科学算命，重庆市场还能火到2021年9月

<section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;" data-mpa-powered-by="yiban.io">618禾略专业分享会·重庆站完美收官，错过现场的朋友，可以一起来回顾一下当天的精彩内容——</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></section><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-direction: column;width: 100%;padding: 0px 10px 0px 7px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 6px;height: 6px;background: rgb(68, 153, 231);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(13, 13, 13);border-radius: 50%;align-self: flex-start;margin-left: 7px;z-index: 1;margin-bottom: -6px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><br /></section><section style="width: 6px;height: 6px;background: rgb(68, 153, 231);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(13, 13, 13);border-radius: 50%;align-self: flex-end;z-index: 1;margin-right: 1px;margin-bottom: -7px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><br /></section><section style="width: 100%;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 100%;display: grid;grid-template-columns: 49% 49%;grid-template-rows: 48% 48%;gap: 4% 2%;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);padding: 14px;transform: translate(3.1px, -3.1px);" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="259" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="213" data-ratio="0.66640625" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gRrNnAhq7y7xTFTxvnPDVTmYSoJgGWXv3hYwiadlIllDmy1GDuUKw1Kw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="width: 320px;height: 213px;" /></section><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="259" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="213" data-ratio="0.66640625" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8grODIUgOu96GnI0f7sCuTfnnzpGm4ic0xQ8icVbM7iciasrk22N0DAyahoQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="width: 320px;height: 213px;" /></section><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="259" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="213" data-ratio="0.66640625" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gYCCe08TSR5OfuiaZC4rdITUia1NNdHyicmhiakPlCfESDvS7o4icSG4yEBw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="width: 320px;height: 213px;" /></section><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="259" data-cropsely1="10" data-cropsely2="223" data-ratio="0.66640625" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8giar0AIxfe6ku5PdIYk14bvH6UsxZ1k3fvX928JIKJNc7G2eUR5JVWMw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="width: 320px;height: 213px;" /></section></section></section><section style="width: 6px;height: 6px;background: rgb(68, 153, 231);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(13, 13, 13);border-radius: 50%;align-self: flex-start;margin-left: 7px;z-index: 1;margin-top: -13px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><br /></section><section style="width: 6px;height: 6px;background: rgb(68, 153, 231);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(13, 13, 13);border-radius: 50%;align-self: flex-end;z-index: 1;margin-right: 1px;margin-top: -6px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><br /></section></section></section></section><p><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 36px;text-decoration: line-through;">01</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>重庆市场回顾与展望</strong><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 10px;">主讲人：禾略科创事业部产品经理 文嘉穗</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></section><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section data-mpa-category="模板" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="border-radius: 50%;border-width: 8px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(222, 234, 255);" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="overflow: hidden;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 3px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);width: 203px;height: 203px;display: flex;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="197" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="197" data-ratio="0.66640625" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gnoSvia3aCR09XxIjSKFaEiaL5QudxqAU8TUyoO2oUIdbhydDCJtcBCeA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="width: 296px;border-radius: 50%;object-fit: cover;height: 197px;" /></section></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 64px;height: 203px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="3.1550387596899223" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/nzlia30PM3b2ibQ285hztGHWEcLycvN9tQWGyBnhF0amc1ibTU6C349p75zyiarTFIsQFOVvQV9PtkOd9TG8xXYvpQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="258" /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">重庆商品住宅市场经历2017-2018年购房热潮后，市场开始降温回归理性，商品住宅销售量价自2018年至2020年呈现小幅回落趋势。2021年1-6月重庆市场住宅销售量价齐涨，市场成交热度高，去化周期显著缩短。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="1.394072447859495" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8ggq3ziamNqmgyKyQVedd0jfX96YF9ceGYkzPgImO6EnQL9Z1npYtZd1Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="911" style="" /></section><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">2021年上半年重庆成交量呈现南部走量、北部走价态势，价高量高的板块集中在渝北区板块群。从成交价格看，渝中、照母山板块为重庆一主一副两个价格成交高地，北部以中央公园板块为中心逐步形成房价高地趋势。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1.0140056022408963" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gLLmdDxtpr0ENibick8pqYQUbstN3VFWSEho4ibW3SX2tHfmNRbw5ZAlYQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="714" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">重庆整体市场偏向单价离散化市场，开发商对产品总价基准线保持一致，产品单价设置区间大，产品品系丰富。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">基于禾略市场价值和城市价值均值回归模型，判断重庆市场2019-2020年处于市场价值被低估时期，预判在2021-2022年市场将有较强的驱动力推动市场价值向上抬升，市场将表现出量价持续增长态势；</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">基于禾略滤波周期算法，<span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>预判重庆主城板块6月处于市场信心周期向上冲高阶段，市场热度将持续增长</strong></span>，市场流通性强，成交量大且保持增长，房价上涨有较强的支撑。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gD0uxicVfC8SpcZlZgxOLgVWSWVAkichXdEEvBsfcg6Lq9XEPH4oK73Jg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);">向上冲高周期于2021年9月达到高点</span></strong>，2021年9月至2022年5月处于重庆市场信心高位回落阶段，此阶段重庆市场开始回归理性，价格仍有一定惯性上涨但上涨支撑力走弱显著，2022年5月市场进入下探筑底，需合理控制风险并把握机会，积极布局潜力板块。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 36px;text-decoration: line-through;">02</span><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>全国房地产市场宏观研究</strong><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 10px;text-align: center;">主讲人</span><span style="font-size: 10px;text-align: center;">：<span style="font-size: 10px;text-align: center;">禾略事业合伙人/深圳集团总经理&nbsp;</span>钟小军</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></section><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section data-mpa-category="模板" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="border-radius: 50%;border-width: 8px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(222, 234, 255);" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="overflow: hidden;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 3px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);width: 203px;height: 203px;display: flex;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8g1Qo1mHSzPZXia8bh7PAnaj2SI8C7Wia1dOon5AR1OLulEyZwUZAJpsmg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="306.4864864864865" data-cropx2="882.972972972973" data-cropy1="102.16216216216216" data-cropy2="656.7567567567568" data-ratio="0.9600694444444444" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8g1NgDuaWz5HfTJuI30Pr8mHaeFADBXicboBNFIsPicYzXz81UgBVUMElg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="576" style="width: 197px;border-radius: 50%;object-fit: cover;height: 197px;" /></section></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 64px;height: 203px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="3.1550387596899223" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/nzlia30PM3b2ibQ285hztGHWEcLycvN9tQWGyBnhF0amc1ibTU6C349p75zyiarTFIsQFOVvQV9PtkOd9TG8xXYvpQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="258" /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">观点1：用人-地-房的匹配逻辑洞察数据。如全国人口增量最强深圳，每年平均新增72万，意味着每年需要新增99.8平方公里城市用地，27.4万套住房/年，2865万平/年。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">观点2：看待人口要看结构变化。如全国最弱保定人口累计减少195万，但过去5年城镇人口增长31万，户籍人口增长11万，三产就业人口增长4万。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5046875" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gktLccvvXiccsB3qwkEKdXrlyT34xyblhqCkLkCNHgEN3FG703WutWLQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">观点3：三四线城市的潜力=城镇化率（负）+中心城市距离（正）+单核承载力（正）。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">观点4：正确的投资逻辑，不是统计过去的涨幅，而是预判新增的中高收入客群会在哪里，可以用空间禀赋-产业聚集-人口置换的研判逻辑。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">观点5：城市未来市场空间=需求PK供给+购买力PK房价，不考虑调控因子，<span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>目前全国最看好深圳、广州、成都、重庆、郑州等五大核心城市</strong></span>。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7462962962962963" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gMiaUCXeBicwJiaJcSCtiafm9zURYTJxntpibjChicP7bT4KMkKOTKF5TaYgw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style=""></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 36px;text-decoration: line-through;">03</span><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>大数据房价预测模型</strong><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 10px;text-align: center;">主讲人</span><span style="font-size: 10px;text-align: center;">：禾略研究院院长&nbsp;赵陆祎</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></section><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section data-mpa-category="模板" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="border-radius: 50%;border-width: 8px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(222, 234, 255);" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="overflow: hidden;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 3px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);width: 203px;height: 203px;display: flex;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gtj8NOKQQplr9iarU3YfkzewQDic7nTIPkFDMd3A7FhxQKfc5TG6cvtLQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="307.02702702702703" data-cropx2="985.945945945946" data-cropy1="108.1081081081081" data-cropy2="769.7297297297296" data-ratio="0.971976401179941" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gdvK5yWFjZg21zicn3ccyBiaL8IEVB2vIHgKMTmibwBL2vKqeBKHouPGtw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="678" style="width: 197px;border-radius: 50%;object-fit: cover;height: 197px;" /></section></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 64px;height: 203px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="3.1550387596899223" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/nzlia30PM3b2ibQ285hztGHWEcLycvN9tQWGyBnhF0amc1ibTU6C349p75zyiarTFIsQFOVvQV9PtkOd9TG8xXYvpQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="258" /></section></section></section></section></section><p><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></p><p>房价预测的本质是投资决策中的价值发现，我们使用一些量化模型的方法试图找到洼城、洼区和洼地。</p><p><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5415162454873647" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gMkZzcPLU9iabichmuGgc1xElL5WDhBG8iaZyUBe50pIibicFAUBD7gQDx7w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="" /></p><p><br /></p><p>1、城市价值发现</p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5397111913357401" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gZBriah0A82qUEc0gMR90wTMWg6XuSPqIPiavtBES4lfVr32fkibD3kK7w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="" /></p><p><br /></p><p>我们主要试图回答的问题是——<strong>如何解释过往房价涨幅在不同城市之间的差异性？</strong></p><p><br /></p><p>由于人口增长、人口迁移、城镇化、货币信贷等因素都可以拉动需求从而推动房价上涨。我们可以借鉴证券资产多因子定价模型将这些因素纳入一个统一的模型框架中，并对其因子历史收益进行回测检验，我们最终得到全国所有地级市中建议适时介入的第一梯队城市名单（其中包含广州、深圳、珠海、重庆等城市）以及建议适当规避的城市名单。</p><p><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5361010830324909" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gic42sR6vCN1R4TM7XIGtlECyqqUpHtBbKBLJV5tsrK4Qj9fhw6UBTlQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="" /></p><p><br /></p><p>2、区域价值发现</p><p>我们主要试图回答的问题是——<strong>如何解释房价在不同地区之间的差异性，以及对于各类不同收入的客群，每个地块应当对应的产品定位区间是怎样？</strong></p><p><strong><br /></strong></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5415162454873647" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gnEpmkibnCPRhKwrN2SJJd3XmBhqs6ibNhsvk3K3iaicFWsDNKM6odVeVKQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="" /></p><p><br /></p><p>对于第一个问题，我们用“合理房价模型”回答。我们根据板块现状土地价值得到权重，对从深度学习计算得来的未来房价预测进行赋权打分，最终得到每个板块的合理房价。</p><p><br /></p><p>对于第二个问题，我们用“十级房价模型”回答，结合网格颗粒度的智联招聘收入数据，及二手房市场数据，对在不同客群-产品级别分别建模，从而得到每个网格在不同产品线下应设定的理论总价、套均面积、单价定位。</p><p><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gZ6uEeOtqBPfLsC4QkibQzT3ibwWZXic9xibFyian1buAPNsJAMuBDFWWPQw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1920" style="" /></p><p><br /></p><section><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 36px;text-decoration: line-through;">04</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>地产信息化——企业的红利，个人的机遇</strong><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 10px;text-align: center;">主讲人</span><span style="font-size: 10px;text-align: center;">：禾略信息化产品经理 李泽华</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></section><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section data-mpa-category="模板" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="border-radius: 50%;border-width: 8px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(222, 234, 255);" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="overflow: hidden;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 3px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);width: 203px;height: 203px;display: flex;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="197" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="197" data-ratio="0.66640625" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8g4BVADUB3HBN1HDrg89qbaPvSNoKKDUMgGNGXwStVeqfNibMS4NABl0A/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="width: 296px;border-radius: 50%;object-fit: cover;height: 197px;" /></section></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 64px;height: 203px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="3.1550387596899223" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/nzlia30PM3b2ibQ285hztGHWEcLycvN9tQWGyBnhF0amc1ibTU6C349p75zyiarTFIsQFOVvQV9PtkOd9TG8xXYvpQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="258" /></section></section></section></section></section><p><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">1、随着2018房住不炒，2020三道红线，2021两集中等政策的相继出台，<strong>地产持续了近30年的“钱地人”三大红利正在成为过去式</strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gTlUqia5bRgkDQpn4PX6VlBVgl1wHSHJibvPVhXtCuUXpicWCW4MpQI4Yw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1920" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">2、信息化极大可能成为地产新红利的继任者，它的本质是通过变革生产方式，使得“成本、品质、效率”得到有效提升，从而进一步变革模式、挖掘商机</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">3、地产信息化希望得到有效的发展，需要有战略级的关注，但落地的时候需要基于各业务场景打造标杆和标准化模式，不能一味从上向下强压</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8g0ulGsyibwgLgtIJgqRxZdZhaicJib46p6T7XhtW30kt0ch7hT4NEWXplw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1920" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">4、地产信息化的服务商必须拥有地产+信息化双专业，如果打造信息化的团队没有对业务的深度理解，是做不出好的产品</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">5、就现阶段而言，地产信息化的构建方向必须是业务口的红利挖掘，而不是简单的信息大屏或者线上办公</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 36px;text-decoration: line-through;">05</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>重庆地块客户解析</strong><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 10px;text-align: center;">主讲人</span><span style="font-size: 10px;text-align: center;">：禾略西南大区产品经理 汪国文</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></section><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section data-mpa-category="模板" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="border-radius: 50%;border-width: 8px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(222, 234, 255);" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="overflow: hidden;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 3px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);width: 203px;height: 203px;display: flex;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="197" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="197" data-ratio="0.66640625" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gdzRXPoe7EpBXN4RUiaSuoHOzic4mKZriaYuof7cmtTicRNOiaXJ4jt6jXWg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="width: 296px;border-radius: 50%;object-fit: cover;height: 197px;" /></section></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 64px;height: 203px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="3.1550387596899223" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/nzlia30PM3b2ibQ285hztGHWEcLycvN9tQWGyBnhF0amc1ibTU6C349p75zyiarTFIsQFOVvQV9PtkOd9TG8xXYvpQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="258" /></section></section></section></section></section><p><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>就西永124亩，蔡家94亩以及中央公园82亩三块地对比分析来看，中央公园地现状价值最高，西永地块预期最好；</strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><br /></strong></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.562793427230047" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gB0qAfspUt70HOMNic1HZf13KoicibVoaOkvsvibicbSWWZzCX6s6tt2vXWw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1704" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">从市场成交来看，三块地的总价警戒线最高为中央公园地块，为242万；</p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5622418879056047" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gEQf1rAgSZ3WiaHpqw9ibyibPukTSl3hK3ElXMSbo0XLmRY5I4lKyzqh5g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1695" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">三块地的目标均涉及30-34岁首置首改客群以及45-49再改客群，首置首改客群家庭年收入为34万，再改客群家庭年收入为48万，从客群的角度看，存在突破目前市场成交总价边界的潜在支撑。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5474926253687316" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gH0Xcg1r3mlxJYib6No3hosQQwrMvrlcFUBZGusUq77nC6SlzrLPicxibw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1695" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 36px;text-decoration: line-through;">06</span><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>花样年产品线——趣味料</strong><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="text-align: center;font-size: 10px;">主讲人</span><span style="text-align: center;font-size: 10px;">：花样年集团客研总经理 梁煜林</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></section><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section data-mpa-category="模板" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="border-radius: 50%;border-width: 8px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(222, 234, 255);" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="overflow: hidden;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 3px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);width: 203px;height: 203px;display: flex;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="197" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="197" data-ratio="0.66640625" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gcf8k9ic0ibLCnIEHymKWWjiaEj5ppV3NEwxy71rfZykibBrI0LxhgO0Iqw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="width: 296px;border-radius: 50%;object-fit: cover;height: 197px;" /></section></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 64px;height: 203px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="3.1550387596899223" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/nzlia30PM3b2ibQ285hztGHWEcLycvN9tQWGyBnhF0amc1ibTU6C349p75zyiarTFIsQFOVvQV9PtkOd9TG8xXYvpQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="258" /></section></section></section></section></section><p><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">花样年产品主张——趣味料，他们代表着不同的精神主张。<br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8grCwIk749Pn7sj7DquvEIia2uq0qSPwAQ8icyc7icNXiboc51ymJz4WRWqg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1920" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">年红：纯无杂质的饱满，毫无保留的热烈，充满着旺盛无惧的生命张力，它是“趣”系列最好的表达。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">圆形：是包容、圆润、俏皮，透露着一种青春明朗的气质。我们在这一个圆中调皮地打开了一扇门，正中偏左，自在放松，出入自如。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">酒红：是年红的沉淀，弥漫醉人的沉香，收敛了张力却形成深韵的气质。他是“味”系列最完美的表达。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">矩形：是开阔、稳重、成熟。我们在其正下方开了一扇宽阔的大门，双矩形结合形成一个方拱形结构，或是大门，或是宅邸，是对更高品质生活的常新想象，是对人生前路不同的见解。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">不老松：不老松是一个很深的绿色，这个绿色像万年长青的松树，坚韧铿锵，生生不息，长久深沉的沉淀，表现出一种望不见底的深沉气场。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">方形：中正泰和，天地一方。我们在其内部寻找年华之“花”，在“花”的结构中摘取一个矩形空间，构建对不同生活的设戏，放松自在的立体填充，表达出沉稳生活中的逍遥姿态。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 36px;text-decoration: line-through;">07</span><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>7月重庆集中供地解析</strong><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 10px;">主讲人</span><span style="font-size: 10px;">：禾略华南大区产品经理&nbsp;官明谦</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></section><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section data-mpa-category="模板" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="border-radius: 50%;border-width: 8px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(222, 234, 255);" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="overflow: hidden;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 3px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);width: 203px;height: 203px;display: flex;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="197" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="197" data-ratio="0.66640625" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8g5NiaPHAIagy5mF2wlRsW92keVw7JoovegOlJ3aaE2NVGoyibicj9OZ8GA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="width: 296px;border-radius: 50%;object-fit: cover;height: 197px;" /></section></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 64px;height: 203px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="3.1550387596899223" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/nzlia30PM3b2ibQ285hztGHWEcLycvN9tQWGyBnhF0amc1ibTU6C349p75zyiarTFIsQFOVvQV9PtkOd9TG8xXYvpQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="258" /></section></section></section></section></section><p><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">集中供地这种大量推出土地的情况，该如何快速批量地研判各个地块的好坏？本次以重庆的集中供地为例，主要从——</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>1、地块周边的土地价值如何？</strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>2、未来有没有升值的潜力？</strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>3、是不是在高位拿的地？这三个问题出发研判这一批地里面，哪几个是拿的最好的。</strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">首先第一个问题，我们从工作、生活与通勤的3个角度综合得出了土地价值的评分，把地块分为了“近城外溢”，“远郊外溢”及“远郊内生”这3类，可以看到除了近城外溢的地块，其余地块都是处于土地待开发的区域，周边的配套产业支撑较弱。对于这一类的地块，我们怎么才能知道这些地块有没有拿对呢？</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">对此我们从土地价值提升以及周期的角度来看。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">我们从人口和人造地表的演变，综合得出重庆的土地演变趋势，可以知道，2015-2020年渝北区，机场西部的区域为最核心的发展区域，那边的土地升值潜力最大。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1.0271370420624153" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8g5U5W8rZzjFlLz0qlcfYEgsoqL3aia48yvahjmyQoml6Btuy11CkWAiaw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="737" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">再结合土地现状价值，我们可以得知机场周边的土地，基本都是属于中赢率—高回报率，再往西边的土地，就是以低赢率—高回报率，也就是说，相对于全市的46块地来说，机场那边的地块未来的土地虽然目前不咋地，但是演变价值较大，在投资上属于以小博大的高回报率产品。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1.0266666666666666" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gfm44wIcHLgQibQ79ib1ibFeLs2ycR0j1dAz5CFpj20DlKqWlztJpd2ezQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="750" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">最后从周期上看，目前重庆全市处于市场的高位，但是从区域来看，大渡口区与九龙坡区是低位。</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">落到地块上可以得知，主城南部的6个地块都是在低位拿的地，成功抄底;</p><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gO1hRx5EPRCop77pddm3vFebKPoERp8K3Bphr2DEoMDWs7QwngqwGxw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1920" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">而机场那边未来升值潜力大的地块，都是在向上冲高的阶段拿的地，处于小高位;&nbsp;</section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gOUffIde54GDCjalywYiam2PISK6icBT66aK5kmwuaibcVTMG9VjibxH1Dg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1920" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">最后巴南区的两块地，赢率低，回报率低，同时在高位回落阶段拿的地，存在一定的风险。</section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6UyH2iaDEl0Nkyuqy5IYB8gwRZmL6t994KOeQ3M5KtmeN67wYDVE2QLSsD0Jgyj2ibSQU9Hm8icZfsQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1920" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;">— END&nbsp;—</section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.14681440443213298" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7saCQHNEkoZ3WpKSicoJvuSGT2YxhaRQb63E0VNX5YoBUxS7KVN2yICYlkpBXibLHwGvl051HTyV8A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1083" style="box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 677px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.47348837209302325" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7saCQHNEkoZ3WpKSicoJvuSsxe6Stf2lZYricmTGm7qKQ4icv8wrcCwWjEIjHhxGjXC8icuDhz81OVgw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1075" style="box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 677px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">▷往期文章彩蛋：不要戳开！！！</span></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500345&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=93797fca0ea11825bcc9e5e1c0109c52&amp;chksm=9756b81da021310ba7a377bdce7ef2877fb30eb246731c626bffd343008b77703527595ad2ed&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1" hasload="1" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="line-height: 0;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugLLibwPxIshPkhYb8rUpx6OiaokEiaiaoQAs4pBYvOk4KlGWhp5OagMyWaw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;width: 661px;box-sizing: border-box !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500355&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=2c6ce758ab3881befb2fbba0ba3603f1&amp;chksm=9756b867a021317120bad43bc938ebb4cdb2953af8c54167618f6a0d2e10e4a0c0dbbeb90f65&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1" hasload="1" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="line-height: 0;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xug2z2ZNw3efskOCCTiaR2MZIrkVnqNUUySzc8kPhT5aLfLE1SvHGhoJUw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;width: 661px;box-sizing: border-box !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500384&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=ce96c211a2ed19ee560b34d30d321292&amp;chksm=9756b844a0213152bb36ae4ebc877ea634416495af8892942074d23f0d1b5581b32b705c0835&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1" hasload="1" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="line-height: 0;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugNEZT4DD88icwcAl08ZuziaiadYt82wzZG5n14t7224xWjyeK8SNXNIp8A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;width: 661px;box-sizing: border-box !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500776&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6f4fcd10bc90a8f72744416eda3995a4&amp;chksm=9756b9cca02130da9094518319d318ca4fd11413c1213d18be9cc9d8302528b34816fdd34394&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1" hasload="1" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="line-height: 0;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugA8lpBib3AWM95x6tIIxu56bryKOYOVyRWzd6jsYRjicIiaF1hohgrpN1w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;width: 661px;box-sizing: border-box !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500347&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=dffbd70a87a2f5610cf728e4970ec869&amp;chksm=9756b81fa0213109c740e135c93ac90c20e029871a10bf1ad6d116f9d663d7a26b7d8a673bbe&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1" hasload="1" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="top: auto;left: auto;margin: 0px;right: auto;bottom: auto;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugMQjVx8C1LeClYXAgR1lKe771SGnJj9TxohSmoF4W79ORTDc52UmmNQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;width: 661px;box-sizing: border-box !important;visibility: visible !important;margin: 0px;" /></span></a></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;min-height: 1em;text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 13px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;">2021 | 真好野</span></section><p><br /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;">*</span><br /></section></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com"><section data-role="paragraph" style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com"><section data-role="paragraph"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;">关注分享</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;">FOLLOW US &amp; SHARE ON MOMENTS</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;"><section data-role="paragraph"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="98910"><section data-role="layout" style="flex-flow: row nowrap;display: flex;word-break: break-all;"><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;">官网</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;">微博</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;">视频号</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;">知乎</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;">b站</span></p></section></section></section></section></section><p><br /></p></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="98910"><section data-role="layout" style="flex-flow: row nowrap;display: flex;word-break: break-all;"><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="13" data-backw="13" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="50" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="50" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIycoMZjGF8RrRlGEzqzackrSSVqK5SzNApiaN9vmWpNcEuzuMInkGCcu5SiaAn2iba30oI1cPAeJVnqw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="18" data-backw="18" data-cropselx1="1" data-cropselx2="103" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="104" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZfQibibfZGIkjRNwTHwQ4KNp3zu2sgMcS5VLib1OHNDwOibjnPpUoribI5IcQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" width="50px" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img data-ratio="1.0044247787610618" data-type="png" data-w="226" data-width="50px" height="71" width="50px" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzdKK1pWxDY25IjWC6hzyuZPClD30iaLtAVGt7UszT4kJMlymjsJz0yLneTFRIJS1jvpr56X0OGLrQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 50px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="47" data-backw="47" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZficyibw72OWmSMvgNNjSWoDHlf7aSgplp7dtCDAEFtJKHBnC8qaLHSIeQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" width="50px" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="13" data-backw="13" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="69" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="69" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-width="50px" data-ratio="1" data-w="300" width="50px" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwaUyIuHQngl5c5PD5uQEXrh3UfLLLmbNNIYHsl0uM1fFRJCOicUgwgiaAoBNbUmeBiahGEFZBm9uXAw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section data-role="paragraph"><p><br /></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">感谢你的每一个分享 | 点赞 | 在看</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">SPECIAL THANKS</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">▼▼▼</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><br /></section>