官网首页 › 研究观点 › 观点正文

禾略城市研究架构系列(六)

发布于 2021-06-25

<section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;justify-content: flex-end;line-height: 1.5em;text-indent: 0em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 100%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p><img data-backh="121" data-backw="370" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="390" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="575" data-ratio="1.5197740112994351" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVOaA7FAucfGlibkoEcfqDjjlI7IymK65uUkxYZTeb3HrX4X4enfbMbk1VDeR2ib2q7IwGOTuSq0xA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="354" style="box-sizing: border-box;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);text-indent: 36px;width: 252px;height: auto !important;" /></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;justify-content: flex-end;line-height: 1.5em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;height: auto;border-width: 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: justify;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="text-align:center;margin: 5px 15px;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p><section style="letter-spacing: -1px;text-align: right;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: -20px;border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;z-index: 0;text-align: center;justify-content: center;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;width: 270.797px;vertical-align: top;height: auto;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;justify-content: center;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;justify-content: center;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;justify-content: center;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align:right;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:right;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;padding-right: 2em;padding-left: 2em;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;min-height: 1em;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Futura-Medium;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 17px;background-color: rgb(56, 55, 54);font-family: PingFangSC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;+预计阅读时间15分钟&nbsp;</em></span></strong></span></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;text-align: center;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(73, 73, 73);font-size: 14px;font-family: PingFangSC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">「 本文共2423字 」</span></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 1px;line-height: 1.5em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;transform: translate3d(-25px, 0px, 0px);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 273px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="text-align:right;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-indent: 0em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 2em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;line-height: 2em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">▼</span></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="85872" data-width="90%" style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);width: 90%;flex: 0 0 90%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 10px 16px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 32px;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">「Part&nbsp;One</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 32px;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">」</span><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></span></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 13px;color: rgb(147, 137, 83);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">前言/先聊聊历史/History</span></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">说到预判,我们先聊聊历史,因为</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(147, 137, 83);font-size: 15px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">我们大多数人习惯于用过去的涨幅线性预判未来的市场空间。</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">在一个上涨的市场,随便喊几个指标,库存少、来访大、溢价高,未来市场还要大涨,基本95%的人会说是的;在一个下跌的市场,但凡你说要回暖,都会遇到非常大的阻力,库存大、促销多、客流少等等。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">具体看下图,过去一年全国来看,全国平均涨幅为7.7%,那具体哪些地方涨幅大呢?</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><img data-ratio="0.5477582846003899" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIw11yoKe0RhBuK4fmR36yS3IRtG5208Bia8RYhIawImmDA84HVdk8KowXgdbysoNdeic8Qlw3SWOZzQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1026" style="height: auto !important;"></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">为了体现空间特征,我们做了个莫兰图,</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(147, 137, 83);font-size: 15px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">东南沿海的长三角以及苏北整体表现亮眼,</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">浙江县城房价突破3万的消息已经遍地开花了;除此之外,西北很多中小城市涨幅也很喜人,所以上个月去西安交流,有位领导说你们老说大湾区很牛逼,但我看大湾区很多城市房价也不行,我们西北这几年都还不错。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">再看分城市等级,过去一年二线及以上城市涨幅基本都超过10%,而三线以下城市均低于6%,所谓的后疫情时代,人们并没有从高密度的大城市走向低密度的小城市,而是</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(147, 137, 83);font-size: 15px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">持续向大城市聚集,仿佛加速了大国大城的步伐,</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">但或许这只是短期的资金现象,宽松货币下对资产配置的强烈需求。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">具体看城市,大湾区的东莞、广州表现亮眼,接力了去年初深圳的步伐;长三角区域的嘉兴、盐城、合肥、淮安来了一波补涨,这几个城市都有个特点,要么房价相对低、要么上一轮大幅上涨后有些调整,其他城市就不一一阐述了。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><br /></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="85872" data-width="90%" style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);width: 90%;flex: 0 0 90%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 10px 16px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 32px;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">「</span></section><section style="margin-right: 5px;margin-left: 15px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.5em;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="text-align:center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-size: 30px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);letter-spacing: 8px;line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span data-brushtype="text" hm_fix="315:201" style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(73, 68, 41);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">Part Two&nbsp;</span></strong></span></p></section><section style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 32px;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">」</span><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></span></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 13px;color: rgb(147, 137, 83);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">然后/再看看未来/Future</span></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">说完过去,我们再来看看未来,有什么方式方法进行预判呢?炒股的朋友都清楚,</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(147, 137, 83);font-size: 15px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">线性预判属于趋势投资者,最终能够胜出的寥寥无几,</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">比如往往库存最高的时候,是价格见底的时候,库存最低的时候,是价格最高的时候。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">我们研究的方法方式还是需</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">要回归到理性、回归到价值判断。房价上涨或者销量提升的背后因子无非就是以下两个:</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><img data-ratio="0.5113851992409867" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIw11yoKe0RhBuK4fmR36yS3iaYe03xicsAOmCAyqNM5ibicCenh49h0XLTYlfcqrKkiay5vias2cVlicgnGg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1054" style="height: auto !important;"></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><strong><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(147, 137, 83);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;第一个是供求关系的变化。</span></strong></section><section style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><strong><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(147, 137, 83);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">↓↓↓</span></strong></section><section style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">这个拆分看,需求的提升并非就是常住人口的增加这么简单,而是多重人口结构演变的,我们认为会有4种:</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="85791" data-width="94%" style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-right: auto;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);width: 94%;flex: 0 0 94%;margin-left: auto;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;transform: rotateZ(0deg);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;padding: 20px;max-width: 100%;background-image: url(&quot;https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/yqVAqoZvDibGjA6hepZgFegzwp60J0wskibSjJG7V5iaJZkpK6iapgskl2QZvia20tkia7mfkByeM7zc5QC1FOuJjUVw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&quot;);background-size: cover;background-position: 0% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 5px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 1.5em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: -10px;margin-left: 4px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;padding-left: 1em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-left: 1px solid rgb(242, 242, 242);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-autoskip="1" style="margin-top: 10px;max-width: 100%;text-align: justify;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(116, 115, 122);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 1px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgb(116, 115, 122);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></span><p style="text-align:left;text-indent: 0em;margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">1.为了体验更美好的生活,人从乡下到城里来了,</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(147, 137, 83);font-size: 15px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">城镇化客群</span><span style="font-size: 15px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><span style="color: black;">;</span></span></p><p style="text-align:left;text-indent: 0em;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-top: 20px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2.从无业游民或者学生进入了工作阶段,</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(147, 137, 83);font-size: 15px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">就业驱动客群</span><span style="font-size: 15px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><span style="color: black;">;</span></span></p><p style="text-align:left;text-indent: 0em;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-top: 20px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">3.留守儿童不留守了,一家团团圆圆在城市安家,</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(147, 137, 83);font-size: 15px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">教育驱动客群</span><span style="font-size: 15px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><span style="color: black;">;</span></span></p><p style="text-align:left;text-indent: 0em;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-top: 20px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">4.从小城市来到了大城市,人多了自然有些人想长期留下来,</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(147, 137, 83);font-size: 15px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">城市扎根客群</span><span style="font-size: 15px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><span style="color: black;">。</span></span></p></span></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">或许你会说这个四个存在交叉,没有完全独立、相互穷尽。是的,这就是人的复杂性,坏人也会做好事,警察也会干坏事。客群分类难以迭代的根本原因也是在这里,</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(147, 137, 83);font-size: 15px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">如果我们不接受人的复杂性、多面性,就只能会用支付力*生命周期划分客群,20年不变</span><span style="font-size: 15px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><span style="color: black;">。</span></span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">或者你又会说,这个重复计算了,这块建议可以系统阅读城市研究架构系列(五),常住人口减少、但城镇人口增加,因为人在空间上是有差异的;常住人口增加、但就业人口减少的城市也比比皆是,因为增加的可能是老人和孩子。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">再看,供给变化不是简单统计楼盘的供应或者在售面积,这些影响的都是短期的项目销售,影响未来的投资主要是新开工及土地供应的变化。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">最后,需要说的是,比拼的是两个变化,不是绝对量。举个例子,虽然现在有1.1万套房,想买房的有1万人,看似供大于求,但可能是过去有1.5万套,想买房的人只有0.5万人,所以市场真实的情况是需求增加了0.5万套,供应减少了0.4万套,供求关系发生了非常大的变化,不是简单供大与求,因为过去的供求关系已经体现在价格上,</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(147, 137, 83);font-size: 15px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">驱动价格变化的不是供求关系本身,而是它的变化,</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">就好比香港、深圳的房子永远供少于求,人多房少,但价格依然会有波动。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><strong><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(147, 137, 83);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">第二个是房价购买力的提升。</span></strong></section><section style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(147, 137, 83);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">↓↓↓</span></section><section style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">最近几年房价持续上涨,大家特别好理解,也特别关注,</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(147, 137, 83);font-size: 15px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">房价购买力背后其实是有效客群的变化</span><span style="font-size: 15px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><span style="color: black;">,</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">即能买的起房子的人是数量变化,就是上面说到的如果常住人口增加了50万,那有多少是买的房的?5万、10万还是多少?</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">说到这里,很多人想得到绝对的答案,就如上面的问题,得出是5万、还是10万,其实就是不太现实的,因为支付力的弹性是巨大的,资金是多元化的。作为中国老百姓,最重要的资本,房产的联网统计都是举步维艰,所以我们洞察客群支付力,主要是通过一些大趋势或者细节点。具体来说,购买力会有以下几个方面去洞察:</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">1.</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(147, 137, 83);font-size: 15px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">城市的总财富增加了</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">,即人均GDP,当然有可能是各种资产或商品库存;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2.</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(147, 137, 83);font-size: 15px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">居民的收入增加了</span><span style="font-size: 15px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><span style="color: black;">,</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">其实收入有四种,工资只是其中的一部分,以全国为例,2月份,国家统计局公布了2020年我国城镇居民人均可支配收入为4.4万元。其中:</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><br /></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="85791" data-width="94%" style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-right: auto;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);width: 94%;flex: 0 0 94%;margin-left: auto;margin-top: -15px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;transform: scale(1);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;padding: 20px;max-width: 100%;background-image: url(&quot;https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/yqVAqoZvDibGjA6hepZgFegzwp60J0wskibSjJG7V5iaJZkpK6iapgskl2QZvia20tkia7mfkByeM7zc5QC1FOuJjUVw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&quot;);background-size: cover;background-position: 0% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 5px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 1.5em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: -10px;margin-left: 4px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;padding-left: 1em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-left: 1px solid rgb(242, 242, 242);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-autoskip="1" style="margin-top: 10px;max-width: 100%;text-align: justify;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(116, 115, 122);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 1px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box;border-style: none;border-width: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);border-radius: 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgb(116, 115, 122);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></span><p style="text-align:left;margin-left: 28px;text-indent: 0em;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-top: 20px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">●普通打工人工资收入占比60.4%;</span></p><p style="text-align:left;margin-left: 28px;text-indent: 0em;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-top: 20px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">●做生意小老板经营收入占比11.4%;</span></p><p style="text-align:left;margin-left: 28px;text-indent: 0em;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-top: 20px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">●金融房产大佬财产收入占比10.4%;</span></p><p style="text-align:left;margin-left: 28px;text-indent: 0em;margin-bottom: 15px;margin-top: 20px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">●老年人退休金及年轻人住房公积金等转移收入占比17.9%。</span></p></span></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="list"><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">3.</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(147, 137, 83);font-size: 15px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">银行存款变多了</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">,这个变多了,也是多种可能,一个是政府机关团队的存款;第二个是企业存款;第三个才是居民存款,2020年全国居民存款是93万亿,占总存款的43.3%,企业存款是68.8万亿,占31.9%。所以如何预防企业资金流向楼市也是很重要的点,毕竟全国销售规模才17万亿,首付10万亿不到。不同于居民,有着群体规模更大、资金更零散、还需预留日常消费、养老的资金,</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(147, 137, 83);font-size: 15px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">如果企业不愿意扩大再生产,而是进行房产配置,</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">可以想象这个事情也是很恐怖的。</span></section><section data-role="list"><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">4.除此之外,还有人均消费,</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(147, 137, 83);font-size: 15px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">人们更愿意花钱了,</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">以上三个其实是个同一视角的三个方面,即赚钱-存钱-花钱;</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">5.最后也可以直接通过一二手房的房价情况来洞察城市房价的购买力,因为很多城市一手房有限价限购的因素,如果二手房的涨幅大于一手房,说明潜在的购买力还是很强。</span></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">同理,最后比的是消费力同房价涨幅变化的关系,同样不是绝对值。即收入涨了5倍,房价涨了3倍,同等规模下,能够上车买房的人变多了,即房价购买力变强。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><br /></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="85872" data-width="90%" style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);width: 90%;flex: 0 0 90%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 10px 16px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 5px;margin-left: 15px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.5em;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 30px;caret-color: var(--weui-BRAND);letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><strong><span data-brushtype="text" hm_fix="315:201" style="color: rgb(73, 68, 41);"><span style="font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 32px;letter-spacing: 1px;text-align: center;">「Part&nbsp;</span>Three</span></strong></span><span style="caret-color: var(--weui-BRAND);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 32px;">」</span></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 16px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 5px;margin-left: 15px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.5em;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="caret-color: var(--weui-BRAND);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 32px;"></span></section><span style="background-color: transparent;color: rgb(147, 137, 83);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 13px;letter-spacing: 3px;caret-color: var(--weui-BRAND);">最后/精准性/Accura</span></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(147, 137, 83);font-size: 15px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">那这个模型的测算准确性到底如何呢?</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">假设现在是2020年初,用2019年及之前的年份的各项数据去预判2020年的市场潜力,然后用2020年真实涨幅得出下表:</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><img data-ratio="0.5120370370370371" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIw11yoKe0RhBuK4fmR36yS3AibaMaVXPXUgbj9CtZEsEgrXcLTj14rvia12y9q51IicbibCsZeJtsM2hQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="height: auto !important;"></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">可以看出,整体模型还是有效的,正确率大概在70-75%,受到都市圈辐射以及城市的相关性的影响,有些城市涨幅喜人的城市,如咸阳、嘉兴并没有识别出来;同时如重庆预判会很强,直到今年上半年才爆发,有些结果还存在滞后性。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 20px 16px 15px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">最后,分享一句自创金句:</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(147, 137, 83);font-size: 15px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">多个视角多条路,有了方法不迷路。</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">具体模型和方法背后的统计学内容,在这里就不做系统的介绍,若有兴趣,可以交个朋友,线上交流。</span></section><section data-role="paragraph"><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(123, 127, 131);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">///</span></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: red;">&nbsp;-&nbsp; 小程序 -&nbsp;</span><br /></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;caret-color: red;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;·<span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">「HotTina」</span>·</span></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="white-space: normal;"><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><a class="weapp_image_link js_weapp_entry" data-miniprogram-appid="wxdcdd1e610d71ae74" data-miniprogram-path="pages/serch/serch" data-miniprogram-nickname="HotTina" href="" data-miniprogram-type="image" data-miniprogram-servicetype="" href=""><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="120" data-backw="389" data-ratio="0.30973451327433627" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxBKiaQNH3yAajSVKNDghYCq5gnROOAWjmdwIqhP9gBLpU9iaicBb19EGQVKpTzeP0lOXYyF5icG1y74Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="791" style="width: 100%;height: auto !important;"></a></section><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(123, 127, 131);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(123, 127, 131);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">*</span></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(123, 127, 131);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">▷往期文章彩蛋:不要戳开!!!</span></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500345&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=93797fca0ea11825bcc9e5e1c0109c52&amp;chksm=9756b81da021310ba7a377bdce7ef2877fb30eb246731c626bffd343008b77703527595ad2ed&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="inset: auto;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugLLibwPxIshPkhYb8rUpx6OiaokEiaiaoQAs4pBYvOk4KlGWhp5OagMyWaw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="width: 100%;height: auto !important;"></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500355&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=2c6ce758ab3881befb2fbba0ba3603f1&amp;chksm=9756b867a021317120bad43bc938ebb4cdb2953af8c54167618f6a0d2e10e4a0c0dbbeb90f65&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="inset: auto;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xug2z2ZNw3efskOCCTiaR2MZIrkVnqNUUySzc8kPhT5aLfLE1SvHGhoJUw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="width: 100%;height: auto !important;" /></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500384&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=ce96c211a2ed19ee560b34d30d321292&amp;chksm=9756b844a0213152bb36ae4ebc877ea634416495af8892942074d23f0d1b5581b32b705c0835&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="inset: auto;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugNEZT4DD88icwcAl08ZuziaiadYt82wzZG5n14t7224xWjyeK8SNXNIp8A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="width: 100%;height: auto !important;"></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500776&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6f4fcd10bc90a8f72744416eda3995a4&amp;chksm=9756b9cca02130da9094518319d318ca4fd11413c1213d18be9cc9d8302528b34816fdd34394&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="inset: auto;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugA8lpBib3AWM95x6tIIxu56bryKOYOVyRWzd6jsYRjicIiaF1hohgrpN1w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="width: 100%;height: auto !important;" /></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500347&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=dffbd70a87a2f5610cf728e4970ec869&amp;chksm=9756b81fa0213109c740e135c93ac90c20e029871a10bf1ad6d116f9d663d7a26b7d8a673bbe&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="inset: auto;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugMQjVx8C1LeClYXAgR1lKe771SGnJj9TxohSmoF4W79ORTDc52UmmNQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="width: 100%;height: auto !important;" /></span></a></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: right;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;"></span><br /></section></section></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: right;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 13px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2021 | 真好野</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: right;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="93717" data-width="95%" style="margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 627.938px;flex: 0 0 95%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;background-image: url(&quot;https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/7QRTvkK2qC6tIGvc3ozCHcBonywI7fDV4Ksmoy5hWQHibq7TQpAQ5tricOQ7dnLg81iapxGeoUkic5Ob8vHOSI24xQ/640?wx_fmt=png&quot;);background-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 1em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 13px;caret-color: red;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="1.4151260504201681" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugicDNgxJwtUNwSbyTwoKMeKhpicXuMUPzremXkHSdoKAkunXaicYu2AOtw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="595" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;width: 392px;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;height: auto !important;" title="好.png"></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;caret-color: red;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;「 www.urasr.com」&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);caret-color: red;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 10px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">#BE TRUE&nbsp; #BE WELL&nbsp; #BE WILD</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(163, 163, 163);letter-spacing: 1.5px;font-family: 微软雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 0px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"></span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;caret-color: red;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">*</span><br /></section></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">关注分享</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;caret-color: red;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">FOLLOW US &amp; SHARE ON MOMENTS</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="98910"><section data-role="layout" style="flex-flow: row nowrap;display: flex;word-break: break-all;"><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">官网</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">微博</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">视频号</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">知乎</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">b站</span></p></section></section></section></section></section><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="98910"><section data-role="layout" style="flex-flow: row nowrap;display: flex;word-break: break-all;"><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="13" data-backw="13" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="50" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="50" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIycoMZjGF8RrRlGEzqzackrSSVqK5SzNApiaN9vmWpNcEuzuMInkGCcu5SiaAn2iba30oI1cPAeJVnqw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);width: 50px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;height: auto !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="18" data-backw="18" data-cropselx1="1" data-cropselx2="103" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="104" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZfQibibfZGIkjRNwTHwQ4KNp3zu2sgMcS5VLib1OHNDwOibjnPpUoribI5IcQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);width: 50px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;height: auto !important;" width="50px" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img data-ratio="1.0044247787610618" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzdKK1pWxDY25IjWC6hzyuZPClD30iaLtAVGt7UszT4kJMlymjsJz0yLneTFRIJS1jvpr56X0OGLrQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="226" data-width="50px" height="71" width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 50px;height: auto !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="47" data-backw="47" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZficyibw72OWmSMvgNNjSWoDHlf7aSgplp7dtCDAEFtJKHBnC8qaLHSIeQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);width: 50px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;height: auto !important;" width="50px" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="13" data-backw="13" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="69" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="69" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwaUyIuHQngl5c5PD5uQEXrh3UfLLLmbNNIYHsl0uM1fFRJCOicUgwgiaAoBNbUmeBiahGEFZBm9uXAw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);width: 50px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;height: auto !important;" width="50px" /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">感谢你的每一个分享 | 点赞 | 在看</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">SPECIAL THANKS</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">▼▼▼</span></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="white-space: normal;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></span></section></section>

← 返回观点全库