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聊聊对房地产调控的理解

发布于 2021-07-28

<section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" data-mpa-powered-by="yiban.io"><section><section><section><section><section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-backh="121" data-backw="370" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="390" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="575" data-ratio="1.5197740112994351" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVOaA7FAucfGlibkoEcfqDjjlI7IymK65uUkxYZTeb3HrX4X4enfbMbk1VDeR2ib2q7IwGOTuSq0xA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="354" style="height: 383px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;text-align: center;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);text-indent: 36px;width: 252px;" /></section></section></section></section></section></section><section><section><section><section><section><section><section><section><section><section><section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-size: 10px;">- 前言&nbsp;-</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">上周末,上海出台提高贷款利率,绍兴发布二手房参考价机制,本文就调控这个话题聊聊自己的一些看法。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">近年来各种房地产调控政策琳琅满目,前几年有各种形式的三限 “限价、限购、限贷”,今年“两集中”“指导价”横空出世,呈现出一种“<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>房地产调控日常化</strong></span>”现象。<br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们究竟如何看待这一系列调控政策?对未来的趋势可以做出哪些预判?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">人到中年,开始莫名操心国家大事,最近有些新的视角和看法,同大家一起说说。因本人学识有限,以下话题有些宏大,表达如有错误或不准确的地方,敬请留言批评指正。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 44px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="0.5909090909090909" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/NXM1uH7qTx6KCT7pvwklArTCibFSLCuVaSlz5te5V2QicRIbbBDTg1LSg79HhEMwwDwbgFlCIKbTF69TINgyslSg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="88" style="display: block;" /></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>财富及经济背后运行逻辑</strong></span><br mpa-from-tpl="t" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们知道,房价大涨背后都是“资金大规模流入”的一种现象,所以我尝试站在全球资金流动的视角,<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>重新理解财富及经济背后的运行逻辑</strong></span>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从自制的一张图开始说起:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6105424769703173" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyfc97KftB2G37cicK3OeA7dibnGZibIrEKibCalIPryTXOJzSBhJlhVZ39UMdib1uOopX2lgibwkibt5Qaw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1954" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">中国房地产背后,中国经济的底层运行逻辑,是在美元货币全球化体系下,中国承担大规模生产的职能,有了贸易顺差,在结汇制度的约束下,需发行等量的人民币,<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>人民币超发是国际分工货币体系下的必然产物</strong></span>。</span></section><section data-role="paragraph"><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">接下来就是大家比较熟悉的地产经济了,背后是地方财政需求、基础建设兑现、银行信贷支持等体系下的运作产物,<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>银行信贷是加速资产化+金融化的过程,基建建设是土地价值提升的关键,地方财政是两者的有效衔接。</strong></span></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">于此,在这个逻辑体系下,出现了长达20年的地产通胀及工业品通缩,即通常我们所说的实体经济难,大量的资金流入房地产开发,包括实业企业开发房地产的案例举不胜举,最近几年比较盛行的是中小企业者直接购入大量房产,甚至用经营贷款买入资产等。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">在这种情形下,如果政府不干预,就会形成</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>“富人躺赢+中产内卷+穷人躺平”的财富终局</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,欧美国家已经验证了这个规律,在此就不多阐述。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 578px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 578px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="width: 44px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;"><img data-ratio="0.5909090909090909" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/NXM1uH7qTx6KCT7pvwklArTCibFSLCuVaSlz5te5V2QicRIbbBDTg1LSg79HhEMwwDwbgFlCIKbTF69TINgyslSg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="88" style="display: block;" /></section></section></section></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>为什么进行房地产调控</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">说到这里,本文的主题出现了,为什么要进行房地产调控?而且越来越频繁,很多人会说,这都是假象,越调控房价越高。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">如果我们抛开个体看全局,它已经发挥了很大的作用,可以横向对标美股,在货币超发作为承接池的导向下,系统估值的提高惊人。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">具体从国家统计局房价同比涨幅来看,3年一个大调整的周期趋势非常明显,且幅度呈现扩大趋势。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">本次经历过2016年房价大涨之后,此轮涨幅整体收缩不少,调控效果还不错,平均水平来看,各能级城市同比指数都在105-110之间,全国过去一年平均涨幅7.7%也是基本同GDP增长同步。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6590709903593339" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyvbicpU1CaphAPr6wDsEEIRRq2ncy8tz6G2Mltkdj8YvN0OEE0tAM76qkK4fIBeiaMgrx5jCHrMOuw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1141" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5563575791227096" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyvbicpU1CaphAPr6wDsEEIRaMDwq4eNDlH28kdUbgUoicycdF9FYyjXBh5nFJK8ibUvmYvQXOwQpwkQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1801" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2020年,我国“脱贫攻坚”“全面小康”实现了历史性的胜利,背后是转移支付等一系列政策的支持,这条线是针对穷人的扶持路径;格局放大,与之对应的是针对富人的资产管理。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们知道中国人70%的财富都是房地产,于此调控目的显而易见,一方面是为了</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>防止贫富差距拉大</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,违背了共同富裕的社会主义执政逻辑。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">前段时间,浙江已经全域战略定位为共同富裕示范区,同时</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>贫富差距扩大不利于有效扩大内需</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,因为富人的消费边际递减效益会导致内需的下降,在贸易战的大背景下,内需显得极其重要,双循环也是在这个背景下提出的。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">另一方面是抑制房价形成资产泡沫,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">避免系统性金融危机的发生</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">,隔壁的日本、东南亚、香港,以及远方的南美巴西、阿根廷都有类似一蹶不振的惨痛经历。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">以上说的是内循环逻辑,站在这个角度去理解</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>针对富人的房地产调控原因</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">就会更清晰,为什么强调针对富人?因为核心“房住不炒”,打压的是炒,能炒房的大多属于富人阶层。</span></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 578px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 578px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="width: 44px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;"><img data-ratio="0.5909090909090909" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/NXM1uH7qTx6KCT7pvwklArTCibFSLCuVaSlz5te5V2QicRIbbBDTg1LSg79HhEMwwDwbgFlCIKbTF69TINgyslSg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="88" style="display: block;" /></section></section></section></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>调控之后的几种可能性</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">接下来需要讨论的是,调控之后的几种可能性,这个可以借鉴发达国家的几种模式,大家或多或少有所听闻。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">香港模式:</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>土地集约化供给、全面泡沫化</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">最终导致人群两级分化严重,富人买50%的商品房,穷人住50%的公屋,人均居住面积仅为15.8㎡,房价位居全球第一,最新2021年的数据是市区平均房价3.17万美元/<span style="font-size: 14px;">㎡</span>。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">距离香港最近的深圳,过去几年就有这种发展倾向,或许政府有所察觉,最近接连给出降温大礼包,二手房指导价和商转住等,降低信贷支持、去楼市杠杆及增加有效供给。</span></p><p><br /></p></li><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">新加波模式:</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>土地国有化,全面民生化</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">85%的居民都居住在政府提供的商品房、廉租房,人均居住面积27.6<span style="font-size: 14px;">㎡</span>,超发达国家2-3万人民币/<span style="font-size: 14px;">㎡</span>,价格也相当亲民。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">所以把土地面积狭小与经济发达等同于房价高未必正确,当然也还有少量私人企业开发的高档住宅,价格相对昂贵。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们保障民生这方面在我们各个城市也都有,通俗的来说就是比例没那么大(一般占比在10-20%)、品质有点低、面积有点小、执行有点弱(容易变成福利房)。</span></p><p><br /></p></li><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">德国模式:</span><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">去地产化+超强管控</span></strong></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">大家知道德国的工业极其发达,大家熟悉的宝马、奔驰等汽车品牌都是来自德国,因其有强大的工业体系,财政税收收入支撑,所以德国政府一直是去地产化的思路,没有把房地产当作国民经济的命脉(也有可能正因为这个策略,强化了它的工业创新力)。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">超强管控主要指的是他在租房、售房体系下的价格管理极其严格,比如租金涨幅不得超过5%,新房售价涨幅超过10%可以起诉等等。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">联想到这几年的限价政策,大家应该有所感悟,前几年主要是新房,所以就出现价格倒挂万人摇号,“排队一晚上,顶你一辈子”这种非常离谱的事情,今年开始对二手房下手,效果非常明显,可以静静等待它的全面铺开。</span></p><p><br /></p></li><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">美国模式:</span><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">市场化+金融化</span></strong></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">是指其各自购房政策、利率、信贷支持都非常宽松,最终演化成2008年金融危机,就其背后的原因来说,是因为美国的房地产也是美元的蓄水池之一,当然没有咱们强,美股是主角,这个体系是联邦政府、美联储、华尔街这个利益共同体共同支撑。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">政府希望通过居者有其屋获取普通老百姓的选票,美联储通过货币发行及低利率水平维持其稳定,华尔街可以从中大规模证券化套利。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">这方面我们国家在一二线城市,房地产金融化属性已经很强,大多数贷款的抵押物都是房产,但市场化流通受到了相对严格的管控,这也是调控的一部分,三四线城市则好很多。</span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">通过上面四种模式的分析,大家或许发现了,我们国家每个都有涉及,只是力度和区域会有所差异。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这是由于</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>我们国家的超大规模性,带来的地域不均衡所导致的,“因城施策”成为主线</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从数据上来说,2020年中国住房市值为62.6万亿美元,明显大于美国的33.6万亿美元、日本的10.8万亿美元、英法德三国合计的31.5万亿美元(来源:泽平宏观),咱们国家的住房市值体量是美国+英法德四国的之和。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 578px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 578px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="width: 44px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;"><img data-ratio="0.5909090909090909" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/NXM1uH7qTx6KCT7pvwklArTCibFSLCuVaSlz5te5V2QicRIbbBDTg1LSg79HhEMwwDwbgFlCIKbTF69TINgyslSg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="88" style="display: block;" /></section></section></section></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>中国未来调控方向</strong></span></section><section style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">说到这里,我们可以发现我国出台的一系列政策,皆有迹可循,很多人肯定会问,那中国未来调控方向会是怎样?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">先做个背景补充分析,以上是针对内循环,富人+穷人的管理调控逻辑,外循环,同样可以细分为发达和不发达国家两条贸易路径——</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">针对发达国家,因为我们处于弱势,赚了他们的钱,所以需要购买国债,形成资金回流,同时也是一种给人民币增加信用的方式;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">对不发达国家,我们处于强势地位,但我们的做法就跟西方国家不一样,不是单纯给钱,因为</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>贫穷的本质并不是缺钱,而是系统性的意识形态不匹配。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">于此,很多人会将教育解读为最终解决方案,我国的做法加强内外连接的思路,加速全球化、工业化,使其有吸纳先进技术(这里的先进是相对他们的先进,如大货车就比人肉车先进)、创造财富的基础,最终形成良好的利益循环,中国有句古话:</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>授人以鱼不如授人以渔</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">还有一个大的国际背景数据就是,从中美最大贸易国来看,2020年世界75%的国家,最大的贸易伙伴已经是中国,亚非拉同胞基本都拥入大中华的怀抱,数量上占据了绝对优势。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="748" data-backw="503" data-ratio="1.4870775347912524" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyvbicpU1CaphAPr6wDsEEIRf1ibicBicMbicZOuUNBFZH0okibiaqEBOzaSRz1e2kfhrCLSJ3DAzTnV69VA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="503" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.8559919436052367" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyvbicpU1CaphAPr6wDsEEIRshZ2jiaCp9Rv6rUALx9CVmLd5vkyJzA6yClnS3ansibicicqaRAyKGV0bQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="993" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">基于以上的分析,回到国家战略视角,最终的格局挑战及解题方向大概率是:</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>人民币的国际化,强化世界枢纽角色</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。具体如何推动呢?我认为大概会有三个方向:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">天时:美元体系下的全面通胀,信用下挫</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这方面主要是外力推动,货币信用一方面来自于力量的博弈,另一方面还需要道德管制,无休止的印钞。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">最终大概率就是全面通胀、信用下挫(美国正在走这条路,但实力太强,还需要时间消化,节点应该是中国GDP超越美国)或全面通缩、集体躺平(日本失去的30年)。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">地利:人民币汇率&amp;信贷政策调整,科创崛起</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">此事关联到资本市场,听说最近创业板又创新高,我想就是在这个背景下产生的。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">过去20年,因为中国的资金流主要覆盖房地产、大中型国有企业,而非中小企业、实体经济,于是整体科技创新动力不足。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">目前的解决方案是,对外放松外汇管制,加速国外资本、技术的流入,同时对内银行信贷定向支持中小创企业,启动科创板、加速注册制等一二级市场的融资能力。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">虽然前几天我司还在讨论这个问题,略带偏见的想法是很多中小企业、科创企业没啥真材实料,很多骗贷上市融资吃红利,但我的观点是“口子打开”是使命,需要有包容性,政府当然知道有以上的可能性。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">好比40年前规划了5个经济特区,目前就深圳崛起,难道我们就要否定经济特区这个政策吗?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">科创也是这个逻辑,在硅谷,1000家公司,有1家能够成为国际大企业就可以了,没必要纠结与责骂另外999家的失败,目前需要的是容错机制,降低失败的代价,鼓励创新立业。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">人和:财富再分配机制下,内需走强</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">站在这个逻辑体系上,可以直接对位到房地产政策上的一些预判,内需走强的核心是中产阶级的扩大,避免陷入中产阶级陷阱。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">于此,我们可以</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>延用富人和穷人、发达与不发达的核心分类治理逻辑</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们可以推测</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>一二线城市的政策力度只会走强</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,方式方法可能会各有千秋,具体可参考上面说的4种模式,关键是走强,不要幻想减弱。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br />为什么之前会、现在不会?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">因为现在一二线城市的房价,已经比肩世界一流城市,目前全国有23个城市房价超过2万/㎡,没有大幅上行的空间,如果继续上行,那必然会导致大规模资金外流,然而在人民币国际化的核心战略下,放松是大势所趋。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">前几天上海已发文在浦东试点。所以如果深圳、上海房价20万<span style="font-size: 14px;">/㎡</span>,纽约、伦敦房价15万<span style="font-size: 14px;">/㎡</span>,聪明的富人肯定跑的比我们快、外资跑的更快。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">结合前面4种国家的模式,我预判未来几年,一二线高房价区域(便于理解,我初步的定义为房价大于2万<span style="font-size: 14px;">/㎡</span>为高房价城市、1-2万<span style="font-size: 14px;">/㎡</span>为中高房价城市)的调控路径和发展模式,大概是</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>去地产化+超强管控+土地高效化+加快民生化等4点。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">去地产化</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">:科技金融+大生产、大服务变强,地产变弱,预判增加值占比低于20%,迈向10%将逐步成为常态;</span></p><p><br /></p></li><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">超强管控</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">:“三限”不放松+一二手联动限价等全面铺开强化,房价涨幅小于6%,即低于收入/GDP的增速;</span></p><p><br /></p></li><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">土地高效化</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">:扩大有效供给,如加大住宅用地比例,加快城中村改造,居住用地面积比例将维持在30%-35%,国际标准饱和舒适线;</span></p><p><br /></p></li><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">加快民生化</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">:公租房、安居房、共有产权房比例的持续提高,预判比例将逐步提高至50%以上。</span></p><p><br /></p></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5297092288242731" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyvbicpU1CaphAPr6wDsEEIRmjk15TrLX86oyTa4s9HdgCGrE6icD7Twd2RnSHN6yUficu38dv10rmKQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1582" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">相反,结合中国实际情况,因为地方债务、房价泡沫不高、实体经济不强、居民住房拥有率高等原因,目前全国333个城市中246个城市房价是低于10000元/<span style="font-size: 14px;">㎡</span>,其中115个城市低于6000元/<span style="font-size: 14px;">/㎡</span>,预判大多数</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">中低房价的三四线城市政策力度为稳中走弱</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">因为在各个地级市、县城拥有房产的人是中国内需、中国中产的坚实力量,对于他们的财富水平的稳定和提高至关重要,加快农村集体用地的市场化也是超级大礼包。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">因此,我认为</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>三四线中低房价城市土地集约化+房价泡沫化+加快市场化+鼓励金融化</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">是大概率推行4种方案。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">土地集约化</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">:控量报价是个长期有效的策略,预判大部分城市的土地供应将以平稳甚至略减为主;</span></p><p><br /></p></li><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>房价泡沫化</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">:因为大部分小城市泡沫很小,房价可以适度拉高,增加居民财富;</span></p><p><br /></p></li><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">加快市场化</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">:限购限贷政策会相对宽松,让更多的人参与进来,适度降低交易成本,增强自由交易流通。</span></p><p><br /></p></li><li style="font-size: 14px;"><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">鼓励金融化</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">:增强房产的资产属性,盘活地方经济,同时也是种利用信贷增加流动性的方式。以利率为例,预判不同于一二线的利率上行,三四线大概率会平稳或下行,一改当前一二线购房利率明显大于三四线的状况。</span></p><p><br /></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">当然,群体和个体之间还有很大差异,不同城市的城市定位、发展阶段、房价水平、产业基础、空间格局有其独特性,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>共性趋势下预判个体的可能性会更加准确</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">,本次分享到此结束,感谢您的耐心阅读。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">大家对城市研究感兴趣,想做进一步交流</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">欢迎加钟老师微信,期待观点碰撞<br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIwS5riabx0rDcDAxFuaqlIxVDJsVSKBhKLPTncVXuIRkvSFbic1hOb0fyno5O5RenSYsxyYYcYJBCPg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="430" /></p><section 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