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聊聊大湾区2022年的一些可能

发布于 2022-02-25

<p style="font-family: 0 0 0;text-align: center;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="121" data-backw="370" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="390" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="575" data-ratio="1.5197740112994351" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVOaA7FAucfGlibkoEcfqDjjlI7IymK65uUkxYZTeb3HrX4X4enfbMbk1VDeR2ib2q7IwGOTuSq0xA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="354" style="font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);text-indent: 36px;visibility: visible !important;width: 160px !important;" />&nbsp;</span></strong><br /></p><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;text-align: center;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></p><p style="text-align: center;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family:微软雅黑;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: center;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><em><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 18px;"><strong>「 搞清市场背后的驱动机制 」</strong></span></em></p><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;text-align: center;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;text-align: center;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><br /></p><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">回顾2021年,在调控政策持续加码背景下,全国市场整体走入低谷期。那么聚焦到大湾区,这个曾经被投资客热衷的地区</span><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">,</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">到底市场情况怎么样了?更重要的是未来市场走势会</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">如何?</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-style: italic;caret-color: rgb(11, 42, 83);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></span></strong></span></section><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;</span></strong></p><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-style: italic;caret-color: rgb(11, 42, 83);color: rgb(11, 42, 83);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;text-align: center;font-size: 24px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">01</span><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 20px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-style: italic;caret-color: rgb(11, 42, 83);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">大湾区的2021年</span></span></strong></p><p style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;widows: 1;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(127, 127, 127);color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 13px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;text-align: center;widows: 1;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">一</span></strong></span></strong></p><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">从一手成交金额同比涨幅来看,2021年</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">珠海上涨54.2%、深圳上涨48.0%、广州上涨26.2%</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">,可见深圳、广州这两大需求核心容量依然有支撑,出乎意料的是珠海竟逆市上涨</span>54.2%,成为了黑马。</span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"><br /></span></span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">中山、佛山、江门、肇庆相对均衡,而</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">东莞、惠州</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">成交湾区跌幅最大,分别</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">下跌27%与26%</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">。</span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"><br /></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5275707898658718" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxVuvRrJP3Vmzx18ibBct7MIduXWhzQDtfMDuPdwiavL7bM2EwHbiaOj5c7XibHyXf12gXuVxyTgDicB1w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1342" style="" /></p><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;text-align: center;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">整体湾区市场分化明显,主要分为三大梯队:</span></p><p style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">①&nbsp;广州、深圳这些容量需求有强支撑的城市涨幅最大;</span></p><p style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">②&nbsp;中山、佛山等需求支撑较弱的城市,与上年基本持平;</span></p><p style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">③&nbsp;东莞、惠州这两个位于深圳周边,且炒房客居多的城市则大幅下滑。</span></p><section style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;white-space: normal;margin-left: 24px;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">总的来看,</span>2021年大湾区整体市场在调控的大背景下</span></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">降温回落,且分化加剧,非常好印证了“房住不炒”的基本政策思路</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">。</span></span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><br /></span></span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">同时由深圳、广州可以看出,真正决定市场容量的因素是城市价值的本身。</span></span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">很多人说,当下是市场寒冬,“投资不重要,核心是销售”,我想对于市场趋势的预判,不仅作用于投资,也同样适用于销售,对于需求不足、预期转弱的城市,我们需要果断出货,避免楼盘之间深度内卷;对于需求旺盛、触底反弹的城市,我们需要的是耐心等待,不要倒在黎明前。</span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">而且在市场下行周期,分化往往更加严重,选城即选股的能力更加重要,而不是牛市思维里的同进同退、赚多赚少的问题,它是大佬说的“生与死”的问题。</span></section><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;</span></p><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">那么由此就可以延伸出另一个关键问题,</span></span><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">2022年大湾区城市的市场潜力孰强孰弱?</span></strong></span></em></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li style="font-size: 14px;"><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 14px;">广州深圳这些核心城市是否依然值得投资?</span></section></li><li style="font-size: 14px;"><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 14px;">中山、佛山等这些城市能否弯道超车?</span></section></li><li style="font-size: 14px;"><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 14px;">惠州、东莞的这些城市是否到达底部?</span></section><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><br /></p></li></ul><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">需要说明的是,我们想预判的变化趋势,而不是绝对房价或者容量的高低,即站在当下时间点(数据维度为2021年)基础上,未来1-2年(2022-2023年)的大概率走势如何?这是我们真正的收益或者风险来源。</span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;</span></section><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;text-align: center;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-style: italic;caret-color: rgb(11, 42, 83);color: rgb(11, 42, 83);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;font-size: 24px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">02</span><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-style: italic;caret-color: rgb(11, 42, 83);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">一种定义未来可能的方法</span></span></strong></p><p style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(127, 127, 127);color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 13px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;text-align: center;widows: 1;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">一</span></p><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;font-family: 微软雅黑;">我们认为:“房住不炒”的本质是让</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">房价的涨幅同收入增长同步、供给的涨幅同需求增长同步</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;font-family: 微软雅黑;">。当反正错位时,意味着机会和风险的来临,我们不能准确判断它来临的时刻,但不同步的收益或风险,终将释放出来,或许是通过政策的方式解决。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;font-size: 14px;">于是,为了研判未来一年城市的市场容量潜力,我们提供了以下模型:</span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.4560117302052786" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxVuvRrJP3Vmzx18ibBct7MIiaONIkOz6SwaEibg4VRlSiarLAQyticBHaVRno0Xbt8HJZODo0kmzFibvzQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1364" style="" /></p><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;text-align: center;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><br /></p><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">简单解释一下这个模型的逻辑,</span></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">未来的容量潜力由城市量与价两个角度</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">综合研判</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">,分别对应图中的规模潜力与价格潜力。落到内部来说,</span></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">规模潜力由供求关系决定,而价格潜力由购买力与价格决定</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">。</span></span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">举个例子会更清晰,若城市常年市场供不应求,意味着这个城市潜在的需求规模巨大,现在的供应远远不能满足,也就是规模潜力强。同理,假设这个城市同时人民的购买力每年持续10%的增长,而房价增长缓慢或者停滞,那就意味着这个城市中居民的财富较多,市场价格的增长潜力强。具体的模型细节这里就不多赘述。</span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">下文从广州和东莞两个案例出发给大家解释这个模型的应用。</span></section><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;text-align: center;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-style: italic;caret-color: rgb(11, 42, 83);color: rgb(11, 42, 83);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;text-align: center;font-size: 24px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">03</span><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-style: italic;caret-color: rgb(11, 42, 83);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">两个案例说明</span></span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;widows: 1;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(127, 127, 127);color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 13px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">一</span></strong></span></strong></p><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">本文研究选取的是大湾区9城为样本,从两个角度进行:</span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1.年度</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">的城市横向比较,类似股票的选择,更多侧重的是基本面的研判;</span></span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2.月度</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">的市场周期研判,也就是择时的视角,主要是侧重市场面的波动。</span></span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></section><section style="margin-left: 24px;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></section><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-align: center;line-height: 3em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">案例一:广州</span></strong></span></p><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从供求关系上看,</span></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">2018-2020年广州连续3年都处于供不应求的周</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">期</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">。在这段时间内,累积了很多未满足的需求,</span></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">整体的规模潜力强</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">。</span></span></span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><br /></span></span></span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">究其原因,从表格的数据可以看到,自</span>2018<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">年开始,广州的需求指数均值倍数一直大于</span>1.2,持续跑赢大市,</span></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">累计的需求支撑超强</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">,同时供给端持续与大市持平。</span></span></span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><br /></span></span></span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从</span>2021年开始,供应大幅提升,规模潜力才有所下降。</span></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.9198606271777003" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxVuvRrJP3Vmzx18ibBct7MIP72BZQk7jElb7nhdnYtum2DicYpLOx6Y8jmPB8NTeO9VcCD83hmD5Tw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1148" style="width: 354px;height: 325px;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7955326460481099" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxVuvRrJP3Vmzx18ibBct7MILyqGPMCWBbHGIEpRSTSTciczTKrn3QxiclY6yictx0ictSw5x3tQBKBYxg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1164" style="width: 354px;height: 282px;" /></p><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;text-align: center;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;</span><br /></p><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;text-align: center;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;</span></p><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从市场购买力上看,</span></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">2018-2020年居民支付力的增速持续大于价格的增速</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">,居民潜在的市场购买力水平有提升,市场价格上升有支撑。但由于</span></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">广州的市场价格高,购买力的驱动依旧有限</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">。</span></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.9217687074829932" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxVuvRrJP3Vmzx18ibBct7MItq72iaIP6woo1mbP74dibjpPj0CgZU8GX5uB1CDKj5YZZtQXzicY0nIEg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1176" style="width: 349px;height: 322px;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7250859106529209" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxVuvRrJP3Vmzx18ibBct7MILSAUbkAXm1iapABnYUElELmaZBiaUF3mnS6autKmsVbHqoWMkSOMkW0g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1164" style="width: 362px;height: auto;" /></p><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;text-align: center;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;</span></p><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">综合量价潜力,我们可以根据模型给出2022年市场潜力的预判。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">(ps:同时为了更加符合大数法则,最终的潜力预判采用了三年累计的统计方法,即2022年的潜力=2019-2021年潜力的累计)</span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">整体上广州容量潜力排名大湾区第2名,属于潜力强梯队。</span></strong></span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从量价结构来看,广州</span></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">量强价</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">弱</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">,规模潜力1.41<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">倍,在大湾区城市中排名第</span>1。而由于价格持续的增长,价格潜力持续跑输大市。</span></span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><br /></span></span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">由此可见</span></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">广州市场容量的增长主要由规模强支撑</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">。结合容量潜力,预判</span>2022<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">年市场容量增长</span>11.6%。</span></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6946688206785138" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxVuvRrJP3Vmzx18ibBct7MIlHBzBSqUcMzgRZK0ztQRh1OO6asoNXjNn8P9HNibYhzFyeiaeetY9G2g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1238" style="width: 382px;height: 265px;" /></p><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;text-align: center;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;</span></p><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">最后从月度波动来看,广州目前处于市场信心的</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">高位回落后期,预计2022年6月到达底部</span></strong></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.36015625" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxVuvRrJP3Vmzx18ibBct7MIe2O4mk6Z3UBxLHlicfBHUytaia33MQdNMlVVnTeQaOcuMcZ2icYVU6YnA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2560" style="width: 432px;height: 156px;" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.634493670886076" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxVuvRrJP3Vmzx18ibBct7MIBia80rX3DTtTw0LGUho9TA7wb7SV38yrzQiaMiaYBf7oiad2aDY47bt6vg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1264" style="width: 421px;height: 267px;" /></p><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;text-align: center;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;</span></p><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">总结一下广州的预判</span><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span></span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">中长期年度趋势来看,2022年量强价弱,容量潜力2名,属于潜力强梯队,预判容量增长11.6%;短期月度波动来看,处于高位回落的后期阶段,预计预计2022年6月到达市场信心的底部</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">。</span></span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><p style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-align: center;line-height: 3em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">案例二:东莞</span></strong></span></p><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">由于前面案例已经相当详细,这个城市就简单展示结论。</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><li style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><section style="line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">整体上看,从2020年开始市场容量潜力持续下降。</span></section></li><li style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><section style="line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">从量价结构上看,</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">2020</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">年开始规模与价格的潜力均持续走低,其中规模潜力排名第</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">7,需求支撑弱,价格潜力排名第8,购买力支撑弱。</span></section></li><li style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><section style="line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: 微软雅黑;">总体来看,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">东莞2022年量价齐弱,容量潜力8名,属于潜力弱梯队</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: 微软雅黑;">。</span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 28px;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.4265625" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxVuvRrJP3Vmzx18ibBct7MIW4Hxu1GYoWzjeD3S8o9V4abrbBMy8IombbsDwfBV8SVVBxCbl6jj7g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2560" style="" /></p><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><br /></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: 微软雅黑;">从月度波动来看,目前东莞处于</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">持续下探筑底阶段,预计2022年4月信心底部回升</span></strong></span><strong style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">。</span></strong></p></li></ul><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.4546875" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxVuvRrJP3Vmzx18ibBct7MIgpBAHXvaJQGBwRn1oiaUql7KeOA9LhaFyLDGshBLUiaDAtPFJUlk3f6w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2560" style="" /></p><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;text-align: center;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;text-align: center;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-style: italic;caret-color: rgb(11, 42, 83);color: rgb(11, 42, 83);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;text-align: center;font-size: 24px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">04</span><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-style: italic;caret-color: rgb(11, 42, 83);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">大湾区的2022年</span></span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;widows: 1;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(127, 127, 127);color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 13px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">一</span></strong></span></strong></p><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">最终,我们从整体规模趋势、量价结构趋势、月度波动趋势,给出大湾区9个城市市场的预判:</span></section><section style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">1. &nbsp;容量潜力比较</span></strong></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><li style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><p style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">珠海、广州、惠州、中山</span></strong></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 14px;">4城走强;</span></p></li><li><p><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">佛山、江门</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">维持稳定;</span></p></li><li><p><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">深圳、东莞、肇庆</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">3城持续趋弱。</span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 28px;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1.101388888888889" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxVuvRrJP3Vmzx18ibBct7MItFJ9klswJ7rFc8wGNIrEA02TQ4s29sBYsIpP7fCr8UfJdGqsjFLSaQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1440" style="width: 265px;height: 292px;" /></p><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;</span></strong><br /></p><section><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">2. &nbsp;量价结构趋势</span></strong></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">珠海、惠州</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">量强价强;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">广州、中山</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">量强价弱;</span></p></li><li><p><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">江门、佛山</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">量中价强</span></p></li><li><p><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">肇庆、深圳、东莞</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">量持续走弱,价格潜力肇庆&gt;深圳&gt;东莞。</span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 28px;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1.3104166666666666" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxVuvRrJP3Vmzx18ibBct7MIckD83pY5IR2EsssZ2LGs6hnzp356hHaibK88yibpHSTMpe2UxAhJnNYA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1440" style="width: 260px;height: 341px;" /></p><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;</span></strong><br /></p><section><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">3. &nbsp;月度周期波动</span></strong></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">广州、惠州、江门、中山</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">目前均处于高位回落阶段,其中广州持续探底,惠州、江门5月后开始冲高,中山7月底部回升;</span></p></li><li><p><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">东莞、珠海</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">目前均处于下探筑底阶段,4月关注东莞,11月关注珠海;</span></p></li><li><p><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">深圳、佛山、肇庆</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">目前均处于市场信心上升周期,其中需警惕9月肇庆信心高位回落。</span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 28px;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></section><p style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;</span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1.3104166666666666" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxVuvRrJP3Vmzx18ibBct7MIGaAea4RZnKjdezOylkxJ3yoDEHnFa6fM7uz8XISTUKL1P1kXZERdZQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1440" style="text-align: center;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 17px;width: 265px;height: 347px;" /><span style="text-align: center;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 17px;"></span></p><p style="font-family: 0 0 0;text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;"><br /></p><section style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-align: start;white-space: normal;margin-left: 0px;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">综合来说,大湾区9城中, 2022年珠海、广州、惠州、中山更值得关注</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">。其中</span></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">珠海、惠州</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">是量价双因子驱动,珠海上半年在去年相对强势的基础上可能回落,</span>11<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">月开始触底反弹;惠州有望在经历去年的寒冬后,</span>5月开始回暖;而</span></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">广州、中山</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">主要是规模驱动,即购买力相对有限,但潜在需求量还不错;月度周期上,广州在去年冲高之后,今年仍将以回调为主;中山则有望在</span>7月份开始回暖。</span></span></section><section style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-align: start;white-space: normal;margin-left: 0px;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><br /></span></strong></span></section><section style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-align: start;white-space: normal;margin-left: 0px;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">最后,分享一段瑞·达利欧新书的一句话:要想预测和应对前所未有的情况,我必须尽可能多地研究类似的历史案例,搞清这些案例背后的驱动机制</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">。</span></strong></span></section><section style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-align: start;white-space: normal;margin-left: 0px;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><br /></span></span></section><section style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-align: start;white-space: normal;margin-left: 0px;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">本文的量价模型就是试图去寻找这个市场背后的驱动机制,而不是趋势主义,习以为常的认为过去的发生即是未来,当一个时代结束的时候,</span></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 24px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">从一个极端到另一个极端的变化是常态,而不是例外</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">。</span></strong></span></section><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-indent: 47px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-indent: 47px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="line-height: 17.100000381469727px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong>撰写:官明谦 &nbsp;指导:钟小军 &nbsp;编辑:顺萍</strong></span></p><p><br /></p><section data-role="outer" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="85791" data-width="90%" style="margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 500.4px;flex: 0 0 90%;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 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0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">关注分享</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;caret-color: red;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">FOLLOW US &amp; SHARE ON MOMENTS</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="98910" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;flex-flow: row nowrap;display: flex;word-break: break-all;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">官网</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">微博</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">视频号</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">知乎</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">b站</span></p></section></section></section></section></section><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: 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0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">感谢你的每一个分享 | 点赞 | 在看</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word 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