禾略是这样解读城市的，成都篇

<p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">欢迎在WiFi环境下，配合食用，千人千面的成都</span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><qqmusic frameborder="0" jumpurlkey="" albumid="000jE4g74VS43p" otherid="001bhwUC1gE6ep" musictype="1" src="/cgi-bin/readtemplate?t=tmpl/qqmusic_tmpl&amp;singer=%E8%B5%B5%E9%9B%B7%20-%20%E6%97%A0%E6%B3%95%E9%95%BF%E5%A4%A7&amp;music_name=%E6%88%90%E9%83%BD&amp;albumurl=https%3A%2F%2Fy.gtimg.cn%2Fmusic%2Fphoto_new%2FT002R68x68M000000jE4g74VS43p.jpg&amp;musictype=1" play_length="328" singer="赵雷&nbsp;-&nbsp;无法长大" music_name="成都" audiourl="http://ws.stream.qqmusic.qq.com/C100000FR5GV0lwW18.m4a?fromtag=46" albumurl="https://y.gtimg.cn/music/photo_new/T002R68x68M000000jE4g74VS43p.jpg" mid="001bhwUC1gE6ep" musicid="108963136" scrolling="no" class="res_iframe qqmusic_iframe js_editor_qqmusic"></qqmusic><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><qqmusic frameborder="0" jumpurlkey="" albumid="000T5bZR1cz7Bw" otherid="000CQMRt368I7P" musictype="1" src="/cgi-bin/readtemplate?t=tmpl/qqmusic_tmpl&amp;singer=%E8%B0%A2%E5%B8%9D%20-%20%E4%BA%BA.%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A.%E9%92%B1&amp;music_name=%E8%80%81%E5%AD%90%E5%B0%B1%E7%88%B1%E5%91%86%E5%88%B0%E6%88%90%E9%83%BD&amp;albumurl=https%3A%2F%2Fy.gtimg.cn%2Fmusic%2Fphoto_new%2FT002R68x68M000000T5bZR1cz7Bw.jpg&amp;musictype=1" play_length="206" singer="谢帝&nbsp;-&nbsp;人.社会.钱" music_name="老子就爱呆到成都" audiourl="http://ws.stream.qqmusic.qq.com/C100000CQMRt368I7P.m4a?fromtag=46" albumurl="https://y.gtimg.cn/music/photo_new/T002R68x68M000000T5bZR1cz7Bw.jpg" mid="000CQMRt368I7P" musicid="106528239" scrolling="no" class="res_iframe qqmusic_iframe js_editor_qqmusic"></qqmusic></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">成都，一座正在走出舒适区的城市。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">老成都人，常年活跃在老城区里，地震中继续打麻将，雾霾时先发朋友圈调侃，吃完火锅再聊会天，一边喝茶一边掏耳朵。<br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">当城南的金融白领沉浸在年终奖的亢奋中时，</span></em></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">他们会气定神闲地说，我有五套房；</span></em></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></em></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">当城东的码农敲完一串代码，幻想有钱进账时，</span></em></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">他们会气定神闲地说，我有五套房；</span></em></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></em></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">当传媒精英签下大单，站在窗前展望人生时，</span></em></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">依旧会听到他们气定神闲地说，我有五套房。</span></em></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">其实小编还没去过成都，只是想象了一下。</span></em></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">而在他们触及不到的地方，成都正发生着翻天覆地的变化——</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">“房价越来越高”、“城区越来越大”、“不止四川人，越来越多全国各地的人定居在此”、“节奏开始越来越快”、“在全国的排名越来越靠前”、“人情味越来越淡”……</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">他们一边为成都的发展感到自豪，一边也在为成都的变化而担忧。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">感性解读城市，千人千面。有赵雷的“成都”，也有谢帝的“老子就爱呆到成都”，靠“感觉”,也能发现问题，但不能解决问题。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">面对变化，我们<strong>从数据入手，量化解读城市，描绘一个客观的成都。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5CicFmszpvibttaRic92YJOnvWOQNtFo5hrycuEibKtkmhyupK9RKYfGCY5bXFu9Wlk0tibTR9QRUW1Nw/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="width: 217px;height: 29px;" class="" data-ratio="0.134" data-w="500" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">这是一个什么样的城市？</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">成都，工业化后期的强二线城市，和南京、武汉、郑州等快速发展（房价暴涨）的城市属同类，</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">城区扩张处于“摊大饼”阶段，温江、郫县、新都等地，最具地产开发价值。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">到2021年，成都将跃升为新一线，实力或等同于2016年的深圳（房价又一轮暴涨）。届时，简阳、新津等地会成为新的热点开发区域。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">成都，已不再安逸。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">禾略是这样解读的——</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">1）转化——将城市转为数据，清洗城市基础数据</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5CicFmszpvibttaRic92YJOnvKEsNmqjmPzNnmsPp7rAEJJrRHvk2AW9UEepJdL6wicM0ia37Br6psYuA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2）定类——量化分析城市类别，及其发展路径。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">根据“人地钱”三维度，通过禾略研发的“城市综合得分计算模型”、“城市发展路径模型”计算而得。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5CicFmszpvibttaRic92YJOnvQicRvnQo17X0KPSgxle4IZdYOsUmdzANT3GthMLZKYSdu02mcJqia9yA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">成都2017年工业化率41.7%，正处于工业化后期，工业开始升级，往高端化发展，实力持续快速增长。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">到2020年工业化率将降至37.4%，进入产业转型期，届时服务业转向主导，开始去工业化。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5CicFmszpvibttaRic92YJOnvpWm1d7yReDYo4V3rSucPazzEg5aF3MEnRWCPazZgiaanqdUPbRdDiaicg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">3）定序——数据化城市对标研究，分别根据2016年、2012年的城市综合得分，将120个城市，做聚类计算。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">成都2016年属于强二线城市，和南京、武汉、郑州等同类，到2021年，将成为新一线城市，和天津、广州同类，城市实力等同于2016年的深圳。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5CicFmszpvibttaRic92YJOnvgVnWH4p6Yj6JCL4Yque5ibibM6T3MXjeAeRBibarXF6uic04jiaRxficrNjw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.6394230769230769" data-w="832" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">2016年城市聚类结果</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5CicFmszpvibttaRic92YJOnvhtu4UwDOcHjL4gZ77ojzzhSX5uYoIJAA4OXrO7rgMkibMC6mQutHsqQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.6843501326259946" data-w="754" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">2021年城市聚类结果</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">4）定距——量化城市扩张节奏，根据土地“PIE”指标，通过禾略研发的“城市空间扩张模型”计算判断</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">成都核心区呈“南下”的趋势，由老城区发展到高新区，继而扩张至天府新区，现如今呈“四向扩张”的发展态势，温江、郫县、新都等地，最具大规模住宅开发价值。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2020年则延伸至郊区，简阳、新津等地成为新热点。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5CicFmszpvibttaRic92YJOnvmTWGkAWt2Y5yeVibDZPesW4PAkbk0OUU7Xicy40XNleUHXLVfJ48ziaibg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5CicFmszpvibttaRic92YJOnvWOQNtFo5hrycuEibKtkmhyupK9RKYfGCY5bXFu9Wlk0tibTR9QRUW1Nw/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="width: 217px;height: 29px;" class="" data-ratio="0.134" data-w="500" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">城市的扩展带来什么地产机会？</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">成都南区将成新的核心区，适合开发高端住宅，</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">而东南区具备较明显的豪宅区特征，</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">西南区则是主流客群未来居住区域。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">通过计算，其中【航空港、温江城区、新都新城】</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这三个板块最具地产开发价值。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">只是地不多了，尤其是航空港；</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">但我们通过计算“剩余居住用地”，<br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">可获知哪里还有地，有多少地。<br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">禾略是这样解读的——</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">1）转化——将土地转化为数据，通过“PIE”模型，整理计算土地数据</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5CicFmszpvibttaRic92YJOnvNAxia4YBY1Qr34Kr3iak8w7PiaSLEPhJNKBuaZMFE6wxGXJHbP0gpLC2A/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">将成都2020年路网数据化，可以看出——</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">1、东边有无法大规模建设的山脉；</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2、南边路网非常密集；</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">3、东南方向受制于山脉，但又受益于路网密集，还处于城区发展方向，未来城区价值+交通便捷+山居环境，具备比较明显的豪宅区特征；</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">4、南边毫无争议会成为成都新的城市核心区；</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">5、西南与东南基本面类似，区别在于西南外向联系度更好，腹地广阔，这决定了西南会成为城市建设的热点区域，必将成为成都主流客群未来最主流的居住区域。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5CicFmszpvibttaRic92YJOnvAqhALvsIJHt52sxHfxzVfT57L0ZVVubeIhzSt4hicvxWwAKzAsiap7lg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.710091743119266" data-w="1090" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2）&nbsp; 定类——量化回答土地价值分布情况，根据“PIE+房价”划分城市土地圈层</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">使用pie数据，进行网格化的评分，红色表示城区，可以明显看到红色的格子向东向南延伸，反映成都核心区南移</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5CicFmszpvibttaRic92YJOnvToL89kLqn40GoOHuszfKFQ32861cY7wOZ80vW7COFZE0Az4sicpPcwQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.7988338192419825" data-w="686" /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">而使用pie数据，进行板块评分，则可以量化城市土地圈层的划分</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5CicFmszpvibttaRic92YJOnvFwXL8OUZYlGLtc1Fxon9u2zmqlJPf2ZH43FLD7v3CbcicFKaes7IPAA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">3）定序——量化土地机会及进入时间，根据“土地升值模型”，计算机会型土地的分布及进入时间</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">结合现状和未来发展情况，成都的【航空港、温江城区、新都新城】都具备高投资价值，但地都不多了。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5CicFmszpvibttaRic92YJOnv6QBV4TdBsulnrc9HcV5HDn164Zc2IcW16P4WWkGfhQgIp4Ne1icltOg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">但通过空间地理大数据的计算，</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">可以计算“剩余住宅用地”的分布</span></strong></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5CicFmszpvibttaRic92YJOnvqMVakQ2DoCuZpricJN0WDDP32Z1eiaNfp6LmrCStzMha9GB8fjQULeuQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.43341213553979513" data-w="1269" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">以温州为例，中心城区的居住用地主要分布在南部和东部</span></p><section style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5CicFmszpvibttaRic92YJOnvWOQNtFo5hrycuEibKtkmhyupK9RKYfGCY5bXFu9Wlk0tibTR9QRUW1Nw/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="width: 217px;height: 29px;" class="" data-ratio="0.134" data-w="500" /></p><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></section></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">市场有什么表现？</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">成都，正值住宅需求高峰期，</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">房价不存在泡沫，甚至有些被低估。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">未来五年，预测量价齐升，</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">房价高地从核心区蔓延至南边。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"> </span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">禾略是这样解读的——</span></strong></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">1）房价泡沫模型——量化城市房价合理度，通过将房价增速，分别和收入增速和城市发展速度对比，分析房价泡沫问题。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5CicFmszpvibttaRic92YJOnvs1oN26dc7sCiaHUgLcy3J2QaKBXz3HUZeCeAGdVj1pTKevrl9fqkic3Q/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">成都房价增速均低于人均收入增速、城市发展增速，房价无泡沫，且存在被低估。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5CicFmszpvibttaRic92YJOnvA8O03cBic6JGlWqAgS1ZiaHffKQtsibdLnNyndpP9DsEwM1zrwgblW9bg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"> <br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2）量价预测分析——成都未来五年预测量价齐升，销售量和出让土地成正相关，销售单价和城市经济成正相关。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5CicFmszpvibttaRic92YJOnv9NRKiazkdjVhLxDuBd5QkNrNjvX7bp2Hj482VuFBS8ibQw6fUgZDWDfQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">3）房价现状——房价高地从核心区蔓延至南边</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"> </span></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5CicFmszpvibttaRic92YJOnvM6oyp6EFsLbFiav8cKNWkPiaZXhgmdgKLuE7ppHrAo9Bv31oY2SSHgKg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.7886658795749705" data-w="847" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">去除山体面积的房价得分网格图</span><br /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5CicFmszpvibttaRic92YJOnvWOQNtFo5hrycuEibKtkmhyupK9RKYfGCY5bXFu9Wlk0tibTR9QRUW1Nw/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="width: 217px;height: 29px;" class="" data-ratio="0.134" data-w="500" /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 14px;">小结：成都，成都</span></strong></span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">老成都人可以守在旧城区，继续一言不合就骂“瓜娃子”。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">反正成都要蜕变成产业转型期的新一线，他们有5套房；</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">成都核心区要南移，东南区要发展豪宅，他们有5套房；</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">成都房地产市场竞争激烈，他们会再买5套房。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">猜你想看 | 房地产研究新方向之<strong><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);">【跨界思考】</span></strong>系列</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong>房地</strong></span><span style="font-size: 12px;background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>产</strong></span><span style="background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 14px;"><strong>×大数据</strong></span></span></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829662&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=a0f9b47beae15eaada8d20b39fb26c21&amp;chksm=835170c1b426f9d7c8ecebbe881b254293dea7c826683c2e381693d874915dedef067a98d419&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">1、如何理解城市的发展和土地的价值？</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829874&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=89cea6591f505400948575845f627b73&amp;chksm=8351702db426f93b8b50893dc664a17b3e69dd5d980ea96e16def2c758deddc0cc7b906069dd&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">2、要是有一天，马云也做房地产</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829841&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=4c8c80fb3b7b721df0a9fd204ac07f66&amp;chksm=8351700eb426f918410cde0800635745e898437602799c7dfd6c38a623ec784eb196dcec16f7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">3、悦府开盘谣言不断，如何打破信息不对称？</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829718&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=a5fdb1b706d12d9f75d4af2d772375f7&amp;chksm=83517089b426f99f4e7d16d12554059e0ae02d17b0d32646d49cc15ba7bf084db5fbc01484b2&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">4、围棋都AI了，地产还靠经验？</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"></span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829590&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=a89abd34200c237cf3773686a1486ee2&amp;chksm=83517109b426f81fa20b8dfd28a6d572bfb11b42ef10050fe26a1612f0c54dd6e92bd07e8610&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">5、两年跟踪研究 | 大数据回答房地产不一样的问题</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829293&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9c248869ff7a1a03947bd160b429927b&amp;chksm=83516e72b426e7646af7fb4cc65a4904a29c83336f46a87f4b253f2eb893c4dbd9315a65cab8&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">6、<span style="font-size: 14px;">你们想知道的房地产模型算法在这里</span></span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829251&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9d13ee02bf8c26fc14cc6f05790061c0&amp;chksm=83516e5cb426e74a760e05894bce91006149e2b3131a74e1a2169436425571f861adab77a76b&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">7、2017房企投资指南</span></a><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829185&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7e4da293d7535f9488b6c9c319968357&amp;chksm=83516e9eb426e7889fc88381b07b62e19df334267ac060b7fb883002899c2e495adb9fffe178&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">8、禾略送给专业地产人的圣诞礼物</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=206752846&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9b1148eb7ff37e89f2cb1c12dcecb8ea&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">9、就是给您提供点数据——致上海市委书记的一封信</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><strong>大城小事×禾略观点</strong></span><span style="background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;"><strong><br /></strong></span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=cd78421e4f2e724f552f8eefc65e0236&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa26aed46ed566bc1f8ffa11498370fed14fa9d0690795a3eff5a186c63a03d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">1、参考深圳标准，上海房价还要涨46%</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829563&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9e468d74b0dc9a156fcdb7bb4944551a&amp;chksm=83517164b426f8722e59ebee139130e104a9d6cf46ce22adeaf03fe0c6861e33a901a4246723&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">2、嘉兴，有地万事足</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829512&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=421f2b766d75009082de8fc1e81cd8d2&amp;chksm=83517157b426f84197c93fd852a3e3f93019c9d81e099784ad0aa09f326ca9dd33a0edb7cfd7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">3、在珠三角中，谁是下一个雄安新区？</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829480&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c77baf137c109f1017170a708548d37b&amp;chksm=835171b7b426f8a1d942708988b8f4bd875366f5928d1db99470ccad6958aa0c8cd47b292c23&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">4、独家 | 为什么要建雄安新区？</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"></span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829214&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=e245560eeadafae388de6a7d7577e04e&amp;chksm=83516e81b426e7976c5c6d425b4a39ade86d0e12ed288238933e3662f48c58d57c4efeb5c801&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">5、深圳房价下一轮还能不能涨？</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829123&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=dfa4dc6c2538443c36261850676e445f&amp;chksm=83516edcb426e7ca756d2a80930aa8be108cbd730cb05573393378c60e9c9e8ce88067b00c06&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">6、客研圈观测的新物种——屌英</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=402337281&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=01025bafd1b30fc52ccffa541506497c&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">7、花了上亿的设计费，望京SOHO还是租不出去</span></a><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=401847225&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=1ae51240243bad61b1e0a316994f362a&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">8、北上广深未来十年的房价走势</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=400672879&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2b70716f8cc9b44365df50e1243cb8ec&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">9、上海房地产投资策略地图</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">解忧杂派军×技术流</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829733&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=3f4241c78a32428b8e4221f32e45f533&amp;chksm=835170bab426f9ac7d68b787ff9864174ed4ccbac8750117c6a26106d0a6275d2e978d3c1498&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">1、在禾略实习是一种怎样的体验</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829841&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=9779a066dfc0da9bb0e7ab3431721161&amp;chksm=8351700eb426f918902b9f9c61a6cc9902653b4b9f7908eed632867330dd834656d5d7cf9a8b&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">2、在禾略实习BUG回顾</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829379&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c0f0079307b8b0971c8b1d2e9e4c2adf&amp;chksm=835171dcb426f8cae8b68d38d7321790c39ce7069af846d43aae885c7f78b3f117e9ddd210ab&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">3、好奇心 | 做一个万科同款“大数据分析平台”需要多少钱</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829303&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=d6cc03f58eb0e21641a717312d5dda65&amp;chksm=83516e68b426e77e04faae951eb1671a164107acd72d104c7f71e8309b113f03a28cbdfe8bc4&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">4、大数据教你如何关爱女性</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"></span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649828728&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=733857ccf3d9e1be62cac2872eca573a&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">5、一个没有图书的图书馆，却大受追捧</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649828712&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c62e708c4b22a6d9511a9431e2077c52&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">6、居家户型设计成情趣酒店套房，为什么你还觉得合理？</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649828677&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7c875db73d5b1cd5b80d82dfc68c7be2&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">7、如何拿对一块地，少奋斗30年</span></a><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649828638&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9dd9532d4b315ffa866d7f062210cbcf&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">8、数据会说谎</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=206786995&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2cf4dfdbf624ee798ea5a04a48402a53&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">9、万科城市地图第二春</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>2017年市场短周期预测</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">（每月12号更新）</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">珠三角地区<span style="font-size: 12px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829288&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=bafb04e8b5ee2bacc63eba3228935085&amp;chksm=83516e77b426e761e6d70197138964ba6cd488b358fe193ec13aaf59ff070de1d49ce0c0d34f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">2月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829332&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f60cb83ae739bb39e06e8347ef40d69a&amp;chksm=83516e0bb426e71d23d19f6cf6a884e596d980d8702bc0aff16ea6af89ded59e6ab9ebfa70c0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">3月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829457&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6ed54b4f34b78edbb6f90d1c974dc4f2&amp;chksm=8351718eb426f898d95531d2bc63408aa3f62453070925f69840e725e8c8e3e1541f471f7091&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">4月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829536&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=afd1eae35736e77003ddcb13f3f28e61&amp;chksm=8351717fb426f8697c1b88caa536ecf0b86ca0ea82007f46ea4c49524d284c5fbb8b24eaae69&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">5月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829645&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=85248135d55f4cc72278bb099e0ae417&amp;chksm=835170d2b426f9c428dd05c5751f8b3a79d7727cebac23097fa16f25fdea0137915b217f6bde&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">6月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829783&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b1151b97fdebc49102df125a87ed5935&amp;chksm=83517048b426f95ec769dddecdcbf59072bd05e0e4e84ddda437eda5bae6a09dbb2d8510767f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">7月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829841&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=ba5f9cab33c5edcea4e5a8b32f40ca9c&amp;chksm=8351700eb426f9188a9fbadfb06f94431dfa464c512eac51e06d42eb647d5d2a0cb53f38b1fc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">8月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=ddcff78831ef35c1567385c035f4f9d6&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa2c9015eb00400546b627214b1aa7bceac9d60325d15cb3b02b170f0c9fb37&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">9月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830098&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6e17da0729c31b4e18adad55abf1cced&amp;chksm=8351730db426fa1b0d830e0ca3cbd545734939625250ccf831aaa7992cdc06e30717b32b9f4f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">10月</a>、</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">长三角地区<span style="font-size: 12px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829288&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=bafb04e8b5ee2bacc63eba3228935085&amp;chksm=83516e77b426e761e6d70197138964ba6cd488b358fe193ec13aaf59ff070de1d49ce0c0d34f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">2月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829332&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f60cb83ae739bb39e06e8347ef40d69a&amp;chksm=83516e0bb426e71d23d19f6cf6a884e596d980d8702bc0aff16ea6af89ded59e6ab9ebfa70c0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">3月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829457&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6ed54b4f34b78edbb6f90d1c974dc4f2&amp;chksm=8351718eb426f898d95531d2bc63408aa3f62453070925f69840e725e8c8e3e1541f471f7091&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">4月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829536&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=afd1eae35736e77003ddcb13f3f28e61&amp;chksm=8351717fb426f8697c1b88caa536ecf0b86ca0ea82007f46ea4c49524d284c5fbb8b24eaae69&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">5月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829645&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=85248135d55f4cc72278bb099e0ae417&amp;chksm=835170d2b426f9c428dd05c5751f8b3a79d7727cebac23097fa16f25fdea0137915b217f6bde&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">6月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829783&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b1151b97fdebc49102df125a87ed5935&amp;chksm=83517048b426f95ec769dddecdcbf59072bd05e0e4e84ddda437eda5bae6a09dbb2d8510767f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">7月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829841&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=ba5f9cab33c5edcea4e5a8b32f40ca9c&amp;chksm=8351700eb426f9188a9fbadfb06f94431dfa464c512eac51e06d42eb647d5d2a0cb53f38b1fc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">8月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=52e5c0d38a682b1c69685de472e5967c&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa2ced3abc468a56a38a8cf0d98f590ccd8f7a29cbe6e0600c66853f900db6e&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">9月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830098&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=a2df5eb804546dae571f06d4f0220ac6&amp;chksm=8351730db426fa1b34b511f5620ac792141facdb9e21592a1ba782ecc7f04677080ef47ad451&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">10月</a>、</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">中西部地区<span style="font-size: 12px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829288&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=bafb04e8b5ee2bacc63eba3228935085&amp;chksm=83516e77b426e761e6d70197138964ba6cd488b358fe193ec13aaf59ff070de1d49ce0c0d34f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">2月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829332&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f60cb83ae739bb39e06e8347ef40d69a&amp;chksm=83516e0bb426e71d23d19f6cf6a884e596d980d8702bc0aff16ea6af89ded59e6ab9ebfa70c0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">3月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829457&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6ed54b4f34b78edbb6f90d1c974dc4f2&amp;chksm=8351718eb426f898d95531d2bc63408aa3f62453070925f69840e725e8c8e3e1541f471f7091&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">4月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829536&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=afd1eae35736e77003ddcb13f3f28e61&amp;chksm=8351717fb426f8697c1b88caa536ecf0b86ca0ea82007f46ea4c49524d284c5fbb8b24eaae69&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">5月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829645&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=85248135d55f4cc72278bb099e0ae417&amp;chksm=835170d2b426f9c428dd05c5751f8b3a79d7727cebac23097fa16f25fdea0137915b217f6bde&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">6月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829783&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b1151b97fdebc49102df125a87ed5935&amp;chksm=83517048b426f95ec769dddecdcbf59072bd05e0e4e84ddda437eda5bae6a09dbb2d8510767f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">7月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829841&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=ba5f9cab33c5edcea4e5a8b32f40ca9c&amp;chksm=8351700eb426f9188a9fbadfb06f94431dfa464c512eac51e06d42eb647d5d2a0cb53f38b1fc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">8月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=4&amp;sn=b4dbd6e2e114a7ffc1bd5d762accb012&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa2981ee49c6ec0cca1d19817788d23c42bef941415640b77b2b7487ea03827&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">9月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830098&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=4ef2c67447e82da0538bd6bc897031a0&amp;chksm=8351730db426fa1b2c2e2a3ee1e88820ca738162efec5e11dadd64b4d41f711f7305cfd0f234&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">10月</a>、</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">北部地区<span style="font-size: 12px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829288&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=bafb04e8b5ee2bacc63eba3228935085&amp;chksm=83516e77b426e761e6d70197138964ba6cd488b358fe193ec13aaf59ff070de1d49ce0c0d34f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">2月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829332&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f60cb83ae739bb39e06e8347ef40d69a&amp;chksm=83516e0bb426e71d23d19f6cf6a884e596d980d8702bc0aff16ea6af89ded59e6ab9ebfa70c0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">3月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829457&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6ed54b4f34b78edbb6f90d1c974dc4f2&amp;chksm=8351718eb426f898d95531d2bc63408aa3f62453070925f69840e725e8c8e3e1541f471f7091&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">4月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829536&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=afd1eae35736e77003ddcb13f3f28e61&amp;chksm=8351717fb426f8697c1b88caa536ecf0b86ca0ea82007f46ea4c49524d284c5fbb8b24eaae69&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">5月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829645&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=85248135d55f4cc72278bb099e0ae417&amp;chksm=835170d2b426f9c428dd05c5751f8b3a79d7727cebac23097fa16f25fdea0137915b217f6bde&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">6月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829783&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b1151b97fdebc49102df125a87ed5935&amp;chksm=83517048b426f95ec769dddecdcbf59072bd05e0e4e84ddda437eda5bae6a09dbb2d8510767f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">7月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829841&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=ba5f9cab33c5edcea4e5a8b32f40ca9c&amp;chksm=8351700eb426f9188a9fbadfb06f94431dfa464c512eac51e06d42eb647d5d2a0cb53f38b1fc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">8月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=5&amp;sn=496cedb857d3ac5fe4beb0eac7d78d34&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa2b7390c9cbcb039676c09b9d2808eafe180d101e90b7d4f62f280a15bb3dd&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">9月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830098&amp;idx=4&amp;sn=2f71512a654087b6e4bbb8f19cf3463c&amp;chksm=8351730db426fa1babeeb1b4a7af96e989b5257bc088df943a0e05319463d6a373d4e709c356&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">10月</a>、</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 1.5em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-size: 16px;line-height: 25.6px;white-space: normal;border-width: medium;border-style: none;border-color: currentcolor;-moz-border-top-colors: none;-moz-border-right-colors: none;-moz-border-bottom-colors: none;-moz-border-left-colors: none;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="" style="margin: auto;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-color: rgb(71, 193, 168);width: 3em;text-align: center;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: inherit;font-size: 1em;text-decoration: inherit;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-radius: 50%;width: 3em;height: 3em;line-height: 3.5em;overflow: hidden;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(71, 193, 168);"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">更多</span></section></section><section class="" style="margin: -0.92em auto auto;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 0px;font-family: inherit;border-top: 3em solid rgb(71, 193, 168);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;border-right: 1.4em solid transparent !important;border-left: 1.4em solid transparent !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section></section></section><p><br /></p><fieldset class="" style="margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-width: 0px;white-space: normal;border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: currentcolor;-moz-border-top-colors: none;-moz-border-right-colors: none;-moz-border-bottom-colors: none;-moz-border-left-colors: none;text-align: center;color: rgb(129, 120, 119);font-size: 13.63px;font-weight: bold;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="padding: 0.3em 0.5em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);border-radius: 0.5em;text-align: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-weight: inherit;text-decoration: inherit;display: inline-block;box-shadow: 0.2em 0.2em 0.1em rgb(165, 165, 165);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="padding: 0.3em 0.5em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);border-radius: 0.5em;text-align: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-weight: inherit;text-decoration: inherit;display: inline-block;box-shadow: 0.2em 0.2em 0.1em rgb(165, 165, 165);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);font-size: 16px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">禾略中国：helue_China</span></p></span></fieldset><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;color: rgb(129, 120, 119);font-size: 13.63px;font-weight: bold;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><hr style="max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;text-align: justify;color: rgb(129, 120, 119);font-size: 13.63px;font-weight: bold;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" /><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;color: rgb(129, 120, 119);font-size: 13.63px;font-weight: bold;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;">陪你想，陪你写，陪你玩</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-size: 16px;line-height: 25.6px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-size: 16px;white-space: normal;text-align: justify;line-height: 24px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><img data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG4z3ZLnvGz7yzYuZ21wHoX53ZpOwnQhPmGbl2SxSiboaKiaW8L2CuhQBnhRkhP7Z47icicDduyXibFxAAg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" style="line-height: 1.6;text-indent: 32px;font-family: 宋体;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: auto !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>