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禾略城市地图研究架构系列(三)

发布于 2021-05-08

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54);font-family: PingFangSC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;+预计阅读时间20分钟&nbsp;</em></span></strong></span></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;text-align: center;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(73, 73, 73);font-size: 14px;font-family: PingFangSC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">「 本文共3474字 」</span></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 1px;line-height: 1.5em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;width: 530px;vertical-align: top;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;transform: translate3d(-25px, 0px, 0px);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 273px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="text-align: right;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">▼</span></section></section><section style="line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">上期我们分享了如何研判城市不同板块的土地价值趋势,本期我们将从就业视角洞察城市人群的特征,如就业规模、分布职业、收入情况等。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 27px;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">就业是原因,消费是结果,但我们习惯于就结果讨论并得出策略,比如最近大热的土拍市场,溢价率同过去1-2年房价涨幅的高度正相关,但我们投资的本质是预判未来1-2年的价格涨幅,不是统计过去1-2年的价格涨幅,今天我们一起从就业维度看看背后的故事。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">先说下几类数据来源,从全样本的角度来说,统计就业最全面的还是<strong>国家及各地方统计局</strong>,包括各行各业的就业人数、平均工资、工资总额等维度数据,同时还可以同口径历年、跨城跨区比较,看变化及特征。除此之外,还有<strong>新增注册企业</strong>数据反应新增企业的情况,<strong>高德百度POI</strong>反应已落地的企业数据情况,<strong>智联招聘/前程无忧</strong>反应新增就业岗位情况,<strong>上市公司数据</strong>反应龙头企业的规模及经营情况,各大城市<strong>招商引资重大项目</strong>的落地情况。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">本文先从统计局相关数据说起,很多人会说我们也有,不用你们分析,地球人都知道。如何洞察背后的信息,挖掘潜在的使用场景,我认为是个永恒的问题。比如高中的课本,大家都一样,每个人都有,但有的同学可以考660分去北大,很多人只能考460分读个普通的大专。增加数据的多元化,类同不断买课外练习题,意味着成本的叠加,但还得考虑视个体情况是否能否吸纳,追求数据丰富度的前提是:</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;"></span></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="93717" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;background-image: url(&quot;https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/7QRTvkK2qC6tIGvc3ozCHcBonywI7fDV4Ksmoy5hWQHibq7TQpAQ5tricOQ7dnLg81iapxGeoUkic5Ob8vHOSI24xQ/640?wx_fmt=png&quot;);background-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 1em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;text-indent: 0em;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="list"><section data-role="list"><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 5px 20px;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;text-indent: 0em;text-align: justify;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;">●</span></strong></span><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;">我们对已有的数据理解了吗?</span></strong></span></section><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 5px 20px;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;text-indent: 0em;text-align: justify;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;">●</span></strong></span><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;">它有哪些指标维度?</span></strong></span></section><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 5px 20px;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;text-indent: 0em;text-align: justify;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;">●</span></strong></span><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;">我们知道增速、增量的差异了吗?</span></strong></span></section><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 5px 20px;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;text-indent: 0em;text-align: justify;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;">●</span></strong></span><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;">我们知道数据有</span></strong><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;">规模、质量、结构、密度等多种表达形式吗?</span></strong></span></section><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 5px 20px;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;text-indent: 0em;text-align: justify;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;">●</span></strong></span><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;">它跟历史数据比有什么变化?</span></strong></span></section><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 5px 20px;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;text-indent: 0em;text-align: justify;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;">●</span></strong></span><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;">它跟周边城市比有哪些特征?</span></strong></span></section><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 5px 20px;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;text-indent: 0em;text-align: justify;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;">●</span></strong></span><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;">面对一堆数据,我们用了哪些算法方法去挖掘特征呢?</span></strong></span></section><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 5px 20px;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;text-indent: 0em;text-align: justify;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;">●</span></strong></span><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;">这对我们的业务有什么启发?</span></strong></span></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">是的,可以先模仿易立竞老师,来个系列连环访问,问完之后,或许就发现我们缺的不是数据,而是知识,如统计口径及适用范围、数据结构、数据算法、数据场景等等。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">所以本文并不打算把上面说的几类数据都通通讲一遍,就<strong>选择大家最看不起眼的统计局相关数据来聊一聊。</strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">首先说说数据的统计口径范围的差异,通常我们看到的有就业人口、城镇就业人口、城镇非私营单位就业人口等口径,以2019年全国就业人口来看差异到底有多大。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">为了便于理解,画图一张(本人为非设计专业同学,美观度有所欠缺,请谅解)</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 0px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><img data-backh="303" data-backw="538" data-ratio="0.5638888888888889" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy2RiaA15Ubkkc6Z8RbflibYXZhWLZ5SD7TmxLyx5W27S0lHqmV9OAMY3MBxrHPicCicoib94icCVeQBz1w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-bottom: 5px;margin-top: 5px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">全国人口14亿,就业人口是7.75亿,可以理解为上班的人55.35%,通常叫做就业率(就业人口/常住人口),约6.25亿的老人、小孩、学生、家庭主妇等人群是不上班的。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: #000000;color: #ffffff;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">那城镇就业人口有多少呢?</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-bottom: 5px;margin-top: 5px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">答案是4.42亿,占就业人口的57.03%,就是约43.07%的人是在乡村务农、开铺、采矿、种植、采摘,整新农村建设,搞农业现代化,我们城里人觉得匪夷所思,为啥还这么多人在乡下干活呢?全国有3.8万个乡镇,很多人或许喜欢泥土的味道,种花、养鱼、采摘也可以齐乐融融,或者不擅长城里穿梭,朝九晚六流程式的工作制。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">进一步追问,<span style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">城镇人口里头有多少在单位上班?</span></span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-bottom: 5px;margin-top: 5px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">答案是1.71亿人,占城镇就业比仅为38.7%,而私营企业和个体2.62亿,占比59.3%,<strong>没想到小作坊和个体户才是这个社会的主流,我们下意识以为“公司/单位打工人”原来是非主流</strong>。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">以上讲的就是一个事,那就是就业结构问题,通过结构可以更清楚洞察人群的组成,当我们进行数据比较的时候,需要知道就业分城镇和乡村、私营和非私营、单位和个人,每一个口径的数据都会差异巨大。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">接下来我们来讨论讨论,<span style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong>不同行业人群的就业规模特征?</strong></span></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">首先,我们需要普及下国家标准的行业划分,因为我们日常生活中不是这个口径,我们日常所碰到的更多是常见职业及各类标签:老师、医生、检察、码农、服务员、老板、高管、海归、精英等等,在传统的一二三产划分之下,《国民经济行业分类》国家标准于1984年首次发布, 2017年第四次修订,行业分类共有20个门类、97个大类、473个中类、1380个小类,具体可以查阅百度百科。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">本次我们将分享<span style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong>通过20个门类的数据,分析城市就业人群的规模与质量的变化</strong></span>。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">首先可以将20个门类(剔除农业相关,剩余18个)进行细分客户的对位:</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 0px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="background: black;font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;"><img data-backh="258" data-backw="538" data-ratio="0.4794400699912511" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy2RiaA15Ubkkc6Z8RbflibYXw99hHoJAw0jM36WiamGRRa7icWuhiaC10O78oXZiamONQJR7k0bMpXWMlg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1143" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="background: black;font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;"></span></section><section style="margin-right: 20px;margin-left: 20px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section data-role="list"><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="padding-left: 30px;"><li><section style="text-align: left;max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 5px 20px;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;text-indent: 0em;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;">工业相关的产业,基本就是两极化的客群,要么是老板,要么就是体力贡献者蓝领;</span></section></li><li><section style="text-align: left;max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 5px 20px;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;text-indent: 0em;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;">传统服务相关的产业,主要就是开铺的小商小贩和相关服务人员;以房地产为例,其包括房地产开发经营、物业管理、房地产中介服务、自有房地产经营活动等多个细分子项,真正占主流的是中介和物业服务这两个门类;</span></section></li><li><section style="text-align: left;max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 5px 20px;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;text-indent: 0em;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><strong style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;">新兴服务业就是我们传统意义上的以白领客群为主流</span></strong><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;">,我们禾略目前就是属于里头的商务服务业,未来致力于成为软件和信息技术服务业门类企业;具体来看,大家比较熟悉的就是金融、信息科技、科学研究这几个门类,落下去细分也相关有意思,比如金融并不是大家所理解的炒股这么简单,可以有4类银行、证券、保险、信托,炒股只是证券里头的一个小模块,不能以偏概全了。</span></span></section></li><li><section style="text-align: left;max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 5px 20px;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;text-indent: 0em;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;">公共事业就是提供基础城市服务的相关行业及人群了,简称泛公务员了。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;max-inline-size: 100%;margin: 5px 20px;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;text-indent: 0em;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></section></li></ul></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">具体我们可<span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>以北京为例</strong></span><strong>,看看不同行业客群的情况</strong>:</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 0px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;"><img data-backh="267" data-backw="538" data-ratio="0.4962531223980017" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy2RiaA15Ubkkc6Z8RbflibYXpWmTdBCeoBt6LicyWwiaT9mibPtJTjSPmtHICp50YuJb5WdjStqD6icU5Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1201" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">我们可以发现<strong>制造业在北京的权重已经非常低了,是名副其实的去工业化</strong>,工业就业占比仅仅15.6%,其中制造业人口65万人,已经低于高精尖的科研和互联网了,信息技术85.9万、科学研究68.9万,新兴服务业占比已经高达44.5%,远远高于全国平均水平18.7%。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">此时,通常有人会说,一线城市都是这样工业很弱,服务业很强,北上广深都是高科技+金融聚集地,真的是这样吗?不要猜测、不用怀疑,比一比就知道了。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 0px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;"><img data-backh="289" data-backw="538" data-ratio="0.5374407582938389" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy2RiaA15Ubkkc6Z8RbflibYXzNM9eTXl4z1tBfKOIwZmNLf4GeoJ2Mam1aydf55qNlXQUk4G87txicg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1055" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">以号称“中国硅谷”“中国科技第一城”深圳为例,工业就业占比高达39.8%,是北京的2.5倍,很多人都说不可能,我去过深圳。我经常回答是,你去过的应该是深圳福田中心区、南山中心区,<strong>有空去深圳的关外看看,遍地都是城中村+厂区</strong>,这是主要的城市肌理,听说富士康大厂现在还有40万普工在日夜组装苹果手机,偶尔能看见的几个楼盘,那都是近几年开发出来的,宛如一颗颗闪亮的星,成为人们共同追逐的对象。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">除此之外,我们还可以<span style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong>对比北京、深圳两个城市</strong></span><strong>最近5年的就业变化</strong>,就更清晰了。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 0px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;"><img data-backh="342" data-backw="538" data-ratio="0.6352583586626139" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy2RiaA15Ubkkc6Z8RbflibYXuMIWcPzV675ClAfPYTf34kV687eM3eYPoMaI8iaOh6uYUgYmmmjK3fQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="987" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 0px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;"><img data-backh="381" data-backw="538" data-ratio="0.7087912087912088" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy2RiaA15Ubkkc6Z8RbflibYXEq2pYPagKUwmCVcV7YsOjFbg9lf2ZXn5GG22y9ynMHiaHdwBZH3nG7Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1092" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section data-role="list"><ul style="padding-left: 30px;" class="list-paddingleft-2"><li><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">总就业人口北京增加17.4万,深圳增加376.1万,<strong>一个在调结构,一个在做增量,属于完全不同的两个阶段</strong>;</span></section></li><li><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">北京制造业、建筑业都在大幅减少,而深圳还在增加,说明什么?<strong>一个去工业化、城市化进入减速阶段;而另一个还在加速工业化、城市化</strong>,轰轰烈烈盖房子修路。</span></section></li><li><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">北京的传统服务业为何要弱于深圳呢?</span></strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">传统服务业,呈现形态最主要就两种,一个专业市场、一个街区的商铺,看看北京动批市场外迁、体验下深圳琳琅满目的商铺就清楚了,完全不是一个量级,去北京出差,如果酒店没有早餐,可能要奔跑3个街区才能看到一个路边早餐铺;</span></span></section></li><li><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">再看<strong>新兴服务,北京强悍太多了</strong>,其实我们熟知的第二梯队(除了腾讯、阿里两大帝国)的大厂总部都在北京,如</span><span style="color: rgb(18, 18, 18);background: white;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">百度、360、京东、小米、网易、字节、美团等企业。还有另外一个因素就是北京高校和政府机构多,相关的科研服务岗位强。深圳的特点是增长非常强劲,有种后来居上的感觉,但实际还是差距不少。</span></span></section></li><li><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="color: rgb(18, 18, 18);background: white;font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">最后说说<strong>公共服务业,深圳就是弱爆了</strong>,只有4%的人在为人民服务,最大的特点是过去5年,老师的数量从10万变成了30万,去年还有热贴,说的就是这个事,深圳中学的新招聘老师都是清一色的北大清华毕业生。</span></section></li></ul></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">以上说了那么多,只是说了个规模的维度,通过不同行业的就业人口变化,识别城市的特征,可以用分类、对比的方式。这时很多人会说,只有规模不对,还需要看质量,这个只需跟收入叠加即可,为了便于理解,我们将收入划分为高、中、低,一样可以看结构与变化。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">我们<span style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">以江苏的两大核心城市为例,对比苏州、南京来看看人群收入结构差异</span></span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 0px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;"><img data-backh="248" data-backw="538" data-ratio="0.46120689655172414" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy2RiaA15Ubkkc6Z8RbflibYXUsJsgfzbwzWW1PVvrS3QtWrFsXDWd2k6bXX16MF4kxP7r3Jj6Iianww/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1160" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">可以发现京呈现高收入人口占主导情况,就业表现出多元化趋势,而苏州人口结构核心客群均为中等收入人群。结合这个,我们就能理解为何南京是中心-外围式单核辐射的发展格局,中心-近城-郊区价格差异大;而苏州相对均衡,呈现多核状态结构,城乡差异小。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">同样,我们可以看变化,一起来看看均价10000元,还在“<strong>腾龙换鸟“阶段的东莞,大力扫黄之后,是一蹶不振还是脱胎换骨呢?</strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 0px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;"><img data-backh="236" data-backw="538" data-ratio="0.4391025641025641" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy2RiaA15Ubkkc6Z8RbflibYX2q3ReVfJ7cCJuZoLIlSbA2Bd7wxaDO1dM4sq09VmAQXaFvEibEXABCA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1248" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">看下我们2017年报告截图,很明显2014-2016年腾笼换鸟初见成效。反映到收入结构上,尽管低端收入仍占比大,但其绝对数量在减少,中高端收入群体在增加,对于住宅改善是利好。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">再看招聘趋势,中高端就业招聘岗位已达53%,体现新兴行业活力十足。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 0px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;"><img data-backh="220" data-backw="538" data-ratio="0.40978348035284684" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy2RiaA15Ubkkc6Z8RbflibYXj841iczcNLQbwYic0NibaJvicb2OwDiblLUXibyHbXYSQ3TbM1bhy5XSaVHw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1247" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">因篇幅原因,就没有分享落位到空间上的分析密度这个要素,重点介绍了<strong>1个前提、4种形式、2个维度看就业</strong>。1个前提就是要熟知不同数据口径的适用度;4种表达形式,即规模、质量、结构、密度;2个维度就是用时间拉通历史预判未来,用空间看看兄弟姐妹的情况审视自己;过程中为了便于大家理解,结合了本人的所见所闻,希望能给大家有些帮助,用一句话来总结今天的内容:<strong>看到背后的故事,才能理解眼前的世界</strong></span><strong><span style="color: black;font-family: 华文宋体;">。</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 20px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: 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