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聊聊疫情之后,资金抱紧了谁的大腿

发布于 2021-10-12

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3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br 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0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;justify-content: center;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em;cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align: right;min-height: 1em;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-indent: 0em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 2em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;line-height: 2em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></span></em></span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 20px;"><em><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">/&nbsp;CHAPEAU/</span></strong></em></span></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(53, 53, 53);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 20px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);text-transform: uppercase;letter-spacing: 1px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: didot;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">前言</span></strong></em></span></strong></strong></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.75em;text-indent: 0em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-align: left;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);color: rgb(102, 102, 102);text-indent: 28px;widows: 1;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: PingFangSC-Light;box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">最近常常听说一句话——市场的归市场,凯撒的归凯撒。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">从货币角度来看,资金的总量由凯撒决定,而资金的流动,通常则由市场主导。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">无论是个人财富的增长,还是企业的经营发展,我们都需要紧跟资金的流动,类同疫情后的美联储的无限量QE,带动科技股屡创新高。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">本文从央行基础货币增发的角度出发,聚焦增量(即新增的钱),谁拿到了最新的人民币,哪些城市从中受益最大。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;justify-content: flex-end;line-height: 1.5em;text-indent: 0em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 100%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">01 </span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(117, 117, 118);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">@urasr</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;"><strong>后疫情时代</strong><strong>新增14.95万亿</strong></span></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(123, 127, 131);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;">///</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(123, 127, 131);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></span></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">首先,我们来看看,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>今年1-8月</strong><strong>货币释放量有多大?</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">从人民银行每月公布的货币总量,挑选广义货币M2,可以轻松制作下图:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><stroke joinstyle="miter"></stroke><formulas><f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></f><f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></f><f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></f><f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></f><f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></f><f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></f><f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></f><f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></f><f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></f><f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></f><f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></f><f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></f></formulas><path extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" connecttype="rect"></path><lock aspectratio="t"></lock></shapetype><shape type="#_x0000_t75" filled="f"><imagedata title="image1"></imagedata></shape><img data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="554" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="290" data-ratio="0.5241090146750524" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxtCpH2BF5RNgc5kVwtOAcvFMZDeJvnrFvGtBLpfokOGuEmJiaQGKFicLyLKwian1KliaATGxtlRbHGZA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1908" style="width: 554px;height: 290px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">可以看出,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>今年1-8月M2新增14.95万亿,比2020年同期减少了1.52万亿</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,最有意思的是,最近的3个月(2021年6-8月),持续保持在233万亿的水平,这就是为何最近到处都缺钱——总量不增长,有的人多了,有的人就少了,俗称“</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>内卷</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">的力量“。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">受疫情影响,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>2020年1-8月相比2019年同期,大幅增加了5.6万亿</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,增幅高达51.51%,这就不难解释,为何去年下半年,不论股市还是楼市,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>投资</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">的热度都很高。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="white-space: normal;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">02&nbsp;</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(117, 117, 118);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">@urasr</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;"><strong>谁的口袋钱变多了?</strong></span></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" style="white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(123, 127, 131);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;">///</span></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">接下来,我们从境内存款5个资金主体钱包看,2021年1-8月这些新增的钱,谁口袋的钱变多了?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">所谓的五个主体,分别是居民、企业、机关单位、政府财政、保险证券信托等——</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="554" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="135" data-ratio="0.24336569579288025" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxtCpH2BF5RNgc5kVwtOAcv3MIrq41VibsicNC2TMobSa5nryGoM0ayHePqDnibcGicrVY4osU7xBVJCg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1545" style="width: 555px;height: 135px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">从表中可以看出,虽然今年境内存款增量不大,变化幅度为4.97%,但</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>“一增一减”的趋势非常明显</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,企业的活期存款少了,居民定期、机关单位、政府财政、保险证券信托多了。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">我们从增幅的从高到低来分析下:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">* </span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(123, 12, 0);"><strong>非银机构增长18.65%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,受益于股市的上涨,基金的火爆,这点非常好理解,“深圳女孩爱搞钱“也是在此背景下,横空出世;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">* </span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(123, 12, 0);"><strong>财政存款增长9.52%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,可以理解为疫情后,政府税收政策逐渐回归正常,增收是缓解地方债务问题最有效的路径;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">* </span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(123, 12, 0);"><strong>居民定期增长7.77%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,控制风险意识持续走强,也有一部分是老龄化的因素;</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(123, 12, 0);"><strong>居民活期增长0.33%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,可以看出老百姓手头也并不富足,余粮没有变多;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">*</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(64, 118, 0);"><strong>企业活期减少2.33%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,这是唯一大幅减少的地方,一方面有上半年,受疫情影响,订单大幅上涨后,大量外贸型工业企业扩大再生产的因素;另一方面,就是房地产企业高负债背景下,三道红线去杠杆带来的结果。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">为了更好的体现变化,我们看下同期2020年1-8月的数据情况:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="554" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="175" data-ratio="0.31672297297297297" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxtCpH2BF5RNgc5kVwtOAcvITnMLfbEo0JqDTtzGP6FmPLib5lNXsUpW5Eec7WSiaPbiaPjDoabibGqUQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1184" style="width: 554px;height: 175px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">可以看出,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>除了受疫情影响居民活期存款减少外,其他整体均保持着稳定的增长趋势,</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">企业活期和定期分别增长11.23%和9.89%。综合2年变化趋势看看,不同存款主体的差异:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="554" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="183" data-ratio="0.3309066843150232" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxtCpH2BF5RNgc5kVwtOAcv2kRD29jl4sG1iaDomX7ibbXWSh1jx6WiaomiavoCqP7HFD7dLDvnETKwDw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1511" style="width: 554px;height: 183px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">综合来看,后疫情时代——</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">短期(1年周期)影响最大的是居民收入;</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">中期(2年周期)影响最大的是企业经营;</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">长期稳定的是政府收支,大幅波动的是非银金融。</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="white-space: normal;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">03&nbsp;</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(117, 117, 118);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">@urasr</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;"><strong>谁贷款花钱更积极?</strong></span></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" style="white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(123, 127, 131);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;">///</span></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">反过来看,贷款方面,相对去年同期,今年1-8月,谁贷款花钱更积极呢?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="554" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="312" data-ratio="0.5630657815328908" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxtCpH2BF5RNgc5kVwtOAcvOuFqG73eOZiafy4YBuQQZFzIPGmanEsnh2buJeI1MsZpNN9XWibDnfeA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1657" style="width: 554px;height: 312px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">从图中可以看到:</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>居民贷款增量都下滑了</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,保持全面谨慎态度,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>唯一增长的是长期经营贷款</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,同期增长了0.27万亿,可以理解为大量个体户投资再生产,或者因低息储备长期现金流。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">相反,企业单位则全面上涨,唯一减少的是短期贷款,大幅减少1.65万亿,或许是国家有意控制短期风险和杠杆。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="white-space: normal;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">04&nbsp;</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(117, 117, 118);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">@urasr</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;"><strong>关于“钱”的预判</strong></span></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" style="white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(123, 127, 131);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;">///</span></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">对比存款和贷款,在M2走稳的趋势下,可以有些预判:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">1、居民手头更紧,更不敢消费</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">拉长周期来看,从去年疫情以来,活期存款一直维持在31-33万亿之间,几乎保持稳定,同时我们看到,长期存款从54.7万亿增加到66.7万亿,增长趋势还不错。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">而居民贷款则保持在增量下滑的态势,从1.3万亿到0.98万亿。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">接下来如何结构性刺激消费或许是政策要点,说到消费,其实效用最大的就是几大件。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">可以看一下2020年的销售额:房地产17.36万亿、汽车3.9万亿、家电0.72万亿、手机0.60万亿、白酒0.58万亿。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">除此之外,就是日常的柴米油盐、衣食住行。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">通过最近几年的数据可以看出,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>除了房地产外,其他行业基本都处于盘整状态,市场容量已经相对饱和,增量非常有限。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">大家所看到的股票市场,其实是行业经过多轮厮杀,集中化的结果,除了汽车有新能源增量的概念,整体基本处于一个调结构的状态。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">2、企业短期的钱少,长期钱变多</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">不管是存款还是贷款,企业的短期资金量都变少了,而长期的变多了。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">存款方面,活期减少2.23%,定期增加3.03%,一方面可以解释为,部分龙头优质企业风险意识加强,另一方面也可能是很多中小企业现金流减少;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">贷款方面,短期贷款增量从去年的2.04万亿减少至0.4万亿,而长期贷款增加了1.06万亿,可以体现出,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>要从有银行体系拿“快钱”变的很难,特别是房地产这种受国家管控的行业,而能拿到长期贷款的企业,一般都是国企、央企</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,这就是为何第二次集中供地能够抄底的基本都是国企央企了。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="white-space: normal;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">05&nbsp;</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(117, 117, 118);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">@urasr</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;"><strong>哪些城市吸金能力变强?</strong></span></section><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" style="white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(123, 127, 131);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;">///</span></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">以上主要是从资金主体的角度进行比对,接下来我们从城市视角看,今年以来,哪些城市吸金能力变强了?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">整体来看,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>全国主要30城,今年本外币存款增量资金达到7.93万亿,占全国14.95万亿的53.1%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,其中top10城市占比达到37.34%,资金的聚焦效应不言而喻。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="554" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="518" data-ratio="0.9363636363636364" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxtCpH2BF5RNgc5kVwtOAcvziakv0AoRopzy2sqDEytur4EBJCBjYZgLPjjb0liaHj3uvnwR1caVeqg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="990" style="width: 554px;height: 519px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">首先,我们结合去年6月做的增量资金分析的结论,再来看看这一年的变化。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">从资金总量角度来看,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>2020年中国财富10城是:1北京、2上海、3深圳、4杭州、5广州、6苏州、7成都、8重庆、9宁波、10南京。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">长三角都市圈三颗新星:杭州、苏州、宁波崭露头角;西部第一城成都值得关注;除此之外,嘉兴、南通正积极融入大上海,发挥城市协同效应,而大深圳仍处于自身吸金主导阶段,未能辐射带动周边城市。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">一年过去了,今年有哪些变化呢?</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">* </span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>四大一线城市:北京、上海呈现走强趋</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">势</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,上海增量占比提升了0.77%,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>而广州、深圳走弱</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,深圳增量比例从6.3%大幅下降至4.6%;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="554" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="337" data-ratio="0.6084507042253521" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxtCpH2BF5RNgc5kVwtOAcvOmEH0ibDczQ6QgG2RCGibpsdFdtT4w2YMgcfngoKQCpKvrianxVtcUMKg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1065" style="width: 554px;height: 337px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">或许有些人很费解,为何要用增量占比来评价走强还是走弱。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">可以做个简单的比喻, “央行”放水,可以理解为是一个分蛋糕的过程,资金像水又像蜜,流入汇集的地方,往往就是财富的爆发和聚集地,如上海单一个城,去年集聚了全国6.68%的新增财富,今年提升至7.5%,即央行每放入市场100元,就有7.5元到了上海市。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">* </span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>长三角六大中心城市:南京大幅走强</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,从0.82%提升至3%、</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>杭州大幅走弱</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,从4%下降至2.9%,和去年走势完全相反,这个角度看京杭之争有变局。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">虽然杭州上一周期远远甩开了南京,但南京有望赢得下一阶段争霸的胜利;苏州、宁波、无锡则保持相对稳定的状态,合肥仍处于加速城市化和工业化的阶段,财富积累相对稳定。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="554" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="338" data-ratio="0.6106666666666667" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxtCpH2BF5RNgc5kVwtOAcvVWT5IyzT3kPJzg8Obn4ZHL2Z6DicBRB4eGT4gwCKJlMr2QpRXZ5mmZQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1125" style="width: 554px;height: 338px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">* </span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>中西部五大中心城市:中国第四极崛起趋势明显</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,成渝两城增量比例大幅增长0.61%、0.88%,成都、重庆单城的资金聚集力已超越武汉,增量占比也超越了2%,郑州出人意料的保持着快速聚集的趋势。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">简单翻阅了一下数据,可能主要是受进出口贸易的影响,1-8月,全市进出口总值3302亿元,同比增长46.8%,高于全国(23.7%)23.1个百分点。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="554" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="344" data-ratio="0.6207815275310835" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxtCpH2BF5RNgc5kVwtOAcv5erFkBdQajn4DibBdKiap0X35TQnYic0icMGjmysBvKsiaTyCx9Oic0VCkFA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1126" style="width: 554px;height: 344px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">* </span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong>北</strong><strong>方五大区域中心城市:整体吸金能力不足,但保持相对稳定</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">,最强的天津增量占比才1%,比郑州还弱一些;从变化趋势看,保持相对稳定,其中太原、大连小幅走强,长春、石家庄小幅走弱。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="554" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="338" data-ratio="0.6099290780141844" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxtCpH2BF5RNgc5kVwtOAcv5X0LEt3Y6G77B4VZqqibu5v1LLt6JVANCDROS7SDHwfTSqQQoU0fx8g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1128" style="width: 554px;height: 338px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">*</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"> <strong>南方六大区域中心/节点城市:有个共同的特点,吸金能力整体都小幅下降了,</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;">温州、佛山、长沙、南通等4个城市下降幅度较为明显。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;">这背后可能有三个原因——</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;">1)这些城市都是以制造业为主,金融属性相对弱,所以即使产业效益不错,资金也容易流入到旁边的金融中心城市,比如莞佛地区的资金,容易流入到深广;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;">2)去年因疫情原因信贷较为宽松,大量工业企业容易获得财政性金融支持,去年基数较高;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;">3)区域性弱省域中心的金融化仍处于初级阶段,国家整体的资金流动,仍以全国及区域金融中心为主,如长沙、福州。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="554" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="346" data-ratio="0.624780316344464" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxtCpH2BF5RNgc5kVwtOAcvwjCkWmBFnwP3kW9N4WuZKicDXtESV0B0Oc9icWbJaQgwxM9ThLC56WOA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1138" style="width: 554px;height: 346px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">最后,我们借助一张中国30城资金总量变化趋势地图做个小结,图示说明如下:</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">* 横轴是今年1-8月各城市本外币存款增量;</span></em></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">* 纵轴是今年1-8月各城市本外币存款增速;</span></em></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">* 气泡大小代表存款增量的全国占比;</span></em></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">* 核密度等高线代表不同城市的聚集度。</span></em></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="540" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="438" data-ratio="0.8123938879456706" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxtCpH2BF5RNgc5kVwtOAcvhpgyvz0He6xYmfK9wqSFrUu3ibwtaicpQ1I4CnKRibxA2ZbMPnU6ibENKA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1178" style="width: 540px;height: 439px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">整体上来看,资金的流动呈现不均衡性非常强,通常我们看GDP,小城市因为基数小所以增速还不错,但从30城的资金总量聚集度来看,左下角的城市聚集的最多,体量相对小的城市,增速也不行。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">最终,我们观察到的今年资金流动情况小结如下:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">1、北京、上海已经抛离深圳、广州,一强一弱,存款和增量都不是一个量级;</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">2、长三角城市群南京走强,杭州走弱,南京有望成为下一个核心增长点;</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">3、成渝成为中国第四极不仅仅是规划,钱也已经到位了,郑州表现异常突出;</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">4、不仅仅是北方城市衰落,南方非中心城市吸金能力也不行,金融只是少数城市参与的游戏。</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">最后说明下,本数据需要动态监测,特别是在当下供给侧通胀的大环境下,各种能源价格飞涨,而成品价格相对稳定,等同下游企业利润被稀释,上游企业利润极其丰厚。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">四季度对制造型城市、能源型城市的资金是个巨大的冲击,有可能发生颠覆性的结构演变,因为自从2008年以来,挖煤、挖矿、炼钢的一直处于下行期,结合全球能源危机来看,当下有可能是个长期拐点。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: 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