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禾略城市研究架构系列(八)

发布于 2021-12-28

<section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;justify-content: flex-end;line-height: 1.5em;text-indent: 0em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 562px;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section 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break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;max-width: 100%;justify-content: center;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;cursor: text;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: justify;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;cursor: text;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;max-width: 100%;justify-content: center;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;cursor: text;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: justify;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;cursor: text;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;max-width: 100%;justify-content: center;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;cursor: text;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="white-space: normal;text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 13px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: start;text-indent: 29px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">|&nbsp;全文共3016个字,预计阅读时间15分钟 |</span></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 13px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: start;text-indent: 29px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="margin: 5px 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="text-indent: 29px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">如何识别城市的价格风险</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><br /></p></section></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin: 5px 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">前言</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin: 5px 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="text-indent: 29px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: left;">资源稀缺,生命有限,欲望不息</strong></span><span style="text-indent: 29px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">。这是人类社会发展与演变的三大基本属性,然而他们往往是冲突的,每个人都想在有限的生命中拥有尽可能的多。那如何解决这个冲突呢?</span></p><p style="margin: 5px 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></strong></p><p style="margin: 5px 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: justify;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">价高者得</span></strong></span><span style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: justify;font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;">,</span><span style="text-indent: 29px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">这是我们经济运行的基本原则,让有限的资源自由流通,高效的分配,价格成为其中最为核心的砝码。</span></p><p style="margin: 5px 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="text-indent: 29px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><section data-role="outer" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="outer" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(75, 75, 75);font-size: 16px;text-align: center;font-family: PingFangTC-ultralight;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;justify-content: center;letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;width: 316.797px;vertical-align: top;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;height: auto;border-top: 1px solid rgba(205, 202, 202, 0.83);border-top-left-radius: 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: justify;line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: inherit;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section></section><p style="margin: 5px 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="145" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="127" data-ratio="0.9990740740740741" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/1jr85I4zLwhMtgxzFPcR7Tjp5Fia9WqZGoNgSPWLGEk6TUUqMqWyhRlfJ519roTWFe7hhjAEicoZdeCopkppSkFQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;vertical-align: middle;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 82px;visibility: visible !important;height: 81px;" /></span></p></section><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;text-align: center;vertical-align: inherit;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">当下的行情</span></strong></p><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;text-align: center;vertical-align: inherit;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br /></span></strong></p><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;text-align: left;vertical-align: inherit;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="text-indent: 29px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">回到当下房地产市场的困境:6个月移动平均视角看,2021年11月销售金额增速为-11%,接近2006年底水平,仅</span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="text-indent: 29px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">大幅次于2008年金融危机时期</span></strong></span><span style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: justify;color: rgb(68, 114, 196);font-family: 华文仿宋;">。</span></p><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;text-align: left;vertical-align: inherit;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: justify;color: rgb(68, 114, 196);font-family: 华文仿宋;"><br /></span></p></section><p style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;text-align: start;text-indent: 29px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">图1:全国商品房销售金额6月移动平均同比增速</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.3924963924963925" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwF0FVjib7cG6gXzbzIZULy3UurOqk21BYfl8OHdBGvaxBeZMf7Ko0aicbh8B50e75zPEka1QorZVuA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 29px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">价格方面,2021年11月全国商品房均价为9603元/平,同比下跌2.65%,环比下跌1.49%。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 29px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 29px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">我们具体来看下,市场转凉后,最近半年全国城市的市场价格表现:全国338个城市,203个城市房价下跌,5个持平,130个上涨,即</span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: justify;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">60%城市在这轮市场调整中房价出现了下跌</span></strong></span><span style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: justify;font-family: 华文仿宋;color: rgb(68, 114, 196);font-size: 16px;">。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: justify;font-family: 华文仿宋;color: rgb(68, 114, 196);font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;text-align: start;text-indent: 29px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">图2:全国338个城市2021年5-11月房价涨跌情况</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.2554112554112554" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwF0FVjib7cG6gXzbzIZULy3wV42TUMApv6uww3uicwfPvPewicgBfjdQw87l77yk4OdLKLMBPXJRzjg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style=""></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><p><em><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;text-indent: 29px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">于此,本期讨论的问题来了。</span></em></p><p><em><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;text-indent: 29px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></em></p><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 15px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 139px;height: auto;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="145" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="127" data-ratio="1" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/1jr85I4zLwhMtgxzFPcR7Tjp5Fia9WqZGgdicHAWyaVKzibuKUJFYvEU6ndByFXUOmiaraYLpic6bol764st5j77ibNA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;vertical-align: middle;width: 82px;height: 82px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;"></p></section></section><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;text-align: center;vertical-align: inherit;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 18px;text-decoration: none;"><strong style="text-indent: 29px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;"><span style="text-decoration: none;font-size: 18px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">方法的介绍</span></strong></span></p><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;text-align: center;vertical-align: inherit;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-size: 18px;"><strong style="text-indent: 29px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 18px;text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;text-align: left;vertical-align: inherit;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="text-indent: 29px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">那究竟如何判断城市的房价走势呢?</span></strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;text-indent: 29px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;color: rgb(255, 169, 0);"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-size: 16px;font-family: 华文仿宋;">&nbsp;</span></strong></span></span></p><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;text-align: left;vertical-align: inherit;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);text-indent: 29px;"><br /></span></p><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;text-align: left;vertical-align: inherit;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);text-indent: 29px;">这里介绍一个禾略在2019年度分享会,分享过的一些模型与案例,可能有些读者去过现场,也可以一同回顾,复盘下这个方法到底靠不靠谱,有哪些可以改进的地方?</span></p><p style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">图3:房价风险的评估模型</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5934844192634561" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwF0FVjib7cG6gXzbzIZULy3yUgtHwO4zwGoTcia5H1wxgr4zXl9eKgcxcC25rCgalYAfjKGT2LAzEg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="706" style=""></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">我们用此模型,来验证下全国市场的房价风险评估的情况:</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">流动性方面,有两个视角:第一个是指资金总量,即我们平时看到的M1、M2增速;第二个是资金的结构,回答的是社会上的钱多,还是银行体系的钱多?</span></p><p><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><p><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">我们选取的维度是资金结构的视角,核心评判的指标是用实际利率的变化水平。简单的理解,即加息会加速资金回流银行,降息会加速资金流向市场。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="text-indent: 29px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">选用结构的原因是:因为GDP增长已经处于5-6%的区间,大规模的系统性全局增长不太可能,</span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="text-indent: 29px;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">我们已经处于一个结构性增长的时代</span></strong></span><strong style="text-indent: 29px;"><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;color: rgb(68, 114, 196);font-size: 16px;">。</span></strong></p><p style="text-indent:29px;"><br /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">从结论上看,全国从2017年开始就进入的整体的去杠杆状态,炒股的朋友应该比较清楚,2017年国家发布了金融去杠杆的重大经济决策。</span></p><p style="text-indent:29px;"><span style="font-family:华文仿宋;font-size:16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">图4:全国市场实际利率走势</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5295815295815296" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwF0FVjib7cG6gXzbzIZULy3IoIgBvQj6Dbgthydmd0DoDZOydmoYuRqqK4U28j7bnT2N8ZEroibjYg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-indent:29px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 华文仿宋;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">2017-2018年整体都处于一个熊市的状态,社会去杠杆的情况下,很多企业爆雷,可能当时没有发生在我们地产人身上,所以早已忘却。借用网上的资料图,我们来简单做个回忆。</span></p><p style="text-indent:29px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 华文仿宋;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">表1:2018年受金融去杠杆的影响下的企业暴雷</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1.113997113997114" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwF0FVjib7cG6gXzbzIZULy3U3Vygfvw8UW6eibh4eibZ9stlNmq3fxp7QNYJLyT23h5Wt3moaic9mdOg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">资料来源:基金决策宝</span><br /></p><p style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 华文仿宋;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">但问题在于,房地产那几年似乎表现出不一样的风景,为什么呢?</span></p><p><span style="text-indent: 29px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><p><span style="text-indent: 29px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">因为结构上存在很大差异,即</span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="text-indent: 29px;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">房地产是通胀、工业是通缩</span></strong></span><span style="text-indent: 29px;font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;">,</span><span style="text-indent: 29px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">大量的资金是流入了房地产,而实体企业的钱是持续流出的,在当时很流行的一篇文章,话题类似中小老板炒房一年收入1000万,开厂收入不足10万等。</span></p><p style="text-indent:29px;"><br /></p><p style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">图5:全国内部实际利率走势&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5642135642135642" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwF0FVjib7cG6gXzbzIZULy3dsqDGiaHAnpjjeLsymial8G4VBxOtwKmJoGIDFMhLpU0dC1oO5X2lPWw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);text-indent: 29px;">所以,在2019年这个时间节点上,从流动性上看,整体社会资金是不足的,但房地产享受了结构性的红利。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 29px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">我们再看简单看下,经济性风险的问题,房价的涨幅与收入的涨幅是个什么关系?同存款的涨幅是什么关系?同居民杠杆有什么关系?</span></p><p style="text-indent:32px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 华文仿宋;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">图6:全国首付压力变化&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5396825396825397" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwF0FVjib7cG6gXzbzIZULy3t2HyhuZJHKYP4OTDAqVbGBbOMVIO0OsInHfBibWDibp8icXAXpt6V5CbA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">图7:全国首付/月供/债务压力变化&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5613275613275613" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwF0FVjib7cG6gXzbzIZULy3xHOt6UQbGiapcJIiboUuR8R2AJiawSrbHgBL2j1KicGNe9hEQPqqVictgrw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;text-indent: 29px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">经济性方面,我们基本可以得出,从2018年开始,房价已经处于一个高风险的状态,2019年保持维持高位。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">所以站在2019年的这个窗口,我们可以很清楚得出2个结论:</span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="text-indent: 32px;text-align: justify;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">流动性风险低、经济性风险高</span></strong></span><strong style="text-indent: 32px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;color: rgb(68, 114, 196);font-size: 16px;">。</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><strong style="text-indent: 32px;text-align: justify;"></strong><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">流动性风险低可以理解为政府所给到的市场结构红利,经济风险高是因为房价的持续上涨,在此应该高度关注市场的流动性变化。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-indent: 29px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-indent: 29px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">再回到2020年的实际情况,受疫情影响,释放了大量流动性,很多一二线城市房价持续拉高,落位到全国城市看,73.3%的城市房价保持上涨,在经济停摆的背景下,全国房价同比涨幅达到6.59%,进一步加速了经济性风险。</span></p><p style="text-indent:32px;"><br /></p><p style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">图8:全国2020年度城市房价变化情况&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.2597402597402597" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwF0FVjib7cG6gXzbzIZULy3qQsYPS57u8Mria8ldvEvCHIPuibIJWf4NHMib1RY2LC43qVzkVgvxT3IQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);text-indent: 32px;">于此,当流动性拐点来临时,系统性的房价风险就不言而喻了。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);text-indent: 32px;"><br /></span></p><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;text-align: center;vertical-align: inherit;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: center;font-size: 18px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="126" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="111" data-ratio="1" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/1jr85I4zLwgPNVk2WKovkiaaZsJ9ia29ia72qwkAu99DffjBsuqhgk1Nw3mgp8k52Chy6WKjgoSFzDGhZRPVmYYTw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2084" style="outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;vertical-align: middle;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 95px;visibility: visible !important;height: 94px;" /></span></strong></p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">拐点的识别</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="text-indent: 32px;text-align: justify;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">那流动性拐点什么时候出现了呢?有什么工具可以洞察呢?</span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">从我们监测的数据看,去年四季度市场的流动性开始宽松了,但结构上存在反转,</span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="text-indent: 32px;text-align: justify;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">2021年1月开始实体的吸引力开始超房地产,地产的钱少,生产的钱持续增多</span></strong></span><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">换一个有体感的角度,从各类新闻上也可以看到,国家大力打压“互联网垄断”等虚经济、积极扶持“专精特新”等工业小巨人。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">从股市端口融资,则大力推广注册制、科创板、北交所,积极发展实体制造经济是个中长期的大战略,当下是</span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="text-indent: 32px;text-align: justify;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">实体通胀、地产通缩</span></strong></span><span style="text-indent: 32px;text-align: justify;font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;">。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;text-align: justify;font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">图9:当下市场实际利率&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.468975468975469" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwF0FVjib7cG6gXzbzIZULy3MauOmEbQdfftriacDzYdaU3Fg6RHnEPWYxIxCNjj3A1elZns0NAqXibQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-indent:29px;text-align:center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 华文仿宋;"><br /></span><br /></p><p style="text-indent:29px;text-align:center;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">图10:当下市场结构性利率</span><span style="font-family:华文仿宋;font-size:16px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5454545454545454" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwF0FVjib7cG6gXzbzIZULy380Ts3oGUfaq1jNzufQ49B4YUP2UYHxfBYNGh9fpSgTATUtABsQDgPw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">这就是我们经常说的,研究得出的结论是有时效性的,关键是</span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="text-indent: 32px;text-align: justify;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">找到方法、识别路标,动态研判</span></strong></span><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">有趣的是,这次的结果同样是企业暴雷,但代表企业端口的A股已经站到了3600-3700点的风口,一路稳健上行,总市值突破90万亿,同时也没有看到大规模的暴雷现象,反而我们房地产行业出现了大量的企业问题。</span></p><p style="text-indent:32px;"><br /></p><p style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">表2:今年部分暴雷企业的情况&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.44877344877344877" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwF0FVjib7cG6gXzbzIZULy3XnIRr6qCdyOlIsy3YKx9hxSlm6P8hOb0uMwGJibBSicNSkoAlAQQ5akQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-indent: 19px;text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="text-indent: 19px;text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;vertical-align: inherit;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 18px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.9990740740740741" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/a5BGEU0iawDiaVfnaVgpJxcFIHWxTvPQeRNMPNWZbViah1h1u5Joo6HP9icg6eYgrPWxqXh14sCEHE4La71clX5Eog/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="outline: 0px;vertical-align: inherit;width: 76px;height: 76px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;vertical-align: inherit;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">城市的应用</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: left;vertical-align: inherit;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">以上核心还是想借助些案例,介绍评估房价风险的一个方法,具体</span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 17px;text-indent: 32px;text-align: justify;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">落位到城市</span></strong></span><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">,我们同样可以采用这个模型。我们以当时的PPT截图来一一验证:</span></p><p style="margin-top: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: left;vertical-align: inherit;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p><p style="margin-top: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: left;vertical-align: inherit;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 17px;text-indent: 32px;text-align: justify;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">上海:</span></strong></span><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">2019年底预判,2020年流动性和经济风险都很小,反过来说就是上涨压力大。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: left;vertical-align: inherit;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-top: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: left;vertical-align: inherit;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">我们看到上海实际的市场,是2020年7月开始启动,持续上涨至2021年7月,一二手房综合房价最高同比涨幅是12.19%,因一手房限价影响,二手房平均同比涨幅达到28.59%,应该说这个模型对</span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 17px;text-indent: 32px;text-align: justify;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">上海是有效的</span></strong></span><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">。</span></p><p style="text-indent:32px;"><br /></p><p style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">图11:2019年上海房价风险预判&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5526695526695526" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwF0FVjib7cG6gXzbzIZULy3EZMq1Zwmv8ia0RX53KyfcDpyM1wvAy3EUTp2DIUYrW145yv1sv90edA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-indent:48px;"><br /></p><p style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">图12:2020-2021年上海房价风险验证</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6349206349206349" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwF0FVjib7cG6gXzbzIZULy3ll7lOrTl4LJod0003uzCOx5fgXPrkOEO51XFN4KsPnjym9kvH5g1QQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="text-indent: 32px;text-align: justify;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">杭州:</span></strong></span><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">2019年底预判,2020年流动性大和经济风险中,预判整体市场会比较平稳,关键还是看政策的影响。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">我们看到杭州实际的市场,2020年前三季度是偏平稳的,基本保持不变,11月开始启动新一轮,持续上涨至最近几月,一二手房综合房价最高同比涨幅15.15%,当时对</span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="text-indent: 32px;text-align: justify;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">杭州短期预判还是靠谱的,但中长期存在小误判</span></strong></span><span style="text-indent: 32px;text-align: justify;font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;">。</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">图13:2019年杭州房价风险预判&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5602240896358543" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwF0FVjib7cG6gXzbzIZULy3p45pO3WsgrvLl3S0O8bWEl3mcqmAqBfAiciaPMm398lsjCT9ia6UVb37g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="714" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">图14:2020-2021年上海房价风险验证</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7042857142857143" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwF0FVjib7cG6gXzbzIZULy3E6ov2SsRDQfrHVxsCahFeicje78jrWmYyhAhqiclNqUQhRAfqyVdKgpg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="700" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="text-indent: 32px;text-align: justify;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">南京</span></strong></span><strong style="text-indent: 32px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">:</span></strong><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">2019年底预判,2020年流动性小和经济风险大,预判整体市场主要靠流动性支撑,存在调整可能。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">我们看到南京实际的市场,2020-2021年基本保持不变,2020年全年同比涨幅仅3.73%,跑输大势,2022年相对稳健,</span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="text-indent: 32px;text-align: justify;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">南京还是基本准确</span></strong></span><span style="text-indent: 32px;text-align: justify;font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;">。</span></p><p style="text-indent:32px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 华文仿宋;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">图15:2019年南京房价风险预判&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5541125541125541" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwF0FVjib7cG6gXzbzIZULy3VmGHOPHsMh0Y607dyXqIqngv60yxt2rDF01pCqaYPeXaOBNZOvd0Fg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">图16:2020-2021年南京房价风险验证</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6948905109489051" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwF0FVjib7cG6gXzbzIZULy3TAUKdMXR39A9WpjDqYGONA6ibX9bN1YoeN5v8ABib9SYbzWFgX2ac0SQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="685" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-indent: 32px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">结合我们的业务覆盖的城市来看,2020年我们同步给不同甲方朋友做了沈阳、唐山、长春、泉州、宁波、绍兴、合肥等城市研究,综合来看,宁波、绍兴存在一些小误判,其他城市基本都是准确的。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-indent: 32px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-indent: 32px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;vertical-align: inherit;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 18px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;outline: none 0px !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="202" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="202" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/1jr85I4zLwgPNVk2WKovkiaaZsJ9ia29ia7ibYfV5AJ3wK0KLZG3uGh4g2zQ4HwLyzY9I8pq7AUP9YT9Lu0icTFZGHQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2084" style="vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;width: 67px;height: 66px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></span></strong></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 18px;text-decoration: none;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: none;text-indent: 29px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">迭代的方向</span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-decoration: underline;font-size: 18px;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;text-indent: 29px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;text-indent: 29px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">那为什么有些城市不准呢?</span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">后来我们叠加了库存因素进行考虑,因为如果经济性风险很高,但供给稀缺的情况下,</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;text-indent: 29px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">高泡沫也可以成为一种常态</span></strong></span><strong style="text-indent: 32px;text-align: justify;letter-spacing: 0.544px;"><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;color: rgb(68, 114, 196);font-size: 16px;">。</span></strong><span style="text-indent: 32px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">同理,即使经济性风险很低,但因供给泛滥,也会让</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;text-indent: 29px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">低</span></strong><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;text-indent: 29px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">估值常态化</span></strong></span><span style="text-indent: 32px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">,个人认为郑州就是这种情形。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 32px;text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-indent:32px;"><br /></p><p style="text-indent: 29px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">图17:房价风险的迭代思考&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.47186147186147187" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwF0FVjib7cG6gXzbzIZULy3AIzvu0EGnsqLhmemwLKnxm8CVDIFpVicVImMTrmBiaeSvwvzG8ZFo07w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">同时,还有一个需要反思的点是</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;text-indent: 29px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">价格的本质是预期的折现值</span></strong></span><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">,预期的弹性往往跟城市的人口聚集、经济增长高度相关,所以对于高增长城市,或许适度的泡沫化也是合理的。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 32px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><section data-role="outer" style="white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="outer" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(75, 75, 75);font-size: 16px;text-align: center;font-family: PingFangTC-ultralight;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;justify-content: center;letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;width: 316.797px;vertical-align: top;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;height: auto;border-top: 1px solid rgba(205, 202, 202, 0.83);border-top-left-radius: 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: justify;line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: inherit;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 24px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section></section></section></section><p style="text-indent: 32px;text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong><span style="text-indent: 29px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">最后的话</span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong><span style="text-indent: 29px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-indent: 29px;color: rgb(33, 33, 34);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">最后想说,</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;text-indent: 29px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">数字化*房地产</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 29px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">的是大势所趋,不管是城研、客研,还是产品、营销,基于数字化做出研判与决策,不仅仅是提高准确率,而是</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;text-indent: 29px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">摆脱情绪干扰、提高决策效率、减少平台冗余、建立对话平台、树立迭代样板</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="text-indent: 29px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">,以上的价格模型仅仅是个初级样板的示范,实际城市房价收到的影响因素远不止于此,</span><strong><span style="text-indent: 29px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">欢迎大家留言讨论</span></strong><span style="text-indent: 29px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 15px;text-align: start;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">。</span></span><br /></p><p style="text-indent:29px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-bottom: 5px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;white-space: normal;widows: 1;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);vertical-align: inherit;line-height: 1.75em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p><p style="margin-bottom: 5px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;white-space: normal;widows: 1;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);vertical-align: inherit;line-height: 1.75em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">·END·</span></strong></p><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;white-space: normal;widows: 1;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);vertical-align: inherit;line-height: 1.75em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;white-space: normal;widows: 1;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">#</span></strong>大家如对城市研究感兴趣,想进一步交流<strong style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;white-space: normal;widows: 1;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">#</span></strong></span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;white-space: normal;widows: 1;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);vertical-align: inherit;line-height: 1.75em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">欢迎加钟老师微信,期待观点碰撞!</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;white-space: normal;widows: 1;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);vertical-align: inherit;line-height: 1.75em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">申请好友时,烦请备注公司+姓名</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;white-space: normal;widows: 1;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);vertical-align: inherit;line-height: 1.75em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" 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sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section></section><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">- 小军怼城系列持续更新中&nbsp;-</span><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word 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!important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247503388&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=0f062d813045673d04c4b7be347791ec&amp;chksm=9756b438a0213d2e083602e6515dbb9bb37a733263a836463d7b5a9e43ee92c538be54659260&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="战略规划理解" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">战略规划理解</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" 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!important;">关于“钱”的理解</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247504650&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7dcec8c3ae6ff1208d1350dcd2d544b2&amp;chksm=9756a92ea0212038826a76d5cca153a8d84c42e9d3fdd75a2dcb6278fc34738ecf85e804b614&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="地产调控理解" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">地产调控理解</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247505704&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=55a385c1af0e954703505f6322fd772f&amp;chksm=9756ad0ca021241aa7efd20d46cbbb8ec4ac15613d8884a0223267e6737e1ca50c3833c2ff4f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="行业天花板" linktype="text" imgurl="" imgdata="null" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" 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!important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: red;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">-&nbsp;小程序-</span></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;caret-color: red;color: rgb(127, 127, 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115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">官网</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">微博</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">视频号</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">知乎</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">b站</span></p></section></section></section></section></section><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="98910" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;flex-flow: row nowrap;display: flex;word-break: break-all;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="13" data-backw="13" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="50" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="50" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIycoMZjGF8RrRlGEzqzackrSSVqK5SzNApiaN9vmWpNcEuzuMInkGCcu5SiaAn2iba30oI1cPAeJVnqw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="18" data-backw="18" data-cropselx1="1" data-cropselx2="103" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="104" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" width="50px" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZfQibibfZGIkjRNwTHwQ4KNp3zu2sgMcS5VLib1OHNDwOibjnPpUoribI5IcQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="1.0044247787610618" data-type="png" data-w="226" data-width="50px" height="71" width="50px" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzdKK1pWxDY25IjWC6hzyuZPClD30iaLtAVGt7UszT4kJMlymjsJz0yLneTFRIJS1jvpr56X0OGLrQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 50px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="47" data-backw="47" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZficyibw72OWmSMvgNNjSWoDHlf7aSgplp7dtCDAEFtJKHBnC8qaLHSIeQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" width="50px" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word 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100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">感谢你的每一个分享 | 点赞 | 在看</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">SPECIAL THANKS</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 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