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茶饮狂飙32%!蜜雪古茗万店狂奔VS免税寒冬​

发布于 2025-09-10

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">以下是东吴证券《社服板块2025H1中报总结:萌芽中的“新消费”》研究报告的核心内容总结:</span></span></span></span></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="pD3lutqrO5" style="" data-dir-key="pD3lutqrO5"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">一、行业整体表现</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">营收与利润分化显著</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">高增长板块</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:茶饮(营收+32%)、教育(+17%)、OTA旅游(+12%)、人力资源服务(+52%)表现亮眼。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">承压板块</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:免税(营收-6%)、景区(+5%)、餐饮(+2%)增速疲软,免税龙头营业利润下滑27%(剔除珠免地产计提影响)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">现金流改善</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:茶饮(经营性现金流+42%)、酒店/餐饮由负转正。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">消费趋势变化</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">消费降级</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:服务业普遍“以价换量”,客单价承压(如离岛免税客单价下滑、酒店RevPAR降4-6%)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">线上化加速</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:外卖大战推动餐饮线上化率突破30%,线上线下融合加深。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="_H6FVJHmrz" style="" data-dir-key="_H6FVJHmrz"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">二、细分板块关键数据</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><h4 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="XCKoFtVANn" style="" data-dir-key="XCKoFtVANn"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">1. 免税</span></span></strong></span></span></h4><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">离岛免税</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:购物人次增长但渗透率降至10-15%,客单价同比下滑,连带率走低。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">口岸免税</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:民航出入境人次+21%,但单客消费下滑。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">上市公司</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:中免Q2环比改善,王府井受闭店拖累加速下滑,珠免整合后减亏。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h4 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="tLkSB3sJK0" style="" data-dir-key="tLkSB3sJK0"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2. 酒店</span></span></strong></span></span></h4><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">量价结构</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:房量增6-9%,经济型酒店RevPAR率先转正(+0.3%),中高端承压(-4%至-6%)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">龙头表现</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:亚朵(房量+26%)、华住(+18%)领跑;直营模式占比高的企业(如君亭直营占比81%)压力较大。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100045473" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmm3ibAe2R1DZgqjlkMI6b9axNJkM4IK9VTsBJ0yHphKC0zgvUIY9HFT3rQch0y7GticVQ0qp1KhAOA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h4 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="BHlzw16hVm" style="" data-dir-key="BHlzw16hVm"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">3. 旅游与景区</span></span></strong></span></span></h4><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">出行需求</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:长途出行降速(铁路/民航客运量增速降至5-10%),短途文旅旺盛(国内出游人次+20.6%)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100045474" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmm3ibAe2R1DZgqjlkMI6b9aMEsOlQ5aGDPMuQtFibTnUGZrmrDO0j0CjErJDeUhRawB7NGuXG9KeYA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section><figure></figure><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">景区分化</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:祥源文旅(并购驱动)、九华旅游(交通改善)收入领先,丽江/黄山利润受天气拖累下滑。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100045475" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmm3ibAe2R1DZgqjlkMI6b9aWU88XHEdxYmkxeu8XDlYN4ZiaxbBrk1xXSCoI6GovAKpticHg2PgFr8A/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h4 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="vZ_l1qR-1a" style="" data-dir-key="vZ_l1qR-1a"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">4. 餐饮</span></span></strong></span></span></h4><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">供给回补</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:北上广江浙门店数环比+5.6%(Q1为-5.7%)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">经营分化</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:外卖占比高的平价餐饮(小菜园、绿茶)同店改善,火锅品类承压;小菜园/绿茶净利率达14.1%/10.2%。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100045476" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmm3ibAe2R1DZgqjlkMI6b9aUq7yics8QWu7MsFibvIBP1Xn0FxsSHSADxDVBDibsZonNZI4AhBHicuqFA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section><figure></figure><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h4 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="aEPZelbI5y" style="" data-dir-key="aEPZelbI5y"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">5. 茶饮</span></span></strong></span></span></h4><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">高景气驱动</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:加盟扩张+外卖补贴,蜜雪(新开7721家)、古茗(净开1265家)、瑞幸(净开3842家)加速拓店。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">盈利提升</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:规模效应下净利率普遍改善(古茗+13.3pct至28.7%)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h4 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="uLp9bZDoMl" style="" data-dir-key="uLp9bZDoMl"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">6. 教育</span></span></strong></span></span></h4><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">需求旺盛</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:K12在校生基数稳增,公考报名人数5年CAGR达20%。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">AI赋能</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:粉笔、学大教育等布局AI个性化教学,提升服务效率(如粉笔研发投入1.08亿)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h4 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="krS4ODs2u_" style="" data-dir-key="krS4ODs2u_"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">7. 人力资源服务</span></span></strong></span></span></h4><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">市场分散化</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:服务机构数量增速高于服务人次,科锐国际收入增速领先。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100045477" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmm3ibAe2R1DZgqjlkMI6b9asHfjeib28c830c45UZicRxpZHNdeB43dWMUXeo8F1A5ibjc8CeE2iaY3uw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section><figure></figure><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">Boss直聘</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:净利率显著提升至27.9%(环比+3.7pct)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100045478" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmm3ibAe2R1DZgqjlkMI6b9a5KOS0reDn6teiayVc9eTlZ3TicOEYfcQwicbtm5sznia46icRceYt3X0PhQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="WzsreTQ-hA" style="" data-dir-key="WzsreTQ-hA"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">三、新兴趋势</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">服务业“新消费”萌芽</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">演唱会经济</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:票房增速40%,带动消费联动效应(1:4.8拉动比),青年群体参与度超45%。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100045479" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmm3ibAe2R1DZgqjlkMI6b9aU3CI6wRDMpTtAibSriabx8buiarEl0dpjjW3fynvYutuKYCPVpGWW3TXQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">冰雪经济</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:哈尔滨冰雪季旅游收入+16.6%,量价齐升。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">适老服务</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:养老机构、社区活动等老年消费需求显现。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">提效逻辑深化</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">餐饮工业化</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:现炒中餐标准化提速(小菜园、绿茶千店规模验证),自动化设备降本增效。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">AI+教育</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:生成式AI实现个性化教学(如粉笔AI刷题系统),提升教师效率。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="cZEVlt2CId" style="" data-dir-key="cZEVlt2CId"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">四、投资建议</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策受益</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:中国中免(免税企稳)、王府井、中烟香港。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">消费复苏弹性</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:首旅/锦江酒店、华住、蜜雪冰城、古茗、小菜园。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">AI+教育催化</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:粉笔。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">低估值修复</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:好孩子国际(PE 6x)、华夏控股(PE 10x)。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">文旅政策利好</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:丽江股份、峨眉山A、长白山、祥源文旅。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="828QqY17f5" style="" data-dir-key="828QqY17f5"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">五、风险提示</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">消费意愿修复不确定性</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:收入增长疲软抑制服务消费需求。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">成本刚性压力</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:人力/租金成本易涨难跌,挤压盈利空间。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">行业竞争加剧</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:茶饮、餐饮等赛道扩张过快可能引发价格战。</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="4"><li><span data-marker="4."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策与地缘风险</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:劳动保障政策趋严、汇率波动、国际局势扰动。</span></span></span></span></li></ol><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">报告核心结论</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:社服板块结构性机会凸显,茶饮、教育、人服等高增长赛道受益于新消费萌芽与提效逻辑,但需警惕免税、酒店等板块的短期压力及宏观不确定性。</span></span></span></span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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