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聊聊地产淘汰赛后的故事

发布于 2021-11-24

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border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align: right;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-indent: 0em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 2em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;line-height: 2em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;&nbsp; /&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></span></em></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">CHAPEAU</span></strong></strong></span></em></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">/</span></strong></strong></span></em></span></strong></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">前言</span></strong></em></span></strong></strong></span></strong></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">自上篇“<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247505704&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=55a385c1af0e954703505f6322fd772f&amp;chksm=9756ad0ca021241aa7efd20d46cbbb8ec4ac15613d8884a0223267e6737e1ca50c3833c2ff4f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="聊聊房地产行业天花板问题" linktype="text" imgurl="" imgdata="null" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2">聊聊房地产行业天花板问题</a>”,很多读者阅读后,指出了2处明显错误和提出了一些疑问。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们先从2处低级错误出发,聊聊如何看待城市的指标数据以及其背后的联系。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">正如上次所说,我们要系统迭代工作方法,日复一日推进独立思考的能力,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>基于数据找到感知</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,本文</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">将以“数据”为出发点,聊聊房企大规模暴雷,进入淘汰赛后,我们个人或者企业可以做些什么,留在战场。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;font-size: 14px;">▼</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">01&nbsp;</span><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(117, 117, 118);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">@urasr</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;margin-bottom: 5px;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;white-space: normal;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 18px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">可怕的小错误</span></strong></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">一个是销售面积增长4%,销售价格增长3%,销售金额增长不是12%,而是7.12%,</span></em><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>计算错误</strong></span></em></span><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,感谢网友“白杨”同学批评指正;</span></em></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></em></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">另一个是“墨墨”同学要求:把单位再复习下,12万亿平方米,中国12亿人,每人买1万平方米。更正2014年,商品房销售面积12.06亿平方米,是亿平,不是万亿平,</span></em><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>单位错误</strong></span></em></span><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">。</span></em></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">看到这里,突然理解为何我司郑老板,年初要求“1个错别字1万块”,因为它体现了最基础的品质要求,为此我在这里公开表示郑重道歉。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">同时,沿用“墨墨同学”查错的思路,做一个延展,2014年商品房销售12.06亿平,就是0.86平/人。我们用商品住房的数据,系统的聊聊这个</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>数据背后的故事</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">02&nbsp;</span><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(117, 117, 118);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">@urasr</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 5px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 18px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">如何评判需求量</span></strong></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">笔者认为最合理体现需求总量的指标不是销售金额,也不是销售面积,而是随着城市化进程的</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>动态人均销售面积</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">的变化。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">因为销售金额同货币总量息息相关,即所谓大量资金流入的房地产结构性通胀,房地产是个金融化属性极强的事物;同时,在过去城市化的大浪潮中,销售面积需要同步考虑人口的增长和变化。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从全国数据看,常住人口年均销售面积从2000年的0.13平/人,增长到2020年的1.10平/人,可以看出从</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>2016年开始,总需求处于相对稳定的状态</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,但仍保持着上升。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><shape type="#_x0000_t75" filled="f"><imagedata title="image1"></imagedata></shape><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="294" data-ratio="0.5399858457183297" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKg8xUicVPQMuD8GLgt6LtA8xlwgKuETTia1KvtrIS2ibns8HdgZ9bohEaOA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1413" style="width: 546px;height: 295px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2020年新增1.10平/人意味着什么?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">意味着按照全国城镇人均住房面积39.8平/人算,需要持续开发36.18年,当然每个人都住上商品房是理想的情况。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">但具体对位到每个城市</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>研判销售量的时候,我们就有了基本的标尺</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。借用股市的逻辑,就是静态和动态研判两个方法。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">静态研判</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">:不考虑人口的变化(一般适合三四线人口总量相对稳定的城市),一个500万城市的合理销售容量就是550万平,那当它销售体量达到1.2倍(660万平)是基本可以确认是进入了需求牛市,当达到1.5倍时(825万平)就是需求过度释放,存在均值回归的可能及风险。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">相反,我们可以用同样的方法去研判熊市。从以下七普的数据可以看出,70%的城市人口都是保持相对稳定的状态,年均增长10万就能进入全国30强了,年均减少5万就进入全国倒数30强,整体来看,这个方法适用率还挺高。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="228" data-backw="277" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgT1qMjtLgFQl1iaAjM2IC0fYRte1OnawFtDzDCjaQQbtUEeBKVWUJfcg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1050.6721611721612" data-cropy1="0" data-cropy2="864.8131868131869" data-ratio="0.8238095238095238" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgibqwrnVmA0k9yQ3ueNGFQobDHWuA5OmJS1nYMXvJFb58o3sh0fqvicfQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1050" style="height: auto;white-space: normal;width: 100%;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="228" data-backw="267" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgT1qMjtLgFQl1iaAjM2IC0fYRte1OnawFtDzDCjaQQbtUEeBKVWUJfcg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="1050.6721611721612" data-cropx2="2063.4139194139193" data-cropy1="0" data-cropy2="864.8131868131869" data-ratio="0.8538993089832182" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgTqqPDQF7cPiaLbAXx1dG7k6mTvlicvrHyQxqibicRPcSMREmfMohUUTicyw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1013" style="height: auto;white-space: normal;width: 100%;" /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">动态研判</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">:考虑人口的变化,这个时候就会有2种情形,一种是增长的,一种是减少的。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">以六七普人口数据为例,既有深圳、成都、广州年均增长50-70万的高速增长城市,也有保定、绥化、四平年均减少10-20万人口的城市。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">通常存在着一些预期变好及变差衍生出来的各种需求,需要按照增长速度动态考虑需求的变化。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">下面复盘一个案例,系统说说这个动态研判。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">03&nbsp;</span><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(117, 117, 118);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">@urasr</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 5px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 18px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">一个系统的复盘</span></strong></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们按照城市的不同等级来研判它的合理需求容量,这个方法,禾略在2016-2018年用的比较多,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>按城市等级分类,找均值进行对标</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">简单贴几页进行示意,我们把2016年跟无锡LH的合作报告内容作为示意,因为已经过保密期,所以公开复个盘:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">第一步:找到无锡的对标城市</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,即当时的二线城市,佛山、杭州(它是随着阿里,近5年互联网经济的崛起而彪悍了,之前大家也说不出它有啥产业,市场也是持续低迷好几年)、青岛、宁波、大连等城市人均销售面积1.31平/人,因为无锡是个多中心城市,所以我们单独核算市区,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>2015年供求关系开始进入均衡状态</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="286" data-ratio="0.5263157894736842" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgKAX0rtiawF7ulP9Io1ONicOgoxpOdHIrZUhvVNxeickybtdIIRo51nicxg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2090" style="width: 546px;height: 287px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">第二步:基于这个标准,解答和回顾无锡的历史</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,为何2011-2015年那么惨的原因(不要看无锡现在这么猛,当年是全国房价持续上涨,但它5年跌了11%,无数个开发商掉坑),</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>超量供应573万平</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="294" data-backw="546" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="294" data-ratio="0.5384615384615384" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgRDm9X38QlYgQBdM7wJiaWlicdSOOb0KugX6bCibk4XibUZicV0bOut90nlA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2132" style="width: 546px;height: 294px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">第三步:结合土地财政,预判潜在供应的规模</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。当时无锡土地财政依赖度极低,只有7%,土地供应量已经持续2-3年大减,近3年土地市场</span><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">缺口达1018万平</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="271" data-ratio="0.4972118959107807" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgfIbg8UICUFemyR5HKRwLictpVdngfssveOSpzcCFIDbyo2hztnB0raA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2152" style="width: 546px;height: 271px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="280" data-ratio="0.5123222748815166" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgGmphb17OJnHRSJemU0ia5IgXdanjVvEjpLHaRoqd9ZXCWOVonfVWRtg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2110" style="width: 547px;height: 280px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">第四步:预判潜在的人口增长带来的需求变化</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">。这块有2个方法,一个是基于人口历史的增长趋势进行预判,另一个是基于政府的规划进行预判,通常真实的情况会接近2者的均值,因为一个代表现实、一个代表愿望。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br />结论上来说,就是</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>这个城市的机会,不是来自于人口的规模增长</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,为了验证无锡人口这个问题,我们特意去了无锡万象城,因为已经习惯看到它的成功,当时看到空铺率在30-40%就很惊讶,无锡的人口聚集力确实不强。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br />又想也许因为那是新区,所以我们特意跑到核心商圈三阳广场周边住了一晚,晚上7-8点去看了下人流,再次验证了这个观点。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="1" data-cropsely2="284" data-ratio="0.5187292555713608" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgVY1ftjx0OPMoItOVLJBlJIh3lBYECRTqUibsliaOW32MRhudCJhtdkWA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2109" style="width: 546px;height: 283px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">第五步,对未来的供求关系做预判</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。因为当时在售库存极高,在去库存的背景下,假设未来供应和需求的情况下,2018年开始进入均衡状态(1.0-1.2),2019年开始供不应求。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5216606498194946" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgRMtAJjNAWc24Qnf8rfVbiaEGsyvb8LXAUpamxlbsQ7l1M1wjnVsUs2g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="width:553.7417602539062px;height:291.739990234375px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">最后,我们用价格维度验证下实际发生的事情</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。应该说实际发生的情况,跟我们当时预判的稍有偏差,受苏州的2016年市场爆发及外溢投资需求的驱动,当然还有全国市场行情的影响,市场提前爆发,2017年便开始进入牛市状态,但它的2018-2020市场上涨的持续性还是在预期之中,看图可知,不同于无锡,苏州在2018-2020年持续的调整。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2014-2021年无锡市区价格同步涨幅变化</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="1" data-cropsely2="164" data-ratio="0.2990705303444505" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgFembdz7Zdyoib4yT6XGNpCvpA4BiahG0tHudRVDm07vuboHnXCFYjNicw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1829" style="width: 546px;height: 163px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2014-2021年苏州市区价格同步涨幅变化</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="162" data-ratio="0.2975295381310419" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKg0SlKx9gD7c9iaHHJiaGm3scXAIgoeicrlQiaYTcUaPEliaLN3M0E70JTHyw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1862" style="width: 546px;height: 162px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">对这个复盘,可以有3个小结:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">· </span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>识别两个变量</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">:城市的发展既有内力、也有外力,特别是价格的演变,应该统筹考虑,这点当时有所忽略;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">· </span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>找到一个方法</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">:我们可以找到方法,识别历史供求及预判潜在供求关系。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">· </span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>用好一个变化</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">:具体策略需结合预期,因为2016年预期极低,给无锡出的建议是积极关注;有些城市哪怕极度供不应求,比如深圳永远都是供不应求,关键看价格,热度预期高的时候,给出的策略也是谨慎。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">04&nbsp;</span><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(117, 117, 118);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">@urasr</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 5px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 18px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">一个有趣的规律</span></strong></span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">后来在此基础上,我们将典型的一二线城市2009-2017年的宏观数据进行聚类,分类10个类别,尝试用人均销售面积来反应城市的扩张速度,结合城市发展水平(三产比例),做了个矩阵。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">用此方法识别出一些城市发展的规律,将城市划分为5个类型:</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>潜力期-成长期-扩张期-升级期-成熟期</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们发现:随着城市的发展,城市的人均销售面积是先高后低</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,工业化初期-中期,随着财富的积累和人口的聚集,住房新增需求快速提升;而到了工业化中后期,住房新增需求反而相对稳定。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">一方面可能是城市供给影响,另一方面是强一线侧重于人口质量的提升,非规模,而不同类型的人住房需求的相当的。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="218" data-ratio="0.40119760479041916" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgiaIvmMEpTmkvUaDGwqcyfCicOIux3RJHe6U8KB3icOvwfzj2J5icLscXicA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2171" style="width: 546px;height: 219px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">接下来,我们再来聊聊留言反馈的几个疑问——</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">05&nbsp;</span><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(117, 117, 118);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">@urasr</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 18px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">关于流动性的问题</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;text-indent: 0em;">“Slash”同学反馈:地产是政策市,政策对市场的影响很大。这句话当然是对的,关于如何理解政策,在个人“小军怼城”系列文章里头有些解读、说明、预判,欢迎留言或复盘。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这次主要想增加一个视角,那就是</span><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">调控的核心路径是什么</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">笔者认为是控制流动性</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">在全球都疯狂“印钞”的背景下,不止中国,美国也是如此,而在某种程度上来说,中国控制得还是比美国好很多。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>过量的资金流入就会形成通胀</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,具体包括以下几个领域:房地产的泡沫、股市的估值、居民部门的CPI、企业部门的PPI等。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">美国的情况,简单说就是</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>从结构性通胀到全面通胀</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,新闻也经常都在报道:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 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data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgCHO6KV6xpuGpBREmzKjrVibSibotcuEbqXyWFLs62FViaWD6SicqO50n1A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1379" style="width: 547px;height: 130px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="353" data-ratio="0.6462793068297655" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgzNcB3ZFsbHVNWWQD1xYCVUCnfjh3yOXvwQOJ54XJjg50kSLsPwh2FQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="981" style="width: 546px;height: 353px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="210" data-ratio="0.385070214338507" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgzNicccqsxia3icgtenwF0E574UF7ibQCBECQc31sanefZetau8gIKkNwOA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1353" style="width: 546px;height: 210px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="273" data-ratio="0.5004694835680751" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKg1n1AgAibyg3hdsQu32xOWgegSyyiaXhlOvoWZgUgLew3zOibjrkEh3VfQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1065" style="width: 546px;height: 273px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">简单来说,几乎所有能够用价格来衡量的商品、投资品,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>都处于高通胀的状态</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,所以很多经济学家已经发出危险的警告,有可能引发系统性经济,当然笔者不是经济大师,不知道是不是真的会发生经济危机,但种种现象表明,美国无限量QE后有点危险,建议</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>节衣缩食,降低杠杆</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">以上已经发生的事实,重点是想表达流动性的重要性及其威力,资金像水又像蜜,流入到哪,哪就是估值泡沫化。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">那中国情况如何呢?为何目前房地产整体都这么惨?通过以上的案例,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>我们知道这不是供需的问题,而是系统性流动性的问题</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;">国家控制流动性核心方式是通过调节利率的高低</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">。正如全世界都非常关注美联储的加息和减息,简单的加息动作,就可以让土耳其、巴西政府发生债务危机。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5523465703971119" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgkopIWQIehfCOm1LIjHYBr4sqe99poicSBj8Suo23Cz4Dtcxl47vlJuQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="width:553.7417602539062px;height:309.4700012207031px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们可以直接看结论:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">· </span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>2019年5月开始,房地产的钱持续变少</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">;在房住不炒的大背景下,跟国家提出三道红线、银行房地产相关贷款、销售投资比等相关政策紧缩也是相符合,2020年1-2季度疫情期间保持相对平稳。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">· </span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>2020年5月开始,生产的钱快速变多</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,所以现在PPI一直处于相对高位的状态;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;text-indent: 0em;">而消费目前保持相对中性的状态,体现到指标上就是CPI还可以。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从宏观层面来说,这是个非常简单且清晰的路径指标,2019年5月已经开始出现拐点。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">回到现状,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>杠杆和规模莫名成为了行业共识</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,但</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>10%利息叠加10倍杠杆</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,玩过金融的人都知道这是什么概念,目前亏损概率极高的情况下,规模越大,亏的越多。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">用万科的话来说就是:要有质量的增长,有利润的规模,均好中加速;用我司老板的话来说就是:没有见过弯道超车、只见弯道翻车。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">所以,国家调控“去杠杆”肯定是为了这个行业好,这次目标就是对地产里的企业进行结构优化——地产不再是拿着钱来就能赚钱的行业,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>要有竞争力的企业<strong style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;white-space: normal;">才能生存</strong></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,要让低效企业出清,控制系统性风险。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">06&nbsp;</span><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(117, 117, 118);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">@urasr</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—</span></strong><strong style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 5px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 18px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">关于居民贷款的问题</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">“卞华”同学留言反馈:</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>缺少居民贷款数据,你得看一下居民贷款空间还有多少?</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们用贷款累计增速跟房价累计增速来解答这个问题,到底居民加杠杆水平如何。因为首付大部分是3成,少量二手房是5-7成,所以从比例角度来看,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>2-3倍增速比是合理的水平</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从历史数据来看,2012-2013年是轻度加杠杆的过程,2014年见底,2015-2018年持续加杠杆的过程,2017年达到5.15倍,2018年也达到4.81倍,“房住不炒”也就是在这种背景下提出来,直到2020年才恢复正常水平。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从这个角度看,金融端口的“房住不炒”,基本得到全面有效控制,但对比2014-2015年仍还没有触底,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>2022年大概率是个探底的过程</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="217" data-backw="299" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgUVaMbkU1iccQy1JyBxy4OHkia60camKtTLTiaibN0R1eaGL2uSn2y9dYCg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="64.94505494505495" data-cropx2="1143.7545787545787" data-cropy1="230.91575091575092" data-cropy2="1013.8644688644689" data-ratio="0.7256719184430028" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKghlr2lylXtmgiaKZ56CAQZuUqf6UnlwzQQOPZHPhiakP7P0B16cc8nAYA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1079" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="211" data-backw="201" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgUVaMbkU1iccQy1JyBxy4OHkia60camKtTLTiaibN0R1eaGL2uSn2y9dYCg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="1140.14652014652" data-cropx2="1865.3663003663005" data-cropy1="234.52380952380952" data-cropy2="995.8241758241759" data-ratio="1.049655172413793" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKg2o8IOHXEbkVBctwT9jyIxBicic4ibYOqzLR0yXY54gHZDo6r5kSbCGMBA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="725" style="height: auto;white-space: normal;width: 100%;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">07&nbsp;</span><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(117, 117, 118);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">@urasr</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 5px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 18px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">系统认知“暴雷后时代”<br /></span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">第一个非常有意思的数据是,今年呈现出“</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>两端走弱,中间变强</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">”的趋势,即所谓的腰部企业。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">并不是大而不强,大就是强,很多房企过去的成功来自胆量,即杠杆越高,规模越大,而非能力;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从美国经验来看,发展到一定阶段,行业集中度就维持在一个区间内震荡,底部是20%,顶部是30%,2019年中国行业集中度达30%,与美国次贷危机前相当,所以</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>2019年可能为行业集中度高点</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="212" data-backw="329" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgwOzvD2T7f2bYmsWJuIheXQuHOTIicGlq9J7t7ftCHezsFXANUCM6Rmg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1176.2051282051282" data-cropy1="0" data-cropy2="761.4945054945055" data-ratio="0.6454081632653061" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgSerZmwtdTuF5O07PGy9o6iamWI7O0WViaSiawCNBiatbnpXkXpupu3uaAg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1176" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="190" data-backw="217" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgwOzvD2T7f2bYmsWJuIheXQuHOTIicGlq9J7t7ftCHezsFXANUCM6Rmg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="1176.2051282051282" data-cropx2="1952" data-cropy1="64.35164835164835" data-cropy2="747.1941391941391" data-ratio="0.8775773195876289" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgjjJNqlPmlV5Zias0IWiaIfzicg9QQUyzgSsia1S7zI5PqicIib9nPzgLjqtA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="776" style="height: auto;white-space: normal;width: 100%;" /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">借用下G50某位董事长的观点,从企业视角,描述过去-未来的变化,笔者斗胆调整了几句:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">· 过去是冲刺赛,谁更快谁更好</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">· 未来是淘汰赛,谁专业就更好</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.4566787003610108" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKgxjOqCkUakibu2FgzyiaTmbng6WrYmMNBiabBkIJDNx46IXibHxRUAG5usw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="width:553.739990234375px;height:253.33999633789062px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">至于什么是专业?也是笔者一直思考的问题。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">笔者的答案是</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>基于数据、找到工具</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">(方法论并持续迭代)、</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>理性判断、做出选择</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">那淘汰赛之后呢?企业将何去何从?</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">从“春秋”到“战国”,如果说“春秋时代”比的是速度和杠杆,那“战国时代”比的是每个玩家的品牌战略、内部管理、商业模式,仍大有可为。</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">行业的发展,在高增长周期宛如“春秋”时代,春秋的特征是小国林立,当时被春秋五霸灭掉的小国就有上百个,霸主轮流做;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">到了行业平稳周期,类同“战国”时代,七雄才显现,势力范围才逐渐稳固,往往更容易获得超额收益。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">类同之前的手机、白酒、家电等都出现过类似的情形,2021年的房地产业,也呈现出了这个特点。&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们简单对标几个成熟行业,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>即行业规模不增长后,发生了什么</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="339" data-ratio="0.6216505894962486" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKg2rkfJBl4FGO4LECoc2RLOkAzB7ea1qOpibibU4cJFlZefzF8ZMzmkvbQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="933" style="width: 546px;height: 339px;"></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">“小米、华为、oppo、vivo”</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>四大国产手机品牌地位始于2018年</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,而“锤子”“魅族”“一加”“中兴”“金立”“联想”等手机基本销声匿迹。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="405" data-ratio="0.7416576964477933" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIygMF16lebm8AgQBECOqvKg8Am5fKEV1zYqCrsNEd2sUDD41K1VuuYgRCHoMHQYME0DoSTobJrbxQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="929" style="width: 546px;height: 405px;"></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">“茅台”“五粮液”等</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>白酒品牌的超额收益,并不是来自于行业的高增长周期,而是2017年稳定周期,家电行业“格力”“美的”也是类同。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">最后笔者想用几句话来,描述未来地产3-5年的一个大趋势:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">· 房地产是个日不落行业,2021-2022年是从“春秋”到“战国”;</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">· “春秋”时代,小国林立,增收不增利,雷声大雨点小;</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">· “战国”时代,往往更容易获得超额收益;</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">· “活下去”,需要跟对组织、做好专业、回归客户。</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">具体“活下去”的方法路径,用大白话来说,就是——</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>能够上天-多看书,识别规律;</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>可以下地-多跑盘,洞察客户;</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>积极思考-多融合,个性策略。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;line-height: 1.75em;text-indent: 0em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 17.1px;color: rgb(68, 114, 196);font-size: 15px;font-family: 华文楷体;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">· 感谢观看 ·</span></span></strong></section><section data-role="outer" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: 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