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聊聊1月社融的钱去哪了

发布于 2022-02-11

<section style="text-align: center;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="121" data-backw="370" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="390" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="575" data-ratio="1.5197740112994351" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwVOaA7FAucfGlibkoEcfqDjjlI7IymK65uUkxYZTeb3HrX4X4enfbMbk1VDeR2ib2q7IwGOTuSq0xA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="354" style="white-space: normal;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);text-indent: 36px;width: 160px;visibility: visible !important;height: 243px;" /></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">昨晚央行公布2022年1月的社融数据,原文如下:</span></section><section style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5642633228840125" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyaiapm0DkuwBK7JbvctvmjbTEawcrLR0u9o6fCxyCUJx144IZEIkqvdRwJOjiauCrU6D8wCicibBd2BQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1276" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;"></span><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;margin-left: 0px;margin-right: 0px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">最值得关注的是,&nbsp;2022年1月社会融资规模增量达到6.17万亿元,其中人民币贷款增加3.98万亿,为</span><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">历史单月统计高点</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 华文仿宋;">。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6651270207852193" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyaiapm0DkuwBK7JbvctvmjbBiaAk9VcgsRAdf2QgWkFbxqoQfPzRvqqSicDLnAJ1y63TfJ1dozaxSIQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2165" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;"></span><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">作为地产人,对此习惯性的解读是放水了,楼市要起飞了。但细看市场数据,本人表示怀疑:地产龙头万科1月销售下滑超50%&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">近年来最大降幅</span></strong><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family:华文仿宋;">。</span></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">各</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">头部房企陆续公布</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">1月份的销售数据,万科首月销售同比降50.19%、碧桂园icon降9.8%、融创降20.6%、金地降38.36%、旭辉降47.9%、融信降47%、宝龙降30.5%、德信降37.5%、花样年降77.8%。</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">对于房地产销售下滑,其实市场早有预料的,不过下滑这么大还是有点意外。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">一增一减</span></strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">,都有可能是历史极限值(统计局官方1月房地产销售数据未公布),郑老板在禾略群里问过:</span><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">这么多钱,都去哪了?</span></strong></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family:华文仿宋;"><br /></span></span></strong></section><section style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.656934306569343" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyaiapm0DkuwBK7JbvctvmjbrIsZterXiaM0YUQcZ0MZIic902oGFlNtRMAX4LZhNdQoO2EHPUd49wyA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2192" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-align: left;text-indent: 32px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-align: left;text-indent: 32px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">我表示很好奇,直观感觉是钱去了大基建。虽然我是老韭菜,不炒股了,但我对股市常有关注。</span><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">股市对资金的流通最敏感,而且是带有预期性质的超前反应,</span></strong><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-align: left;text-indent: 32px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">最明显的体感是:</span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-align: left;text-indent: 32px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">新能源龙头:</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">宁德时代,近期回调</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">3</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">0%+</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">;</span></section></li><li><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">医药龙头:</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">药明康德,近期回调</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">7</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">0%+</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">;</span></section></li><li><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">基建龙头:</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">中国交建,近期上涨</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">5</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">0%+</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">;</span></section></li><li><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">煤炭龙头:</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">中国神华,近期上涨</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">30%+</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"></span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"></span></section></li></ul><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-align: left;text-indent: 32px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">当然,看今年行业股市排行会比较明显。</span><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.87248322147651" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyaiapm0DkuwBK7JbvctvmjbruDrS8ntn9BZcs6SKic2UWywIwbzou9bgQ8SDvzsheTx27QP3cQfJpw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1192" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">概括</span><span style="font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;HelveticaNeue&quot;,&quot;PingFangSC&quot;,&quot;HiraginoSansGB&quot;,&quot;MicrosoftYaHeiUI&quot;,&quot;MicrosoftYaHei&quot;,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:15px;letter-spacing:0.5440000295639038px;">地</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">说,1月股市最明显</span></span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">的体现是:</span><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">新经济哑火、旧经济复燃</span></strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">。接下来如何发展,作为老韭菜就不过多预判。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">当然,回答问题不能用直觉,还是要看数据,看细分结构数据,而不是看总量。全国经济都进入低增长周期,意味着不能同步快增长,你有我有大家有的时代已过去,</span><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">快慢分化是常态</span></strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">,数据角度就是看结构。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">我从官方网站把1月的细节数据</span><span style="font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;HelveticaNeue&quot;,&quot;PingFangSC&quot;,&quot;HiraginoSansGB&quot;,&quot;MicrosoftYaHeiUI&quot;,&quot;MicrosoftYaHei&quot;,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:15px;letter-spacing:0.5440000295639038px;">爬</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">了下来,做</span></span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">了个统计表:</span></section><section style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.3171875" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyaiapm0DkuwBK7JbvctvmjbffVB5feFe9ic7RqEokMlialEHJuZmZw2uFFMYIia7ibcPiaSibYAlw7VIibtw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2560" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;"></span><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">先说下初步结论,1月融资的钱增长迅猛核心来自</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">于</span><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">政府债券</span></strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">。看指标明细,可以知道社会融资的构成除了熟知的贷款,还有债券、股票发行等。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">这里简要说明一下数据统计过程,此表的社融都是增量,而不是存量,指的是1月份新增的各类贷款融资数据,</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">为了体现变化,上图针对去年1月的数据进行对比,用增量、增速两个视角,综合评估得分并排名。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">综合来看,政府债券增量高达</span><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">6026亿元</span></strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">,比去年同期多3589亿,占总体增量的</span><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">37.30%</span></strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">(仅次于实体经济,主要是实体经济体量大,暂未没有公布明细),增速上也高达</span><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">147%</span></strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">(仅次于委托贷款,主要因素是体量基数小),综合来看,政府债券评分高达</span><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">0.137</span></strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">,远远超过其他细项,所以</span><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">政府大力发债是上月社融创新高</span></strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">的核心原因,跟房地产貌似关系不大。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">那哪个政府发债很猛呢?中央还是地方?</span></strong></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family:华文仿宋;"><br /></span></span></strong></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">毕竟用途差异非常大,国债顾名思义就是国家层面的债务。在历史周期,主要用于战争,如美国南北战争发行债券:美利坚联盟国是自1861年至1865年因美国内战而建立的短暂政权,本张债券募集资金用于美国南北战争。网上看到一张图,挺有意思,一同与各位分享:</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.48046875" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyaiapm0DkuwBK7JbvctvmjbKFrkCjETibvxVwg5rR66IElO0AFclswbA62XkXJkncyibXR0MaWXNZhQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2560" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;"></span><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">到了现代,更多是为了维持经济的稳定发展或保障民生,如去年美联储的量化宽松,本质是一种扩大国债的行为,还有是为了举办重大赛事等,如日本举办东京奥运会使得国家债务重重。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">眼下讨论最多的是美国巨额国债是否可以维持的问题?是否会跟希腊一样引发债务危机。根据美国财政部2月1日公布的数据,美国国债总额首破30万亿美元,相比于2021年GDP16.9万亿的水平,已经达到惊人的1.77倍。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">达里奥一直担忧量化宽松后美国的债务危机问题,在新书中用500年的尺度分析技术变迁才是经济发展的本源,债务最终还是大概率会引发危机,这也听说他老人家一直在做空。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">不同于美国、日本等发达国家,我国中央财政一直保持相对健康的状态,而地方财政一直亏空,一方面通过发债,另一方面通过转移支付来解决此问题。下图可以看出</span><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">我国中央和地方财政“强干弱支”</span></strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">的状况:</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6015037593984962" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyaiapm0DkuwBK7JbvctvmjbQF2MY88kX5E05EpdWyibnyFsK1VicYicBFG9yqkctU2qLJMbCEDhg89ZA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2394" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-indent: 0em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-indent: 0em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">以上简单针对背景分析,</span><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">到底1月份地方债券情况如何呢?</span></strong><span style="text-indent: 0em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">我同样制作了一张表格:&nbsp;</span><br /><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.108203125" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyaiapm0DkuwBK7Jbvctvmjbvrm2zIRuRjXjg4b3SHsiaRdjZgN4VgJibMpfpMO1rBZUNTvuv4PtQHLw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2560" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;"></span><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">2022年1月地方政府债券共发行</span><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">6989亿</span></strong><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family:华文仿宋;">(</span></span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">来源Wind统计数据,非官方网站数据),跟前面的政府债券比还多900多亿。若数据统计准确,基本可以理解为中央政府的赎回,但基本可确定上面的政府债券基本都是地方政府主导,同比增加</span><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">92.91%</span></strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">,占据了变化总量的</span><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">34.98%</span></strong><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family:华文仿宋;">。</span></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family:华文仿宋;"><br /></span></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">于此,我们可以得出一个结论:</span><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">1月社融大规模增长核心来源于地方政府发债。</span></strong></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">海通证券9日研报:2022年1月至2月8日,地方政府债共发行177只,总规模达7325.33亿元。其中山东和福建省均发行19只,成为发行数量最多的地区。同时,广东省发行债券共计规模1165.59亿元,发行规模位居全国第一。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">那地方政府发债具体干啥呢?</span></strong></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);"><br /></span></strong></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.4275" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyaiapm0DkuwBK7JbvctvmjbWiba30kIegV9vu6egbJy20J5suGf49FvG3hDO5TbzHbVw9riaJoENFBw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="800" style="width: 467px;height: 200px;" /></p><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">从用途来看,用于城乡、市政和产业园区基建的专项债占比最大,达42.2%;交通基础设施建设为第二大用途,占比18.3%,其次为民生服务与社会事业以及棚户改造,占比分别为16.0%和10.7%,其余部分投向农林水利、老旧小区改造、乡村振兴等领域。</span><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">重视基建投资的宏观布局,建设“美好城乡”</span></strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">,我想这是一开始“旧经济”股市行情表现不错的原因。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">那跟房地产有啥关系呢?</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">我认为短期影响很有限。长期配套因子及居住环境的提升,即所谓的土地价值提高,跟之前的差别在于:以前是城市,且更多是中心区,</span><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">现在是城乡,从局部到整体</span></strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">本人过</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">年回江西老家对此感触颇深,道路建设、新农村建设的全力开干。具体来说,我司郑老板总结了以下2条跟房地产开发相关的</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">信息:</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">1. 保障性住房抢刚需市场客户;</span></strong></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">2. 城市更新加电梯就是抢首改市场客户。</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 56px;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family:华文仿宋;"></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 56px;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family:华文仿宋;"><br /></span></span></strong></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">禾略虎年群小胡同学作出补充:</span><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">关注城市改善类、城市近郊康养服务类产品,刚需类产品未来存量去化会比较难</span></strong><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family:华文仿宋;">。</span></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: 华文仿宋;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family:华文仿宋;"><br /></span></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">最后,我在这班门弄斧做个小结:</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">房地产开发伴随着城市化规模红利的消失已经出现周期性衰退,但周期性衰退并不意味着市场持续低迷甚至陷入大萧条。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">根据熊彼特商业周期理论,</span><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">市场每一次陷入萧条,就意味着企业家拥有创造新供给的机会</span></strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">当前第一步</span><span style="font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;HelveticaNeue&quot;,&quot;PingFangSC&quot;,&quot;HiraginoSansGB&quot;,&quot;MicrosoftYaHeiUI&quot;,&quot;MicrosoftYaHei&quot;,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:15px;letter-spacing:0.5440000295639038px;">是</span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">从标准化及功利化的90平小三房走出来,从需求驱动到供给创造,市场的复苏及繁荣即将到来,这一过程的动力,他称之为企业家的</span><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);">“创造性破坏”</span></strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(171, 25, 66);"></span></strong><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">可惜的是,多数人无法忍受市场衰退带来的痛苦与煎熬。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);white-space: normal;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><p><br /></p><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="93069" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" data-color="#757576" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;border: 0px none;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86134" data-color="#757576" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: red;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;-&nbsp; 小程序 -&nbsp;</span><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;·</span><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">「禾略问答」</span><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">·</span></section><p style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><a class="weapp_image_link" data-miniprogram-appid="wxf051804df9944e68" data-miniprogram-path="pages/index/index" data-miniprogram-nickname="禾略问答" data-miniprogram-type="image" data-miniprogram-servicetype="" wah-hotarea="click" style="outline: 0px;cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;-webkit-user-select: none;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;" href="" href=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.33830455259026687" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxgXqtJ7x2ATMbtIm1oBmTM5cLtzxaHKiaJINP1DiaedwSS8oUuQadhFxpcXZiaWxTvWyWxXichXeiaGHw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1274" style="outline: 0px;border: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;width: 677px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></a></p><section 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data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" width="50px" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwaUyIuHQngl5c5PD5uQEXrh3UfLLLmbNNIYHsl0uM1fFRJCOicUgwgiaAoBNbUmeBiahGEFZBm9uXAw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: none 0px !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box 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