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聊聊中国十大重点城市的二手房情况

发布于 2022-11-25

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border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align: right;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: right;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;padding-right: 2em;padding-left: 2em;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;min-height: 1em;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Futura-Medium;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 17px;background-color: rgb(56, 55, 54);font-family: PingFangSC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;+预计阅读时间6分钟&nbsp;</em></span></strong></span></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;text-align: center;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(73, 73, 73);font-size: 14px;font-family: PingFangSC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">「 本文共2161字 」</span></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(73, 73, 73);font-size: 14px;font-family: PingFangSC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;line-height: 2em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp; &nbsp;/&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></span></em></span></strong><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">CHAPEAU</span></strong></strong></span></em></span></strong><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">/</span></strong></strong></span></em></span></strong></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);white-space: normal;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: didot;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">前言</span></strong></em></span></strong></strong></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);white-space: normal;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: didot;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></strong></em></span></strong></strong></span></strong></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">上次,我们谈了如何看待二手房抛盘?并给出用<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">抛盘-关注-交易的逻辑来研判二手房的健康度及对一手房的冲击</strong></span>。</p><p style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">本次,我们采用贝壳网的挂牌及交易数据,随机选取<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">中国十大重点城市</strong></span>进行对比分析,聊聊他们的一些差异。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;">首先,我们整体预览下,</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;"><strong style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;">2022年10月10城二手房挂牌量及变化情况:</strong><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.3583333" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIwXr5LSyVGiaHwnG3Y7ZZMZyXiaxKicsmxCk9LEAbgL7oWCickhzYePHyYX6yb5uBic3oh24JccQZWiaAPQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1080" style="text-align: center;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" /></p></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">有几个数据可以重点关注下,10个城市平均挂牌套数是12.46万套,同比增加<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">57.4%</span></strong>,其中广州、佛山、南京的增幅较大。</section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">所以,需要说明的是过去1年整体市场都在快速下行,所以从城市自身看的话,体感基本都是很惨的,比较的目的在于找到相对好的,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">识别当下所处的阶段,未来可能变好的</span></strong>。</section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0px;padding-right: 16px;padding-left: 16px;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;text-align: center;justify-content: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 19px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);width: 1.8em;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;font-size: 22px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">1</strong></p></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: center;border-bottom: 0px solid rgb(62, 62, 62);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;margin-right: 20px;margin-left: 20px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 22px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">哪个城市</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 22px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">抛盘量最大?</strong></span></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 73px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">”</p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">住房是供给,需要结合潜在需求研判抛盘量,即相对“人”的多少。</section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">具体而言,我们选择城镇人口会相对准确一些,因为部分地域城镇化水平低,会受到一定干扰,也可以同步考虑户均人口,用<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">套数/户数</strong>。</section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">很多人会用销量去评估供给,需要注意的是<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">销量具有很强的周期性</strong></span>,建议采用一个完整的周期去评估供给,得到真实的“<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">库存周期</span></strong>”。</section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;">如果用短期的销售去评估(如最近3个月、6个月或者1年),那等于假设了市场运行是线性的,显然是错误的。</section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;"><strong style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;box-sizing: border-box;">2022年10月10城二手房挂牌量情况:</strong><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.3916667" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwXr5LSyVGiaHwnG3Y7ZZMZyI5aXGhZsZgEbJ5e3vIicgk7icCzh1ecTAMl42uHss9OcXia3I6gPbeTlQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="text-align: center;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-indent: 2em;">在我们统计的典型的10大重点城市中,出人意料,</span><strong style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">南京每千人挂牌量最大</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-indent: 2em;">,每千人挂牌套数为18.4套。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-indent: 2em;">第2-4名沈阳、大连、天津基本都是北方城市,应该比较符合大家的认知。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">但供给量大,不一定就风险大,还得结合<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">当前潜在需求</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;">来看。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></span></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;text-align: center;justify-content: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 19px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);display: inline-block;width: 1.8em;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;font-size: 22px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</strong></p></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: center;border-bottom: 0px solid rgb(62, 62, 62);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;margin-right: 20px;margin-left: 20px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 22px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">哪个城市</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 22px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">关注量最少?</strong></span></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 73px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">”</p></section></section></section></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">首先需要解释下关注的重要性,它是交易的<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">先行指标</span></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">,</span></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">具有一定的预测价值</span></strong>。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwXr5LSyVGiaHwnG3Y7ZZMZyt6zQicMltf9HZQUricwquNEZHes9QlQlyMe9Yny1Vl775BUrTeLCN7Kw/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1880.7901234567903" data-cropy1="0" data-cropy2="253.9753086419753" data-ratio="0.134375" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIwXr5LSyVGiaHwnG3Y7ZZMZyicnW6ukvjOIZlt9HMBb9t7UibG4hicEibXgF6ouBPWdc3K5kbJEOV5HHOQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="vertical-align: middle;width: 548px;box-sizing: border-box;height: 74px;" /></section></section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="text-indent: 0em;">一套房需要快速地达到交易,首先要有客户关注,再是实地看房,最后是价格洽谈等过程,是个高度正相关的指标体系。</span><br /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">比如,我们习惯于说<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">有量无价、有价无市</span></strong>,反应的是交易双方之间的博弈,量的波动先于价也通常是市场的普通规律。</section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">说到量价,经过此次行业调整,我们应该认知到的是:不是地价决定房价,而是<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">房价决定地价</span></strong>。</section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">需求是个巨大的弹性因子,不是需要区分改善和刚需,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">而是刚性与弹性需求<span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;">。</span></span></strong></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="text-indent: 0em;box-sizing: border-box;">它们的差异在于对住房的紧迫度和必要性,不是总价支付力,如果不紧迫、必要性不高,过去拿来买房的钱,就很容易会拿去存银行、或者做其他投资配置,过程中退房的概率也更高。</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">刚性需求才是一个城市基本盘</span></strong>,具体可以延展出以下刚性需求:</section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-indent: 0em;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 16px;">3-12岁儿童教育问题</section></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-indent: 0em;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 16px;">&gt;1.5小时上班通勤问题</section></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-indent: 0em;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 16px;">夜晚&gt;80分贝噪音问题</section></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-indent: 0em;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 16px;">没有可以慢跑的社区园林问题</section></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-indent: 0em;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 16px;">空气环境不佳的问题</section></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-indent: 0em;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 16px;">看不见蓝天白云的问题</section></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-indent: 0em;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 16px;">10分钟去不了商场逛街的问题</section></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-indent: 0em;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 16px;">10分钟去不了地铁站的问题等等</section></li></ul></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;">最近还有人开玩笑的&gt;10分钟的核酸路程问题,如果小于5分钟,可以成为一个溢价因子。</section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;"><strong style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;box-sizing: border-box;">2022年10月10城二手房关注量情况:</strong><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.3946557" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwXr5LSyVGiaHwnG3Y7ZZMZyfZXryjpYd98LfKOvdDiaNKbTdgvAbrLKr3TPVa3p8QgA3z0gZl2gmMg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="973" style="text-align: center;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">沈阳</span></strong>相对人均挂牌量不多,且关注量很少,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">每套房关注量仅7.7人</span></strong>,可以理解为<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">“无人问津”“房多客少”</span></strong>是个常态情景,佛山、重庆也不太乐观,挂牌多、关注少。</section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;text-align: center;justify-content: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 19px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);width: 1.8em;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;font-size: 22px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">3</strong></p></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: center;border-bottom: 0px solid rgb(62, 62, 62);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;margin-right: 20px;margin-left: 20px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 22px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">哪个城市</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 22px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">更容易出手?</strong></span></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 73px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">”</p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">这个需要定义什么叫“容易出手”?经过一些研究和讨论,我们是这么定义的:</section><section style="text-indent: 0em;text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">二手房出手难易度=</span></strong></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">成交率*折扣率*成交周期</span></strong></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;">年度成交率:2022年成交占2022年10月挂牌总套数</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;">折扣率:成交价与挂牌价差值比例</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">成交率越高、折扣率越低、成交周期越短,说明越容易出手</span></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">。</span></strong></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;"><strong style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;box-sizing: border-box;">2022年10月10城二手房成交量情况:</strong><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.3592593" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwXr5LSyVGiaHwnG3Y7ZZMZyym6CUcMJ9sv1PGRAC054ucmxQJ26UJo0rsibhYWVSro4vOKWiamt807w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="text-align: center;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">为了便于比较,我们将平均难度设置为1.0,可以看到<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">广州相对来说容易出手0.29</span></strong>,沈阳出手难度系数高1.93。</section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">具体到4个比较难出手的城市,会有些差异:</section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-indent: 0em;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 16px;">沈阳:<span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;">需要降价11%,且成交需要平均等待7个月;</span></section></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-indent: 0em;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 16px;">杭州:<span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;">需要降价13%,或许是受到新房的冲击,不降价就很难出手;</span></section></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-indent: 0em;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 16px;">佛山/南京:<span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;">成交率低,挂牌100套,今年才成交7套左右,观望/博弈情绪明显。</span></section></li></ul></section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">说到成交,我们还可以看下套均面积的情况,我们可以用<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">成交-挂牌</span></strong>来看。<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">哪些城市的大房子好卖?哪些城市小房子好卖?</strong></span></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;">或许是因为疫情的影响,结果呈现出惊人的一致性:<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">供给都大了,需求要小的</span></strong>。</section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;"><strong style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;">2022年10月10城二手房</strong><strong style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;">套均成交面积-挂牌面积情况:</strong><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.4351852" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwXr5LSyVGiaHwnG3Y7ZZMZyudTvNoKicKibW7pk0tqmtuYPdP46yGSFt9rqV3VJmxW0HaXpS1w1MCbA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="text-align: center;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">以佛山为例,平均供给面积达到113平,但实际成交面积近104平,整整少了9.4平米。</section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">一方面</strong>可能是收入下降,更加追求务实,降低消费预期的体现;</section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">另一方面</strong>也可以说过去佛山市场面积普遍偏大,跟现在的需求有些不匹配。</section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">说到这里,可能很多人还是比较关注眼下不同城市二手房的真实成交情况,我们可以关注下变化趋势。</section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;text-align: center;justify-content: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 19px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);width: 1.8em;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;font-size: 22px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">4</strong></p></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: center;border-bottom: 0px solid rgb(62, 62, 62);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;margin-right: 20px;margin-left: 20px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 22px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">哪些城市</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 22px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">有回暖?</strong></span></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 73px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">”</p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">说到回暖,这个是跟自身比较的视角,从不好到一般也是一种回暖的体现,一直不太好再变化的角度叫平稳。同样,我们对回暖有个定义:</section><section style="text-indent: 0em;text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">回暖=量或价在边际上的改善</span></strong></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;">具体可以分3个时间维度来看:<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">年度、季度、月度</span></strong>,因为月度时间太短不足以反应趋势,我们重点来看看年度+季度的整体变化情况。</section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;"><strong style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;box-sizing: border-box;">2022年10个城市二手房量的变化情况:</strong><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.4425926" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwXr5LSyVGiaHwnG3Y7ZZMZyeicbUZbhTedxZOWEavIMYNQ4AmphRiayAPMdrh2rBzrpe2zljyxas50A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="text-align: center;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">在成交规模上,可以看到<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">苏州、沈阳呈现出止跌的趋势</span></strong>,广州、重庆、大连还处于探底的阶段。</section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">很多人看到沈阳觉得不对,到这里需要综合来看。</section><section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">以沈阳和苏州为例:</section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;">沈阳:</span></strong>抛盘很大、关注很少、成交很难、趋势企稳,探底特征;</section></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">苏州:</strong></span>抛盘中等、关注偏少、成交偏难、趋势企稳,筑底特征。</section></li></ul></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">回归到行业,总量时代已经过去,难以回到同步相上而行,我们需要回归到结构中看矛盾,对应不同的机会与场景。</section><section style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;">具体到二手房的抛售,我们重点不是关注成交套数这个结果因子,而是洞察背后市场变化的原因:</section></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">成交回暖:是需求变多了?还是折扣给够了?</strong></section></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">成交冰冻:是有价无市?还是双方博弈?</strong></section></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">看多买少:是需求不足?还是供给无效?</strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"></strong></section></li></ul></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;line-height: 1.6em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 17.1px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">· 感谢观看 ·</span></strong></section><section data-role="outer" style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box 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100%;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 13px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">申请好友时,烦请备注公司+姓名<br data-filtered="filtered" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;line-height: 1.6em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-fileid="100022019" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIwS5riabx0rDcDAxFuaqlIxVDJsVSKBhKLPTncVXuIRkvSFbic1hOb0fyno5O5RenSYsxyYYcYJBCPg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;wx_co=1" data-type="jpeg" data-w="430" style="outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;display: initial;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible 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255);text-align: center;line-height: 1.6em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">- 小军怼城系列持续更新中&nbsp;-</span><br data-filtered="filtered" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 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hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">地产淘汰赛</a>&nbsp;|<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247506863&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=58074f66295ca91c36619c122db94caf&amp;chksm=9756a18ba021289dcc7b21ef86b0087cbb4cdb78b9c5140fb47cda8056df098f3b1b3a22a4f0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="客户细分第三维度" linktype="text" imgurl="" imgdata="null" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">客户细分第三维度</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247507155&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=5a6f90919ebe80b9f842386743803dc8&amp;chksm=9756a6f7a0212fe1870773f28512ec30ab372668fa08d6d637e59dd865cb9d522971dcebcb78&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="城研框架" linktype="text" imgurl="" imgdata="null" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">城研框架</a>&nbsp;|</span></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.6em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247507390&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b6f31ef51d82452033cf5c1fbeff299f&amp;chksm=9756a79aa0212e8c3168d9eb36a129b8febf5100bc5ac924d51cb9078a8fd9236ab6af9df2cc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="钱去哪了" linktype="text" imgurl="" imgdata="null" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">钱去哪了</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247507526&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=4c8ecf033bb9f0b25fc4b25908fe5cdb&amp;chksm=9756a462a0212d746cd15897bc6508ee666d5b07777215cba622358b16bb66b242df32d1544a&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="大湾区2022" linktype="text" imgurl="" imgdata="null" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">大湾区2022</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247507570&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=0307248409811ab6679c85284c6baa21&amp;chksm=9756a456a0212d407263136b6c0a272a5263c09361b329d935f0daee75217bd14497b9c2d256&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="产品逻辑" linktype="text" imgurl="" imgdata="null" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">产品逻辑</a>&nbsp;|</span></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.6em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247507694&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=29ba02de26847fdf996203fec3f33b15&amp;chksm=9756a4caa0212ddcedaa35ba4ec6a59fa095ffb2c6d8a4f6357507e4b3f01d5826326e01d9ff&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="永康房价上涨逻辑" linktype="text" imgurl="" imgdata="null" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">房价上涨逻辑</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247508509&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=400be1390222aa11fb0b283ec2766ef3&amp;chksm=9756d839a021512fd6876832b270aba309f7235f48564c6a93d573caf8f960e306c091d7ec39&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" 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center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.6em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247509549&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2835a398df32c6145a3256c8b3f0e448&amp;chksm=9756dc09a021551f311deb41e8acde75594792af37e27fbcc11418499c65a989fcc8975aa52c&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="济南楼市" linktype="text" imgurl="" imgdata="null" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">济南楼市</a>&nbsp;|</span><a target="_blank" 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