禾略预测房价的原则和成果 原创 已修改 第1次修改 2018年04月03日 13时24分

<p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">上一期<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830559&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c676fe03d5755f00b4b388ff85de3a27&amp;chksm=83517540b426fc5665b450c8f0dc7790926c1375e577ade561219b65a315bf0c9c6ad63129d6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">城市房价预测</a>，引起了很多争议——</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">1）首先是数据源的准确度，我们分析的数据，属于新房在政府系统的备案价，确实存在偏低的可能</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2）其次是分析的逻辑，我们采用<strong>房价运行合理区间模型</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">为基础，预测各城市房价</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">（以月为单位，计算城市每月房价的支撑线、合理线和压力线，通过判断实际房价在轨道中的位置，做城市未来量价的短期预测，炒股的同学应该都懂）</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">3）最大的争议在于预测的结论，可能需要强调一下，我们用的是数学模型计算结论，还不需要用到脚。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">4）至于做这个预测的意义，借用桥水基金创始人雷达里奥的话<strong>“不管我一生中取得了多大的成功，其主要原因，都不是我知道多少事情，而是我知道，在无知的情况下，自己应该怎么做”</strong><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">同理，开发商也好，消费者也罢，想要在房地产投资上，获得长期的成功，从来不是靠准确判断房价的多少，而是能在不知道未来会发生有什么变化的情况下，仍能做出投资判断。<br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">不管未来是征收房地产税，还是三价合一，或者别的什么政策出台，<strong>做房价的量化预测，尝试站在未来的角度，寻找一种，未知情况下，仍能做决策的参考依据。</strong>（<a href="http://wx.urasr.com/addon/WeiSite/WeiSite/detail/id/198/token/gh_f9354c1df3f2?t=1522633234" target="_blank">往期预测</a>）</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br></strong></span></em></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">比如深圳，房价涨了一轮又一轮，调控政策一茬接一茬，市场动荡，有人看好，有人唱空，也有人持观望。</span></em></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br></span></em></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">而通过房价预测模型计算，未来两年，深圳房价保持稳步上涨，投资或许不太合适，但<em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">建议</span></em>刚需尽快入手。</span></em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.134" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5h4MJ25zumJAGpQKEMIjfj6IibrBYsZcxxtnQeHTNJYxs8lJN32dmt4YAgNAgeBglEyzia6ibIl6M3g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="500" style="width: 195px;height: 26px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">吸收上一次的经验，<strong>这次我们加上二手房的挂牌价，根据同样的统计模型，做了新一轮预测</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们还顺脚，将多项城市宏观经济指标，丢进统计分析模型，得出中国2021年的城市分类</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">（欢迎存贴，接受人民群众的检验）</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5622254758418741" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7XyAjnAiclg0MA1bSpxhxj9PBFeaCQwmDcwicdDQRK6JxicWm35Anliaodv1dhX5f7zjDWcFVA5L3r0Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1366" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">资料来源：禾略研究院</span><br></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2021年</span>强一线城市</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">：</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">北京：量价齐跌，预计2019年4月见底，5.8万元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">上海：价格回调，预计<span style="font-size: 14px;">2019</span>年5月筑底，4.7万<span style="font-size: 14px;">元/㎡</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">深圳：稳步上涨，预计2020年2月，均价6.7<span style="font-size: 14px;">万<span style="font-size: 14px;">元/㎡</span></span><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCE5qFyhMkOhDvFibJZFTZ5RT4T8UklT7mVGVHK73vaPb5C3pTby91iclA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCMdhK2yIMia0mo0Yfamtk8IWyyMwxI178icTDl9ymrnwYUwXDuz5GIicvA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCUv2FusY4dD0ibgYicJSaqSYFJGE7eULvMiaGufrBNMTZsVvUB5zhEtZ4g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.134" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5h4MJ25zumJAGpQKEMIjfj6IibrBYsZcxxtnQeHTNJYxs8lJN32dmt4YAgNAgeBglEyzia6ibIl6M3g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="500" style="width: 195px;height: 26px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">2021年一线城市：</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">天津：震荡横盘，预计<span style="font-size: 14px;">2019</span>年2月筑底，2.5万元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">广州：量价齐跌，预计<span style="font-size: 14px;">2019</span>年5月筑底，2.9万<span style="font-size: 14px;">元/㎡</span><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">杭州：稳步上涨，预计2020年<span style="font-size: 14px;">2月</span>，均价3.6<span style="font-size: 14px;">万<span style="font-size: 14px;">元/㎡</span></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">南京：波动调整，预计相对低位出现在<span style="font-size: 14px;">2019</span>年3月，3.2<span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">万<span style="font-size: 14px;">元/㎡</span></span></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">成都：震荡横盘，</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">预计相对低位出现在<span style="font-size: 14px;">2019</span>年6月，1.4<span style="font-size: 14px;">万<span style="font-size: 14px;">元/㎡</span></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">苏州：震荡横盘，预计<span style="font-size: 14px;">2020年<span style="font-size: 14px;">2月</span>，均价1.8<span style="font-size: 14px;">万<span style="font-size: 14px;">元/㎡</span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">武汉：波动上升，<span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">预计<span style="font-size: 14px;">2020年<span style="font-size: 14px;">2月</span>，均价2.0<span style="font-size: 14px;">万<span style="font-size: 14px;">元/㎡</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">郑州：量价横盘，<span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">预计<span style="font-size: 14px;">2020年<span style="font-size: 14px;">2月</span>，均价1.5<span style="font-size: 14px;">万<span style="font-size: 14px;">元/㎡</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCZN2CpafJNMZUlwAiaL2cxmia7nJdKhFKGe6mZSwOA7BEeko6cjd04Icg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSC25Bib7fq4eaJMtXEyVq39eTGMEtY6UHIicuImbYuIYeib7ZVf2EQzWicjw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCURl1S4ia4eySUtMo6znrGo0gkFRS8heUoWXibQsPHrbicJHWXB39pBBZQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCE7SPr81vhw1fxDiaARxmVAD3mar93bY7cdm8AiaE0W9iaxB2537vpYBRA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCiaiblxEsp9NB6rIlNbHLCjDNxglkPdyYs2Oic8sAN02OYkiaMXSlloBXqA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCWaSjKuWMO3OPwmXkUEt2ees8BjsRXgbLfIaxcBksdBY1zN8WBuUTnw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSC8wfZzibGJoQV3S1fQCyUvhiaC3icianIHnkSuibIz1ibLnt6NibgbwCiczImjw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCjaiaBsMQVxFm9DXdAEsGEkOyF4kE0GuIXX9x4yGsZROoialTVlA6YRew/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.134" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5h4MJ25zumJAGpQKEMIjfj6IibrBYsZcxxtnQeHTNJYxs8lJN32dmt4YAgNAgeBglEyzia6ibIl6M3g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="500" style="width: 195px;height: 26px;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><br><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">2021年强二线城市：</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">青岛：房价处上升阶段，预计2020年2月，均价2.4万元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">重庆：缩量横盘，房价波动较少，维持在1<span style="font-size: 14px;">万元/㎡</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">济南：量价回调，预计相对低位在2019年7月，1.6<span style="font-size: 14px;">万元/㎡</span><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">长沙：量价齐跌，预计<span style="font-size: 14px;">2020年2月，均价跌至9332元/㎡</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">宁波：震荡横盘，<span style="font-size: 14px;">预计<span style="font-size: 14px;"></span>2020年2月，均价1.6万元/㎡</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">合肥：房价回调，<span style="font-size: 14px;">预计<span style="font-size: 14px;">2020年2月，均价跌至1.2<span style="font-size: 14px;">万</span>元/㎡</span></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">昆明：稳中有涨，<span style="font-size: 14px;">预计<span style="font-size: 14px;">2020年2月，均价涨至<span style="font-size: 14px;">1.3<span style="font-size: 14px;">万</span></span>元/㎡</span></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">海口：波动盘整，<span style="font-size: 14px;">预计相对低位在2019年2月，1.1<span style="font-size: 14px;">万元/㎡</span></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">无锡：震荡横盘，<span style="font-size: 14px;">预计<span style="font-size: 14px;"></span>2020年2月，均价1.3万元/㎡</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">福州：量价回落，预计2019年6月筑底，2.5<span style="font-size: 14px;">万元/㎡</span><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">太原：缩量筑顶，<span style="font-size: 14px;">预计2019年6月见顶，1.0<span style="font-size: 14px;">万元/㎡</span></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">东莞：震荡横盘，<span style="font-size: 14px;">预计<span style="font-size: 14px;"></span>2020年2月，均价1.5万元/㎡</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">厦门：缩量筑顶，<span style="font-size: 14px;">预计2019年6月见顶，5.1<span style="font-size: 14px;">万元/㎡</span></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">佛山：震荡横盘，<span style="font-size: 14px;">预计相对低位在2019年7月，1.2<span style="font-size: 14px;">万元/㎡</span></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">珠海：缩量横盘，<span style="font-size: 14px;">预计<span style="font-size: 14px;"></span>2020年2月，均价2.3万元/㎡</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">南昌：震荡横盘，<span style="font-size: 14px;">预计相对低位在2019年7月，1.0万元/㎡</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSC8OiczRtaN8tkv2GxicZ0oHT5U6ae7RpeCSY7NfVk5b0mjLlEc4neBc2Q/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.562962962962963" data-w="1080"></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCuHxk3ujS8RSqjkBnEyIUIn5vXwg6eawKQXywupVQPmoiafGtV3yByRA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCzNyD2uKXViaYpToslxJ1ZPGNiadAB16kj5o5xibibEZRRd7GqFjhDrN5hQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.562962962962963" data-w="1080"></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCL75XqkY1ia8NsVdyVMia3WuI4H1kZYsDrNgcN0zEESibgsqDWTWy1Q6KQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.562962962962963" data-w="1080"></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCNQ4LoM5vSpbsGGau3eoXYSLn2gpiay2XBsxMofibp1SXIxgRYUxicJFNw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.562962962962963" data-w="1080"></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCewVibDlbQAdLhPiavq7P0RtnHRibTVUytoYBKiaX20riaXaMSmtQia2WicA4g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.562962962962963" data-w="1080"></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSC4l7Z4kLnsQKRlKX29dYrL9mrSNyUhJlfc8VOicV9Z5ibskgrub5UIPYg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.562962962962963" data-w="1080"></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCGMAeLarLOouT02BLNPEqcPiaauSn5MaScJiab1gee9GTpjma1BMWW65g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.562962962962963" data-w="1080"></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCic8aQf9kLsicZdpiclQYCCgnLHKuZKrRbcsh3WUR7hFGkjpowpWDwKq7Q/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.562962962962963" data-w="1080"></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCk20UsWrEDoky4UOJbJ44u4NsXyzXsZW7ZSVia0BsLgYStlQrkm95bMA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCXr9xQFn2MWcNAIAqswtZ3fBjTjicSVltV2iaicg3bNzj9msI55og1LSMQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCvTX1RicZ8vB3HNKMzZmTrvq9ghp4G0weF93Iib04fxBicb28YkVbdAWibA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.562962962962963" data-w="1080"></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCBVLZTdjHUR3VCjDyAQ0rAoPLHtH4KnEdqib8VOoaiajz37iauiaMLIMukg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.562962962962963" data-w="1080"></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCLhbLljYVWmu8Mib7ZAL6Sibxv2PZc0PLVXgc1TlWGb3PqbYevfgEBibhA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.562962962962963" data-w="1080"></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCp2o10dfVqpDnSaOfJlNSeG56TLq4kia1M5RD4xqo2Np0EFdpCDJ4Tcg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCibVromoHrjUibQqeDTHiar1iaTWKcI6MvZnJEOElj9fajcFOnltmicMogZg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.134" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5h4MJ25zumJAGpQKEMIjfj6IibrBYsZcxxtnQeHTNJYxs8lJN32dmt4YAgNAgeBglEyzia6ibIl6M3g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="500" style="width: 195px;height: 26px;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">2021年二线城市：</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">长春：缩量横盘，预计相对低位在2019年8月，7374元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">沈阳：房价稳步上升，预计2020年2月，均价上涨至9834元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">兰州：房价稳中有涨，预计2020年2月，均价上涨至1.1万元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">贵阳：房价稳定上涨，预计2020年2月，均价上涨至9969元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">南通：房价回调阶段，预计2019年6月筑底，1.0万元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">大连：量价齐升，预计2020年2月，均价上涨至1.4万元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">石家庄：缩量横盘，预计2020年2月，均价上涨至1.6万元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">温州：震荡横盘，预计2020年2月，均价上涨至1.9万元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">泉州：快速拉升，预计2020年2月，均价上涨至1.4万元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">常州：量价横盘，预计2020年2月，均价上涨至1.3万元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">中山：震荡横盘，预计相对低位在2019年8月，1.1万元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCJCPyphXHfp29R8MGstwYFibZFCead8n4icdqibdQc0PUoFEOicRumcrzWA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSChnMnyOsREuFLnUL7Aib7Qsg58F2knqia3QwiaNJJO5y9LRG5p9NNK2Cxg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCEPma6lShMcEHSA4CicpBed7TZT1ZNhSl6uHREpqILp92mjO0H1wD3dg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSC1zsKiaVibKPqdqa4D2v2lUpprY4upttzD5qX19cV9IqmGqIc35ibNOSGQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCrjGYQHL7Bjhl4yicDYT96h2j3icX87ZQAZicePcZhoFpU9ymsR96cCoIQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSC8v52faaLLSeDIgUIAPLhMZ4jUja9dIXQ0nuF3UzI4lJ8Mq5uOM3pibg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCbLK6ybQY5Mhzjn9Yo7riaPFicCQhNYRbddagdlNosdeWFGVa0O1s56Qg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCjD3xPibiaVkJibvECzkhrsJWPGOj5aZ5YuvmzRX9icsLC5FFtum7kwg99Q/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCosmPWDFKus0bUtnvUI0GwIXsdfXfLib6KiazVCp3r6XL8RQx7jZH65qQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCbn8pic7UUrrialoTK56PrMoJgdv3W0aHbArwmNrm3dhXOoBvXV1tSv7g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCM3iaC9YbxLE1eEpgh9Lsw02qiakibroaBn2GJPvY2hTL43l33UbN7fdzQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.134" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5h4MJ25zumJAGpQKEMIjfj6IibrBYsZcxxtnQeHTNJYxs8lJN32dmt4YAgNAgeBglEyzia6ibIl6M3g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="500" style="width: 195px;height: 26px;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><br></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>2021年强三线城市：</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">惠州：缩量筑顶，预计2020年2月，均价降至8910元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">台州：震荡横盘，预计2020年2月，均价1.3万元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">唐山：波动盘整，预计2020年2月，均价9324元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">宜昌：房价处上升通道，预计2020年2月，均价9507元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">洛阳：房价稳中有涨，预计2020年2月，均价8367元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSC2CE7SzVgmr8uoevetKwd9jV2tiac51A6Ph3d6jsRU9Dcncdc4v7HKLw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCz95SXYL3m64VZSjLYJ2rjkctgVBruuqPRkmm5DTmTRGjqVtF8F97TA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCqKEDbzYvib8Tn4PvyssXPlBP9ia8Sx5H9pQubmHxHxqOsrvPMib2miaH4A/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCB9MCT9jx3uHmkuicIBPCcwOCccQrZ7gkQVm9icwEqHv5zD7rgg3SGUSg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCo1bRwn9xia5odFf40TMkHQG1SUPMVbUUQ1WicqnKpicrXvLLEBKpDhiclQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.134" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5h4MJ25zumJAGpQKEMIjfj6IibrBYsZcxxtnQeHTNJYxs8lJN32dmt4YAgNAgeBglEyzia6ibIl6M3g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="500" style="width: 195px;height: 26px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><br></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>2021年三线城市：</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">赣州：缩量筑顶，预计2020年2月，房价回调至6912元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">吉林：缩量横盘，预计2020年2月，均价5668元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">阜阳：震荡横盘，预计2020年2月，均价7785元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">漳州：房价回调，预计2019年4月筑底，均价1.2万元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">九江：震荡横盘，预计2020年2月，均价6645元/㎡</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCnNnSQZnfIlrPuMNdlYNYZN0KSmkHTUrfdVbswfEZ7OWIWg5aaIvRXw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCGuiaTuvMpHXgicd3bHzIY1yT0oFLAtlvwu0YibG4OzG3HI0Wa25q9dlPw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCC9UjfUWFOO6UvRDo6q1Rr8z7ibmPIbP2qzaaFbWBBUaBMZ3JgfyjH2A/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCqYmHsJR13CmKL1KmiaWt3SVSHBTb4a7KHXcsm0zM7tFUvuFaq6xwUcg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCYqShpXVjUMeq4yDrDqVwPdFMEZyJJNUhkpkh3amTwjIibgFF4H72TIg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.134" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5h4MJ25zumJAGpQKEMIjfj6IibrBYsZcxxtnQeHTNJYxs8lJN32dmt4YAgNAgeBglEyzia6ibIl6M3g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="500" style="width: 195px;height: 26px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><br><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">小结</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">48城未来两年的房价走势<br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="526" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="296" data-ratio="0.5622254758418741" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5RmY4SRia3rsTqWKbhfQMSCYYC5b3Zk3cYAKh3FQCM3WjPNSTgdXvVodDgZFjHbxBnkSYG9NcONgg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1366" style="width: 526px;height: 296px;"></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">总的来说，<strong>该模型最大的不足在于，难以反映城市间的房价联动关系。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">比如东莞、惠州，房价都受深圳的辐射影响。未来两年，深圳持续平稳上涨，东莞却保持平稳，惠州甚至持续下调。这个问题将留到下次讨论，敬请期待~</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">——&nbsp; 猜你想看&nbsp; ——</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 12px;">城市：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px;">| <a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830454&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=4e7c3289190e2a69c5fb20f2ae8a6d94&amp;chksm=835175e9b426fcffa5f65cafe5274b1c296caf1a51e13ef4c7920c5a18847bef3c7b13c2bfd0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">昆明</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830295&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f680ffa2ddf52783e9a7730971520d48&amp;chksm=83517248b426fb5e0efc1e5c62d15b173e4d23ab7aafaab82c6ce861e98d96271fe5dc7db798&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">嘉兴</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830278&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8441ac780477cd9def8d4e9d7866f143&amp;chksm=83517259b426fb4f93ff50f1c07d7b830f16ec4d1e0c23f64ef15a78a056ae301274ffbb8ec3&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">重庆</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830196&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7a599cf338734c1d41c6fa16005b1641&amp;chksm=835172ebb426fbfdda6873adbeddc124ae670de675a7c36d11977106150a1d924572ea70f299&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">成都</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830221&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f5994dbfe9fa00ffce4b5be1a69f3244&amp;chksm=83517292b426fb8419e771cf48ea94de01fc7dc909b4e8c2759c6423b8be6080bc5bd1c248cc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">深圳</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=cd78421e4f2e724f552f8eefc65e0236&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa26aed46ed566bc1f8ffa11498370fed14fa9d0690795a3eff5a186c63a03d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">上海</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829512&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=421f2b766d75009082de8fc1e81cd8d2&amp;chksm=83517157b426f84197c93fd852a3e3f93019c9d81e099784ad0aa09f326ca9dd33a0edb7cfd7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">珠三角</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829480&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c77baf137c109f1017170a708548d37b&amp;chksm=835171b7b426f8a1d942708988b8f4bd875366f5928d1db99470ccad6958aa0c8cd47b292c23&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">雄安新区</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=401964235&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8839375241e6a7e69f49aec108ca1ad6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">无锡</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=203026648&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=466dca69ff3eb746e2e5c21831d57f0f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">北京</a> | <br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 12px;">热点：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px;">| <a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830578&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=73f5149b299d5ce19a433c365eedee83&amp;chksm=8351756db426fc7b173558a1765830766ec5f7fb387e652250f10a106ef6490821f809722cfb&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">中美贸易战</a> | <a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830503&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2fae9eec64a6ed71f0c4ee9e4e9bafe7&amp;chksm=835175b8b426fcaec41bb2a484ef939ac78474c77acde2d96a6f7f8b61a0f4ade630c13e7f90&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">粤港澳</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830398&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=ffd40b9cb7730bd712d8f053280d6fa9&amp;chksm=83517221b426fb37e97b45db61547227724f5a09e6a2a0484a55475066ac41fc1b0165954d0d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">万科商业</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830360&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=3cea24af7ebf848fde74c52538f111e5&amp;chksm=83517207b426fb11a1ae1c301117e9626ba09012aa9d8b4d8f722e45423ecb7e63987f50bec5&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">2018年走势</a> |&nbsp; <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830258&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=079af6257d826b9b592280754ac66a69&amp;chksm=835172adb426fbbbcbc0ba7b27078f59d0313d5bd0f60d0b385720251d85f0b1797abeb24e54&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">任泽平</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829841&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=4c8c80fb3b7b721df0a9fd204ac07f66&amp;chksm=8351700eb426f918410cde0800635745e898437602799c7dfd6c38a623ec784eb196dcec16f7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">悦府</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829563&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9e468d74b0dc9a156fcdb7bb4944551a&amp;chksm=83517164b426f8722e59ebee139130e104a9d6cf46ce22adeaf03fe0c6861e33a901a4246723&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">嘉兴土拍</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829214&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=e245560eeadafae388de6a7d7577e04e&amp;chksm=83516e81b426e7976c5c6d425b4a39ade86d0e12ed288238933e3662f48c58d57c4efeb5c801&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">深圳房价</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829123&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=dfa4dc6c2538443c36261850676e445f&amp;chksm=83516edcb426e7ca756d2a80930aa8be108cbd730cb05573393378c60e9c9e8ce88067b00c06&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">屌英</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649828970&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=94da5f79cfde6c25849b5c41421d3964&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">恒大海上威尼斯</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=402337281&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=01025bafd1b30fc52ccffa541506497c&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">SOHO</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=206752846&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9b1148eb7ff37e89f2cb1c12dcecb8ea&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">上海新政</a> | <br></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 12px;">专业：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">| <a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830559&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=5868d66dc096b786f041ec2eca37940e&amp;chksm=83517540b426fc563da660d10d6e5ae764cb60077f73e0f2e41834435f7212538c6d4ce54458&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">二线房价</a> | <a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830559&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c676fe03d5755f00b4b388ff85de3a27&amp;chksm=83517540b426fc5665b450c8f0dc7790926c1375e577ade561219b65a315bf0c9c6ad63129d6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">一线房价</a> | <a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830457&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=37a5c454028fb849c2c5fce3b3575756&amp;chksm=835175e6b426fcf07c9d8fdee249e33edf0ae7f5684be2290c3145624ad430d880a10a654ebd&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">2018房地产报告</a> | <a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830431&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b7596dea6473253d931b3fac3435f622&amp;chksm=835175c0b426fcd63330d6b1a95eea4c8c78ff31886b2494fd56162bbba8c5cf939854102298&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">政策解读</a></span>| <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830258&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=bc2fe4a1a774ba6c59d982debbf2fd5b&amp;chksm=835172adb426fbbbe9325a4f9b6aa2709f6da75ff2908c48f79f7749df8fb04673499ff7899c&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">极小公寓</a> |&nbsp; <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830201&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=1816623486b879233513443f1df6ec59&amp;chksm=835172e6b426fbf07aa0f023c3ff79ca1cf11606fc2f2b66cfe773222e3fa1df7f92affa90b6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">远郊定位</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830238&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=55591402f6fa54ebdf90912d8ea6b9fd&amp;chksm=83517281b426fb975b8910ddf8814762e527d24502eb421ad041b6899c7511c3c66b553b7196&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">城市化</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829710&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=58d632f4b07dc0796127ef5df605bb36&amp;chksm=83517091b426f9871fa25aed40ade8d757557347ecf505d8b9510645b5adcc6d703caed90b31&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">时势蓝图</a> | <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829662&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=a0f9b47beae15eaada8d20b39fb26c21&amp;chksm=835170c1b426f9d7c8ecebbe881b254293dea7c826683c2e381693d874915dedef067a98d419&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">土地理解</a> | <a 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href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=400672879&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2b70716f8cc9b44365df50e1243cb8ec&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">城市地图</a> | <br></span></p><p><br></p><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 1.5em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-size: 16px;line-height: 25.6px;white-space: normal;border-width: medium;border-style: none;border-color: currentcolor;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="" style="margin: auto;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-color: rgb(71, 193, 168);width: 3em;text-align: center;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: inherit;font-size: 1em;text-decoration: inherit;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-radius: 50%;width: 3em;height: 3em;line-height: 3.5em;overflow: hidden;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(71, 193, 168);"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;">更多</span></section></section><section class="" style="margin: -0.92em auto auto;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 0px;font-family: inherit;border-top: 3em solid rgb(71, 193, 168);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;border-right: 1.4em solid transparent !important;border-left: 1.4em solid transparent !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></section></section></section><fieldset class="" style="margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-width: 0px;white-space: normal;border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: currentcolor;text-align: center;color: rgb(129, 120, 119);font-size: 13.63px;font-weight: bold;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="padding: 0.3em 0.5em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);border-radius: 0.5em;text-align: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-weight: inherit;text-decoration: inherit;display: inline-block;box-shadow: rgb(165, 165, 165) 0.2em 0.2em 0.1em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 12px;padding: 0.3em 0.5em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);border-radius: 0.5em;text-align: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-weight: inherit;text-decoration: inherit;display: inline-block;box-shadow: rgb(165, 165, 165) 0.2em 0.2em 0.1em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">禾略中国：helue_China</span></p></span></fieldset><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;color: rgb(129, 120, 119);font-size: 13.63px;font-weight: bold;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></span></p><hr style="max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;text-align: justify;color: rgb(129, 120, 119);font-size: 13.63px;font-weight: bold;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">陪你想，陪你写，陪你玩</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">商务联系：yumx@urasr.com<br></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-size: 16px;line-height: 25.6px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-size: 16px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;line-height: 24px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="526" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="526" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4CH2Q70SCqaiaUnucGGwFRTYoW9SS84sCDbLB8PkBJ5zVxAEsHCJk2kcl2VmQUPibxsDcztjHmXfZQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1125" 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