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边缘计算新蓝海:AI推理芯片需求增速超训练芯片2倍

发布于 2025-08-31

<p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">核心观点</span></span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1. 整体立场</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- 维持对AI半导体及服务器供应链的乐观态度,但风险回报比相较2025年4月有所恶化,需警惕短期风险因素。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">&nbsp; &nbsp;- 关键驱动因素:</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; - 需求端:超大规模云服务商(CSPs)对AI的投资意愿增强,2025-26年资本开支预期上调(Bloomberg共识:2025年+55%,2026年+17%)。</span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; - 供给端:台积电(TSMC)CoWoS先进封装产能扩张趋于理性,2026年产能预计达100万片/年(2025年为70万片)。</span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; - 催化剂:英伟达(NVIDIA)AI服务器机架出货量从2025Q1的1千台/季度低点回升,预计2026年达4.6万台。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2. 细分领域预测</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp;&nbsp;<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">&nbsp;- AI半导体:</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; - 2026年全球AI逻辑芯片收入预计同比增长55%(原预测30%),2027年增速放缓至20%。</span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; - 英伟达:2026年占据台积电CoWoS产能的60%,通过提前Rubin架构产品发布挤压ASIC(专用芯片)供应。</span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; - ASIC:谷歌TPU(v6p/v7p)、AWS Trainium 3、Meta MTIA等定制芯片需求增长,但短期受CoWoS产能限制。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">&nbsp; &nbsp;- AI服务器:</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; - 2025年全球AI服务器收入增长76%,2026年+40%;通用服务器2025年+23%,2026年+6%。</span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; - 英伟达GB系列机架:2025年出货量上调至2.22万台(原2.01万),2026年预期4.6万台(GB300/Rubin架构主导)。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">3. 政策与市场动态</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- OBBBA法案与USMCA协议:可能刺激CSPs短期资本开支,包括加速折旧、研发费用抵税等优惠政策。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">&nbsp; &nbsp;- 供应链风险:</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; - CoWoS产能真实性(若需求不及预期,2026Q1或现下行风险)。</span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; - 模型过渡期波动(如GB200→GB300、Rubin架构量产可能延迟)。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">&nbsp; &nbsp;- 技术挑战:</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; - CoPoS(面板级封装):量产推迟至2029H2,因面板载具和翘曲控制技术不成熟。</span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; - CoWoP(直接封装到PCB):面临制造难题(如SLP厚度匹配),可能停留在研发阶段。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">重点公司推荐</span></span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1. 半导体与封装:</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- 台积电(TSMC):AI芯片核心代工厂,结构性首选。</span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- ASPEED、Alchip:受益于英伟达CoWoS订单及AWS Trainium项目。</span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- 日月光(EMC)、景硕(KYEC):封装与载板需求增长。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2. 服务器ODM/组件:</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- 广达(Quanta)、纬颖(Wiwynn)、鸿海(Hon Hai):估值合理,GB系列机架主力供应商。</span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- 电源/散热/PCB:</span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; - 台达电(Delta):AI服务器电源升级至500kW高压架构。</span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; - 欣兴(Unimicron)、臻鼎(ZDT):高端IC载板供不应求。</span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; - AVC、奇鋐(Auras):液冷方案需求爆发(价值量提升5-15倍)。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">3. 连接器/线缆:</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- 贸联(Bizlink):高速/高功率线缆主导供应商(800G AEC市占率90%+)。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">风险提示</span></span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1. CoWoS产能过剩:</span>若2026Q1需求不及预期,或导致订单下调。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2. 政策红利消退:</span>OBBBA/USMCA的短期刺激可能透支未来需求。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">3. 技术迭代风险:</span>Rubin架构量产延迟或ASIC性能突破可能重塑竞争格局。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">图表关键数据</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">- 图8:台积电AI收入中,英伟达占比2025年59%,2026年55%。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100044023" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnfQM63g0YXcq4ruDicI1mRfR2XXmujuyuO0WC2Z999hXOMPBaANduaibAYiarHASiaryR3Et75NlGb2g/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p><span leaf="">- 图31:2026年全球服务器收入预计3751亿美元(AI服务器占比70%)。</span></p><p><span leaf="">- 图33:Top 5 CSPs 2025年资本开支共识+55%,Meta 2026年或达1000亿美元(+45%)。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">结论</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">尽管AI硬件板块股价已处高位,野村仍建议超配半导体及服务器供应链,优选英伟达、谷歌生态标的,短期警惕AWS供应链的季度波动。长期看,2026-27年新一代GPU/ASIC的技术升级(如HBM4、液冷)将推动组件价值量进一步提升。</span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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