记一次客研白皮书发布会 原创 已修改 第1次修改 2023年04月17日 11时45分

<p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">///</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.562037037037037" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG673oh4lfXB3I2HYyDAk0aZxNUV3SF1fLY0k5djx7cEj9iaV7bEA360SvnmcPCoZdQADqV0p7vPJyA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">· 前言 ·</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">4月15日在北京参加了G50&amp;F100举办的中小房企圆桌会议，作为G50&amp;F100董事长俱乐部的专家，就客研方面的内容，与大家做了一个分享。</span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);text-align: center;">▼</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;"><strong><span style="text-align: center;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 35px;">01&nbsp;</span><span style="text-align: center;font-size: 17px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">仅有60%房企设置了客研岗位</span></strong><span style="text-align: center;font-size: 17px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">通过对博志成学堂进行的调研问卷，发现有60%的房地产企业设置了客户研究岗位，而40%的房地产企业则没有设置。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">部分大型房地产企业以客户研究为一级部门。在这些房地产企业中，集团客户研究部门对于区域和项目客户研究有着很强的话语权。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">也有些房地产企业将客户研究作为二级部门归属于设计部或营销部。调查显示，大约70%的房地产企业将客户研究部门放置在营销部门下，这间接证明了房地产企业普遍认为客户研究的主要职能是支持营销工作。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">通过对博志成合作的众多中小型房地产企业的访谈，发现很多这类企业并没有单独设置客户研究岗位。一是出于成本的考虑，二是由于工作量不足。在中小型房地产企业中，客户研究的职能多是由项目策划人员兼任，工作内容也主要是简单的市场和客户分析。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">此前，大型房地产企业极力扩张，拿地数量众多，客户研究主要配合投资拿地，其他工作只是市场监测或支持营销。调查显示，约60%的房地产企业主要在投前和售中进行客户研究，极少涉及售后。只有进行售后客户研究，才能真正发现客户在使用产品过程中遇到的问题，并对以后的产品升级和优化提供很大的借鉴意义。然而，许多小型房地产企业尚未意识到这一举措的重要性。这些小型房地产企业由于资金不足或扩张需求低，对客户研究的要求很低，而且前后拿地的间隔时间长，工作的分配往往不充实。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 35px;"><strong>02&nbsp;</strong></span><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;">客户研究是成本投入部门</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">大中型城市的房地产数据源较多，也是大型房地产企业持续深耕的主战场。大型房企对当地市场环境相当了解，市场研究颗粒度也比较细。博志成长期跟踪了典型的中小型房企，发现中小型房企的县级项目较多，个别是市级城市项目。对于城市研究、市场研究和竞争研究，颗粒度较粗，尚未建立标准化。即使建立标准化，由于公司运营体系不完备，标准化执行力度亦较弱，整体专业化程度较低。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">以客户细分为例，万科早在2005年就以生命周期对社区群体进行了分类，并建立了客户画像。然而，很多中小型房企仍然没有进行此类客户研究的基础工作。中小型房企缺少以客户分类为基础的产品标准化，拿地、产品设计或者销售基本上都是基于自身对当地市场客户和产品的主观判断，缺少专业深度挖掘和研判，因此常常导致许多错误。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">客户研究是房地产企业发展阶段的成本投入部门。房地产企业需要有一定的财力和规模才能支撑起自身的客户研究团队，从而使客户研究团队的价值得以充分发挥。根据问卷显示，客户研究价值应用业态仍以住宅为主。100%的房地产企业客户研究团队会选择研究住宅，这也与房地产企业主流开发业态有关。房地产企业商办客户研究占比约为57%。此数值较大主要由于商办体量逐渐成为房地产企业的战略投入，而房地产企业文旅、养老及教育业态客户研究较少。很多大型房地产企业不仅对住宅进行客户研究，对于商办、车位等业态同样进行深入的客户研究，且在业态细分研究上颗粒度已经达到极致。而中小型房地产企业尚未进行此类研究。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 35px;"><strong>03&nbsp;</strong></span><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong>中小房企</strong></span><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong>客研人员必须是“多面手”</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">大型房企的工作架构完备，工作体系流程化、制度化，职责分工明确，员工更像一枚“螺丝钉”。通过访谈多个合作企业，博志成发现中小型房企由于自身的特点决定了客研工作的多面性。客研人员必须是“多面手”，不仅要有完备的专业思维，还要了解投资、设计、成本等常见问题。尤其是在与其他部门配合时，其他部门中与客研相关的内容也要关注，甚至要亲自参与其中。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">大型房地产企业具备更强的新型大数据挖掘能力，更注重客户研究的数据精细、准确和前瞻性。博志成通过采访大数据系统专家，发现中小型房地产企业更依赖于现有的交易数据。数字化平台不完善，定量分析程度低，分析结果粗糙，导致结论不够清晰。龙湖的客户研究团队研究商场高端人群的业态定位时，会用美团品牌餐饮的客单价作为判断依据。他们将获得的数据输入公司内部数据系统，以得到分段客户价格承受能力范围，以便判断引进何种高端商业业态。在房地产行业中，真正做客户研究数据系统的企业寥寥无几。中小型房地产企业更成为大数据网络平台的绝缘体，或者没有接触过，或者接触过第三方但受到成本的限制而放弃。还有少数企业虽然使用了客户研究数据系统，但并没有实现企业经营价值的转化。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 35px;"><strong>04 </strong></span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">中小型房企尚未意识到客研的价值</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">根据博志成的调研数据，63%的调研对象认为客户研究结果无法实现市场价值。40%的调研对象所在房企的产品设计不考虑市场。76%的调研者认为挖掘客户痛点不到位。57%的调研对象认为所在房企客户研究成果的落地执行度不高。67%的调研者认为客户研判能力不足。53%的调研者认为团队能力有限导致。客户研究团队能力的提升已迫在眉睫。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">行业的现实情况也佐证了以上调研结论。许多中小型房地产企业尚未意识到客户研究的价值，或仍停留在传统的客户研究模式下。客户研究工作更多地围绕着当下的土地、市场和竞品展开研究，挖掘当下的客户需求，而与未来、社会、产品和客户的关联度并不高。有些房地产企业今天还在做客户研究，明天就可能不再做了。他们并未认识到客户研究应该是长期战略导向的一部分，缺乏对未来需求的价值判断。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">在中小型房地产企业中，客户研究工作往往被投资或者营销兼职进行，投资和营销人员的客户研究能力不足，会进一步导致客户研究工作不系统、不专业。尽管有些房地产企业单独成立了客户研究部门，但在投资决策环节中，客户研究的发言权往往比较弱，客户研究作为内部公正顾问的价值未能充分发挥，直接导致拿错地或高价拿地。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">在市场景气的时候，客户研究的目标是从源头上创造畅销产品，以促进利润提升。而在市场不景气的时候，项目去化困难。除了产品因素，也可能是营销找错了客户。此时客户研究介入，通过复盘夯实定位，选取符合项目目标的客户，可以降低拓客成本。通过和项目销售的联动，配合置业顾问跟踪和把控客户，也可以促进成交转化。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 35px;"><strong>05&nbsp;</strong></span><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong>客户研究促进营销去化及提高产品竞争力</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">回顾房地产行业的发展轨迹，我们可以发现，通过客户研究来促进营销去化及提高产品竞争力是一种被证明可行的方法。在行业巨头万科的发展过程中，它在不同的发展阶段相继受到了索尼、沃尔玛、新鸿基地产、美国Pulte Homes等品牌的启发，从而觉醒了对产品和服务的重视，进而以客户为导向贯穿了整个发展过程。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">自成立之初，万科就意识到谁掌握了客户，谁就拥有了广阔的发展前景。在1994年正式确立“2个70%投资原则”战略计划之后，万科全面推进了质量管理，不断研究并推广小户型普通商品房，致力于“为普通人盖好房子”、“盖有人住的房子”，甚至专门为城市中低收入人群的保障性住房推出了“海螺行动”专项解决方案。在1997年，万科将“客户年”作为经营主题，在2002年将“客户微笑年”定为经营主题，在2004年成立了WK客户服务中心，在2005年提出了“客户细分策略”，成立了产品品类部从客户视角提出产品要求，成立审计法务部扮演挑剔的业主，成立客户关系中心专管客户关系。万科通过研究成交客户、流失客户、观望客户，为客户定位和销售管理提供策略优化和调整，始终坚守“选项质量（产品类型）——建造质量——发展商和客户的关系质量”全链条的客服服务初心。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">仔细分析，不难发现，在1993年、1997年、2004年，每一个宏观经济环境及房地产行业发生重大变化的节点上，围绕客户做研究一直是万科的战略选择。在1988年至2004年实现百亿目标的历程中，万科的客户战略基本成型；万科的“三好住宅”——好房子、好服务、好社区体系落地；“3+X”全国战略布局模式开始启动。不得不说，2004年整个房地产行业进入城镇化红利推动的历史新阶段之后，成体系的客户与产品研究为万科深耕珠三角、长三角、环渤海区域，迅速做大规模、跻身千亿、成为专业化住宅开发商并持续发展起到了巨大的推动作用。回顾过去，逆市做客研对营销作用巨大。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 35px;"><strong>06 </strong></span><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong>经营价值</strong></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>投资价值：提高区域深耕精准度，减少投资失误的风险</strong></span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">房地产行业是典型的周期行业，只有凭借精细化运营的企业才能度过周期。在每一次周期变化中，那些盲目拍脑袋决策拿地的企业，往往是第一批出局的企业。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">如果在拿地阶段，企业能够对城市客群分布和潜力进行详细研究，并提前锁定地块客群。围绕目标客群的特征进行产品定位，拿错地的概率就会大幅下降。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>土地价值高是否等于土地值得买？</strong> 如何在投资过程中跳出“土地价值陷阱”？</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">以重庆渝中区大坪附近某项目地块为例，该土地价值为102，位居全市前列，网格均价为29703元/m²。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">禾略种子系统-土地现状价值</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.39537037037037037" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG673oh4lfXB3I2HYyDAk0aZKPM10wncGicY8djwPq2AFnAp7ibqzXg6gDcRM8ab2223dfmKLDt0wbuA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">信息来源：禾略种子</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>禾略种子系统-房价地图</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.46944444444444444" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG673oh4lfXB3I2HYyDAk0aZ5FKw9EoXFfAk3wKibp0hgPuz4YlcPD47u6shtI5LSuwP5js9HGy4Ycw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">信息来源：禾略种子</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">再来看一下该项目地块所在板块的市场需求：</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">禾略种子系统-客户地图-面积需求分析</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5898161244695899" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG673oh4lfXB3I2HYyDAk0aZJDWTUiankFs0tE2GEsmSgLefmHm5SiaIRF54NoxibGhNKLnqRcYzP4PaQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="707" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">信息来源：禾略种子</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">如果要在这里购买土地，主要需求是120-130平方米左右的住宅。因此，整体售价应该在350-450万左右（实际售价根据拍地情况可能更高）。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">因此，我们还需要考虑购买力在350-450万以下的客户群体（购买力下的购买热区）的分布情况。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">禾略种子系统-支付力地图</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.475" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG673oh4lfXB3I2HYyDAk0aZs9wVatAW6Kmaf58ia5pqnFQiaPSZ5KGTfiblu2Yd500fn4hoz0f0Iv8Jg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">信息来源：禾略种子</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们可以发现，那些具有购买能力的人并不会在这里购买。如果企业将面积缩小，降低支付力的门槛，那又不符合该区域客户想购买的面积范围。虽然这块土地的价值不错，但要将其开发成产品却很尴尬。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">因此，<strong>土地价值高 ≠ 土地值得购买</strong>。仅靠经验手感，盲目跟随市场共识，而忽视了对客户需求的关注，是造成企业投资踩坑的最常见原因。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">就“客户愿意在哪里花多少钱买什么样的产品”这个问题而言，通过客户研究，我们可以清晰地了解客户想要购买的地区及产品。然而，客户研究的人工证明过程繁琐、复杂且耗时。如果我们使用禾略种子系统，就可以快速准确地得出第一手客户需求研究结论。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">以重庆礼嘉板块某项目地块的客户研究为例：</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">禾略种子系统-客户地图</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5166666666666667" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG673oh4lfXB3I2HYyDAk0aZtvZy5OLzbd0wjCznNvgV7as5CsibAKXVRQntbPTticLicicpDia2LHE4spg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">信息来源：禾略种子</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">禾略种子系统-客户地图-面积需求分析</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5912305516265912" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG673oh4lfXB3I2HYyDAk0aZZWoZmnskMXhSSaNfxNgVll6VCgF6z5VRwBryPzUrUkqVyvrtoKib0NQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="707" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">信息来源：禾略种子</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">禾略种子系统-客户地图-客户属性分析</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5092592592592593" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG673oh4lfXB3I2HYyDAk0aZc7Yn1jlblaQMQ5ictaxiaNr3IBLibfYc5lZiaHnghCcZMyY9z0WrRu2n2w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">信息来源：禾略种子</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>禾略种子系统-支付力地图</strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5324074074074074" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG673oh4lfXB3I2HYyDAk0aZpbPKQxlUM0Pibqrr9RaUjo6B2NoiavhDkpUhxSib3OqIfKrbb0MiaDVqXQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">信息来源：禾略种子</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">可以看出，（价格属性）礼嘉整体一手均价为17229元/m²，增速从2019年开始放缓，即将进入下探筑底周期；（人口属性）区域人口逐年递增；（土地属性）土地以“低盈利率-低回报率”为主；（客群属性）以品质改善、空间刚性改善为主，客户来源以地缘客户居多，面积以130平米、110平米、160平方米为主力需求段；以36-40岁、41-45岁为主要年龄段，职业以个体商户、公司管理层、公司职员为主；（支付力属性，总价格段：198万-300万）板块主力地缘客户有不错的支付能力。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">总的来说，客户研究可以为企业各个环节的决策提供科学依据。客户研究还有助于提醒各部门关注核心问题：“客户愿意在哪里花多少钱买什么样的产品”。这可以提高企业各部门间的协同效率。将企业决策体系与客户研究数据体系相结合，可以实现信息化科技助力企业持续增长。</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><p style="max-width: 100%;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">-<span style="color: rgb(123, 127, 131);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">END</span>-</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word 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