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边缘AI死亡清单曝光!电池续航成最大命门,AI眼镜出货量恐暴跌60%

发布于 2025-08-27

<section data-mpa-md-root="t" data-mpa-md-template="1"><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mem8d2hk15k3" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">以下是摩根士丹利2025年8月19日研究报告的核心内容总结,涵盖亚太半导体行业(尤其是大中华区)的关键趋势、投资机会及风险分析:</span></span></span></span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mem8d2hk1aj3" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">一、行业观点与核心结论</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">行业评级上调</span></span></strong></span></span></section></li></ol><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">将2025年下半年半导体行业观点升级至&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">“有吸引力”</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(Attractive),优先看好&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">AI半导体</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(优于非AI领域)。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">驱动因素:关税和汇率担忧消退、库存天数下降(历史表明库存下降预示股价上涨)、生成式AI需求扩散至多领域。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">关键风险</span></span></strong></span></span></section></li></ol><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">AI替代效应</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2025年下半年复苏可能受关税成本影响。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中国产能扩张</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:成熟制程晶圆厂(如SMIC、华虹)产能过剩导致价格压力,毛利率维持低位(约5-25%)。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">汇率波动</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:新台币升值对台积电(TSMC)等台企毛利率构成压力(每升值1%影响毛利率0.4-0.5个百分点)。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mem8d2hrjr3" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">二、AI半导体供应链动态</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">需求驱动</span></span></strong></span></span></section></li></ol><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">推理需求激增</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:DeepSeek等模型推动低成本推理需求,但NVIDIA B30芯片可能稀释本土GPU供应链份额。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">云服务商(CSP)资本支出</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2025-2026年云资本支出预计达&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">1,0270亿美元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">,AI半导体TAM(潜在市场)2025年或达&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2350亿美元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="common" style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;"><section nodeleaf="" style="height: auto;width: auto;max-height: none;max-width: none;min-height: auto;min-width: auto;"><img data-imgfileid="100043689" data-ratio="1.0053763440860215" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlgPOc7s6TPs5ZZVj5UlPHC1yVNLdZk0hfcA8ibEhSicnNx59sv8sGBTa4sn0dkVNhPibkPyhjvlpNVw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="372" height="1" style="height: auto;width: auto;max-height: none;max-width: none;min-height: auto;min-width: auto;" width="1" /></section></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">边缘AI与定制芯片</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:边缘AI半导体增速(22% CAGR)或超云端,定制芯片(39% CAGR)将超越通用芯片。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">供应链瓶颈与突破</span></span></strong></span></span></section></li></ol><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">CoWoS产能</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:台积电计划2026年将CoWoS产能扩至&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">90kwpm</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">,以缓解NVL72服务器机架瓶颈。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="common" style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;"><section nodeleaf="" style="height: auto;width: auto;max-height: none;max-width: none;min-height: auto;min-width: auto;"><img data-imgfileid="100043688" data-ratio="0.6770428015564203" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlgPOc7s6TPs5ZZVj5UlPHCZwowU4VfN8fELEPpbUtmNJ4VhzMYJRXib30OEGx96OujSZGwicuQzyvg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="514" height="1" style="height: auto;width: auto;max-height: none;max-width: none;min-height: auto;min-width: auto;" width="1" /></section></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">HBM供应</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text" data-remoteid="" data-asynid="" src="https://mmbiz.qlogo.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlgPOc7s6TPs5ZZVj5UlPHCZwowU4VfN8fELEPpbUtmNJ4VhzMYJRXib30OEGx96OujSZGwicuQzyvg/0?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-src="" src="https://ima-notebook-prod.image.myqcloud.com/2/Iq0YEe4oUhyNpfpqda0fYP/720f594d608749a7bd377130533f28da?q-sign-algorithm=sha1&amp;q-ak=AKID9IDtLZZKqGRO7hVFnMn0zjXTXovoTtAN&amp;q-sign-time=1755830789%3B1755859589&amp;q-key-time=1755830789%3B1755859589&amp;q-header-list=&amp;q-url-param-list=&amp;q-signature=de5dd2562b96797bfe7cef40e7351b8dfd57e5e0" align="" alt="" border="" data-ratio="" data-s="" data-type="png" data-w="" aria-label="" aria-braillelabel="" aria-description="" height="1" hspace="" ismap="" opacity="" sizes="" style="" title="" type="" usemap="" vspace="" width="1" data-width="" data-height="" data-croporisrc="" data-cropx1="" data-cropx2="" data-cropy1="" data-cropy2="" data-cropselx1="" data-cropselx2="" data-cropsely1="" data-cropsely2="" data-backw="" data-backh="" data-copyright="" data-oversubscription-url="" data-before-oversubscription-url="" data-galleryid="" data-gallerysupplier="" data-cardimg="" data-fileid="" data-imgfileid="100043685" data-positionback="" data-imgqrcoded="" data-imgid="" data-upload="" data-fromlib="" data-aiimageid="" data-cacheurl="" data-retry=""><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2025年HBM需求或达&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">160亿Gb</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">,NVIDIA占据主导份额。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="common" style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;"><section nodeleaf="" style="height: auto;width: auto;max-height: none;max-width: none;min-height: auto;min-width: auto;"><img data-imgfileid="100043687" data-ratio="0.5304347826086957" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlgPOc7s6TPs5ZZVj5UlPHCmqeGMGHfem4eWGDiaD2RPQd2rfH0R2R8gqpZHnZrzQ6N7peoyicUOeug/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="460" height="1" style="height: auto;width: auto;max-height: none;max-width: none;min-height: auto;min-width: auto;" width="1" /></section></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中国本土GPU</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:自给率预计从2024年34%升至2027年82%,中芯国际(SMIC)7nm产能是核心驱动力。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mem8d2i4yom" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">三、重点公司与投资机会</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">AI相关标的</span></span></strong></span></span></section></li></ol><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">台积电(TSMC)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:AI收入占比2027年或达34%,CoWoS扩产受益者(目标价NT$1,888,+34%上行空间)。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="common" style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;"><section nodeleaf="" style="height: auto;width: auto;max-height: none;max-width: none;min-height: auto;min-width: auto;"><img data-imgfileid="100043690" data-ratio="0.6025641025641025" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlgPOc7s6TPs5ZZVj5UlPHCibFZon05MeUSkZibZnkkzLoh7LrHiacMa18tNWz2MxU4AQ6ZR8RCoPJDg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="468" height="1" style="height: auto;width: auto;max-height: none;max-width: none;min-height: auto;min-width: auto;" width="1" /></section></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">京元电子(KYEC)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:NVIDIA测试业务贡献2025年营收或超25%,推动业绩增长。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true" data-remoteid="" data-asynid="" src="https://mmbiz.qlogo.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlgPOc7s6TPs5ZZVj5UlPHCibFZon05MeUSkZibZnkkzLoh7LrHiacMa18tNWz2MxU4AQ6ZR8RCoPJDg/0?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-src="" src="https://ima-notebook-prod.image.myqcloud.com/2/Iq0YEe4oUhyNpfpqda0fYP/1f30a2a3bf3241b293049667de1454e9?q-sign-algorithm=sha1&amp;q-ak=AKID9IDtLZZKqGRO7hVFnMn0zjXTXovoTtAN&amp;q-sign-time=1755830789%3B1755859589&amp;q-key-time=1755830789%3B1755859589&amp;q-header-list=&amp;q-url-param-list=&amp;q-signature=4fea311af3f01c00d310b63a3f7f5a38518296d1" align="" alt="" border="" data-ratio="" data-s="" data-type="png" data-w="" aria-label="" aria-braillelabel="" aria-description="" height="1" hspace="" ismap="" opacity="" sizes="" style="" title="" type="" usemap="" vspace="" width="1" data-width="" data-height="" data-croporisrc="" data-cropx1="" data-cropx2="" data-cropy1="" data-cropy2="" data-cropselx1="" data-cropselx2="" data-cropsely1="" data-cropsely2="" data-backw="" data-backh="" data-copyright="" data-oversubscription-url="" data-before-oversubscription-url="" data-galleryid="" data-gallerysupplier="" data-cardimg="" data-fileid="" data-imgfileid="100043684" data-positionback="" data-imgqrcoded="" data-imgid="" data-upload="" data-fromlib="" data-aiimageid="" data-cacheurl="" data-retry=""><span leaf="">创意电子(GUC)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">、</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">世芯(Alchip)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:定制AI芯片设计服务龙头,受益于CSP自研芯片趋势。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">细分领域龙头</span></span></strong></span></span></section></li></ol><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">驱动IC</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:联咏(Novatek)受益OLED DDI需求(2025年iPhone OLED DDI出货预计4600万颗)。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="common" style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;"><section nodeleaf="" style="height: auto;width: auto;max-height: none;max-width: none;min-height: auto;min-width: auto;"><img data-imgfileid="100043691" data-ratio="0.5801886792452831" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlgPOc7s6TPs5ZZVj5UlPHCUyAV0WyBRgd5D4tMrbms3khybuibI5ZoLUx467xK7xHqeI5v4icRu4kA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="424" height="1" style="height: auto;width: auto;max-height: none;max-width: none;min-height: auto;min-width: auto;" width="1" /></section></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">功率半导体</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:斯达半导(Starpower)、扬杰科技(Yangjie)受益汽车半导体本土化。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">设备与材料</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:ASMPT(封装设备)、中微公司(AMEC)受益先进封装与国产替代。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新兴技术布局</span></span></strong></span></span></section></li></ol><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">CPO(共封装光学)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:降低高速传输功耗的关键技术,博通(Broadcom)、日月光(ASE)为主要参与者。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">WoW(晶圆堆叠)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:华邦电(Winbond)的CUBE方案可提升带宽并降低成本,2025-2030年CAGR或达257%。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mem8d2ijh04" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">四、中国市场焦点</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">汽车半导体</span></span></strong></span></span></section></li></ol><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">本土化机遇</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:中国电动车渗透率领先全球,但车用芯片自给率仅15%(2024年),2027年有望升至28%。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">重点标的</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:地平线(Horizon Robotics,自动驾驶芯片)、韦尔股份(OmniVision,CIS传感器)、兆易创新(GigaDevice,MCU)。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">设备进口替代</span></span></strong></span></span></section></li></ol><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2025年上半年设备进口同比增长2%,新加坡成为主要来源地。设备商(北方华创、中微公司)持续受益政策支持。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mem8d2io17ly" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">五、风险提示</span></span></strong></span></span></section><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">成熟制程竞争</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:中国晶圆厂成熟节点产能过剩,毛利率承压(SMIC毛利率约15-25%)。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">地缘政治</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:美国限制高端GPU出口可能加速国产替代,但技术差距短期难弥合。</span></span></span></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">汇率波动</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:新台币升值对台企盈利构成压力。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ol><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mem8d2ir1qmm" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">六、关键数据速览</span></span></strong></span></span></section><table style="min-width: 75px;"><tbody><tr style=""><th style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">指标</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th><th style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">2024/2025e</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th><th style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">2027e/2030e</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th></tr><tr style=""><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">中国GPU自给率&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">34% (2024)</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">82% (2027e)</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">云AI半导体TAM&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">-</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">2350亿美元 (2025e)</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">边缘AI半导体CAGR&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">-</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">22% (2023-2030e)</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">CoWoS产能(台积电)&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">32kwpm (2024e)</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">90kwpm (2026e)</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">HBM需求</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">-</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 15px;">160亿Gb (2025e)</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mem8d2ir1lfb" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">结论</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:AI半导体(尤其推理与定制芯片)、汽车半导体本土化、先进封装(CoWoS/WoW)是核心增长点。建议超配台积电、京元电子、创意电子等AI供应链龙头,以及斯达半导、地平线等汽车芯片标的,同时关注汇率及地缘政治风险。</span></span></span></span></section><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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