官网首页 › 研究观点 › 观点正文

聊聊不同调控政策的差异

发布于 2021-08-26

<section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" data-mpa-powered-by="yiban.io"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;justify-content: flex-end;line-height: 1.5em;text-indent: 0em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 562px;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p><img data-backh="121" data-backw="370" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="390" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="575" data-ratio="1.5197740112994351" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVOaA7FAucfGlibkoEcfqDjjlI7IymK65uUkxYZTeb3HrX4X4enfbMbk1VDeR2ib2q7IwGOTuSq0xA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="354" style="height: 383px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;text-align: center;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);text-indent: 36px;width: 252px;" /></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;justify-content: flex-end;line-height: 1.5em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;width: 562px;vertical-align: top;height: auto;border-width: 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: justify;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin: 5px 15px;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p><section style="letter-spacing: -1px;text-align: right;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: -20px;border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;z-index: 0;text-align: center;justify-content: center;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;width: 270.797px;vertical-align: top;height: auto;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;justify-content: center;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;justify-content: center;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;justify-content: center;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align: right;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;">▼<br /></span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color:#b2b2b2;"><span style="font-size: 10px;"><span style="text-align: center;"></span>前言</span></span></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">上次我们聊了为打破“<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247504650&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7dcec8c3ae6ff1208d1350dcd2d544b2&amp;chksm=9756a92ea0212038826a76d5cca153a8d84c42e9d3fdd75a2dcb6278fc34738ecf85e804b614&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="富人躺赢+中产内卷+穷人躺平" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2">富人躺赢+中产内卷+穷人躺平</a>”的财富分配困局,我们认为政府将延用富人和穷人、发达与不发达的核心分类治理逻辑,给出了<strong>一二线高房价区域去地产化+超强管控+土地高效化+加快民生化,三四线中低房价区域加快市场化+鼓励金融化+房价泡沫化+土地集约化</strong>等8个调控预判。<br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">对于三四线中低房价区域的预判,很多读者留意对房价泡沫化有异议,简要做个解释,泡沫化是个中性词,没有泡沫就不可能有额外收益。在全球货币超发的背景下,泡沫已经呈现常态化。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这里说的泡沫化,一方面是想说很多基本面还不错的城市房价也才7000-8000/㎡,即使从居民收入来看也是相对安全的;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">另一方面随着经济的发展,房价3-5年从7000<span style="font-size: 14px;">/㎡</span>走向10000<span style="font-size: 14px;">/㎡</span>这是大概率事件,<strong>数值不大但比例不错,民愤小监管弱有支撑</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">为什么要说这一点呢?因为这很有可能是住宅市场未来唯一能获取10-15%净利的方式。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">最近调控政策有增无减, 8月楼市调控继续井喷,据相关数据统计,年内突破400次刷新纪录。在此背景下,<strong>很多朋友都在问如何看待各式各样的调控政策?</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 28px;"><strong style="font-size: 14px;white-space: normal;"><br /></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;"><strong><span style="font-size: 24px;">不同政策的差别</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我心理默默想,不是已经说了超强管控吗?但似乎大家并不买单,于是最近又急忙补课研究了一下不同政策的差别,同步跟大家分享。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">为了区分琳琅满目的政策,识别背后的动机,做出一些可能的预判,特意制图一张对各类调整政策进行归类统筹分析。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">图1:房地产调控政策归类图</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-ratio="1.2922143579373104" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy40LP3ic7sAia4KnB5AVAPJFxYPcu8FOl7ERn0ZXKoJ5Yiby1xSl3e4W9ADBVrc1QKgxAClHD79XVuA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="989" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">分析政策,我选择从<strong>“房住不炒”这个政府基调出发</strong>.</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">通常看到这句话,我的问题,过去谁在炒?表面上看,是有钱的居民在炒,因为看到了巨大的财富效应;叠加房地产开发商制造稀缺感,不断拉高房价。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">但实际上,这是结果不是原因,房价是大量资金流入的结果,还有政府和银行两个角色,政府需要加快城市化发展经济,银行需要消化巨额M2获取收益。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">具体从经济学角度来看,<strong>价格是市场竞争的结果</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">房价高,是因为大家觉得值得待、值得来、值得买。<strong>最残酷的现实是,房价再高,也还是很多人买得起。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">年轻人最容易犯的一个错误,就是美化自己的困境或者处境,所谓,此处不留爷自有留爷处。如果年轻的时候能正视现实,不要陷入对自我的美化,会在老了之后少一点遗憾。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">基于这个控制“炒”思路,我们采用细分主体分类调控的思路。这里讲的<strong>第一个核心是看待调控的角度,需要看主体,4个主体代表不同地产红利链条,买方居民、卖方房企、配角银行、主角政府。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">补充一段,本文分析的核心思路是围绕“房住不炒”这个主题,除了控制“炒”,政府也在积极加强“住”这个功能,特别是针对中低收入群体(姑且这么定义,因为真正低收入群体获取不到),有各种廉租房、安居房、共有产权等,且比例一直在提高。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">根据住房“十四五”规划,<strong>广州</strong>要“新增131万城镇住房,解决300万人住房问题。”具体包括商品房65万套,保障性安居房66万套,<strong>保障性首次超过商品房</strong>。</span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>深圳</strong>将2018年制定的“到2035年新增各类住房170万套以上”指标,首次调整为“新增各类住房200万套以上”;在都市核心区内重点增加小户型和租赁性住房;人才住房、安居型商品房、公共租赁住房等公共住房比例不低于新增住房总套数的<strong>60%</strong>等。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这方面就是预判的“一二线<strong>高房价区域住房民生化”</strong>具体落地,除了北上广深,强二线城市也将逐步进入50%大关的红线,这是历史大趋势。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></span></section><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section data-id="85855" style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="text-align: center;margin:10px auto;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="border-top: 2px solid;border-bottom: 2px solid;padding-top: 4px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 4px;display: inline-block;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: inline-block;float: left;width:60px;background-color: rgb(254,254,254);margin-top:-8px;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: table;width: 100%;color: inherit;border-color: rgb(72, 192, 163);" data-width="100%" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: table-cell;line-height:1em;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><em style="color: #000000;font-size: 42px;" data-original-title="" title="">1</em></section></section></section><section style="color: rgb(72, 192, 163);float: left;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><span style="color: #000000;font-size: 18px;" data-brushtype="text">居民端</span></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">首先,我们聊聊<strong>居民端</strong>,这是炒房的直接参与者,调控可以细分为3个方面。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="338" data-backw="491" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy40LP3ic7sAia4KnB5AVAPJF9BGeFzFymiaqG65TpWqE93JpriahmICruibmnicE3icHBerTxZ3sUOayAJw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="971.2087912087912" data-cropy1="0" data-cropy2="668.5714285714287" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6869207003089598" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIy40LP3ic7sAia4KnB5AVAPJFMOecwut8RnLWADyNicJwENib3QqUZ49pqhZs4GWubFaCoEgWtdsmdUog/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="971" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong>提门槛:4要-户籍、社保、住房、婚姻</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">重点是减少参与的群体数量,全民参与容易产生系统风险,对面美国的次贷危机就是个案例。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">所以<strong>这方面的调控核心作用控风险</strong>,对于打压房价比较有限,道理很简单,因为中国的大城市不缺量,在人口规模体量优势及户籍制度相对宽松的条件下,名额的稀缺度有限,除个别是要求极其严格的城市。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><strong>增成本:3高-首付、利率、税费</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">这个是<strong>直接降低居民的潜在购房收益</strong>,减弱购房意愿,在房价大涨的背景下通常效果有限,一套房赚100%,成本增加20%,普通老百姓都会算账无所谓;</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">辩证看,如果出现下行,那么他的作用就开始突显,亏1%或许可以忍受,亏10%也许就是心里底线,这就是心理学里头的<strong>“风险厌恶”,亏10%的痛苦要远远大于赚10%的快乐</strong>。</span></p><p><br /></p></li><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><strong>降预期:4限-限售、限购、限贷、限价</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">这个是<strong>间接降低居民的潜在收益</strong>,核心是控制预期,所以他的作用不在于短期,而在于<strong>3-5年中长期</strong>,问题在于,我们老百姓是不看中长期的,而且时间拉长不确性增加,<strong>习惯于长期问题短期化</strong>。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">于是大家对于限售、限购反而会解读为稀缺性,因为市场上流通的房屋变少了,最终导致,我们过去很少一段时间所谓”越限越涨“的怪圈。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">四限这块最有意思的就是<strong>价格管制</strong>,其实跳出房地产,<strong>只要涉及民生方面的领域,都存在超强的价格管制</strong>,医疗、教育、交通都是超强控制,药品、学费、公交车费都是国家制定标准,医院、学校、地铁公司权限非常有限。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">市场经济下主流的竞争方式价高者得,所以价格竞争是最主流和高效的方式,价格管制实际上是引入了另一种或几种竞争方式,让没有钱的人有了竞争机会,所以很多人赞成,很多国家实施。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">一旦实施了,就涉及很多人的利益,再想改回来就会有很多人不同意,甚至阻挠。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></span></section><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section data-id="85855" style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="text-align: center;margin:10px auto;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="border-top: 2px solid;border-bottom: 2px solid;padding-top: 4px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 4px;display: inline-block;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: inline-block;float: left;width:60px;background-color: rgb(254,254,254);margin-top:-8px;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: table;width: 100%;color: inherit;border-color: rgb(72, 192, 163);" data-width="100%" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: table-cell;line-height:1em;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><em style="color: #000000;font-size: 42px;" data-original-title="" title="">2</em></section></section></section><span style="color:#000000;"><span style="font-size: 18px;">房企端</span></span></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">再来,说说<strong>房企端</strong>,同样可以分为3个角度来看。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="302" data-backw="488" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy40LP3ic7sAia4KnB5AVAPJFmDE2UaRqZfXEpsR5yWjITRDJegEbXcjVicAib0lFO9IoEx43YSJwmydA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="903.6043956043957" data-cropy1="0" data-cropy2="559.1978021978022" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6201550387596899" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIy40LP3ic7sAia4KnB5AVAPJFRrbdKXVudCjozKHP8ibGycCxibCpzCrmZZgtlX0pibiaFiao6MaOW5kmnVA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="903" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><strong>提门槛、要实力。</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">去年比较多的是土拍时要求现房销售,其实是对资金实力的要求,不能一味的玩高周转,今年转向竞自持,除了要有资金实力,还需要有运营能力,运营方向就是出租,包括住宅、公寓、商业、写字楼等。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>租房市场的差异,往往会大于销售市场</strong>,商铺租金可以是0元/平(空置),也可以是1000元/平,一半海水一半火焰很正常,商场的运营更是如此,而且时间越长,差异越大。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>所以这是个筛选优质企业的方式,预判未来这个方向会持续强化,弱化销售、强化运营,</strong>作为企业再把什么高周转作为核心战略,大概率就会把自己转没,前面的大哥已经在路上了。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><strong>降利润、实业化。</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">这个是基于共同富裕和第三次分配的底层逻辑来的。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">过去国家以发展为核心,<strong>以追求效率为重</strong>,每个房地产企业和从业人员都享受到了行业红利,而现在<strong>转向公平主导</strong>,利润率走低是大概率事件,大家需要做好15%毛利,5%净利的准备。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">我开工厂的同学经常对房地产行业不服,为何你们地产行业一个普通职员都有2-3万的月薪,而我们一个厂长管理几千员工,月薪也是2-3万。<strong>“不患寡而患不均”是真实人性的反应</strong>。</span></p><p><br /></p></li><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><strong>控风险、去杠杆。</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">过去我们都是口袋1块钱,干着10块的生意,在上涨周期内,获利是倍增,但下降或者平稳周期内,风险也是倍增。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">不知道大家发现一个有趣的现象没有?好几个2016-2017年,从百亿瞬间突破成为了千亿的企业,这两年都没有声音了,什么全员跟投、阿米巴组织也是风靡一时,背后都是为了做大蛋糕,抢占市场,但个人不是企业,抵御风险的能力太弱了。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>加杠杆不是一种能力,是一种选择而已,往往不可持续。</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p><br /></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></span></section><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section data-id="85855" style="border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="text-align: center;margin:10px auto;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="border-top: 2px solid;border-bottom: 2px solid;padding-top: 4px;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 4px;display: inline-block;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: inline-block;float: left;width:60px;background-color: rgb(254,254,254);margin-top:-8px;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: table;width: 100%;color: inherit;border-color: rgb(72, 192, 163);" data-width="100%" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: table-cell;line-height:1em;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><em style="color: #000000;font-size: 42px;" data-original-title="" title="">3</em></section></section></section><section style="color: rgb(72, 192, 163);float: left;" mpa-from-tpl="t"><span style="color: #000000;font-size: 18px;" data-brushtype="text">政府和银行<br /></span></section></section></section></section></section><p><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">最后说说<strong>主角政府和配角银行。</strong></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="368" data-backw="508" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy40LP3ic7sAia4KnB5AVAPJFWp0icEXgrqdjRaaDdWGveMVZl7RutRzibgYJTfHBHAic3L3FdRYB0c7Og/640?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1004.8351648351648" data-cropy1="0" data-cropy2="725.934065934066" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7241035856573705" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIy40LP3ic7sAia4KnB5AVAPJFFu6pzaejKosibVDwNkZ7fKR3zBfkjqDfummRC9RvWZcnuZPqoiaGzLmA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1004" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>政府的发力端口主要是土地,即原材料,有控总量、调节奏2种方式</strong>。因为有绝对的地段稀缺性,类同中东的石油、澳洲的铁矿,所以是主导市场价格的决定性因子。那<strong>从分散到集中供地,会产生哪些影响?</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">图2:重庆首批集中供地空间分部</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-ratio="0.9766423357664233" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy40LP3ic7sAia4KnB5AVAPJFbXkqhdYaicIlpia5sZrb1vWibO6XjluueaGz359FOwdXKcibmsThczPsibg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="685" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">有文章说,这个就是从零售到批发,我觉得这是买方思维体系,最终量大价优?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">普通商品不具有垄断和稀缺性,从零售到批发,是<strong>“N对N”到“1对N”</strong>的变化,因为交易成本的下降,所以价可以优。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">比如1000个人去个店铺买了50件衣服,意味着1000次接待、200次试穿、100次价格谈判、50次成交,过程都是损耗,1个人去批发50件衣服,卖方所消耗人力物力明显少很多。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>卖方市场体系下的土地交易是“1对N”到“N对N”</strong>,更多的是系统的统筹和设计,所以过程中也在不断摸索调整,不同城市为了规避不同问题,也尝试过不同的方案。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">对于一年卖地3-4次,<strong>路径是提高门槛+集中交易,结果是类同股市机构化、去散户化,对房企专业研判的要求和系统的运营能力提高</strong>,不是过去那种随机性或者机会性投资,即散户的买卖方式。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">比如,即将登场的广州第二批集中供地,限房价、禁马甲、限销售对象,土拍方式就有三种:</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">①“限地价+竞自持+摇号”;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">②“限房价+限地价+竞自持+摇号”;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">③“限地价+竞自持+一次性书面报价”。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">完美践行全面超强管控、动态优化改进的思路。</span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">最终的结果,就是把有这两种能力的企业筛选出来,并不是说把小规模的企业淘汰,而是把不重视研究看天吃饭,不重视运营只玩金融的企业淘汰,这个政策跟房价基本无关。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">图3:重庆首批用地-供地月份周期预判</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-ratio="0.9552683896620279" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy40LP3ic7sAia4KnB5AVAPJFHicxldT7I0PfNiaktwiakaXBVZhVYbJIQ8fnT7sFG8hR7YQuxEvLv0zhA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1006" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">银行方面,有一个总量控制要求,这个是真正将过去10年提的控制房地产过度金融化、去虚向实的一个实质性举措,另一方面就是限制资金的流通边界,防止经营贷流入房地产市场。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1.29" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy40LP3ic7sAia4KnB5AVAPJFNOBwgpXAT0UbZ8zGH16aFBTOlP9AV8kic9oaG6OzmAHgWlKupwc5J1Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="600" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">贷款管控方面说说二手房参考价,具体跟力度相关,包括范围和价差,很多人不明白<strong>为什么深圳二手房参考价效果那么显著?</strong>我认为有3个原因。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">一是二手房已成为绝对主导市场,2020年全市二手房成交套数占比67.7%,传统关内80-90%的交易都是二手房;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">二是它跟一手房限价形成了组合效应;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">三是大幅提高了准入成本。举例来说,1000万的房子,政府只给700万贷款额度,那300万就得首付了,所以同样是名义上的3成首付,真实的一次性资金要求,从300万变成了500万,对应的有效人群比例幂次上升。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;justify-content: flex-end;line-height: 1.5em;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 562px;vertical-align: top;height: auto;border-width: 0px;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><p style="text-align: center;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;">▼</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">小结</span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">本次关于近期对房地产调控政策的理解就聊到这里,主要是些个人洞察,尝试对政策进行归类,并研判潜在的逻辑及影响力,并没有很多数据论证。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">落地研究也是个专题,并不是市面上大家看到的统计归类,需要从不同城市的政策差异,结合市场表现、城市量价、人群结构、土地财政、产业实力去洞察一些潜在的规律,给出一些具体的预判,<strong>从效率优先到公平主导的发展策略下,更多元的调控措施在酝酿中,我们能做的就是洞悉逻辑、分类研判、做出选择</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">大家对城市研究感兴趣,想做进一步交流</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">欢迎加钟老师微信,期待观点碰撞<br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIwS5riabx0rDcDAxFuaqlIxVDJsVSKBhKLPTncVXuIRkvSFbic1hOb0fyno5O5RenSYsxyYYcYJBCPg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="430" /></p><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">- 小军怼城系列持续更新中&nbsp;-</span><br /></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247501240&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9be78e8d6cf412ee6d8fc8a3b50a7725&amp;chksm=9756bf9ca021368affa8145323b472c8db160804658f95227e66f4e02813a30ef3bfc0628d97&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="城市价值评估" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2">城市价值评估</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247502221&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=482a963668925980a37994a5ed71ca78&amp;chksm=9756b3a9a0213abf8fc9fe023e2b736039dcb4ffd07ca723b45b4a47d6b304c5b7bf948ad4d7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="板块价值识别" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2">板块价值识别</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247503141&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f92488f297ea1b4b74c946428905d367&amp;chksm=9756b701a0213e17bf323cb91417bf821f9d21aa7306c8aff37dc8f477a3557f69905dec9d68&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="人群特征洞察" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2">人群特征洞察</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247503388&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=0f062d813045673d04c4b7be347791ec&amp;chksm=9756b438a0213d2e083602e6515dbb9bb37a733263a836463d7b5a9e43ee92c538be54659260&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="战略规划理解" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2">战略规划理解</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247503934&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=29dbe853caf4dea0d356e22778a4d966&amp;chksm=9756aa1aa021230c64e6b0447a3208a9136be80b0388f9c85a67816aa8e53537e3e165f8da39&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="人口结构梳理" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2">人口结构梳理</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247504018&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=269c9d6c2e6915926a4cc240d7ac8dcf&amp;chksm=9756aab6a02123a00b15021f1aa6bcafc9cc1fbb4b049afd92368f33044b67dc22614f96d0a8&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="价值预判模型" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2">价值预判模型</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247504155&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7a312d239ffb7fd2e75a2005d48f8f1a&amp;chksm=9756ab3fa0212229e07cc62ecb672bcaeac96c08614f73cc0fd16d7de8c4be0785036e6a7156&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="关于“钱”的理解" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2">关于“钱”的理解</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247504650&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7dcec8c3ae6ff1208d1350dcd2d544b2&amp;chksm=9756a92ea0212038826a76d5cca153a8d84c42e9d3fdd75a2dcb6278fc34738ecf85e804b614&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="地产调控理解" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2">地产调控理解</a> |</span><br /></section></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;"><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></section><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="white-space: normal;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="padding-top: 6px;padding-bottom: 6px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 578px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 578px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="width: 26px;height: 29px;"><img data-ratio="1.1153846153846154" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/jqQyPyCWMH27oWYoG13J4k2rPODvVv129aAEZ3w9G5ynrUSOS3SbHgA2iaS4KmzcfNudKJ8oYJO44kIrkrSXSWg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="52" /></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="white-space: normal;"><section style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(123, 127, 131);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">未完待续</span></p></section></section></section><p style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: red;">&nbsp;-&nbsp; 小程序 -&nbsp;</span><br /></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">&nbsp;·</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">「禾略问答」</span><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">·</span></section><p><a class="weapp_image_link js_weapp_entry" data-miniprogram-appid="wxf051804df9944e68" data-miniprogram-path="pages/index/index" data-miniprogram-nickname="禾略问答" href="" data-miniprogram-type="image" data-miniprogram-servicetype="" href=""><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.33830455259026687" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxgXqtJ7x2ATMbtIm1oBmTM5cLtzxaHKiaJINP1DiaedwSS8oUuQadhFxpcXZiaWxTvWyWxXichXeiaGHw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1274" style="" /></a></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;caret-color: red;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;·<span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">「HotTina」</span>·</span><br /></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="white-space: normal;"><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><a class="weapp_image_link js_weapp_entry" data-miniprogram-appid="wxdcdd1e610d71ae74" data-miniprogram-path="pages/serch/serch" data-miniprogram-nickname="HotTina" href="" data-miniprogram-type="image" data-miniprogram-servicetype="" href=""><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="120" data-backw="389" data-ratio="0.30973451327433627" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxBKiaQNH3yAajSVKNDghYCq5gnROOAWjmdwIqhP9gBLpU9iaicBb19EGQVKpTzeP0lOXYyF5icG1y74Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="791" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></a></section><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(123, 127, 131);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(123, 127, 131);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">*</span></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(123, 127, 131);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">▷往期文章彩蛋:不要戳开!!!</span></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500345&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=93797fca0ea11825bcc9e5e1c0109c52&amp;chksm=9756b81da021310ba7a377bdce7ef2877fb30eb246731c626bffd343008b77703527595ad2ed&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="inset: auto;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugLLibwPxIshPkhYb8rUpx6OiaokEiaiaoQAs4pBYvOk4KlGWhp5OagMyWaw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500355&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=2c6ce758ab3881befb2fbba0ba3603f1&amp;chksm=9756b867a021317120bad43bc938ebb4cdb2953af8c54167618f6a0d2e10e4a0c0dbbeb90f65&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="inset: auto;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xug2z2ZNw3efskOCCTiaR2MZIrkVnqNUUySzc8kPhT5aLfLE1SvHGhoJUw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500384&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=ce96c211a2ed19ee560b34d30d321292&amp;chksm=9756b844a0213152bb36ae4ebc877ea634416495af8892942074d23f0d1b5581b32b705c0835&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="inset: auto;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugNEZT4DD88icwcAl08ZuziaiadYt82wzZG5n14t7224xWjyeK8SNXNIp8A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500776&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6f4fcd10bc90a8f72744416eda3995a4&amp;chksm=9756b9cca02130da9094518319d318ca4fd11413c1213d18be9cc9d8302528b34816fdd34394&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="inset: auto;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugA8lpBib3AWM95x6tIIxu56bryKOYOVyRWzd6jsYRjicIiaF1hohgrpN1w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500347&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=dffbd70a87a2f5610cf728e4970ec869&amp;chksm=9756b81fa0213109c740e135c93ac90c20e029871a10bf1ad6d116f9d663d7a26b7d8a673bbe&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="inset: auto;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugMQjVx8C1LeClYXAgR1lKe771SGnJj9TxohSmoF4W79ORTDc52UmmNQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></a></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: right;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;"></span><br /></section></section></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: right;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 13px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2021 | 真好野</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: right;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="93717" data-width="95%" style="margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 627.938px;flex: 0 0 95%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;background-image: url(&quot;https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/7QRTvkK2qC6tIGvc3ozCHcBonywI7fDV4Ksmoy5hWQHibq7TQpAQ5tricOQ7dnLg81iapxGeoUkic5Ob8vHOSI24xQ/640?wx_fmt=png&quot;);background-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 1em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 13px;caret-color: red;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="1.4151260504201681" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugicDNgxJwtUNwSbyTwoKMeKhpicXuMUPzremXkHSdoKAkunXaicYu2AOtw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="595" style="height: 555px;box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;width: 392px;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;" title="好.png" /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;caret-color: red;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;「 www.urasr.com」&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);caret-color: red;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 10px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">#BE TRUE&nbsp; #BE WELL&nbsp; #BE WILD</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(163, 163, 163);letter-spacing: 1.5px;font-family: 微软雅黑, Arial, sans-serif;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 0px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"></span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;caret-color: red;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">*</span><br /></section></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">关注分享</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;caret-color: red;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">FOLLOW US &amp; SHARE ON MOMENTS</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="98910"><section data-role="layout" style="flex-flow: row nowrap;display: flex;word-break: break-all;"><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">官网</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">微博</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">视频号</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">知乎</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">b站</span></p></section></section></section></section></section><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="98910"><section data-role="layout" style="flex-flow: row nowrap;display: flex;word-break: break-all;"><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="13" data-backw="13" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="50" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="50" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIycoMZjGF8RrRlGEzqzackrSSVqK5SzNApiaN9vmWpNcEuzuMInkGCcu5SiaAn2iba30oI1cPAeJVnqw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);width: 50px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;height: 50px;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-cropselx1="1" data-cropselx2="103" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="104" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-width="50px" width="50px" data-backw="18" data-backh="18" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZfQibibfZGIkjRNwTHwQ4KNp3zu2sgMcS5VLib1OHNDwOibjnPpUoribI5IcQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="1" data-w="300" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);width: 50px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img data-ratio="1.0044247787610618" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzdKK1pWxDY25IjWC6hzyuZPClD30iaLtAVGt7UszT4kJMlymjsJz0yLneTFRIJS1jvpr56X0OGLrQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="226" data-width="50px" height="71" width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 50px;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-width="50px" width="50px" data-backw="47" data-backh="47" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZficyibw72OWmSMvgNNjSWoDHlf7aSgplp7dtCDAEFtJKHBnC8qaLHSIeQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="1" data-w="300" style="box-sizing: border-box;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);width: 50px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="13" data-backw="13" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="69" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="69" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-width="50px" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwaUyIuHQngl5c5PD5uQEXrh3UfLLLmbNNIYHsl0uM1fFRJCOicUgwgiaAoBNbUmeBiahGEFZBm9uXAw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="1" data-w="300" width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);width: 50px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">感谢你的每一个分享 | 点赞 | 在看</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">SPECIAL THANKS</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">▼▼▼</span></section></section>

← 返回观点全库