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禾略是这样看房地产的2019年(观点篇)

发布于 2019-01-30

<p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);">关于2018年,禾略有若干发现——</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">1、房地产各项指标发展增速,围绕均值波动,只要市场出现超涨,政策面就会收紧,一旦超跌,政策面就会放松</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.4838709677419355" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzj1LgYt0tSlCN79wibicvJsOAyaYU40TeAJ7HBc1K6LVtLiaKcVd6ia3P1icEooW6slKUkMTnFlkZ3auA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1023" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2、中国政府调控的核心,不是房价绝对值,而是房价的复合增长率</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">3、在全国层面,房价四年复合增长率,控制范围是30%,政府对房地产行业还是很宽容厚待的</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.4857423795476893" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzj1LgYt0tSlCN79wibicvJsO6xhOefRlmBt6KSOZibvic6RwicjqLFnnMSNZLcqL6wm516xjibkGmf6picA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1017" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">4、2016-2018年,100%的一线城市,房价累计增速大于全国</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.725328947368421" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzj1LgYt0tSlCN79wibicvJsO5CITrljEruy1Qe5UHf83uicr15oXtJP6TVVZXMxbQwnbTHByS4iab3eA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="608" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">5、在二三四线城市当中,有60%以上,房价跑赢全国,精耕二三四线城市,受益不亚于一线城市</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">6、在六七线城市当中,跑赢全国的城市,占比低于30%,对开发商的实力和专业度要求比较高</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">7、最近三年TOP15开发商的数据告诉我们,应对调控,保持领先的方法是</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">熊市做高端</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.6561360874848117" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzj1LgYt0tSlCN79wibicvJsOhZo06MNa4sCpwz1gybqwJ3JJBibmhD5GianYr656Le65z8mM1B7n9Uzw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="823" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">牛市抢地盘</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.6142506142506142" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzj1LgYt0tSlCN79wibicvJsOXfGPqyGMvpLEicPYb5Qr5ZZ8KyE8mibvrIbxEFNxy8pLWeYibw6tIfHzQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="814" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">8、等级越高、房价越高的城市,马太效应越明显,市场越容易出现豪宅化趋势,也是政府重点调控的城市</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.4781725888324873" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzj1LgYt0tSlCN79wibicvJsO2iaM5E8FItxgsTic5xzlGfgGZFjRpcnnmC1fYeztkofUtXqqOX8JibOKA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="985" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">9、城市质量水平影响房单价水平,城市规模水平影响销售额水平,同样是二线城市,因为质量水平和规模水平不同,投资策略上也有较大的差异</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">10、城市等级越高,市场波动幅度越大,踩对周期节奏和赚足利润越为重要,一旦站岗,就需要耐心熬过漫漫长夜</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.44097560975609756" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzj1LgYt0tSlCN79wibicvJsOmNqCvW6pxfyYhXJUQHUVruYNUjicqtCRk0tGT8icvf0StzIYwUGlrnJw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1025" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">11、同一城市里,不同区域的市场周期不同,等级越高的城市,差异越明显</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">12、周期长的城市更适合慢工出细活</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.7838258164852255" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzj1LgYt0tSlCN79wibicvJsOxOO2ZFX8A4dBOXAJWL6zyibKzibwm2SLCIEs9uicdLUPy0tVsCpoeuSvw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="643" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">13、城市发展阶段不同,价值成长最快的土地区域不同</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.47373637264618434" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzj1LgYt0tSlCN79wibicvJsOxLsiafhwKKvPkRy7UoFeCzksDte1XMDL0kBBHLzDAQibwyFJ2ic3eAz3w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1009" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">14、支付力强的客群,已经出现由东部沿海向中部迁移的苗头</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);">展望2019年,禾略的部分推断——</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">1、全国房地产整体处于低风险区域,销售额稳,销售面积涨,销售单价跌,全国市场,将出现结构性变化,“加量不加价”</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.4980276134122288" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzj1LgYt0tSlCN79wibicvJsOjj6AKehuvyCpQUtZmSLb3HEnyuPzx3aiabRQYZcnjSS66xzGbPXNcxA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1014" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2、六成以上一二三线城市,房价增速放缓或有下行压力</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">3、六成以上四五六线城市,房价增速加快或有上行动力</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">4、2019年1月处于上行周期的城市主要集中于京津冀、沪苏浙</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">5、至2020年最有潜力的黑马城市-莆田、内江、武威、玉溪、六盘水</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5578279266572638" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzj1LgYt0tSlCN79wibicvJsOOibGSJMaibCmm2utePHKsXNeNGicgczBw1D1MwnINAjibdgW0WFQHHs6nw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1418" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">6、深圳,将迎来全面高端化,环深圳外溢需求,也将全面爆发,正处于周期低位,适合去环深圳拿地</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.47373637264618434" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzj1LgYt0tSlCN79wibicvJsOxLsiafhwKKvPkRy7UoFeCzksDte1XMDL0kBBHLzDAQibwyFJ2ic3eAz3w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1009" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">7、成都,销售规模不变的情况下,房价将上一个台阶</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.41802067946824223" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzj1LgYt0tSlCN79wibicvJsOnbEDRf6EcdH6xMRicO1fZ1nSqxAicv6e9cDicRKutr5byjPW6jXtHPfcA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1354" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">8、乌鲁木齐,销售额与房价,有齐涨的潜力</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.4306930693069307" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzj1LgYt0tSlCN79wibicvJsOwAfs4GpRicKicR0AL8nc6IFIicQkGibpmp6cmGKHKQ6HZND9rFrSnk2iakw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1010" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">9、嘉兴房价或将有大幅提高升</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">10、一线城市,价格依旧坚挺,但房子变得不好卖</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">11、二三线城市,容易出销售规模,但整体价格涨不动</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">12、2019年10月,苏州、南通、无锡,正处于销售黄金期,出货不要犹豫,拿地不要追高,坚定,理性</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.47647647647647645" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzj1LgYt0tSlCN79wibicvJsOjjgrOXdlNMOV7QRkssUmiahr4tlVgKE6ViaK79XjvibCI8Yu4wOwdDAwA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="999" style="" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><strong>面对2019年,禾略还有4大建议</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">企业经营策略建议(一)</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">追求规模的行业领导者——自我颠覆</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">追求规模-核心是保证现金流,一直活下去,打的是防御战;一般是消费者心中的行业头部企业,如万科。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">对于这样的企业,禾略建议,最好的方式,是自我颠覆自我攻击。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">可以从两方面入手:</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">①升级产品线</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从主流品类到全品类,从产品到作品的升级。(对应前文的重新定义产品内容)</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">②城市下沉</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从主流一二三线城市,下沉四五线机会城市,疆域扩展。(对应前文的城市分级与变类、重新定义城市-城市温度,即周期的研究内容)</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">企业经营策略建议(二)</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">追求利润的行业追赶者——在领导者,难以放弃的优势领域中,寻找机会</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">追求利润-核心是提高自有资金比例,储备资金,以便在合适的周期,抓住机会做大,打的是进攻战;一般是有一定实力的房企,如金茂。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">他们是行业追赶者,在行业领导者,无法放弃的优势领域中,寻找机会是重点。行业领导,最大的优势和软肋,就是高周转与成本适配。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">针对这两点,禾略有两条策略建议:</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">①针对高周转-慢工出细活</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">适用范围:全国主周期长的城市。自身收益最大化的同时,攻击了行业领导者。(对应周期研究内容与重新定义产品内容)</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">②针对产品适配-一分钱一分货</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">适用范围:在全国主周期短,但房价相对高的城市,以高品质抢夺客户。(对应回归均值研究内容)</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">企业经营策略建议(三)</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">追求品牌的行业创新者——精益投资,收敛与聚焦</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">追求品牌-核心是确定立足点,占据某一细分市场,形成竞争壁垒,保护自我,打的是侧翼战。如绿城。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">对于他们而言精益投资、懂得收敛与聚焦是关键。禾略建议,可从四方面入手:</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">①寻找单位时间内,成长价值最大的城市,实现爆发式增长</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">;(对应城市分级与变类内容)</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">②寻找区域中心城市,有带动作用,由点铺面</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">(对应城市圈研究内容,详见禾略2018年新春篇年报)</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">③聚焦品类,匹配土地,找到有这类土地属性,价值最大的城市</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">;(对应重新定义土地内容)</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">④聚焦客户,定位出价能力最强的客群,甚至不是容量最大的</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">;(对应重新定义客户内容)</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">企业经营策略建议(四)</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">追求自有资金收益率——机动游击</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">追求自有资金收益率-核心是效率与回报率,在机动中扩大势力,打的是游击战;一般是实力偏弱的房企。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">禾略有三点落地建议:</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">①寻找周期短</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">,且未来房价累计增长率高的城市</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">(对应回归均值中,房价累计增速研究内容)</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">②在此类城市中,寻找土地增值潜力最大的区域</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">(对应重新定义土地内容)</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">③定位潜在客户规模量大的客群</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">(对应重新定义客户内容)</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从回归均值,到回归分析,再到回归价值,对应禾略对世界的憧憬——</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">第一,让世界更理性,当我们提出观点的时候,必须从数据出发,而不是仅凭感觉与经验,少一些鸡汤,多一些科学。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">第二,赋能普通人,再牛的大咖能量也有限,所以更重要的,也许是提供一个好平台,好机制,好工具,让普通人也能做出不普通的贡献。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">第三,当企业经营可以做到前两点,就有无限的可能,也就是别人眼里的成功经验。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">—— TO BE CONTINUED ——</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 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0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(87, 107, 149);text-decoration: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" data-linktype="2">蚌埠</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=7&amp;sn=1bc72e377ffc3b621c2886d68c437515&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07adc8c50a3e1409197892c508ad9c27a6b52f8e4dde12740baf5674f5a7fa6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(87, 107, 149);text-decoration: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" data-linktype="2">合肥</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831491&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=10e3d481f7fd0ff46dafe2648cd3ddfb&amp;chksm=8351799cb426f08a5118705d6b85487fa97dd013a2aee842be719ee13086aab8dee370b54185&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(87, 107, 149);text-decoration: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" data-linktype="2">南京</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9ffda0c7d9667d6700966a8bab12eccf&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a4e94a2471b2d59264ed4460e0567c63095fad9c5704541a546d7bc23584a&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(87, 107, 149);text-decoration: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" data-linktype="2">上海临港</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831065&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2ffb60d98d02ebcab655c55d34d0acbf&amp;chksm=83517746b426fe509cc721e0e3acf05fd1f60b8695dc3b66c08c0a7aa917e7471b013b02c2c2&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(87, 107, 149);text-decoration: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" data-linktype="2">太原</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830804&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f571d8218b897b21571a6b2f497d3a1b&amp;chksm=8351744bb426fd5d509591673f4082563a02342283f53dfda255ad33304e6746d6448051b9ea&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(87, 107, 149);text-decoration: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;outline: 0px;" data-linktype="2">温州</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830454&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=4e7c3289190e2a69c5fb20f2ae8a6d94&amp;chksm=835175e9b426fcffa5f65cafe5274b1c296caf1a51e13ef4c7920c5a18847bef3c7b13c2bfd0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(87, 107, 149);text-decoration: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;outline: 0px;" data-linktype="2">昆明</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830295&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f680ffa2ddf52783e9a7730971520d48&amp;chksm=83517248b426fb5e0efc1e5c62d15b173e4d23ab7aafaab82c6ce861e98d96271fe5dc7db798&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(87, 107, 149);text-decoration: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;outline: 0px;" data-linktype="2">嘉兴</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830278&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8441ac780477cd9def8d4e9d7866f143&amp;chksm=83517259b426fb4f93ff50f1c07d7b830f16ec4d1e0c23f64ef15a78a056ae301274ffbb8ec3&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(87, 107, 149);text-decoration: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;outline: 0px;" data-linktype="2">重庆</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830196&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7a599cf338734c1d41c6fa16005b1641&amp;chksm=835172ebb426fbfdda6873adbeddc124ae670de675a7c36d11977106150a1d924572ea70f299&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(87, 107, 149);text-decoration: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;outline: 0px;" data-linktype="2">成都</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830221&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f5994dbfe9fa00ffce4b5be1a69f3244&amp;chksm=83517292b426fb8419e771cf48ea94de01fc7dc909b4e8c2759c6423b8be6080bc5bd1c248cc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(87, 107, 149);text-decoration: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;outline: 0px;" data-linktype="2">深圳</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=cd78421e4f2e724f552f8eefc65e0236&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa26aed46ed566bc1f8ffa11498370fed14fa9d0690795a3eff5a186c63a03d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(87, 107, 149);text-decoration: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;outline: 0px;" data-linktype="2">上海</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829512&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=421f2b766d75009082de8fc1e81cd8d2&amp;chksm=83517157b426f84197c93fd852a3e3f93019c9d81e099784ad0aa09f326ca9dd33a0edb7cfd7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(87, 107, 149);text-decoration: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;outline: 0px;" data-linktype="2">珠三角</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829480&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c77baf137c109f1017170a708548d37b&amp;chksm=835171b7b426f8a1d942708988b8f4bd875366f5928d1db99470ccad6958aa0c8cd47b292c23&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(87, 107, 149);text-decoration: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;outline: 0px;" data-linktype="2">雄安新区</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=401964235&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8839375241e6a7e69f49aec108ca1ad6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(87, 107, 149);text-decoration: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;outline: 0px;" data-linktype="2">无锡</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=203026648&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=466dca69ff3eb746e2e5c21831d57f0f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(87, 107, 149);text-decoration: none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;outline: 0px;" data-linktype="2">北京</a>&nbsp;| </span></span></p><p><br /></p>

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