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禾略城市研究模型系列介绍(一)

发布于 2021-03-19

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style="margin-bottom: 5px;padding-right: 2em;padding-left: 2em;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;min-height: 1em;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Futura-Medium;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 17px;font-family: PingFangSC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;+预计阅读时间15分钟&nbsp;</em></span></strong></span></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;text-align: center;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(73, 73, 73);font-size: 14px;font-family: PingFangSC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">「 本文共2332字 」</span></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 1px;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;transform: translate3d(-25px, 0px, 0px);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 273px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="text-align:right;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 2em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;line-height: 2em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;&nbsp; /&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></span></em></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">CHAPEAU</span></strong></strong></span></em></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">/</span></strong></strong></span></em></span></strong></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 2px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">前言</span></strong></em></span></strong></strong></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.75em;text-indent: 0em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="text-align: left;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);color: rgb(102, 102, 102);text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;font-family: PingFangSC-Light;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph"><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">自2015年,我们开始尝试用数据搭建模型的方式研究城市,研究过程中小编有一些经验和积累想跟大家分享,希望能给埋头苦干、日夜操劳的您提供一些帮助。</span></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;font-family: PingFangSC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">M</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;font-family: PingFangSC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">erci de m'écouter.&nbsp;</span></span></section><section style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: red;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"></span></section><section style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">▼</span></section><section style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;"><img data-ratio="0.2764811490125673" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzQryJJhg8L9K1ARnER35kFEHqejKR6FEWr4icqG08s3rvf4SyJonGDG7WSjQJpvKwQJrHl1Wu4qRQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1114" style="box-sizing:border-box;width:&quot;auto&quot;;" /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">说到这个主题,</span><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">有<span style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">两个关键词</span>需要说说。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">第一个就是“<span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">数据</span>”,很多人并不相信它,现实中也确实有不少数据造假、有水分等问题。起初我也是半信半疑,经历过无数次折腾之后,我们坚信<strong>数据是感知世界最有效的方式</strong>。因为用肉身亲力亲为能感知到的信息极其有限的,<strong>我们以为的全世界往往是世间的小片段</strong>。我们认为正确的方法和路径是丰富数据的维度、识别数据的场景、理解数据的深度,结合企业特点、老板偏好、决策感知做出判断,提高手感的准度。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">第二个关键词就是“模型”,也是这次分享的重点。很多人认为模型就是黑盒子,我认为首先要理解<strong>模型的本质,它是数据指标整合统一、识别归类、规则预判的一个过程</strong>。整合是为了降维,分类是为了标签化的识别,规则预判是为了找出规律,探索未来的可能性,提供决策支持。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">于此,判断是不是黑盒子,可以有三个动作:</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">首先选取指标的维度是否准确</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">,例如:我们不能拿体重和身高等指标去预判高考成绩;</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">然后需要定义分类的维度及标准线</span>,不同维度体现的内容不一,不是简单的优劣,而是特征发现。如同NBA球场,我们往往只看得分来评判球员的表现,但其实还有助攻、盖帽、抢断、失误、篮板、命中率、投篮次数、最后3分钟投篮次数、出场时间等指标洞察球员的特征,不同指标的组合体现的就不一样,投篮次数+得分+最后3分钟投篮次数+出场时间最能判断谁是球队老大,盖帽+篮板体现的是最佳防守,失误率+命中率+抢断体现是最佳效能等等;</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">最后是规则预判</span>,过去是这个规律,未来也可能发生的大概率事件,但实际过程中同样需要知识识别有效性,比如我们经常用的指数平滑法,拿去预判宏观指标未来走势,因为有连续性特征效果还可以,但拿去预测房价、股价这种具有波动性特征的事物就不合适。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">▼</span></section><section style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"><img data-ratio="0.2764811490125673" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzQryJJhg8L9K1ARnER35kFND0CuQnQgzxz2Pyual4wRxKQF7eQQEFzlice5JI3KaTLuicuTgEJ0dPQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1114" style="box-sizing:border-box;width:&quot;auto&quot;;" /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">说完数据和模型的理解,接下来将重点分享<span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">关于城市及市场趋势的相关模型。</span></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">本期分享的是<strong>城市价值研判模型</strong>,也许你很面熟,但这次是最详细的解释说明。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">首先需要回答什么是价值</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">?巴菲特老爷爷喊了一辈子价值投资,究竟说的是啥?如果用房地产的指标定义价值,我认为<strong>对应的是市场容量,即销售金额</strong>,即城市价值高,是指市场需求大、销售金额也大的一种对应关系,是识别事物稳定性的一个指标,跟企业性质、能力、偏好相关,万科、保利就是喜欢去容量大的城市,而碧桂园、恒大则相反。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">那具体如何研判城市价值呢?</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">我们从城市的三个价值要素,即规模、密度、结构等36个指标综合研判。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">为什么选择这3个要素呢?</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">因为城市的本质是个聚集的过程,即农村到城市、分散到集聚的过程,其可持续的经济增长可归因于<strong>规模的聚集、密度的提高、结构的优化</strong>等3个维度。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">为了<span style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">体现这个关系</span>,简单画了个草图,以便大家理解:</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.5202761000862812" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIydL6ic90Vh9KQ8NUDT54TMMMJBqh9oWw1HFQnS61OkvQRCrrpVVjWxz3xFpunich07ia01iaKqDQAJfA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1159" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: justify;margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: justify;margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;caret-color: red;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">规模</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">:人口、土地、资金规模越大,消费越多样化,促进生产多样消费品、提供多样服务,进而推动产业多样化发展;</span><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><strong><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">密度</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">:经济和人口的要素密度越高,往往单位土地的产出越高,所产生的聚集效应越强,进而促进经济的增长;</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><strong><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">结构</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">:经济增长初始动力来自农业向非农业的转移产生的劳动力生产率的提升,即“结构效率”,当其到达顶峰,源于非农产业内部生产率提升,即“产出效率”。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="247" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.4521452145214521" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIydL6ic90Vh9KQ8NUDT54TMMhLjxDQibzfaM2SGriaCcMre2ZNQUV9v8g4h6RkicQRWPnqe5IicCgr75zQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="909" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);">到</span><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);">这里,第一步指标选取基本完成,接下来就是数据建模、分类处理。</span><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">我们将全国288城2009-2022年36个指标通过熵值法得出7个维度评分,进而得出历年城市价值评分。这里简单解释下什么是熵值法?即<strong>客观赋权法,不考虑指标本身重要程度,根据计算各项变量指标数据的效用值,来确定指标权重</strong>,避免人为主观干预评价结果。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;">说点好懂些,这个原理就是鲁迅说的,物以稀为贵!假设全班同学语文考试分数区间40-80分,而数学是10-100分,那数学权重就会更大,用熵值法打分,张三语文40分、数学100分就比李四语文80分、数学60分高很多,虽然总分都是140分。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">进而得出每个指标的权重如下表:</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="150" data-backw="578" data-ratio="0.2594594594594595" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIydL6ic90Vh9KQ8NUDT54TMMIicschTp8ztY3OicGQAPtXAx1GneUtIXOL0LM9fJznuoE3JfXLWXSM4A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1110" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);">最后我们将得分进行分类,选用自然分段法进行分类,</span><strong style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);">“自然分段法”是基于数据中固有的自然分组。</strong><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">对于这个分段方法,同样举一个考试的例子,日常我们分段是80分优秀,60分及格,但进入“拼娃时代”后,全班同学都80分以上,怎么定义优秀呢?就是看全班同学具体的考试分数特征,假设集中三个分数段,82-83、87-90、97-99分,那么自然分段3段就是97-99分就是优秀、87-90就是及格、82-83分就是差生。同理,如果拿三年级的试题给二年级学生做,也许40分就是优秀。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">于是,我们将<span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">综合评定的价值得分</span>,进行分类命名强一线至六线。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="271" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.4972118959107807" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIydL6ic90Vh9KQ8NUDT54TMMyviaNqwhAb3pIesyplIibmJrHz67ibcyaZjU6zBYxK0J4dhOcht58JH9Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1076" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);">这样我们就能识别不同城市、不同年份的价值演变、排名变化,即有没有跑赢大势,市场容量的增长趋势。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">▼</span></section><section style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.2764811490125673" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzQryJJhg8L9K1ARnER35kFXWNzHqhfm3k7nbYPEkrG1KwjwrFZQrCzFgF6hr1PkeSWZjs2FXWpzg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1114" style="box-sizing:border-box;width:&quot;auto&quot;;" /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">以我们<span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">2017年做的东莞城市地图</span>为例:</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">在过去10年(2007-2017年),东莞飞速发展,从强四线跃升到二线,未来5年(2017-2021年)要<strong>把握质变到强二线</strong>的机会,而不是规模扩张,经济的转型升级和城市建设将是东莞实现自主发展的主导因素。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="276" data-backw="578" data-ratio="0.47820672478206727" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIydL6ic90Vh9KQ8NUDT54TMMvNhYDmMzNZcPuGzoIicicjGaWAoX6oopIgxnvKqIOW47icMDtng7BAOpQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="803" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);">我们通过排名变化能看出,2007-2012东莞处于一个腾笼换鸟阵痛期,城市排名下降6名,投资需相对谨慎,需要同步考虑基本面反应到市场面通常会滞后2-3年;</span><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);">到了2012-2017东莞城市价值排名提升9位,说明腾笼换鸟初见成效,投资可加大力度;</span><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);">进而预判2017-2021年城市价值排名降低了3名(假设更新数据后还是这个结果),跑输大势,不考虑外力驱动的话,容量增长是相对缓慢的(价值对应的是销售金额,不是价格,事实是过去几年虽然价格大涨,但销售金额保持相对稳定)。</span><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">东莞角色之变:<span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">世界工厂→产研新城</span>,从密度的聚集到结构的优化,对应到房地产是总需求相对稳定,但高支付力的客群大增。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><strong><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">好了,本期分享就到这了,主要讲述的是:对于数据和模型、城市化路径、城市价值研判、具体案例说明、数据统计方法的介绍,希望能给大家一些启发,谢谢!</span></strong></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section></section><section data-role="paragraph"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.04814814814814815" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xuguNUzA4IaM1HlnwOjtN0e3MNSsl0fBffOKia4OPkO3aY8udWMPhhqwrQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" data-backw="562" data-backh="27" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;min-height: 1em;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: left;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box 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0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">微博</span></section></td><td valign="middle" align="center" height="27" style="margin: 5px 10px;word-break: break-all;hyphens: auto;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">网站</span></section></td><td valign="middle" align="center" height="27" style="margin: 5px 10px;word-break: break-all;hyphens: auto;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">知乎</span></section></td><td valign="middle" align="center" colspan="1" rowspan="1" width="null" height="27" style="margin: 5px 10px;word-break: break-all;hyphens: auto;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">b站</span></section></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><td valign="middle" align="center" height="81" style="margin: 5px 10px;word-break: break-all;hyphens: auto;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="98" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="99" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-ratio="1" data-w="300" data-backw="13" data-backh="13" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZfePMA0icWaMOcic9iaFd0YibT6dLicOM9hrnZhKPdRVATv4Q0zf0411ZlFCA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;max-inline-size: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;width: 69px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></section></td><td valign="middle" align="center" height="81" style="margin: 5px 10px;word-break: break-all;hyphens: auto;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-cropselx1="1" data-cropselx2="103" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="104" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-width="99px" width="99px" data-ratio="1" data-w="300" data-backw="18" data-backh="18" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZfQibibfZGIkjRNwTHwQ4KNp3zu2sgMcS5VLib1OHNDwOibjnPpUoribI5IcQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;max-inline-size: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;width: 69px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></section></td><td valign="middle" align="center" height="81" style="margin: 5px 10px;word-break: break-all;hyphens: auto;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="99" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="99" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-width="99px" title="3.png" data-ratio="1" data-w="300" data-backw="31" data-backh="31" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZfRDpD1Gr2uH9MNYxSao5AibkVlkLjLcHibvG6yR93VJDibnRXOiaqFiccOdg/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;max-inline-size: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;width: 69px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></section></td><td valign="middle" align="center" height="81" style="margin: 5px 10px;word-break: break-all;hyphens: auto;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-width="99px" width="99px" data-ratio="1" data-w="300" data-backw="47" data-backh="47" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZficyibw72OWmSMvgNNjSWoDHlf7aSgplp7dtCDAEFtJKHBnC8qaLHSIeQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;max-inline-size: 100%;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;width: 69px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></section></td><td valign="middle" align="center" colspan="1" rowspan="1" width="null" style="margin: 5px 10px;word-break: break-all;hyphens: auto;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="13" data-backw="13" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="69" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="69" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="99px" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwaUyIuHQngl5c5PD5uQEXrh3UfLLLmbNNIYHsl0uM1fFRJCOicUgwgiaAoBNbUmeBiahGEFZBm9uXAw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;max-inline-size: 100%;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;width: 69px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></section></td></tr></tbody></table><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">感谢你的每一个分享 | 点赞 | 在看</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">SPECIAL THANKS</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">▼▼▼</span><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;"></span></section>

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