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经济放缓中如何布局?大宗商品曲线套利、外汇利差交易成关键抓手

发布于 2025-08-20

<h3 style="margin: 16px 0px 0rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.25;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: var(--yb-md-h-color);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">一、经济全景:减速但未失速</span></strong></h3><ol style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: decimal;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000);min-width: 13px; "><span leaf="">1.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">就业市场降温信号</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">8月非农数据不及预期,且前值大幅下修,但失业救济申请仍处历史低位,劳动力市场呈现“停滞”而非“崩溃”:</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100043355" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwno2zUibNDUIP0oQKmgibbPJY15ia2LbQzz0sQQS2RSbWZOAt8RHBlCWxB3a0XwSt4KyOhYaGxpXU8fA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-width: 360px;max-height: 202.5px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: 202.5px;width: 295.821px;" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000);min-width: 13px; "><span leaf="">2.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">消费疲软拖累增长</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">实际零售销售与核心消费支出陷入负增长,消费者“捂紧钱包”趋势明确,与下半年经济减速预期吻合。</span></p></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000);min-width: 13px; "><span leaf="">3.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">通胀压力暂时可控</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">尽管贸易关税高于预期,但7月CPI数据显示商品涨价幅度有限(集中于汽车维修、保险服务),未形成全面通胀压力。服务业通胀虽有回升,但商品需求疲软或抑制涨价持续性。</span></p></span></li></ol><hr style="margin: 32px 0px;border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgb(240, 240, 240);background: none rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h3 style="margin: 16px 0px 0rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.25;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: var(--yb-md-h-color);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">二、大宗商品:曲线套利黄金期</span></strong></h3><ol style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: decimal;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000);min-width: 13px; "><span leaf="">1.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">供应扩张+需求走弱</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">全球经济减速背景下,原油、天然气、谷物供应增加,商品曲线从“现货溢价”转向“期货溢价”,</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">展期收益(Carry)策略迎来窗口期</span></strong><span leaf="">:</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100043354" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwno2zUibNDUIP0oQKmgibbPJYqiaZtNnmNqRdicua2OibsdEZqBgibsar7j4yhFHS8nSO9xyozcFoSWjlhA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-width: 360px;max-height: 202.5px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;width: 360px;height: 81.7883px;" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000);min-width: 13px; "><span leaf="">2.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">两大高确定性机会</span></strong></p></span></li><ul style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000); "><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">能源套利</span></strong><span leaf="">:柴油库存回升叠加炼厂增产,加热油-WTI原油裂解价差有望回归均值,做空价差空间打开。</span></p></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000); "><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">铜市异动</span></strong><span leaf="">:半精炼铜关税豁免引发COMEX铜价单日暴跌12倍标准差,但LME铜价稳定,价差套利机会浮现。</span></p></span></li></ul><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000);min-width: 13px; "><span leaf="">3.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">农业板块需谨慎</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">活牛/瘦猪价差持续背离,可可/咖啡价格高估,均值回归尚未启动。</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">警惕活牛多头仓位过高风险</span></strong><span leaf="">!</span></p></span></li></ol><hr style="margin: 32px 0px;border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgb(240, 240, 240);background: none rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h3 style="margin: 16px 0px 0rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.25;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: var(--yb-md-h-color);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">三、外汇市场:利差交易持续占优</span></strong></h3><ol style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: decimal;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000);min-width: 13px; "><span leaf="">1.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">通胀分化撑起套利空间</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">低息货币(欧元、日元、瑞郎)通胀接近目标,高息货币(英镑、澳元)通胀仍高企,利差交易收益可观:</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100043356" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwno2zUibNDUIP0oQKmgibbPJYSia8uVvk0Vnx2GHic6f67FlztjlPKDWzXL0IxngMTD16cjoD8IWBRepw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-width: 360px;max-height: 202.5px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: 202.5px;width: 308.072px;" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style=" margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline; text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000);min-width: 13px; "><span leaf="">2.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">新兴市场异军突起</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">拉美货币受益于通胀差+美元走弱,新兴市场套利策略在8月风险事件中展现抗跌性。</span></p></span></li></ol><hr style="margin: 32px 0px;border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgb(240, 240, 240);background: none rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h3 style="margin: 16px 0px 0rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.25;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;color: var(--yb-md-h-color);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">四、实战策略:减速时代的财富地图</span></strong></h3><table style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: none;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 14px;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border-collapse: collapse;border-spacing: 0px;min-width: 100%;width: max-content;max-width: max-content;table-layout: auto;"><thead><tr style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><th style="margin: 0px;padding: 10px 12px 10px 0px;border-top: none;border-right: none;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(240, 240, 240);border-left: none;border-image: initial;font-weight: bold;vertical-align: middle;color: var(--yb-md-th-color);text-align: left;max-width: 448px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">领域</span></p></th><th style="margin: 0px;padding: 10px 12px 10px 0px;border-top: none;border-right: none;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(240, 240, 240);border-left: none;border-image: initial;font-weight: bold;vertical-align: middle;color: var(--yb-md-th-color);text-align: left;max-width: 448px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">机会方向</span></p></th><th style="margin: 0px;padding: 10px 12px 10px 0px;border-top: none;border-right: none;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(240, 240, 240);border-left: none;border-image: initial;font-weight: bold;vertical-align: middle;color: var(--yb-md-th-color);text-align: left;max-width: 448px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">风险警示</span></p></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><td style="margin: 0px;padding: 10px 12px 10px 0px;border-top: 0px;border-right: none;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(240, 240, 240);border-left: none;border-image: initial;font: var(--yb-font-body-medium);vertical-align: middle;color: var(--yb-md-text-color);text-align: left;max-width: 448px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">大宗商品</span></strong></p></td><td style="margin: 0px;padding: 10px 12px 10px 0px;border-top: 0px;border-right: none;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(240, 240, 240);border-left: none;border-image: initial;font: var(--yb-font-body-medium);vertical-align: middle;color: var(--yb-md-text-color);text-align: left;max-width: 448px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">做空柴油裂解价差</span></p></td><td style="margin: 0px;padding: 10px 12px 10px 0px;border-top: 0px;border-right: none;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(240, 240, 240);border-left: none;border-image: initial;font: var(--yb-font-body-medium);vertical-align: middle;color: var(--yb-md-text-color);text-align: left;max-width: 448px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">农业价差回归滞后</span></p></td></tr><tr style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><td style="margin: 0px;padding: 10px 12px 10px 0px;border-top: 0px;border-right: none;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(240, 240, 240);border-left: none;border-image: initial;font: var(--yb-font-body-medium);vertical-align: middle;color: var(--yb-md-text-color);text-align: left;max-width: 448px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section></td><td style="margin: 0px;padding: 10px 12px 10px 0px;border-top: 0px;border-right: none;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(240, 240, 240);border-left: none;border-image: initial;font: var(--yb-font-body-medium);vertical-align: middle;color: var(--yb-md-text-color);text-align: left;max-width: 448px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">LME/CME铜价差套利</span></p></td><td style="margin: 0px;padding: 10px 12px 10px 0px;border-top: 0px;border-right: none;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(240, 240, 240);border-left: none;border-image: initial;font: var(--yb-font-body-medium);vertical-align: middle;color: var(--yb-md-text-color);text-align: left;max-width: 448px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">活牛多头仓位过高</span></p></td></tr><tr style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><td style="margin: 0px;padding: 10px 12px 10px 0px;border-top: 0px;border-right: none;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(240, 240, 240);border-left: none;border-image: initial;font: var(--yb-font-body-medium);vertical-align: middle;color: var(--yb-md-text-color);text-align: left;max-width: 448px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">外汇</span></strong></p></td><td style="margin: 0px;padding: 10px 12px 10px 0px;border-top: 0px;border-right: none;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(240, 240, 240);border-left: none;border-image: initial;font: var(--yb-font-body-medium);vertical-align: middle;color: var(--yb-md-text-color);text-align: left;max-width: 448px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">做多澳元/日元利差</span></p></td><td style="margin: 0px;padding: 10px 12px 10px 0px;border-top: 0px;border-right: none;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(240, 240, 240);border-left: none;border-image: initial;font: var(--yb-font-body-medium);vertical-align: middle;color: var(--yb-md-text-color);text-align: left;max-width: 448px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">美联储政策转向超预期</span></p></td></tr><tr style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><td style="margin: 0px;padding: 10px 12px 10px 0px;border-top: 0px;border-right: none;border-bottom: none;border-left: none;border-image: initial;font: var(--yb-font-body-medium);vertical-align: middle;color: var(--yb-md-text-color);text-align: left;max-width: 448px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section></td><td style="margin: 0px;padding: 10px 12px 10px 0px;border-top: 0px;border-right: none;border-bottom: none;border-left: none;border-image: initial;font: var(--yb-font-body-medium);vertical-align: middle;color: var(--yb-md-text-color);text-align: left;max-width: 448px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">拉美高息货币套利</span></p></td><td style="margin: 0px;padding: 10px 12px 10px 0px;border-top: 0px;border-right: none;border-bottom: none;border-left: none;border-image: initial;font: var(--yb-font-body-medium);vertical-align: middle;color: var(--yb-md-text-color);text-align: left;max-width: 448px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">全球经济加速衰退</span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><blockquote style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;border-top: 0px;border-right: 0px;border-bottom: 0px;border-left: solid var(--yb-md-blockquote-border-color) 4px;border-image: initial;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;quotes: none;color: var(--yb-md-blockquote-color);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">核心口诀</span></strong><span leaf="">:经济未恶化时抓套利(Carry),加速衰退时转防御(Value)!</span></p></blockquote><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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