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聊聊房产税的一些看法

发布于 2023-04-26

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normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;outline: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1px;text-align: center;justify-content: flex-end;line-height: 1.5em;visibility: visible;"><section style="outline: 0px;display: inline-block;width: 562px;vertical-align: top;height: auto;border-width: 0px;visibility: visible;"><section style="outline: 0px;text-align: justify;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;visibility: visible;"><section style="letter-spacing: -1px;text-align: right;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: -20px;border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;z-index: 0;text-align: center;justify-content: center;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 270.797px;vertical-align: top;height: auto;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;justify-content: center;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="cursor: text;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;" /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="cursor: text;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;" /></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;justify-content: center;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="cursor: text;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;" /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="cursor: text;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;" /></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;justify-content: center;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="cursor: text;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;" /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align: right;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;outline: 0px;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;visibility: visible;"><span style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;">▼</span></section></section></section><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">昨日,一则“我国全面实现不动产统一登记”的消息引发热议:</span><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">有人认为:这将导致富人抛售房产;</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">有人认为:这是政府土地财政的一个转折;</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">有人认为:这是房产税的前奏;</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">……</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">上午看到我们禾略城市研究群也是议论纷纷,刚好一年多前有跟华润分享一些关于房产税的素材内容,今天拿出来跟大家聊聊,从国内外历史案例,一起看看未来可能的路径。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">首先,需要有个<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>整体视角看待政策的出台</strong></span>。我们国家的政策制定,一向是采用<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>渐进式</strong></span>的方式推行,通常还会用<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>小样测试</strong></span>的方式进行先行探索,有个持续</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);text-decoration: none;">打补丁</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">的过程。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">可以用</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(217, 33, 66);"><strong>“点-线-面-体”</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">的思维来理解房地产相关政策的出台。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">Ⅰ 时间点事件</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:</span><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 16px;">自然资源部部长王广华4月25日在全国自然资源和不动产确权登记工作会议上宣布,我国全面实现不动产统一登记。除此之外,我们还可以看到很多类似的新闻,如某某市放开限购、调整土地出让规则、降低房产利率等等。</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="text-align: center;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">表1:2021年底时点的一些事件</span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="275" data-ratio="0.512962962962963" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzE0qyyjEq2sYmx1qKyBlUp9NI2URhrMR63DHWnxyS2BRpT5KVZmystbeOkjh8lY21Cme82GShTaQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;width: 546px;height: 280px;" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 17px;"><strong>Ⅱ 政策周期线</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:将不同城市、某一时间段的事件组合起来,可以洞察出同一时间的主线,比如当下就是<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>典型的宽松周期</strong></span>。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">除了个别城市、局部区域,全国大部分地区已经放开限购。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">同时,利率处于历史低位,首付2成是主流,同上一个宽松周期2014-2017年时极其相似,同2018-2020年是完全不同的。</span><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">过</span><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">去几年,我</span><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">们经历了“5道红线”和</span><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">“两集中”等。</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图1:2008-2021年底政策周期</span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="316" data-ratio="0.5787037037037037" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzE0qyyjEq2sYmx1qKyBlUp801miafKdhyRXLpEUAjibdbK0vaf6Pa0J5F6lKXQyFj9HEEos88LfMww/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="text-align: justify;letter-spacing: 0.034em;width: 546px;height: 316px;" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">Ⅲ 多主体面:</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">回到2017年给出的方向,坚持“房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的”的定位,增加保障性租赁住房和共有产权住房供给。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">为了达到这个政策目标,需要多方共同执行,具体有哪些主体,具体可以有哪些策略,当时画了一张图,供参考:</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图2:“房住不炒”政策的多主体配合</span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="706" data-ratio="1.2922143579373104" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzE0qyyjEq2sYmx1qKyBlUpKzXwanEHShpmHg7j4lDGGMDWZ0SOLSqnKXrqFuZa00s29KnJaTvM5A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="989" style="text-align: justify;letter-spacing: 0.034em;width: 546px;height: 706px;" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">具体来说,有买方、卖方,还有主角、配角。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">当下看,<strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">组合拳施行多年以来,效果略超预期</span></strong>,很多严厉政策已经退出了,甚至从紧缩改为宽松,当然也有疫情等黑天鹅事件的影响。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">拉长周期看,从2017年政策提出到现在,大部分房地产投资者收益基本归0了,房真的只能住不能炒,这次政府没有骗人。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 17px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong>Ⅳ 一个完整体</strong></span></span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-size: 16px;">:房地产是国家内需的一部分,前段时间就“是不是支柱产业”讨论来讨论去,答案很清楚,需要你的时候就是。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">一个整体的意思是,从国家视角,对外</span><strong style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">先进制造+人民币国际化</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">才是核心,对内</span><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.034em;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>美好生活+共同富裕</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">才是方向。</span><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所以,任由市场自由发展,导致“<strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">富人躺赢+中产内卷+穷人躺平</span></strong>”的状态是不可行的,政策干预,回归居住属性是必然,这点与发达国家是不同的。</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图3:一体化理解:房住不炒</span><span style="text-align: justify;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-size: 16px;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;</span><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f" style="text-align: justify;letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="333" data-ratio="0.6101851851851852" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzE0qyyjEq2sYmx1qKyBlUpqzaibs0b0hvp3HGEx6micwy0LIfDpXeVnLm20rnqnodtEwtf98uMbrLQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="text-align: justify;letter-spacing: 0.034em;width: 546px;height: 333px;" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我司郑老板认为过去的财富很多是货币幻觉,眼下正处于一个清算的周期,这点从国家战略上来说,同防止<strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">房地产的过度金融化、财富分配的过度两极化</span></strong>是一脉相承的。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">短期很痛、长期有益,短期的痛,是对近几年偏好于投资房产的房地产从业人员来说会刻骨铭心。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所以,从整体面来看,本次“我国全面实现不动产统一登记”政策的出台,<strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">大概率是房产税的一个前奏,属于财富的二次分配的一个落地举措</span></strong>,但这个周期和执行的节点还有待观测。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">那到底如何看待房产税?</span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">如果出台,它真的会引发抛售?价格下跌?</span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 40px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 40px;"><strong>01 </strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 24px;"><strong>回顾上海重庆</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这个咱们自己已经探索了十几年了,先从国内的两个案例说起:一个是上海、一个是重庆。</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">表2:上海、重庆房地产税试点政策</span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="297" data-ratio="0.5444444444444444" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzE0qyyjEq2sYmx1qKyBlUpJJsTiaB14pjm6P8I5hMxBAueSjykEKXuzjPichc39KZkXmU1Pu0jQ4gA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="text-align: justify;letter-spacing: 0.034em;width: 546px;height: 297px;" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">通过对比,查看细节,可以发现它们有以下特点:</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>保护刚需</strong></span>:上海针对本市居民的首套房予以免征,而重庆是对纳税人所拥有的普通住房免征;上海以家庭为单位,拥有人均60平米的免征面积,重庆在新政施行后新购住房免税面积为100 平米;</span></p></li><li><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">以市场交易价为计税依据</span></strong>:上海的计税依据是市场交易价格的 70%,而重庆为 80%,主要针对的是流量交易;</span></p></li><li><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>差别化税率</strong></span>:上海的一般税率为0.6%,而如果应税交易均价低于上一年度新房均价的2倍,则减按0.4%计征;重庆的税率同样以房价水平分类,税率分为0.5%、1%和1.2%三档;</span></p></li><li><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>存量资产有限追溯</strong></span>:上海房征收对象都是在2011年新政后的新购住房,即只要在此后没有购房行为,存量房产暂时不缴纳;重庆则规定纳税人在办法施行前拥有的独栋商品住宅有180平米的免税面积,高于新购住房所规定的100平米免税标准。</span></p></li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">总体来看,两个城市出台的<strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">房产税力度低</span></strong><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">,范围小</span></strong>,对刚需、改善几乎无纳税,高端纳税额也很小,回头看也可以看出<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>对房价影响十分有限</strong></span>。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 40px;">02&nbsp;</span></strong><span style="font-size: 24px;"><strong>借鉴国内外</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们再来看下国际几大国家的案例,同步也看下香港,因为我们很多政策都是从香港那边学来的:</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">表3:各国/地区房地产政策</span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="315" data-ratio="0.5787037037037037" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzE0qyyjEq2sYmx1qKyBlUpOiaiaCianics83SRFuHNgRLEUDoicZN9kTJAbBs3Y7cicwPB8pk4vcRcgLdg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="text-align: justify;letter-spacing: 0.034em;width: 546px;height: 316px;" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">可以看到:税种、税基及税率差异很大。</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>税种</strong>:韩国有土地税、美国主要是不动产税、香港还有差饷税、物业税等;</span></p></li><li><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">税基</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">:有评估价、交易价、物业租金的市场价值;</span></p></li><li><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">税率</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">:0.2%-5%不等,通常还会分本地和外地人。</span></p></li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">以韩国为例,住宅标准价值的60%为税基,34.27万以下免税,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>随着税基增加,超出税率逐级递增</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。另外地方和政府叠加征收,多数房屋持有者需按最高档税率缴纳不动产税,目的是减小贫富差距。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2005年,韩国综合不动产税正式出台。持有人名下的房产总价值超过6亿韩元的,随价值升高,收取<strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">0.5%到2%不等的综合不动产税</span></strong>。这个税是向一个人持有多套住房挥砍的一刀。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2020年,文在寅政府更是将最高一档税率提高了恐怖的6%。也就是说,持有多套平均价格的公寓,最高将要缴纳每年每套约42万元人民币的税费。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">但房价更多还是一种市场行为及货币结果</span></strong>,面对2020年疫情冲击,2021年全球资产都有个大通胀的状态,当下,面对美元加息,全球各地资产又进入快速下行通道。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="text-align: center;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图4:2021年韩国房价表现</span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="190" data-ratio="0.34629629629629627" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzE0qyyjEq2sYmx1qKyBlUp9R04iaI4bYKpMMia14HO3THsO5Hd2QSWMxpaCTMuWNvSHTrTKNBWfdiaA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;width: 549px;height: 190px;" /></section><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">还可以看下<strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">美国各州的税率差异</span></strong>:根据2018年的数据,美国的平均房屋价值为22万美元,全国房地产的</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">平均税率为1.2%</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,也就是说每个家庭交的房地产税不到3000美元。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">而美国的家庭平均收入是10万美元左右,一个家庭交的房地产税也就是<strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">收入的3%</span></strong>。</span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图5:美国各州税率地图</span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="451" data-ratio="0.8273453093812375" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzE0qyyjEq2sYmx1qKyBlUpMsFdj83LFD8Qw70z59XUnfdpj7CNo6wc24xvHHBmaQcf4FvIR2hdZg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1002" style="width: 546px;height: 452px;" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">通过对比,我们可以发现,<strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">房产税可操作空间很大</span></strong>。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 40px;">03&nbsp;</span></strong><span style="font-size: 24px;"><strong>三个核心点</strong></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 18px;"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong>纳税范围</strong></span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: 16px;">:</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">我国主要是针对近期增量交易、而国外是存量持有。显然持有比例要远远高于交易的比例,叠加时间的影响,差异会巨大,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">一个是针对有限流量、一个是针对所有存量</span></strong>。</span></strong></span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;">此外,我国主要针对多套房人群,而国外是全覆盖。</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 18px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;"></span></strong></span></p></li><li><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 18px;"><strong>纳税标准</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:我国(上海、重庆)主要是根据面积大小来定,保护刚需原则;而国外(美国、韩国)主要是价格,直接面向有钱没钱;中国香港是以物业租金的测算方式,是个财富流量创造的视角。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">综合比较,<span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>面积体现的是居者有其屋的思路,价格才是真正针对贫富问题</strong>。</span></span></p></li><li><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 18px;">纳税税率</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">:我国税率偏低0.4-0.6%为主,而国外弹性空间大,如美国房地产的平均税率为1.2%,整体税率高,<strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">一高一低力度差异大</span></strong>。</span></p></li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">整体来说,从已有案例看,<strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">房产税跟价格涨跌关系不大</span></strong>,具体我国的情况,眼下还没有细则出台,都是些猜测和想象。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">提供几个观测视角,需要看具体的房产税纳税<strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">范围、标准、力度</span></strong>。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);font-size: 18px;"><strong>范围:针对存量还是流量?</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);font-size: 18px;"><strong>标准:测算面积还是价格?</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);font-size: 18px;"><strong>力度:税率是高还是低?</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">同时附上,当时的8大观点及预测,同大家分享:</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1.它是城市化达到一定水平的必然产物。</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2.城镇化率大于70%的才有可能成为种子城市。</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">3.它只是共同富裕的落地举措之一。</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">4.它是防止阶层分化,陷入中等阶级收入陷阱的国家战略。</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">5.它影响的不止是居民,还有企业,囤地风险加大。</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">6.选择高价城市+高总价房屋落地试点是大概率事件。</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">7.遗产税也将是未来3-5年的执行要点。</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">8.中国有可能走出独有行情。</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></p><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;color: 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