官网首页 › 研究观点 › 观点正文

聊聊房地产行业天花板的问题

发布于 2021-10-28

<p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.75em;"><img data-backh="121" data-backw="370" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="390" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="575" data-fileid="100021998" data-ratio="1.5197740112994351" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVOaA7FAucfGlibkoEcfqDjjlI7IymK65uUkxYZTeb3HrX4X4enfbMbk1VDeR2ib2q7IwGOTuSq0xA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="354" style="outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);text-indent: 36px;width: 176px;height: 269px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;" /><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><section data-role="outer" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;white-space: normal;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="outer" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="outer" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="135编辑器" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(75, 75, 75);font-family: PingFangTC-ultralight;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;transform: rotate(0deg);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;text-align: right;"><section style="margin-right: 20px;margin-left: 25px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: bottom;flex: 100 100 0%;align-self: flex-end;height: auto;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-left: 18px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;border-left: 1px solid rgb(179, 197, 188);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;flex: 100 100 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: right;justify-content: flex-end;transform: translate3d(-20px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(149, 158, 160);letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.8;font-family: PingFangSC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 13px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;">· |&nbsp;全文共4865字,预计阅读时间20分钟&nbsp;| ·</span></p><p style="font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 13px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;"><br /></span></p></section><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="93256" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="outer" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="outer" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="outer" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="135编辑器" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(75, 75, 75);font-size: 16px;text-align: center;font-family: PingFangTC-ultralight;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;justify-content: center;letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;width: 316.797px;vertical-align: top;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;height: auto;border-top: 1px solid rgba(205, 202, 202, 0.83);border-top-left-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="135编辑器" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: justify;line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;"></span><br /></p></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 20px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;widows: 1;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 45px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">01</span></strong></strong></span></strong></span></p><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 20px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;widows: 1;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;真的吗?我不信</strong></span></strong></span></p></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">每当行业调整时,作为一名房地产行业从业者,我们都有类似的担忧,那就是</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>房地产是不是快不行了?要不要转行?</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">市场上总有很多大佬出来说,行业见顶、市场将向头部集中、重点布局东部核心一二线城市、要勒紧裤腰带过日子……</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">真的吗?我不信。</span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">先抛出当下的一些判断:</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: square;"><li style="font-weight: bold;font-size: 14px;"><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;行业远远没到天花板,本次只是周期性波动而已;</span></strong></span></section></li><li style="font-weight: bold;font-size: 14px;"><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;行业风口不在了,信用锚带来的超额收益将快速消失;</span></strong></span></section></li><li style="font-weight: bold;font-size: 14px;"><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;我们不需要勒紧裤腰带过日子,而要系统的迭代工作方法;</span></strong></span></section></li><li style="font-weight: bold;font-size: 14px;"><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;我们更不需要转行,而是要日复一日地推进独立思考的能力。</span></strong></span></section></li></ul><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><section style="white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 45px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">02</span></strong></section></section></section><p style="white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 20px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;widows: 1;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">一段不堪的经历</span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">很多朋友或许对上面“真的吗?我不信”这句话很熟,它是禾略2019年底在上海和深圳分享会的一个篇章主题。回到这个问题,我们先回顾并验证下2019年底分享会的一些观点。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">首先看看,上一次行业周期调整时,大家的非理性是如何表演的?回到2014年,</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>当初我们都还是年轻小伙子的时候,是如何天真的被忽悠?</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">2014年,商品房销售面积12.06亿平方米,同比</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>下降7.6%</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">;商品房销售额7.63万亿元,</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>下降6.3%</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">。销售面积和销售额双双下降,市场一片恐慌。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-fileid="100022000" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5858585858585859" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3DPOYTC1g0ic6icHDhOXrWu4LsdgOKw0SuC4pO9ZickP8ZykJVvCYiaQb4cSxITBMHyGIwnd2GRhe5A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">于是,我们当时给华夏做研究的时候,也引用市场</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>主流观点:人口红利期已过</strong>,<strong>房地产增量市场进入尾声,从黄金到白银时代</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">当时的方式并不是去论证这个观点的对错,而是单纯可视化表达。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">看下图的变化,彼时还是实习生的小编(现在禾略品牌负责人于美美)非常形象的画了2张图,2014年前是人多房少,几百人抢1套房(这种盛况2017-2019年倒是非常常见,特别是价格倒挂等待摇号中奖那场面),后面是1个人选几百套房,就是</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>迎合这种恐慌情绪</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-fileid="100022001" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5584415584415584" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3DPOYTC1g0ic6icHDhOXrWu1CB06yP0GFRXcuD6TWY8u4apLmvK9shSD0zYZibXd8Iu56W1v5edojg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">同时,通过</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>周期性的数据去论证</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">,核心大城市就是牛逼,一线房价涨幅高于二三线,市场分化明显,新一轮的市场竞争将聚焦于少数拥有优势资源的城市,进入大城主导时代。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-fileid="100022002" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5526695526695526" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3DPOYTC1g0ic6icHDhOXrWumibg8sgVbXbLlbb1vaiceDZXOOJrue7LFJa2hcCeV8MqrF05PwgzJmxg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">大家看得出来,</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>当时还是小伙子的我们,也被市场忽悠的团团转,Too young too native</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">我们一起来,看看2014-2019年真实市场发生了什么呢?顺带同步我们总结出的一些判断方法论,希望能帮助到大家更好理解当下,预判未来。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-fileid="100022003" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.556998556998557" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3DPOYTC1g0ic6icHDhOXrWuDz2lFasGAIH0Staian7okl6uEHVGNRE09ynPRFq0j16kXX0wL7HYbZQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;text-decoration: none;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: none;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">一、&nbsp;总量倍增,远超预期</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">,市场规模直接从7.63万亿干到15.15万亿。我相信如果有人在2014年预判未来5年市场规模将超越10万亿,很大可能被认为是天方夜谭,更不用说15万亿这种天文数字。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">当初,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration: underline;"><strong>我们以为不可能的未来,变成理所当然的现在</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">,并没有出现2014年所认为的共识,进入存量主导,白银时代等等。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">二、&nbsp;全国普涨,接力轮动</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">,15-19年这个大周期其实是个从一线到四线、从东部到西部轮动的过程,从最开始的深圳,到厦门、苏州、合肥(当初房价四小虎),慢慢到西北、东北很多偏远的二三线城市,价格基本也涨了一倍。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">于是,我们看到这一轮抢占了三四线的恒大、碧桂园得到了行业规模,融创把握了中西部二线崛起的机会等等。所以,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration: underline;"><strong>上一轮市场并不是一线走强,其他走弱,加速分化,而是轮动</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-fileid="100022004" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6666666666666666" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3DPOYTC1g0ic6icHDhOXrWuibXy7FAeMza1o5jqB6OrxD5OmEDaibjYnXibjG1mg6Wicco4wU4Y1fcH3w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">三、&nbsp;去地产化,越去越重</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">。房地产行业的销售占GDP比重,从2014年的11.99%提升至16.39%,占比提升高达4.4%,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration: underline;"><strong>名副其实的风口行业,呈现全国全面地产化的状态</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">当然,现在我们可以回头认为,这是为何这两年调控这么严格的原因,因为房地产是个不可贸易行业,具有防范估值过高,控制系统性的风险。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">以上回顾,核心想说,</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>我们很容易成为脆弱的小动物,被主流舆论所左右,然而事实往往并非如此,找到方法,保持独立思考能力很重要</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;widows: 1;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 45px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">03</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></p><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 20px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;widows: 1;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">一个数据量化研判方法</span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">我们聚焦总量天花板的问题,同步更新一下数据,2020-2021年整体市场并没有出现寒冬,仅仅是部分企业、部分城市根据1-9月的增速来看,</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>2021年行业销售规模有望突破20万亿</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">。(2021年1-9月,全国商品房销售额13.48万亿,同比增长<strong>16.6%</strong>)</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">那当时我们预判是个什么情况呢?</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">从内部驱动因子来看,其实行业天花板的核心驱动因子M1供应量、居民存款、城市建设等3个因子所决定的,本质上来看,过去</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>行业规模的增长就是城市化过程中的货币现象</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-fileid="100022005" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5815295815295816" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3DPOYTC1g0ic6icHDhOXrWuq0ibuVCvX8czicvxCWj1LR8vFdZNQicc4sgVyjq0nQcJ6zJl9VVGpGVMw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">我们当时用的指数平滑预测未来的M1、居民存款、市政建设等数据的变化,初步得出2020年商品住宅规模是15.16万亿(实际值是15.4万亿),2021年是17.05万亿(按照前三季度数据13.14万亿,同比涨幅17.8%,考虑这几个月有些短期波动),吻合度还是非常高。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">我们尝试看远一点,如</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>5年周期,2025年就是26.6万亿</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">,我记得这个时候大家第一反应就是“哇,不可能”,既开心、又失落的表情让我很惊讶,面对几百号人,不宜做过多的解释。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">其实,这是个基本的算术问题,金融第一课都会说“复利”的魔力。假设达到26.6万亿,年均增长率也仅仅</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>11.9%</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">,大家感觉很惨的2021年1-9月,商品住房销售额同比增长</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;">17.8%</span></strong><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">细分来看,它是销售面积和销售价格的叠加,假设未来房价年均涨幅只有4%(就是还不如GDP),面积年均涨幅3%,两者叠加也有12%。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">所以,单纯从算法上来看,</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>天花板并没到来,因为总量很庞大,增量依然很可观,但增速面临下滑的状况</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">,过去5年平均值是15.25%,未来大概率回归到10-12%的水平。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-fileid="100022006" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5743145743145743" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3DPOYTC1g0ic6icHDhOXrWurqaxbGaFPIZ9VmhG91bmhEArYLHT8HUQRchqEMgG6zaia9d4qYcDDdA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;widows: 1;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 45px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">04</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 20px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;widows: 1;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">房子真的够了吗</span></strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 20px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;widows: 1;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">以上仅仅从算法上作预判,有个前提条件,就是过去的驱动逻辑在未来依然存在并适用,回答这个问题,本质要回归到需求,那就是</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>城镇商品住房真的过剩的吗?</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">看国家统计局的数据,我们可以看到的是</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>全国城镇平均居住面积39.8平米</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">,已经达到发达国家的平均水平,快接近铺张浪费,喜欢住郊区大别墅的美国。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">这个时候就需要结合中国的国情去看结构,我们国家老百姓居住的房产很多并不是商品住房,而是自建房、厂房宿舍、单位分配房等。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">以中部城市武汉为例,如果我们以美好生活的标准去评判的话,2016年只有35%的人是居住在正儿八经的商品住房里面,</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>65%存在改善住房条件的刚性需求,当然具体会不会这么干,买不买房,还得考虑能力问题</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">2020年的数据,大家可自行查阅统计年鉴,个人判断通常变化并不大,因为新建商品住房和新增外来人口同步快速增长。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-fileid="100022007" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7553956834532374" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3DPOYTC1g0ic6icHDhOXrWu3MQG3pkx4icZ6Hzib81ahBpB3UZAlicMo6JA3SuABYZQbyknoQFfYhFYA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="695" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">再来,2018年深圳的官方数据显示,真正的商品房套数占比仅17%,居民自建房高达48%。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">很多时候,我提醒我们房地产从业人士,我们属于高收入行业,或许都住上商品房,所以会默认其他普通老百姓也住上商品房。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">但这是认识的偏差,服务员和快递小哥这才是主流大规模人群,月薪五千、八千的,在深圳基本住城中村,即使能负担,很多人也不会花3000-4000租个小区单间,因为这个钱来之不易。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>钱怎么来的,决定了钱会怎么花</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">,很多时候并不是钱多钱少。深圳的关外和东莞,一个商品住房所处的位置,基本是农村包围城市的既视感,周边大概率是城中村+厂房,而不是小区。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-fileid="100022008" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7373737373737373" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3DPOYTC1g0ic6icHDhOXrWuUxttw8Cq8FRic8KBOwQRp9Wky2dFhZMkMwoVqlzAKylRsOM5icVvJQng/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">下面附图一张,我司郑老板10月中,在深圳宝安(房价10万+)上空的航拍图。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">正所谓站的高、看的远,换个视角看问题可能更清楚,很多企业高管都有这个习惯,建议大家<em><strong>以后坐飞机的时候,不要光顾着睡觉,可以看看外面的世界</strong></em><strong>。</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-fileid="100022009" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5988455988455988" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3DPOYTC1g0ic6icHDhOXrWuosQMzkTIzsjW4TNePgnQFcadvbrjbfKCePibicicDGtgBpaSy2oO3t8mA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">那从全国来看,</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>商品住房拥有率到底多少呢?</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">这个不难计算:</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: square;"><li><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">用全国历年的商品住房面积累计,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">1988-2021年总销售住宅面积:204.37亿平;</span></p></li><li><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">按2018-2020年套均面积102.8平计算,商品总套数为:</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>1.988亿;</strong></span></p></li><li><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;">用全国七普的数据2020年城镇家庭户数:</span></span><span style="font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;">3.44亿户</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;">,城镇人口商品房比例:</span><span style="font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;">57.96%;</span></strong></span></p></li></ul><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;">所以从从需求和总供给的角度来看,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>对标美日户均一套商品住房,仍有40%的空间</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;">。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;"></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-fileid="100022010" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7944606413994169" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3DPOYTC1g0ic6icHDhOXrWuQVsibUU0ia2d3qRtTEicNkebfj4iaLvHSDKlOs9XJB4kAlIFjPicicJMwdmg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="686" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">除此之外,还有熟悉的新增城镇化人口,带来</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>新增城镇住房需求</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">,用城镇化速率预判2020-2025年新增城市人口约为1851万人/年,假设人均住房面积39.8平/人,</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>新增住房需求面积为7.36亿/平/年</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">,相当于2020年住宅销售总量的48.61%,即外来刚需规模比例,体量上来看,会从过去高峰期的2500万人跌落到1800万人的水平。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-fileid="100022011" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5555555555555556" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3DPOYTC1g0ic6icHDhOXrWuyDMiaice4QL5LsMSY6BrSRIm9OBYIUpZ8icKfbC5X8MlrYAXoCNv9Q0LQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">说到这里,可能大家会觉得不太对,彷佛世界一片美好,跟当下的感知完全不符,到处都是降价促销的消息。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">是的,</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>前面说的是总需求,相当于未来的基本盘,总需求还在,就不存在系统性风险</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">;总需求的增长快慢,反应到市场上就是容量增长的快慢,增速下滑是需要接受和面对的,但并不是拐点。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">很正常,GDP从12%下降到6%,一方面暗示着政府已经不把GDP增长作为核心考核,而是能耗和民生。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">所以,在这种宏观大背景下,真正的风口行业很少,看股市就知道了,看着好像点数一直在涨,但真正上涨就那几个热点股票,估值极其高。<br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;widows: 1;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 45px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">05</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 20px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;widows: 1;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">如何看待当下市场及企业困局</span></strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">不同时间节点的表现及问题要回归到价格问题,当下我们感受到的寒冬,一方面是政策面的全面打压;另一方面是市场价格的周期性下行。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">从数据上看,今年上半年市场还是非常美好的,第一轮土拍后,6月基本成为拐点,市场下行后,土拍直接在全国范围凉凉。这就是</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>当下我们房地产从业人士的投资逻辑,个人觉得是很可悲的</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">4-5月你要是喊空,所有人都觉得你是傻子,胡说八道,唯一的原因就是过去几个月表现很好,</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>从结果到结果,深信不疑,玩得不亦悦乎</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">这跟统计过去1个月的股票涨幅,然后重仓买入是一样的道理,结果当然有对有错,但这逻辑不对,不具备可持续性,以及更新迭代的可能性。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-fileid="100022012" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.27232142857142855" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3DPOYTC1g0ic6icHDhOXrWuSJDNmXzMu6vlYIprQ1sjSghFgicic4JU4sJ34E6fOCWniaFtqPtaeG5lg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="672" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">具体从禾略种子数据来看,全国9月份环比下跌的城市有185个,上涨的是146个,下跌城市比上涨的多39个,从周期的角度来看,</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>50%的城市周期都处于高位回落的阶段</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-fileid="100022013" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7402597402597403" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3DPOYTC1g0ic6icHDhOXrWuT3wXfFdfs1PgcKU5odUfM4mJQqI5BnGlpjcmvjLUpe7G1ibUfj3UZbA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">解答这个问题,本质是要回归到“房住不炒”背景下,居民的真实购买力如何?是不是存在系统性的泡沫和风险?</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">所以,</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>市场是结果,基本面是原因,在政策强化“不炒”的影响下,回归常识,回归基本面会更加有效</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">。<br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">从基本面来看,房价的本质是要回归到收入,所以</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>判断一个国家、一个城市的房价的泡沫或者风险水平,核心是看两者的增速变化</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">全国层面来看,</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>2004-2017年房价持续跑输收入,2018年后房价开启加速泡沫化的过程</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">,2020年达到最高的1.21倍。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">当然不同城市差异很大,一二线的泡沫化水平会更高,也可同等级城市拉通比较,更好找到同等级城市风险更低的标。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">大家看到2017年房价之前持续跑输收入,会认为这不太可能,但从绝对平均数据看,2004-2021年全国房价平均涨幅是9.1%,而收入涨幅是10.2%,</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>房价跑输收入</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">这跟大家感知差异很大,原因是什么?</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">首先,需要强调的是这个全国整体,我们平时关注的那些大城市房价涨幅相对大一些,有些或许达到1.2倍、1.5倍,但只是</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>被平均</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">而已,还有是</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>复利的作用</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">;</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">再次,这个数据告诉我们,</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>房价的核心收益不是来自于房价涨幅,是来自于杠杆</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">,30%首付本就是3倍杠杆,9%的平均涨幅可以理解为27%。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">说到这里,就可以联想到房地产企业为何现在感觉这么难,因为房地产的平均杠杆率是9倍,收益和风险都是指数级增长,股市融资的朋友,一般也就是1倍杠杆,市场一波动,跳楼的新闻漫天飞舞。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">所以</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>这轮房地产市场没有基本面上的问题,就是市场的波动而已,但企业的杠杆把这个波动风险过度放大</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-fileid="100022014" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.679136690647482" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3DPOYTC1g0ic6icHDhOXrWu9UnFqwZFA1dZUbaeZnq3UaicAKMVuoPITIfsZXibWyGpVOUlkWtjqNmw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="695" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;widows: 1;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 45px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">06</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 20px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;widows: 1;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">关于未来的一些预判</span></strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 20px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;widows: 1;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">除了历史,未来我们也可初步的预判,不过这个是动态的,当下只能有些路标的假设。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: square;"><li><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">假设2022年房价不变,收入增长6.5%,那累计增速倍数为</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>0.68</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">;</span></p></li><li><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">假设2022年房价增长5%,收入增长6.5%,那累计增速倍数为</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>0.88</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">;</span></p></li><li><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">假设2022年房价增长9.1%(历史平均),收入增长6.5%,那累计增速倍数为</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>1.04</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">。</span></p></li></ul><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">所以,在房价不变的情况下,</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>2022年大概率就是房价周期性底部</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">,估值水平会接近2008年、2014年两个低点。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">从</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>禾略种子周期预判</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">来看,未来一年(2021.10-2022.9):41%的城市将进入衰退阶段,以下探筑底为主,其次复苏的城市占比达到31%,整体上来说,冷热不均,分化依然很严重,因此选城择时很重要。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-fileid="100022015" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.8672438672438673" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3DPOYTC1g0ic6icHDhOXrWu7Lz56wpUxlfuEd3z1GnPqPpVficIgv1u1NXteqrwFZO7AwIwHqW9o3g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="" /></p><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(12, 12, 12);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 24px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;widows: 1;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 45px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">07</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 20px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;widows: 1;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">对企业和个人的一些建议</span></strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 20px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;widows: 1;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">本次分享核心想说的是,我们可以借助数据、找到一些方法去研判,在新的时间点更新数据,找到方向,而</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong>不必被舆论所操控,当时代的奴隶</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">。最后,想给一些企业和个人一些建议:<br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="font-size: 15px;text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">对于企业而言:在没有风口的时代,日复一日地推进企业服务能力的建设,就是唯一的风口。</span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="font-size: 15px;text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="font-size: 15px;text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">对于个人而言:在没有超额收益的日子,转行只会回归均值,日复一日地推进独立思考的能力,就是唯一的方法。</span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="font-size: 15px;text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="text-indent: 47px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.75em;"><strong><span style="line-height: 114%;color: rgb(68, 114, 196);font-size: 15px;font-family: 华文楷体;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">· 感谢观看 ·</span></span></strong></p><section data-role="outer" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="85791" data-width="90%" style="margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 500.4px;flex: 0 0 90%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;padding: 20px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;background-image: url(&quot;https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/yqVAqoZvDibGjA6hepZgFegzwp60J0wskibSjJG7V5iaJZkpK6iapgskl2QZvia20tkia7mfkByeM7zc5QC1FOuJjUVw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&quot;);background-size: cover;background-position: 0% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 5px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 13px;letter-spacing: 1px;text-align: center;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">大家如对城市研究感兴趣,想进一步交流</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 13px;letter-spacing: 1px;text-align: center;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">欢迎加钟老师微信,期待观点碰撞!</span></section><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-fileid="100022019" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIwS5riabx0rDcDAxFuaqlIxVDJsVSKBhKLPTncVXuIRkvSFbic1hOb0fyno5O5RenSYsxyYYcYJBCPg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="430" style="height: 135px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;width: 135px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section></section><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">- 小军怼城系列持续更新中&nbsp;-</span><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247501240&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9be78e8d6cf412ee6d8fc8a3b50a7725&amp;chksm=9756bf9ca021368affa8145323b472c8db160804658f95227e66f4e02813a30ef3bfc0628d97&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="城市价值评估" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">城市价值评估</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247502221&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=482a963668925980a37994a5ed71ca78&amp;chksm=9756b3a9a0213abf8fc9fe023e2b736039dcb4ffd07ca723b45b4a47d6b304c5b7bf948ad4d7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="板块价值识别" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">板块价值识别</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247503141&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f92488f297ea1b4b74c946428905d367&amp;chksm=9756b701a0213e17bf323cb91417bf821f9d21aa7306c8aff37dc8f477a3557f69905dec9d68&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="人群特征洞察" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">人群特征洞察</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247503388&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=0f062d813045673d04c4b7be347791ec&amp;chksm=9756b438a0213d2e083602e6515dbb9bb37a733263a836463d7b5a9e43ee92c538be54659260&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="战略规划理解" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">战略规划理解</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247503934&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=29dbe853caf4dea0d356e22778a4d966&amp;chksm=9756aa1aa021230c64e6b0447a3208a9136be80b0388f9c85a67816aa8e53537e3e165f8da39&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="人口结构梳理" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">人口结构梳理</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247504018&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=269c9d6c2e6915926a4cc240d7ac8dcf&amp;chksm=9756aab6a02123a00b15021f1aa6bcafc9cc1fbb4b049afd92368f33044b67dc22614f96d0a8&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="价值预判模型" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">价值预判模型</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247504155&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7a312d239ffb7fd2e75a2005d48f8f1a&amp;chksm=9756ab3fa0212229e07cc62ecb672bcaeac96c08614f73cc0fd16d7de8c4be0785036e6a7156&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="关于“钱”的理解" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">关于“钱”的理解</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247504650&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7dcec8c3ae6ff1208d1350dcd2d544b2&amp;chksm=9756a92ea0212038826a76d5cca153a8d84c42e9d3fdd75a2dcb6278fc34738ecf85e804b614&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="地产调控理解" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">地产调控理解</a>&nbsp;|</span></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: red;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;-&nbsp; 小程序 -&nbsp;</span><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;·「禾略问答」·</span></section><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><a class="weapp_image_link" data-miniprogram-appid="wxf051804df9944e68" data-miniprogram-path="pages/index/index" data-miniprogram-nickname="禾略问答" data-miniprogram-type="image" data-miniprogram-servicetype="" wah-hotarea="click" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" href=""><img class="rich_pages" data-fileid="100022025" data-ratio="0.33830455259026687" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxgXqtJ7x2ATMbtIm1oBmTM5cLtzxaHKiaJINP1DiaedwSS8oUuQadhFxpcXZiaWxTvWyWxXichXeiaGHw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1274" style="outline: 0px;border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 677px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></a></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;caret-color: red;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;·<span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;">「HotTina」</span>·</span><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><a class="weapp_image_link" data-miniprogram-appid="wxdcdd1e610d71ae74" data-miniprogram-path="pages/serch/serch" data-miniprogram-nickname="HotTina" data-miniprogram-type="image" data-miniprogram-servicetype="" wah-hotarea="click" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" href=""><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="120" data-backw="389" data-fileid="100022022" data-ratio="0.30973451327433627" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxBKiaQNH3yAajSVKNDghYCq5gnROOAWjmdwIqhP9gBLpU9iaicBb19EGQVKpTzeP0lOXYyF5icG1y74Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="791" style="outline: 0px;border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;width: 660.994px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></a></section><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 12px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">*</span></p><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">▷往期文章彩蛋:不要戳开!!!</span></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500345&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=93797fca0ea11825bcc9e5e1c0109c52&amp;chksm=9756b81da021310ba7a377bdce7ef2877fb30eb246731c626bffd343008b77703527595ad2ed&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;vertical-align: bottom;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-fileid="100022021" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugLLibwPxIshPkhYb8rUpx6OiaokEiaiaoQAs4pBYvOk4KlGWhp5OagMyWaw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="outline: 0px;border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;width: 660.994px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500355&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=2c6ce758ab3881befb2fbba0ba3603f1&amp;chksm=9756b867a021317120bad43bc938ebb4cdb2953af8c54167618f6a0d2e10e4a0c0dbbeb90f65&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;vertical-align: bottom;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-fileid="100022023" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xug2z2ZNw3efskOCCTiaR2MZIrkVnqNUUySzc8kPhT5aLfLE1SvHGhoJUw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="outline: 0px;border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;width: 660.994px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500384&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=ce96c211a2ed19ee560b34d30d321292&amp;chksm=9756b844a0213152bb36ae4ebc877ea634416495af8892942074d23f0d1b5581b32b705c0835&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;vertical-align: bottom;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-fileid="100022024" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugNEZT4DD88icwcAl08ZuziaiadYt82wzZG5n14t7224xWjyeK8SNXNIp8A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="outline: 0px;border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;width: 660.994px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500776&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6f4fcd10bc90a8f72744416eda3995a4&amp;chksm=9756b9cca02130da9094518319d318ca4fd11413c1213d18be9cc9d8302528b34816fdd34394&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;vertical-align: bottom;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-fileid="100022026" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugA8lpBib3AWM95x6tIIxu56bryKOYOVyRWzd6jsYRjicIiaF1hohgrpN1w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="outline: 0px;border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;width: 660.994px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></span></a></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500347&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=dffbd70a87a2f5610cf728e4970ec869&amp;chksm=9756b81fa0213109c740e135c93ac90c20e029871a10bf1ad6d116f9d663d7a26b7d8a673bbe&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;vertical-align: bottom;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="86" data-backw="562" data-fileid="100022027" data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyWURddlHITkZgKz53a4xugMQjVx8C1LeClYXAgR1lKe771SGnJj9TxohSmoF4W79ORTDc52UmmNQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="outline: 0px;border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;width: 660.994px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></span></a></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: right;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section></section></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: right;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 13px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2021 | 真好野</span></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;caret-color: red;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">*</span><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">关注分享</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;caret-color: red;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">FOLLOW US &amp; SHARE ON MOMENTS</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="98910" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;flex-flow: row nowrap;display: flex;word-break: break-all;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">官网</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">微博</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">视频号</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">知乎</span></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">b站</span></p></section></section></section></section></section><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="98910" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;flex-flow: row nowrap;display: flex;word-break: break-all;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="13" data-backw="13" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="50" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="50" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIycoMZjGF8RrRlGEzqzackrSSVqK5SzNApiaN9vmWpNcEuzuMInkGCcu5SiaAn2iba30oI1cPAeJVnqw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" data-fileid="100022031" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-cropselx1="1" data-cropselx2="103" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="104" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-width="50px" width="50px" data-backw="18" data-backh="18" data-ratio="1" data-w="300" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZfQibibfZGIkjRNwTHwQ4KNp3zu2sgMcS5VLib1OHNDwOibjnPpUoribI5IcQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" data-fileid="100022028" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-fileid="100022030" data-ratio="1.0044247787610618" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzdKK1pWxDY25IjWC6hzyuZPClD30iaLtAVGt7UszT4kJMlymjsJz0yLneTFRIJS1jvpr56X0OGLrQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="226" data-width="50px" height="71" style="outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 50px !important;visibility: visible !important;" width="50px" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="47" data-backw="47" data-fileid="100022032" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZficyibw72OWmSMvgNNjSWoDHlf7aSgplp7dtCDAEFtJKHBnC8qaLHSIeQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" width="50px" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="13" data-backw="13" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="69" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="69" data-fileid="100022029" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwaUyIuHQngl5c5PD5uQEXrh3UfLLLmbNNIYHsl0uM1fFRJCOicUgwgiaAoBNbUmeBiahGEFZBm9uXAw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" width="50px" /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">感谢你的每一个分享 | 点赞 | 在看</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">SPECIAL THANKS</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">▼▼▼</span></section>

← 返回观点全库