紫金矿业暴赚233亿！铜金量价齐升铸就历史最佳

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">这是对紫金矿业（2899.HK）2025年9月第一上海证券更新报告主要内容的详细总结：</span></span></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心观点：强烈建议“买入”</span></span></strong></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">第一上海证券基于紫金矿业出色的半年度业绩和强劲的未来预期，重申“买入”评级。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">将目标价上调至&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">37.61 港元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，以2025年预测每股盈利计算的市盈率为</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">20倍</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">目标价较当前股价&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">28.24 港元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">有约&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">33.2%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;的上升空间。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心驱动因素一：2025上半年创历史最佳业绩（“量价齐升”）</span></span></strong></span></span></p><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">财务表现超预期：</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">营收</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：1677亿元人民币，同比增长&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">11.5%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">归母净利润</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：233亿元人民币，同比大幅增长&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">54.41%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">综合毛利率</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：23.75%，同比提升&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">4.60个百分点</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。核心的</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">矿产品毛利率高达60.23%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（同比+2.93个百分点）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">盈利弹性显著</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：充分体现了公司对金属价格上涨的高度敏感性。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心业务“双轮驱动”（铜金量价齐升）：</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">产量稳健增长：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">矿产铜</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：56.7万吨 (同比 +9%)</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">矿产金</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：41.2吨 (同比 +</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">16%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">)</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">矿产银、铅锌产量也有所增长。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">价格利好：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;受益于2025上半年全球宏观经济环境对有色金属（特别是铜、金）的有力支撑。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">毛利结构变化：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;由于金价大幅上涨，</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">黄金业务首次超越铜业务</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">成为最大毛利贡献板块（黄金占毛利38.6%，铜占38.5%）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心驱动因素二：资源禀赋优越，增长动力充足</span></span></strong></span></span></p><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">全球资源布局与储备增长：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">在&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">17个国家</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;运营重要投资项目，全球化资产布局（</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">47%资产在海外</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">）有助于有效分散地缘政治风险。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">权益资源量显著增加：&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新增&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">铜资源204.9万吨</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，储量132.2万吨。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新增&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">金资源88.8吨</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，储量34.5吨。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新增&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">碳酸锂当量资源83.4万吨</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，储量35.8万吨。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">锂资源战略价值被强调：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">&nbsp;锂资源储备位居全球前十（阿根廷3Q湖、西藏拉果错盐湖项目推进中）。随着碳酸锂价格企稳反弹及公司行业领先的低成本优势，预计锂业务价值将获得</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">市场重估</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">丰富的资源储备为公司长期持续发展提供坚实基础。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心驱动因素三：未来展望持续乐观，估值具备吸引力</span></span></strong></span></span></p><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">盈利预测上调且前景强劲：</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">对</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2025年全年业绩高度乐观</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，预期下半年：&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">主要矿山维持</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">稳产高产</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">主要金属价格</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">预计维持高位</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">盈利能力</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">有望维持强劲</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">上调2025-2027年盈利预测：&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2025E归母净利润：</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">485亿元人民币</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（同比+51.4%）</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2026E归母净利润：541亿元人民币（同比+11.5%）</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2027E归母净利润：597亿元人民币（同比+10.3%）</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">关键财务预测数据（2025E）：</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">收入：3499亿元（同比+15%）</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">每股盈利（EPS）：1.83元人民币</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">每股股息：0.58元人民币（股息率2.0%）</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">动态市盈率（PE）@28.24港元：15.9倍</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">净资产收益率（ROE）：</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">32.5%</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">毛利率：</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">26.5%</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">净利率：</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">13.9%</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">估值判断：</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">尽管股价近期表现强劲（已创52周新高），但报告认为紫金矿业作为全球矿业龙头，相较全球同业相比，其</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">估值仍偏低</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，未来有</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">修复空间</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">目标价37.61港元即基于此判断（对应2025年PE=20倍）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">总结：</span></span></strong></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">第一上海证券的报告对紫金矿业（2899.HK）给出了非常正面的评价。公司2025上半年受益于核心铜、金矿产的“量价齐升”，取得了创纪录的亮眼业绩。其全球化的资源布局和持续增长的储量（尤其是锂资源潜力），为其未来提供了坚实的基础和发展动力。报告对下半年及未来三年的表现保持乐观，上调了盈利预测和目标价。核心投资逻辑在于公司展现了极强的盈利弹性、拥有优质资源储备且当前估值相对国际同行仍有提升空间，因此维持并强化“买入”建议。</span></span></span></span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>