见路不走 原创 已修改 第1次修改 2021年11月26日 14时07分

<section style="margin: 0pt 16px;text-indent: 0pt;line-height: normal;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-align: center;"><br /></section><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">背景</span><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;caret-color: transparent;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></strong><br style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">///</span></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px;text-align: justify;line-height: normal;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 21pt;"><span style="font-family:等线;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">致房地产和禾略的朋友们：</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2021年下半年以来，百强房地产企业都挺难，2022年或许还会更难，禾略的大部分客户都是百强房地产企业，自然也不容易。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这几天，对团队的每一位成员，做了一次一对一的沟通，从访谈结果来看，每个人都感受到了行业目前的困难，每个人都还愿意坚持下来，与此同时，每个人也对行业未来充满担忧和迷茫，即使熬过这一关，房地产行业及相关上下游企业目前的商业模式是否依然有效，有多少企业可以恢复过来？什么样的商业模式才能适应变化的新环境？</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这两个看似困扰的问题，在我看来却简单，正文我们再认认真真拿数据说话，这里先让我分享一位朋友的观察：</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">“我们小时候的玩乐，大多时候都是在一个相对广阔的空间中玩耍的，后来一切都变了——</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们开始被娱乐工具束缚在同一个地方，而且这个地方还越来越小，从小霸王到街机厅到台球室，再到去网吧包夜打游戏，再倒回自家打游戏，再到现在大家玩手游。表面上看起来，是有越来越多高科技的东西，服务于我们的娱乐需求，但是我们的娱乐空间本身，却在变得越来越狭窄，自由越来越小，受到的限制越来越大。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从一开始没有电就不能玩，到后面不但要有电还要有网，还要周六前交网费，还要能充得起皮肤，能买得起老婆。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">虚拟的世界越来越大，但我们在现实中的空间却越来越小，用来娱乐的科技确实更发达了，可是我们真的变得更快乐吗？还是说我们的快乐只是正在变得更廉价？</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">打游戏还算是相对高成本的娱乐，真正廉价的娱乐是在家里刷短视频，我妈过去还知道出去跳跳广场舞，知道跟人搓麻将，现在她就天天在家里刷短视频，网瘾老年。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">你想象一下，没有镜头的信息流在你的面前高速划过，屏幕里面有无数的俊男美女和花样百出的整活，你以为自己坐拥这一切，是一个皇帝，但其实消耗掉的只有带宽跟手机电量，你在被这些东西奴役，最终留下无尽的空虚。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这像什么？像不像是一台机器？白天在公司上班被压榨，晚上不运转的时候，只要用极低的成本就可以维护，在这个过程中也再被压榨出另一种价值。这是真正快乐吗？这是谁的快乐呢？</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">其实不止于娱乐方式，就连我们的整个生活方式，也正在变得越来越廉价，越来越标准化。</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">以前我们吃饭如果出去下馆子，还需要找一个实体的餐馆，但现在只需要打开外卖就能想点什么就点什么，正常情况下，不需要等很久饭菜就可以送上来。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">商业综合体里面，都是那些连锁店，全国各地的综合体似乎都是一个模子做出来的。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">不仅如此，以前饭店还需要一个后厨，现在大部分餐馆都开始用预制菜，有一个微波炉就能开饭店，甚至就连味道都开始趋同。品牌料理包都杀疯了，大家开的不是饭店，而是工厂，是作坊。甚至越是这种成本低的饭店就活得越好。黑料理包活得最好。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">不光饭店的后厨正在消失，我们居住的理念，也正在因为外卖而改变。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">短租可能不考虑，但以前的年轻人找长租房的时候，那是要有厨房的，因为你不可能有钱天天下馆子，只要不愿意放个屁都是康师傅跟统一的味道，你就只能想办法自己做饭。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">但现在这个需求消失了，租房的时候，只需要一张床跟WiFi就可以，不需要宽敞的客厅跟大电视，因为有手机短视频，还会有未来将要普及化的VR游戏，吸引力更强，杀时间能力更猛，进去了就不想出来，还要客厅干什么呢？</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">（小编不予苟同，做饭不只是刚需，也可以是乐趣）</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">况且你认为你还有朋友吗？另外也多说一下，现在年轻人加班加的这么厉害，住的地方真的只需要睡觉，我甚至都觉得胶囊公寓要不是有安全隐患，未来会是一个非常大的商业空间，这是吃住，跟玩再说行。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">以前你会希望自己有辆车，有个停车位，现在已经不需要，有网约车、共享单车就够了。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">严格来说，网约车、共享单车也不必要，因为很可能除了上班，你根本就不出门，你根本不需要现实中的社交，在网上社交就可以，微信加QQ就足够解决所有的熟人社交。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">至于陌生人社交，难道现在的交友软件还不够丰富吗？网络P图技术这么好，现实中一看都是歪瓜裂枣，我就是要活在滤镜里，你要是不喜欢，那我走。而且，就算是在现实中，再腼腆，再社恐的人，也可以在网上装成一个受欢迎的人。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">你可以想一想，你已经有多久没有在现实中，找朋友们聚一聚，大声欢笑？剧本杀这种体验极不稳定的东西为什么能火？因为现在的年轻人是真的孤独。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">现在大家看起来在网上一个个骚得不行，疯狂斗图，但其实面对面都不太会说话，就是一个沉默寡言、不善言辞的软弱男孩儿。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">自从几年前，头号玩家上映，一有空我就在家里用VR设备看一遍，哪怕是出差要在手机上看，最近我越看越觉得不是味道。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这是一个很恐怖的寓言故事，那里面的绿洲世界，迟早有一天会变成现实，而且只要技术成熟，短时间内，全人类99%以上都会进入虚拟现实，然后绝大多数时间都在里面，只有在需要进行现实中工作的时候才会离开，然后又会马上进去，又甚至于以后大家的工作都会在里面完成了。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">现在我们还留在现实里，是因为这些技术还不够成熟，设备太贵无法普及，技术太糙，虚拟世界不够美好，但如果有一天那样的绿洲，世界变成了现实，大家会怎么选呢，你想想。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">需要一个很低的就连流浪汉都能承受得起的价格，每个人都可以进入到一个完全能够以假乱真的虚拟世界里，这个世界逼真到足以欺骗你全部的感官，你在里面可以尽情的享受到你想要的一切，你可以成为一个你想成为的人，而这种享受因为成本低到只需要电量而极其廉价，你可以在里面得到快乐，然后把快乐加倍加倍，再加倍。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">再加上如果你刚好在现实中有那么一些不顺，你还有什么理由拒绝这样一个世界呢？</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">那些网游小说这么火，是不是也有这样的原因？另外我们刚才说到了孤独，那些聊天群体系的小说也这么火，到底是为什么呢？</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">迟早有一天，留在现实中的人才会变成异类，大多数人都投向虚拟的怀抱，把意识传到这个世界中，摆脱肉体的束缚，会变成一股席卷世界的潮流，血肉苦弱，机械飞升，而我们今天所熟悉的一切都会消失在这股浪潮里，就连我们自己都会被淹没，而这个世界将会变成另外一种陌生的样子，一个完美、快乐、高效率低成本的样子。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">一切都很好，除了它并不真实，并且完全掌握在虚拟世界背后的那个公司手里。什么狗屁互联网巨头，真巨头一定是做虚拟。而且他们甚至可以在后台操纵着定向删除人们的意识来解决潜在的危机。他们会是未来唯一的统治者。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我说，你讲的有道理，但这也只是你的一个猜测。未来有很多种可能性，我怀疑你这是一种骗投资人的话术。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">VR技术自从上世纪80年代初被提出来那一刻开始，就已经注定了是人类历史的唯一解，至少是最有可能实现的</span><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;">我说，你这话讲得既哲学又民科，是不是？你也看福山和福柯？</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;">他说：“不是，你知道马尔萨司的人口理论吗？马尔萨斯认为，人口的非线性增长和资源的线性增长之间的矛盾才是问题的终极原因。这不是一个经济学问题，也不是人口学问题，而是一个特别简单但特别残酷的数学问题。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;">根据马尔萨斯的计算，人类世界早就应该因为暴涨的人口压力而陷入饥饿和动荡了。虽然他算对了人口增长的速度，但没有算到人类中天命之子的存在，也没有算到。科技的进步，他们带来了一系列奇迹般的粮食增产，暂时解决了全世界的吃饭问题，但粮食技术飞跃带来的增产只是把问题延后，没有真正解决。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;">要长期解决马尔萨斯人口陷阱，只有两条路，要么是物质生产能力和人类生存空间变得无限大，也就是开源，那就是航天技术的大爆炸，打破光速魔咒，人类摆脱母星摇篮，走向星辰大海，开发无穷宇宙中的无尽恒星，那天边闪耀着都将是人类未来的家园。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;">但坦率地讲，这条路的难度极大，因为ROI算不过来，投入产出比不行，在航天军备竞赛结束以后基本已经断了希望。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;">你没发现人类的航天科技发展基本上已经停滞吗？锁死我们恰恰是市场和经济规律。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;">另外一条路，就是物质生产能力和人类生存空间增长不多，但是单个人类个体所消耗的资源和所占用的生存空间变得无限小，也就是所谓的节流。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;">这也就是我讲的VR技术预告的那个未来，而且离我们已经很近了，只需要技术上，再进行一段很小的突破，人类的娱乐需求跟社交需求，乃至除了维持人体循环生存以外的，都可以很简单地躺在维生舱里面，在虚拟世界中得到解决。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;">大家都躺进维生舱，都进入虚拟世界，生理需求都不跟繁衍后代挂钩了，陷阱不攻自破，甚至于某种程度上人类得到了永生。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;">这时候你想到了什么呢？人类一旦走向VR，想要再绕路走向星辰大海就很难了，甚至基本上可以说是无解，因为这条歧路上走得越远，想要掉头就越难，成本就越高。我不知道这是不是一条正确的路，但确实路走窄了，格局小了。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;">你别看现在的VR看起来很昂贵，而且还有这样那样的问题，但是在机械飞升这条道路上，技术一定会被慢慢进化，并且普及，成为廉价娱乐的核心载体。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;">十年前我们讲智能手机会颠覆一切，其实大家都不信，一切科技刚出来的时候都与魔法无异。三年前我们讲病毒会改变世界，也没有人会相信，但世界的改变从来没有人能够预测。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;">一旦到了我说的那个世界，不使用VR会变成少部分人彰显特权的方式，例如现在的高尔夫跟滑雪，我从出生起就没有用过VR，这将成为相亲市场上最有魅力的告白，因为只有足够有钱的人才能在现实中获取足够享受的物质资源，抵御住虚拟世界的诱惑。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;">你有没有听过那句话，有钱人都是玩真的。就好像现在表面上普通人也能在短视频里面看到世界的美好和不一样，但真正的有钱人负责去享受这些美好，顺便拍给普通人看，赚普通人的钱。”</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="caret-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">看完上面这一段，你是否和我一样，内心升腾起一股英雄般的热情，人类降生到地球，地球又是如此的美丽多姿，人和人共处又是如此的五彩斑斓，我们从事的工作，就是让地球家园更温暖，让人们的生活更幸福。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">如果未来的世界有越来越多廉价的、虚假的快乐，那么，就需要我们努力去创造更多独特的、真实的幸福。</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">房地产行业，是一个关于空间创造的行业，是一个关于幸福的行业，任何时候，都是朝阳行业，只要人类依然期待着太阳升起的新一天，这个行业就没有真正的天花板。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这个行业还很年轻，年轻就会犯错，但年轻就是无极限，在经历了高杠杆、高负债、短贷长投、金融化的泡沫虚假繁荣后，相信这个行业的所有人，都在重新思考行业未来的发展模式，一定会有更多优秀的企业涌现出来，这轮小型危机之后，那些首先实现数据驱动、科学决策、高效运营、以人为本、产品过硬的企业，还会继续创造新的传奇。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5433070866141733" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9uexaZmzpBIfoh73qb9ZbzicsCTStCrXPicIM0FMKX4GN8jM5Zla5UE63Aw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="3302" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">引言</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">几乎总是存在着一条你还没有发现的有利的道路，所以你需要不断找下去，直到找到它，而不是满足于最初对你显而易见的那种选择。</span></section><section style="text-align: right;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">——瑞 达利欧《原则》</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;<span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">///</span></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">回顾2021年的房地产市场表现，用峰回路转来形容是非常贴切了。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">还记得上半年的时候，还在跟甲方爸爸讨论第一批集中供地冲得这么猛咋算账的问题，下半年第三批集中供地，基本就没什么热度。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">近期各大房企争相暴雷，竞相开始节衣缩食，是不是像极了前两年双11后<span style="font-size: 14px;">的</span>你，买买买之后，就开始吃土之路。但问题是，今年的双11好像也不行。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">好像从三季度开始，整个行业哪儿都不行——拿钱拿不到了，投资没钱了，工程要烂尾了，项目不好卖了，回款周期长了。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">至暗时刻悄然而至，行业的动荡使得人人自危，此刻，作为一家有社会责任心，全心全意为甲方爸爸服务的企业，我们通过量化数据的研究，理性的来一波分析，给大家在黑暗中，打开一支手电筒，照一照前面的路。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">全篇文章我们主要表述的就是这3个问题：</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">1、房地产还能不能干</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">2、这一轮调整会持续到什么时候</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">3、未来会有什么样的机会</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">首先可以先分别说下结论：</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">1、非常能干。</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>整体行业的蛋糕依然在做大</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">，2021年1-10月商品房销售金额14.7万亿元，同比增长11.8%。占全国GDP的份额从2015年的12%增长至2020年的17%，去地产化越做越重。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2、</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>2022年5-6月是本轮调整的底部</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">，明年下半年环境会逐步好起来，扛过明年，2023年就是活下来的人的天下</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">3、</span><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">回归价值+把握需求+找对节奏</span></strong></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">01&nbsp;</span><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(117, 117, 118);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">@urasr</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;white-space: normal;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">房地产还能不能干</span></strong></span><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从历年商品房销售金额及价格来看，整体保持了增长的趋势，唯独2008年及2014年略有调整，预期2021年整体市场蛋糕依旧增长，会接近20万亿。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2019年11月29日在上海，我们举办了沙龙分享，当时的判断是16万亿不会是天花板，2020年的17万亿验证了这点，时至今日我们依旧认为，</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>这个行业的天花板还没有触及</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="382" data-ratio="0.7010968921389397" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ue1P1WUkO7onvzXb95zWxuCDh2rJsElrkwFpxMYFibiafaMA3qA3Z7crtQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1094" style="width: 546px;height: 383px;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">支撑体量增长的无非就是看有多少需求，我们从2个角度来预判需求，一个是城镇化水平，约等于</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>刚性住房需求</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">；一个是住宅满足度的水平，约等于</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>居住改善需求</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">当前全国城镇化率为63.9%，仍旧有5.1亿人口在农村，目前还是处于城市化加速阶段，城市化的提升，会带来新的需求引入，这一类属于刚性新增需求。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="502" data-backw="495" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="495" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="503" data-ratio="1.0154867256637168" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9uebnI8b1juE1dhaJkzY7bEBvBC4QoOaK9Xssy58IHge5oh1cYMU9gGKQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="452" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">根据预测，2020-2025年新增城市人口约为1851万人/年，假设人均住房面积39.8平/人，新增住房需求面积为7.36亿/平/年，相当于</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>2020年住宅销售总量的48.61%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">，即外来刚需规模比例。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">在这个阶段得到的结果就是，抢占了三四线城市的恒大及碧桂园的销售规模快速提升，融创则把握了中西部区域崛起的机会等等。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="200" data-ratio="0.3668161434977579" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9uemHqDOic8ZkjzUOdLINS0jWaGxuAxoeTZbIWSRdjicTrq5siaYBx0cSGWg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1115" style="width: 546px;height: 200px;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从住宅满足度的角度来看，首先可以关注大家手头上的房子，跟美国及日本相比来看，我国目前的人均商品住宅拥有率很低，</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>仅58%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">，是对标国家的一半，也就是还有42%的人没有住上商品房，居住的房屋品质有待商榷。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="394" data-backw="546" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="394" data-ratio="0.7223618090452262" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueO5yxpUueBX4cO1aH8Ydf8KAMrv8PGZrqA9ZB9FFWicG9Y3XgXjhDd3A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="796" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">把时间轴拉长，从1988年起，累计的商品房销售面积为204.37亿平米，如果全国城镇人口，都住上商品房的话，则需要358.99亿平米，当中还有154.62亿平米的缺口，光这个缺口，可以</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>支撑10年的销售体量</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.3140794223826715" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9uelTvz54AHGWo5OZia8weiaUEwEX9Hrt23VAEiax3JrwxbEQnooIBsJtakA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="width:553.739990234375px;height:173.94000244140625px;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">综合来看，不管是农村到城镇的刚性需求，还是住上商品房的改善需求，对整个行业发展均有所支撑。</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>蛋糕还是会在那里，并且还会不断被做大，最后回归到是谁来做，在什么时候，去哪里的结构性问题</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;text-indent: 0em;caret-color: transparent;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;text-indent: 0em;caret-color: transparent;">首先在这个部分，我们想尝试看看谁来做的问题，即目前各类规模的房地销售水平及投资态度如何。</span><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;text-indent: 0em;caret-color: transparent;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">不管是参照美国来看，还是从2018年开始来看，头部TOP10房企的市占比例基本稳定在28%左右，并且按照规模划分来看，销售规模冲的最猛的是500-1000亿及200-300亿的房企。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">所以在这个降负债去杠杆的节骨眼上，</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>对资金状况还不错的中小规模房企来说，有弯道超车的机会</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="331" data-backw="546" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="331" data-ratio="0.6067677946324388" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9uep4TsBibf4aJJzZ0QA1FAicX7BsCYst3seorPya93Vvzgzk3kOg7xwmUA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="857" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="332" data-ratio="0.6094420600858369" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ue7zYgQ5jj74WZk63UxXOzf4MRs72EjnIFeAjV3dDff3Hb34moZbZicqQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="699" style="width: 546px;height: 333px;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2020年百强房企各梯队销售金额入榜门槛持续提升。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">TOP10和TOP30房企操盘金额门槛分别提升19.3%和13.0%；</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">TOP50房企竞争格局加剧，金额门槛860亿元，同比增幅达14.5%；</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">TOP100房企操盘金额门槛也同比增长15.1%</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="407" data-ratio="0.7455012853470437" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9uep4SWnwArgJo6yolrLibCgl68HLyicLlnXPtqEyw6hlpyqo55m0tmO2Eg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="778" style="width: 546px;height: 407px;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">拿地规模方面，头部房企投资拿地保持谨慎；TOP30-100的企业加速布局，为“活下去”加杠杆获地，风险与机遇并存。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="304" data-backw="496" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="495" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="304" data-ratio="0.6125" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueDjjwByUkFtYHGQZDJI89yPtaCnWXXiciaVT5NchBK6voB7Kq37kcPAcg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="640" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从投销比的角度来看，企业分化会更加明显，在整体百强房企投销比下降，投资收缩的背景下，TOP50-100的房企投销比不降反升，加大投入，搏个未来。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="422" data-ratio="0.7722772277227723" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ue95FTia6ytrZLCy0Fc0DJoQibpAf81L1WicicrNjfU8W5wPZC6avkeaTwYw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="808" style="width: 546px;height: 422px;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">所以房地产能不能干？</span></strong></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">当然可以，市场规模有增长，预期需求有基础，冲就完事儿了。</span></strong></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">谁迎来了发展机会？</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">很可能是能够做下沉的区域型企业，200-500亿规模，有资金沉淀且杠杆不高，对土地价值把握的更加准确，抓住农村刚需+城镇改善的机会，实现弯道超车，恒大这个搅局的巨人都已经把路让出来了，这还不冲一波？</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">02&nbsp;</span><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(117, 117, 118);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">@urasr</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;white-space: normal;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">这一轮调整会持续到什么时候</span></strong></span><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;2.1货币经济层面</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">社会上有多少钱？</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">整体M1，M2增速走势均处在较低的水平，M1在2021年11月触底，预期在2022年1季度会有一波回暖，在6月份进入阶段性的底部，接下来增速平稳上升，基本意味着钱紧的状态在</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>2022年6月</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">会得到一些缓和。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="418" data-ratio="0.7665198237885462" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ue87gdxZ6TOribqicjPbgjQMhT14of9kibGOD91DE4eVIgMjAfh6L6ugaag/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="908" style="width: 546px;height: 419px;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">大家对钱的需求如何？</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">社融反映实体经济的资金需求，M2代表资金供给。社融及M2在近2个月增速企稳，结束了此前持续下行的态势，社融同比增速-M2同比增速的差值收窄，实体经济融资需求下降。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="1" data-cropsely2="429" data-ratio="0.7845968712394705" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueoR15gXRkibXZNspscKta0jNn8eVhbNjz7j26orFXB1xVXH7KXlDLYYg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="831" style="width: 546px;height: 428px;" /><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;text-indent: 0em;caret-color: transparent;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>借钱的代价怎么样？</strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;text-indent: 0em;caret-color: transparent;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">房地产的相关利率在提升，流入地产的钱在逐步减少，2020年6月开始，大量的钱流入产业里面去。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从这个角度来看，这波房地产去杠杆挤泡沫已经接近尾声，当然，底部往往是最黑暗寒冷的时候，要挺住，要乐观，不要倒在黎明前。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="324" data-ratio="0.5939278937381404" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9uezYicEPVtzVwFaxylAykxbjVvXvLuuIwT95nqhOSvl9B06IvLdcEHbXA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1054" style="width: 546px;height: 324px;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">居民贷款规模在什么水平？</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">目前房地产累计的金融风险比较大，近十年贷款累计增速的均值是25%，金融杠杆是整个行业增长的主要推手，2018年开始走上去杠杆之路，</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>在2020年逐步回归合理水平。</strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="166" data-backw="275" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="273" data-cropsely1="1" data-cropsely2="167" data-ratio="0.6041666666666666" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueVENeIX5kHdX2pP1r3tC0JkgAYdZyIsk4aNZMWE06cJvdSjCKt9pCpw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="576" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="246" data-backw="260" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="260" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="245" data-ratio="0.9441117764471058" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9uejwKmaZEKRASu404TrhhmrWiaaibbBdgdqIqNWZds6ibhr81ibPD5kBdEZg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="501" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;">2.2房地产市场层面</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">市场规模：</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">短期波动来看（3个月移动平均）：2021年10月增速接近于2008年底，市场整体下探趋势明显</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">长期波动来看（18个月移动平均）：</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>2021年6月是近期的市场高位</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">，目前已经进入下降阶段，对比2008年的下降周期来看，至少需要1年时间筑底，即预期2022年6月可能是市场底部</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="242" data-ratio="0.44422827496757455" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueLyeTiasPkucHUIqQg19Jq7icbayHfFe5poHScsPSUliaS9etVefCkvfQg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1542" style="width: 546px;height: 243px;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">市场泡沫：</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">泡沫的产生不在于实际值之间的对比，而需要看关注的指标跑得是不是一样快，所以我们统一用增速来研判泡沫水平。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br />2018-2020年房价收入增速比超过1.2，这是出于泡沫化的阶段，2021年这个指标是1.07，接近1，处于合理区间，近几年</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>市场房价虽然持续上涨，但收入上涨速度更快，从数据来看，楼市去泡沫还是卓有成效。</strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="150" data-backw="264" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="310" data-ratio="0.5657439446366782" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueicv3n2icDDH8SYaKNY6OZtQdWqjl5qMgPOzCbc4icZJj09SWPzRItknXA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" style="width: 548px;height: 310px;" data-w="" /><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="230" data-backw="261" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="261" data-cropsely1="1" data-cropsely2="231" data-ratio="0.8807692307692307" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueNjrHLxlnWX84SsXqUCLciaicvZz8YZSJW7sdMHibyEKOE398j3tcQJcCQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="520" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">市场周期：</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">讲周期之前，我们有必要先来给大家一个回顾。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">在2021年1月禾略发布了《2021年第一个PPT》系列，其中预测2021年，市场将经历冲高及回落的阶段（<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649834619&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=a53b2b10d5c583a434b788e34df49cc9&amp;chksm=835105a4b4268cb2f6ba24b9ae75d38c4557d113643fc87be68017aded8ea5483040cd7e0781&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="具体文章链接" linktype="text" imgurl="" imgdata="null" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2">具体文章链接</a>），在2021年11月，我们回顾今年全国房价的走势，基本验证了年初做的预测。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="364" data-ratio="0.6656017039403621" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueJHSia1cIibFrVDaAGVzvGBf3bpUewtpb6MyicD38g7e2UraTf1g4uWqfg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="939" style="width: 547px;height: 364px;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="357" data-ratio="0.6530612244897959" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueVMTLcicD7t84kGnDZyWoXGjyhHYsKvV4AFEaX18Icj6DEibFRABOe2Kw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="931" style="width: 547px;height: 357px;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">用同样的方法，同样的数据源，再进行预测。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">模型告诉我们这一轮周期的底部会是在</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>2022年5月</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">，之后会开始回暖，</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>2023年1月</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">开始，会正式进入市场火爆阶段，2023年9月又会出现阶段性高位。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="179" data-ratio="0.32904263877715206" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueEN7eWZRqLDiaaSgdlDSLA1A3pBrqpyu9H11LFaF07MEicrrQBo4Ydf4A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1243" style="width: 546px;height: 180px;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">市场结构：</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">城市结构：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从2021年6月的市场高位至2021年10月，涨跌城市各半，微跌及微涨的城市占比高，其中仍旧有</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>42.5%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">的城市房价微涨。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br />预期未来一年房价增速将有所回升，全国</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>近8成</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">城市价格进入微涨及小涨阶段。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">虽然现在行业内悲观情绪蔓延，但从数据预测来看，这只是一次正常的市场周期调整，之所以风声鹤唳，问题可能还是出在房地产企业自己身上。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="350" data-backw="546" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="350" data-ratio="0.6417177914110429" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9uepbTicQU80OcFA5MEXblIKP58TzicxQoFzCaSeEowL1Qbak1nicE3aOiaoA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="815" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">距离2021年6月的市场高位，一线城市价格下跌城市占比高，会对我们判断市场的走势产生放大影响，但</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>二三线城市仍以价增长的城市居多</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br />预期未来1年，价格增长的城市占比会有所提升，其中</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>一线城市及四五线城市提升会比较明显</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="286" data-backw="449" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="349" data-ratio="0.6391382405745063" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9uey9vqg5FpJhIcZTpia9ISkLpwfZ9hnbbY0fAxVxY15tUqlGbzOKWappA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="557" style="width: 546px;height: 349px;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">空间结构：</span></strong></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2017-2018：成渝+长江中游+山东半岛+关中，涨</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2018-2019：中部地区+云南<span style="font-size: 14px;">，涨</span></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2019-2020：长三角+西北<span style="font-size: 14px;">，涨</span></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="274" data-backw="378" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="1" data-cropsely2="396" data-ratio="0.7242152466367713" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ue05831bWl7iaCH72xed8bZZ3fZia0wUialxABDIbnPkx44GrZBDMicIZtYQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="446" style="width: 546px;height: 395px;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="274" data-backw="381" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="393" data-ratio="0.7213483146067415" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ue27I1ycVMejEThliaJfQWP13QmjZdHXKiasg6ujctia4DROc1YNmxhlB7A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="445" style="width: 546px;height: 394px;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="274" data-backw="381" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="393" data-ratio="0.7213483146067415" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ue1X8MzZ20hXslxCQrq8BHgFXrVvB4fxUMcOuh0BE9XcGV10QDicWSmvQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="445" style="width: 546px;height: 394px;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2021年10月至2022年10月预测房价涨幅如下图，大部分城市处于微涨阶段（房价增幅0%-5%），其中暴涨的有西双版纳、泉州、东莞及马鞍山。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="158" data-backw="427" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="426" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="158" data-ratio="0.3696369636963696" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9uekq0q8bX7lEvZl1gLE0YMu3e8jGC8CeGiaB8VpY9icoZlHyUxC8ypITNA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="606" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="318" data-backw="432" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="432" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="317" data-ratio="0.734860883797054" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9uehDFHhcbyElDt0IVfK6XnGVqQteUZSD0FmiaynY8VAhHCo0ibWqLcO2AA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="611" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">所以这一轮调整会到什么时候？</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">大概率资金及市场整体层面，会在2022年5-6月份触底，</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">完全恢复的阶段可能会在2023年，</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong style="text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2022年正是做加大土地储备的窗口期</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong style="text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">，假如你有资金的话。</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong style="text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">从2021年6月高位至今来看，结构性的分化还是比较明显，二三线城市依旧保持不错的增长势头，预期未来四五线城市中，止跌回升的占比高</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">，</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">能不能抓住这波机会，一看胆够不够肥，二看料够不够足。</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">03&nbsp;</span><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;color: rgb(117, 117, 118);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">@urasr</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.5px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—</span></strong></section></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">未来会有什么样的机会</span></strong></span><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">第一部分我们论述了房地产历史的发展变化及未来的需求容量，表述了城镇化刚性需求，商品房改善需求还有支撑，房地产还可以大干一番的结论。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">第二部分则表达了在目前去杠杆、去泡沫的、房住不炒的主流政策趋势下，未来在2022年年中会看到转机。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">综上，我们初步尝试总结了未来战略输出需要做的基本3大动作：</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">1、</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>回归价值</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">：去杠杆+去泡沫+房住不炒是背景，那么未来我们是不是需要回归价值，找到真正价值提升的城市去发展</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2、</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>把握需求</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">：城镇化刚性需求，商品房改善需求还有支撑，即找到购房需求充足的区域，关注不同的需求结构</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">3、</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>找对节奏</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">：找到未来有转机，市场发展趋势持续向好的地方</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">回归价值</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">全国288城市2020年的城市价值排序如下，因为是采用定量数据打分，所以也会有预测，可以重点关注价值提升大的城市</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="256" data-ratio="0.4693572496263079" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueUakic0eHvicDHZibUXtWQXPHP9micaXObQWbGKKf3sOmkz1BBvQDZQib72w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1338" style="width: 546px;height: 256px;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">强二线关注：东莞、西安</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">二线关注：厦门、无锡、宁波、合肥、佛山</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">三线关注：嘉兴、赣州、石家庄、珠海、徐州、绍兴、盐城、太原、金华、常州、南昌、唐山</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="273" data-ratio="0.5" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueiayCaVmHT3Se2xZhP8nccKZjibasXOfeibiaSE39zgVms8yNhscTX3eibSA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1212" style="width: 546px;height: 273px;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">四线城市中建议关注价值排名变化靠前的城市，空间上集中在云贵、川渝和皖赣闽</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="298" data-backw="470" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="1" data-cropsely2="347" data-ratio="0.6347826086956522" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueib0qsZ9ATFH6WGicR37UtOgPMWjjibiczwzYBU6kDNuD7FODlRgugZ86KQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="920" style="width: 546px;height: 347px;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">五线城市中价值排名提升的城市主要集中在西北和西南区域</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="312" data-backw="472" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="472" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="312" data-ratio="0.6608122941822173" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9uedG70Jbicq7psmDxWBeaGibS4iaL4eWExwt6pzFnGZ7owvyqaaD3icwUu7A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="911" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">把握需求</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">把握需求需要拆分为2步，首先得去到有需求的地方去，这个层面我们仍可以继续拆解，一为</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>人口密度大的区域</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">，二为</span><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">适龄购房人口有规模的区域。</span></strong></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从人口密度的现状来看，长三角、大湾区、山东以及河南都是人口较为集中的区域，在这边做开发，不缺需求。另外像成渝已经处于人口聚集雏形，是未来能够出量的地方。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">还有一些区域型的中心，比方说乌鲁木齐和东三省的省会，空间上呈现的是单中心，对于这些区域，做房地产还是需要聚焦核心或者核心区域周边。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 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o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="1" data-cropsely2="209" data-ratio="0.3798266351457841" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueGS32dx9Odg4teCF4UBZDPwNp30gKgWO9BA3yqocsdf2ZjksialM8IUg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1269" style="width: 548px;height: 208px;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="209" data-ratio="0.3829787234042553" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9uerS0kmdWfkj5M7gP4O0s1OlWibjyLw2XzrAJ73ER4BYGqibaPsSaTVHzg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1269" style="width: 546px;height: 209px;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">适龄购房人口（25岁-50岁）的规模角度来看，重点可以关注暖色系的区域，省域来看的话，广东、江西、安徽及河南的需求规模有一定基础</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7118226600985221" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueSHRyudnLP6EBTN5Me94giaoRMERaA7GFJYdSUbLsu8YibKPBiaWlnnHrQ/640?wx_fmt=gif" data-type="gif" data-w="812" style="" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">找到了有需求的地方后，我们需要研判有什么样的结构机会，做刚需，还是做改善，从年龄结构上来看这个城市的市场机会是什么。</span><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">以上海为例，从年龄结构来看，刚需+改善是主流，未来基本往首改以及子女置业+养老发展。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="578" data-backw="578" data-ratio="1" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueTdiaAStT01oscbZpuQ1dKPNS9Rdib7zk2b2ZycrRAE5KcFozuwZ3OOiag/640?wx_fmt=gif" data-type="gif" data-w="864" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5458758109360519" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueHTAQ3o0fVcOT0FbjUcxvA2sKDJdGxnG9YasyLItCJfXToIpbjUKeUQ/640?wx_fmt=gif" data-type="gif" data-w="1079" style="" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">结合到市场的结构来看，套总价在全市平均水平0.5-0.8倍的房源占比13%，即刚需的房源占比有一定规模，另外，套总价1.2-2.2倍水平的改善类房源占比也超过10%。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">通过年龄结构的趋势变化和市场结构的分析，可以快速判断整个市场是什么样的结构，帮助我们找到主流。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="1" data-cropsely2="314" data-ratio="0.5732546705998034" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueiaUxwMN6bnkFoic19DFoCWaGegtwMfjlvpGpibEKmSFrpmDX6guOe4QBQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1017" style="width: 546px;height: 313px;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;">找对节奏</span></strong></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">周期性层面上，关注市场信心周期趋势呈现</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>繁荣</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">走势及</span><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">复苏</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">走势的城市，尽量确保在市场信心向上走的时候有货可以卖，并且不在高位拿地。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f 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pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="270" data-backw="298" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueNGpIqwhVPhpLS7ia3O49SxGiczRLLRUwrWJ8jicnGur2M4Fl8c9JfGooQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="683.8717948717948" data-cropy1="0" data-cropy2="619.6153846153846" data-ratio="0.9077598828696926" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueL4xrBYOhMOBHPunO5hJiaEK8uYEYRkTT6FicYXdhwtE0pDZ6zeOQfEnQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="683" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="262" data-backw="238" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueNGpIqwhVPhpLS7ia3O49SxGiczRLLRUwrWJ8jicnGur2M4Fl8c9JfGooQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="706.8205128205128" data-cropx2="1253" data-cropy1="16.064102564102566" data-cropy2="619.6153846153846" data-ratio="1.1042047531992687" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ue5s0PZuLNhW6JeltxbY4JjibXyo0lYLxQZ3XvGh7558N0IMoyibjpQ7Kw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="547" style="height: auto;white-space: normal;width: 100%;" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">大胆预测未来，关注涨幅扩大以及止跌增长的城市，在收获城市价值提升的基础收益上，赚额外的市场提升带来的超额收益。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="text-indent: 0em;"></span><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7281831187410587" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueMSCEibSniauWVqSEiaDkBo4b70M7iaPfZxnibQibzxQmEQeibxA62ics3nVxlg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="699" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.8131970260223048" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9uevXzDOufKJnShpyA8ibII5e9c5rQT3KsBGibSIMMPr5cKEcQK2I8Nyiclg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1076" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7258953168044077" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9ueJVDuyG7EibeBExYmVQ3a7sOvgXe6A9484OiclwOehOXtiathrIriazRyibg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="726" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1.0300842358604092" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6IGwPJfVtejfQPMmqND9uehLQ8BnfqD7Ucbdh58I6E43IJlfASnaTc992fs1LTuhOR2ENfWJmwrA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="831" style="" /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">最后，总结回顾下本篇文章的主要结论——</span></strong></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">市场</span></strong></span><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">：预期2021年整体市场蛋糕依旧增长，会接近20万亿，需求依然有支撑，房地产依然能干</span></strong></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">企业</span></strong></span><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">：能够做下沉的区域型企业，规模在200-500亿，有弯道超车的机会</span></strong></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">城市</span></strong></span><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">：从2021年6月高位至今来看，结构性的分化比较明显，二三线城市依旧保持不错的增长势头，预期未来四五线城市中止跌回升的占比高</span></strong></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">趋势</span></strong></span><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">：大概率资金及市场整体层面会在2022年5-6月份触底，开始有转机，真正恢复到有热度的阶段可能会在2023年，2022年正是做储备的窗口期</span></strong></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">基础建议</span></strong></span><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">：回归价值+把握需求+找对节奏</span></strong></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">-END-</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br /></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: red;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">&nbsp;-&nbsp; 小程序 -&nbsp;</span><br style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;" 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data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzdKK1pWxDY25IjWC6hzyuZPClD30iaLtAVGt7UszT4kJMlymjsJz0yLneTFRIJS1jvpr56X0OGLrQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 50px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-width="50px" width="50px" data-backw="47" data-backh="47" data-ratio="1" 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