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禾略城市研究架构系列(二)

发布于 2021-04-09

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17px;background-color: rgb(56, 55, 54);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;+预计阅读时间10分钟&nbsp;</em></span></strong></span></section></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;text-align: center;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(73, 73, 73);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">「 本文共1582字 」</span></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;font-family: Optima-Regular, 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border-box;min-height: 1em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:right;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1px;line-height: 1.5em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;transform: translate3d(-25px, 0px, 0px);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 273px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="text-align:right;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br 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8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">/&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></span></em></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">CHAPEAU</span></strong></strong></span></em></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">/</span></strong></strong></span></em></span></strong></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-indent: 0em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">前言</span></strong></em></span></strong></strong></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></strong></em></span></strong></strong></span></strong></section><section style="text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">上期我们聊了聊如何系统的评估城市价值,本期我们将分享如何识别板块的价值变化,找到潜在的牛股,回答我们经常遇到的两个问题:</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="85791" data-width="90%" style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);width: 90%;flex: 0 0 90%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;padding: 20px;max-width: 100%;background-image: url(&quot;https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/yqVAqoZvDibGjA6hepZgFegzwp60J0wskibSjJG7V5iaJZkpK6iapgskl2QZvia20tkia7mfkByeM7zc5QC1FOuJjUVw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&quot;);background-size: cover;background-position: 0% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 5px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-bottom: 10px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;line-height: 2em;color: rgb(165, 165, 165);font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(123, 12, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">问题一:城市往哪个方向发展?</span></strong></span></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 2em;color: rgb(165, 165, 165);letter-spacing: 1.5px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;margin-bottom: 5px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">东南西北哪个方向强?跨江跨河有戏吗?新城新区建设靠谱吗?</span></em></section><section style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 2em;color: rgb(165, 165, 165);letter-spacing: 1.5px;margin-bottom: 5px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(123, 12, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">问题二:城市拓展的边界在哪里?</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 10px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 2em;color: rgb(165, 165, 165);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: justify;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><em><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">往东扩张可以几公里?什么时候这个卫星城将融入主城?就2公里,价差为何1倍多?</span></em></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">回答这些问题,落地到房地产的场景上,可以简单的理解为是潜在“量价”趋势。我们采用以下架构进行研判,得出我们的投资策略建议,划分为持续深耕、积极拓展、重点关注,机会关注、主动放弃等5种板块策略,同时识别不同板块的核心价值驱动因子。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><img data-backh="217" data-backw="542" data-ratio="0.4009259259259259" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVOaA7FAucfGlibkoEcfqDj258dOe0rsAcLLwxPGXFsSyLEWeSbHpqczteLibRBtWD9qEreKQpdFWQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(68, 114, 196);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(68, 114, 196);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">▼</span></section><section style="color: rgb(68, 114, 196);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img data-ratio="0.5241730279898219" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVOaA7FAucfGlibkoEcfqDjdJde42A8NKMdG3X0lWCIaMr0MENIqlAGgicUB0pvezv2Agaocm7QXIw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="393" data-width="250px" height="129" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 250px;" width="250px" /></section><section style="color: rgb(68, 114, 196);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: justify;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(123, 12, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong style="text-indent: 40px;caret-color: red;">第一个视角是从客群出发,回答哪里有量?</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">或者说具体到某个地块能否对客群的吸引力如何?客户对一个区域空间范围的选择,核心是上下班的交通时间,找到就业中心点,计算每个项目或者板块到就业中心的时间距离。为了便于理解和解读,可以按照30-45-60分钟划分为三个圈层(如果是中小城市,需要缩短时间),简单定义为高端、改善、首置圈层。</span></span></section><section style="text-align: justify;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: justify;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">以合肥为例,就业中心并不是大家所理解就是市政府所在地或者滨湖中心区。30-45-60分钟置业圈层明显呈现出西强东弱的趋势,肥西强于肥东,蜀山强于瑶海,它也不是我们平时所定义的5-10-15公里等距离圈,具体边界可看图。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="191" data-backw="562" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.339961759082218" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVOaA7FAucfGlibkoEcfqDjtwfGuGo1uMX11JicTbHyjwib4TFg4WIZPEtYvQpv4WXRKTwqqsbPtvIQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2615" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></span></section><section style="text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">除此之外,还需要结合实际开发的可行性,即有地可开发,通常有两种,一种是旧城改造,另一种是新城开发,旧城改造因城而异,时间周期不确定性强,这里我们主要聚焦新城开发这个因素</span></section><section style="text-align: justify;text-indent: 40px;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">以合肥为例,撮镇南、双墩、长临河、双龙湖等板块潜在供地最多,达到3平方公里以上,假设容积率是2.5,套均面积为100平,户均人口3人的话,可以得出板块潜在吸纳总人口。具体以供应量最大位于城市东部的板块撮镇南为例(规划时间至2030年),意味着潜在供应总体量为750万平,7.5万套住房,可吸纳21.5万人,即平均每年增加2.15万人。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><img data-backh="250" data-backw="542" data-ratio="0.46131243878550443" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVOaA7FAucfGlibkoEcfqDjl3WFJk8egKnGabuaaI86kyTs36MibddQtfsOd5FYMHJUD7XYDtqIw1Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1021" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 9px;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong style="text-indent: 40px;">这样我们用交通时间*剩余用地就可以识别哪些地方,存在高周转的机会,关键动作在于定义就业中心、量化交通时间、找到剩余用地</strong><span style="text-indent: 40px;">。</span></span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><span style="text-indent: 40px;"><img data-ratio="0.5240174672489083" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVOaA7FAucfGlibkoEcfqDj37XPiaDIKY2ria525yRD027Viaz8bSaQj3NLRaOWT34XNcOKiatgibeDpcQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="458" data-width="250px" height="199" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 250px;" width="250px" /></span></span></section><section style="text-indent: 40px;font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(123, 12, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong style="text-indent: 40px;">第二个视角是,从土地出发,回答哪里有价格空间?</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">房地产开发的本质是助力土地城市化,从中获取相应的收益,但城市化并非只有居住空间,还有工作、休憩空间,以及连接彼此的交通。</span></span></section><section style="text-align: justify;text-indent: 9px;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">于此,我们<span style="caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">站在城市空间发展的角度,</span>用生产、流通、生活这三个要素因子来评判土地的现状价值,类同万科用的PIE。</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: justify;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="85791" data-width="90%" style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);width: 90%;flex: 0 0 90%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;padding: 20px;max-width: 100%;background-image: url(&quot;https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/yqVAqoZvDibGjA6hepZgFegzwp60J0wskibSjJG7V5iaJZkpK6iapgskl2QZvia20tkia7mfkByeM7zc5QC1FOuJjUVw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&quot;);background-size: cover;background-position: 0% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 5px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-bottom: 10px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;line-height: 2em;color: rgb(165, 165, 165);font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><em><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">1.在哪里赚钱?提供工作机会的地方</span></em></section><section style="letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><em><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2.在哪里花钱?追求并享受美好生活的地方</span></em></section><section style="letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><em><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">3.如何流通?能快速<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;">连</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;">接</span>生产和消费之间的地方,线下互联的方式就是以道路为主</span></em></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 40px;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><img data-backh="246" data-backw="542" data-ratio="0.4542553191489362" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVOaA7FAucfGlibkoEcfqDjuI30UELe5cxsxpW94vbFaPUogCnVHcYykG3BiaE4LicDGl57ATRODYLA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="940" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: justify;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">以秦皇岛为例,我们能看出城市呈现出组团式“一轴+一片+三点”的发展格局:海港组团老城和新城轴向发展,同城化明显;山海关组团:片状向南扩张;北戴河组团:三点式发展。</span></section><section style="text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">识别现状容易,可能去实地多跑几圈,就大差不离,如何洞察未来才是我们投资关键,我们需要关注的问题是:<br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 27px;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1px;"><br /></section><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="85791" data-width="90%" style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);width: 90%;flex: 0 0 90%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;padding: 20px;max-width: 100%;background-image: url(&quot;https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/yqVAqoZvDibGjA6hepZgFegzwp60J0wskibSjJG7V5iaJZkpK6iapgskl2QZvia20tkia7mfkByeM7zc5QC1FOuJjUVw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&quot;);background-size: cover;background-position: 0% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 5px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-bottom: 10px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;line-height: 2em;color: rgb(165, 165, 165);font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><em><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">1.新增的就业机会在哪里?新城CBD聚焦了多少?是不是成为了新的城市中心?</span></em></section><section style="letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><em><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2.哪里的教育、商业、景观、医疗等美好生活要素有大的提高?实现质的飞跃?</span></em></section><section style="letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><em><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">3.轨道或道路交通影响的范围有多大?溢价有多少?等等</span></em></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 40px;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">以济南小学教育配套为例,统计济南市各区县小学规划项目落位到地图,我们可以得出北湖、王舍人、唐冶等板块为主要的新增小学落地板块。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><img data-backh="237" data-backw="542" data-ratio="0.43671416596814755" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVOaA7FAucfGlibkoEcfqDjyFUzS3TFxTlpctTbtF0icv9nKKzjBPNY7a2yFibjwovgvibia7PiadXHpjQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1193" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="font-size: 13px;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong style="text-indent: 40px;">这样我们用现状价值*未来价值就识别了哪些地方,存在高利润的机会,核心在于找到核心驱动因子、识别价值演变节奏,动态观测土地价格的变化</strong><span style="text-indent: 40px;">。</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">有了量、价的预判,很多人会比较关注短周期的板块价值演变,可以动态结合不同板块的在售存量,修正得出板块投资建议。</span></span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;text-indent: 0em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="color: rgb(152, 152, 154);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">▼附:2020年初济南在售项目存量分布地图</span></section><section style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><img data-backh="278" data-backw="542" data-ratio="0.5131578947368421" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVOaA7FAucfGlibkoEcfqDjlvXJABNRhoZdUicvnjzMiazqs5Jy4ZOhiaiapEtUOrZeOIIre0PZHD38Iw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1292" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">最终,</span><span style="color: rgb(123, 12, 0);"><strong style="font-size: 13px;text-indent: 40px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们通过量*价*存三要素得出板块分类及投资价值排序,即通过有效客群的比例、土地有获取的可行性、土地价值的演变、短期库存等条件综合研判</span></strong></span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">,寻找量化之后的相对值,识别情绪波动下的低估值机会。</span></span></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word 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