fb4f93ff50f1c07d7b830f16ec4d1e0c23f64ef15a78a056ae301274ffbb8ec3&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">重庆</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830196&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7a599cf338734c1d41c6fa16005b1641&amp;chksm=835172ebb426fbfdda6873adbeddc124ae670de675a7c36d11977106150a1d924572ea70f299&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">成都</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830221&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f5994dbfe9fa00ffce4b5be1a69f3244&amp;chksm=83517292b426fb8419e771cf48ea94de01fc7dc909b4e8c2759c6423b8be6080bc5bd1c248cc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">深圳</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=cd78421e4f2e724f552f8eefc65e0236&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa26aed46ed566bc1f8ffa11498370fed14fa9d0690795a3eff5a186c63a03d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">上海</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829512&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=421f2b766d75009082de8fc1e81cd8d2&amp;chksm=83517157b426f84197c93fd852a3e3f93019c9d81e099784ad0aa09f326ca9dd33a0edb7cfd7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">珠三角</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829480&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c77baf137c109f1017170a708548d37b&amp;chksm=835171b7b426f8a1d942708988b8f4bd875366f5928d1db99470ccad6958aa0c8cd47b292c23&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">雄安新区</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=401964235&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8839375241e6a7e69f49aec108ca1ad6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">无锡</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=203026648&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=466dca69ff3eb746e2e5c21831d57f0f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">北京</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">热点:</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">| </span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831073&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b9e813dced68e2e1397bd2cc2b6d05c7&amp;chksm=8351777eb426fe68993e996d9312897701ad0e93a7703c5d719dc20ebf09a1b0c6715f502e4d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">长租公寓</span></a><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> |&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830578&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=73f5149b299d5ce19a433c365eedee83&amp;chksm=8351756db426fc7b173558a1765830766ec5f7fb387e652250f10a106ef6490821f809722cfb&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">中美贸易战</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830503&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2fae9eec64a6ed71f0c4ee9e4e9bafe7&amp;chksm=835175b8b426fcaec41bb2a484ef939ac78474c77acde2d96a6f7f8b61a0f4ade630c13e7f90&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">粤港澳</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830398&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=ffd40b9cb7730bd712d8f053280d6fa9&amp;chksm=83517221b426fb37e97b45db61547227724f5a09e6a2a0484a55475066ac41fc1b0165954d0d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">万科商业</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830360&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=3cea24af7ebf848fde74c52538f111e5&amp;chksm=83517207b426fb11a1ae1c301117e9626ba09012aa9d8b4d8f722e45423ecb7e63987f50bec5&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">2018年走势</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830258&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=079af6257d826b9b592280754ac66a69&amp;chksm=835172adb426fbbbcbc0ba7b27078f59d0313d5bd0f60d0b385720251d85f0b1797abeb24e54&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">任泽平</a> |&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829214&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=e245560eeadafae388de6a7d7577e04e&amp;chksm=83516e81b426e7976c5c6d425b4a39ade86d0e12ed288238933e3662f48c58d57c4efeb5c801&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">深圳房价</a>&nbsp;| <br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">专业:</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">| <a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831103&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6ae2c7ba214abd19c76ed907399b77b7&amp;chksm=83517760b426fe767422812a59d53a334c00664a2cc146d59a076bc0e59a062f518c7df00861&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">投资</a> |<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831043&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=dcae4bb0d9c69a6aefeb48f7447dff10&amp;chksm=8351775cb426fe4a32f43b1fe3a11ebffb7d381291adc0746d6d0ed9f3efb882617e0407aa10&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank"> 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