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bold;">è¹æå ¬å¸</span>ï¼å¨âæ³°å¦è®¡åâä¸èè´¹10å¹´ï¼ç§å è¶ 100亿ç¾å ï¼æç»å¨2024年黯ç¶åæ¶ï¼2000åå工被迫转å²æè£åãèé ç¦ç¹å大ä¼ä¸¤å¤§å·¨å¤´çèªå¨é©¾é©¶ææ<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">Argo AI</span>ï¼ç´¯è®¡èèµ36亿ç¾å ï¼å´å L4æ åºæ´å¨2022å¹´ç ´äº§ï¼ç´æ¥å¯¼è´ç¦ç¹è®¡æ27亿ç¾å èµäº§åå¼ã</span></section><section data-layout-id="4" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">æ¾ç¼å ¨çï¼å°¸æ¨ªééã<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">Convoy</span>èèµè¶ 8亿ç¾å å è´§è¿è¡°éå ³åï¼<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">Embark Trucks</span>èèµ1.15亿ç¾å 黯ç¶éåºï¼<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">Ghost Autonomy</span>èèµè¿2.2亿ç¾å å 路线ä¸åå®é åéï¼è¿å¾·å½eVTOLç¬è§å ½<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">Volocopter</span>ï¼ä¼°å¼19亿ç¾å ï¼ä¹å¨2025å¹´æäº¤ç ´äº§ç³è¯·ã</span></section><section data-layout-id="5" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">å½å å¸åºåæ ·è¡è ¥èè¯ã<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">å¨é©¬æ±½è½¦</span>åç»12è½®èèµçç§410亿å ï¼çæ¥çä¸æ¯ä¸å¸èæ¯ç ´äº§éæ´ï¼ä¸å¹´ç´¯è®¡äºæ174亿ï¼èµä¸æµåºã<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">å¥ç¹æ±½è½¦</span>èèµ170亿ï¼9å¹´ä» äº¤ä»ä¸å°çµå¨ä¸¤è½®è½¦ã<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">é«å汽车</span>æ¯å ¬å¸å人è¿é2024å¹´ç³è¯·ç ´äº§ï¼æ®éåºæé«è¾¾124.76亿å ãä¸æ³¨èªå¨æ³è½¦ç<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">纵ç®ç§æ</span>èèµ22亿ï¼ä¸æ¬¡IPO失败ï¼2025å¹´4æè¿å ¥ç ´äº§å®¡æ¥ã<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">âèªå¨é©¾é©¶å¡è½¦ç¬¬ä¸è¡âå¾æ£®æªæ¥</span>ä¹é¾éä¸å¡åæãå¢é解æ£çå½è¿ã</span></section><section data-layout-id="6" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">è¿äºæ¾ç»çèµæ¬å® å¿ï¼è¯å¾å°è¡ç®¡æå¨èµæ¬çèµ·æå¨ä¸ï¼ç¨PPTå®å¤§åäºæ©çå车åä¸æ¨¡åï¼Unit Economicsï¼çå½»åºå´©å¡ã潮水褪å»ï¼åªå©ä¸å°é¸¡æ¯åå·¨é¢åºå¡é»æ´ã</span></section><h1 data-layout-id="7" style="font-size: 20px;font-weight: 500;color: rgba(43, 119, 191, 1);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 12px;text-align: center;"><span leaf="">äºã 误åºä¸é·é±ï¼ç¡¬ä»¶å æä¸è½¯ä»¶é»ç</span></h1><section data-layout-id="8" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">å½ççå¸å·èæ¥ï¼è¡ä¸é·å ¥äºå¯¹âæ¯âçç¯ç追éãä»ä»¬å°å¤±è´¥å½åäºâä¸å¤åªåâæâç®åä¸å¤å¤§âï¼æ®ä¸ç¥å¤±è´¥æºäºâ太æç®æ¯âã</span></section><h2 data-layout-id="9" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 500;color: rgba(43, 119, 191, 1);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 12px;"><span leaf="">1. 硬件端çâå è¿å¶ç¨é¥¥æ¸´çâ</span></h2><section data-layout-id="10" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">è¡ä¸è¿·ä¿¡âå æâï¼æ¼ç®åãæ¼æ¿å é·è¾¾ãæ¼5nmè¯çæµçãäºå®æ¯ï¼ä¸é¢5nmæºé©¾è¯çç åæµçææ¬é«è¾¾5.42亿ç¾å ãå¨æ²¡æç¾ä¸çº§ééåæçåæä¸ï¼ç²ç®èªç å è¿å¶ç¨è¯çï¼çåäºç¨æ¼æ°´ç桶ææ°´ã<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">èæ¥ç¥çNX9031</span>ã<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">çæ³é©¬èµ«M100</span>ï¼1280TOPSï¼å追æ±5nmå·¥èºãè¥ééæ æ³æ¯ææ°äº¿ç¾å åºå®ææ¬æéï¼è¿äºâ大èâç»å°åå®æ¯å ¬å¸èµäº§è´åºè¡¨ã</span></section><h2 data-layout-id="11" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 500;color: rgba(43, 119, 191, 1);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 12px;"><span leaf="">2. 软件端çâ端å°ç«¯å¹»è§â</span></h2><section data-layout-id="12" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">è¡ä¸è¿·ä¿¡â端å°ç«¯å¤§æ¨¡åâï¼è®¤ä¸ºåªè¦åæµ·éæ°æ®å°±è½è¾åºå®ç¾é©¾é©¶ãæ®é ·çç¸æ¯ï¼é¢å¯¹éä¿æ¤å·¦è½¬ã临æ¶æ½å·¥çç½è§é¿å°¾åºæ¯ï¼Corner Casesï¼ï¼ç±äºæ度缺ä¹é«è´¨éè¿ç»å¸§çå¼æ°æ®ï¼æ¨¡åé¢ç°è´å½âå¹»è§âãä»ä»¬ä»¥ä¸ºææ¡äºAIé¥åï¼å®åå¨ç¨æ®ç¼ºæ°æ®åå »æ æ³ææ§çé»çã</span></section><h2 data-layout-id="13" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 500;color: rgba(43, 119, 191, 1);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 12px;"><span leaf="">3. è¿è¥ç«¯çâèåç¹è£â</span></h2><section data-layout-id="14" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">å¹³å°ä»¥ä¸ºéºæ»¡æµè¯è½¦ãå·é«æ¥æ´»å°±è½è®²æ§ææ äºã<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">éç¨Cruise</span>ä¸å¹´ç´¯è®¡äºæè¶ 80亿ç¾å ï¼2023å¹´åä¹ä¸ªæç§æ19亿ï¼ç»å å®å ¨äºæ 被åéæµè¯è®¸å¯ï¼è£åè¶ å人ã<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">Waymo</span>è½å¨2026å¹´5ææ¥æ´»è¾¾10.5-11ä¸äººï¼åæ¯æ¿å¢400%ï¼ï¼å´é¢ç°æ 人车转åã红绿ç¯æçµç«çªã空车é¯å ¥å°åºéå± æ°æµå¶ççªå¢ãå½å å¦<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">祺åºè¡</span>2025å¹´è¥æ¶è¶ 50亿ä»åäº3.2亿ï¼<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">T3åºè¡</span>å³ä¾¿å®£ç§°é¦æ¬¡çå©ï¼åå©çä¸è¶³0.04%ï¼è¶ 80%订åä¾èµè ¾è®¯ãé¿éèåå¹³å°æ½æï¼è¿ä¸ææ¯å©è¢«å¤é¨æµéåå¬ã</span></section><section data-layout-id="15" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">å¦å¾è¶å¤ï¼ç¦»æ»è¶è¿ãç¨ææ¯å¤å¥æ©çæç¥ææ°ï¼ç¨ç§é±æ¢åèè£éç¨ï¼æ ¹æ¬æ æ³è·¨è¶âå®å ¨âä¸âåä¸åææ¬â两座大山ã</span></section><h1 data-layout-id="16" style="font-size: 20px;font-weight: 500;color: rgba(43, 119, 191, 1);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 12px;text-align: center;"><span leaf="">ä¸ã 认ç¥ç¿»è½¬ï¼èµ¢å®¶çâéèåç½®æ¡ä»¶â</span></h1><section data-layout-id="17" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">å¥å¼å丽å¤è¡£ï¼å³å®çæ»çå¾å¾æ¯è¢«éèçåºå±é¨æ§ãåæ ·ç端å°ç«¯æ¨¡åãåºæµ·æç¥ï¼ä¸ºä½å¤´é¨å¯¡å¤´æ¯éç»´æå»ï¼æ®éç©å®¶æ¯èªæåå¢ï¼</span></section><section data-layout-id="18" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">æ ¸å¿å¨äºï¼è¿ä»æ¥ä¸æ¯å纯ææ¯åæ°æ¯æ¼ï¼èæ¯æè´çâç»ææ§ææ¬ä¼å¿âãâåºå±è½¯ç¡¬ä»¶æ¶æéå¡âä¸âæ度å å¶çèµéçè¿ä½âçç»åã</span></section><h2 data-layout-id="19" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 500;color: rgba(43, 119, 191, 1);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 12px;"><span leaf="">1. èè£ææ vs åææææ </span></h2><section data-layout-id="20" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">被æ·æ±°è ç¯ç车éè§æ¨¡ãè¯çç®åãèèµé¢åº¦ï¼èµ¢å®¶ç¯ç<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">å车çå©ï¼Unit Economicsï¼ãæ¯è±é综åè¿è¥ææ¬ï¼Cost per mileï¼ãæ°æ®é£è½®éç¯å»¶è¿</span>ãå½Robotaxi硬件ææ¬æ æ³éè³20ä¸å 以å ï¼å¤§å¹ éä½æ¿å é·è¾¾çææ¬ï¼ï¼è§æ¨¡åç»æµæ§å°±æ¯å¤©æ¹å¤è°ãä¸åæ æ³è½¬å为æ£åç°éæµçææ¯ææ ï¼é½æ¯æ¯è¯ã</span></section><h2 data-layout-id="21" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 500;color: rgba(43, 119, 191, 1);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 12px;"><span leaf="">2. 硬件å ç vs 软硬解è¦ä¸æè´å榨</span></h2><section data-layout-id="22" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">æ®é车ä¼é·å ¥ç¡¬ä»¶ç¦èï¼è¯å¾é¢åææ°æè´µè¯çï¼å°ææ¬è½¬å«æ¶è´¹è ã<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">ç¹æ¯æ</span>åéè¿âä½å¢å¼ºç®æ¯å·ç§¯âä¸å©ï¼è®©æ§æ¬¾HW3è¯çï¼å8ä½è®¾è®¡ï¼å¨ä¸æ¢ç¡¬ä»¶æ åµä¸ï¼æµç è¿è¡é16ä½çè³32ä½ç²¾åº¦çFSDç®æ³åTransformer模åãå®å°é«ç²¾åº¦æ°æ®æ为两个8ä½å ï¼å©ç¨è¯çå·ç§¯æ¨¡åè¿åï¼ç»è¿å 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12px;"><span leaf="">4. ä¼°å¼æ³¡æ²«ä¸èµéçåå¬</span></h2><section data-layout-id="26" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">æªè³2026å¹´5æï¼æºè½æ±½è½¦æ¿åå¸éçï¼PSï¼é«è¾¾14.2x-14.6xï¼å¤äºåå²95%-97%åä½æ°ï¼æ度é«ä¼°ã泡沫åãåé¤ç¹æ¯æåï¼PSåè½è³3.7x-4.2xï¼ç¸å¯¹ä¸æ§ï¼ã</span></section><section data-layout-id="27" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">解å2026å¹´çå©é¢æµï¼ä¸è´é¢æï¼ï¼</span></section><section data-layout-id="28" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">å°é¹æ±½è½¦</span>ï¼è¥æ¶961.8亿ï¼åå©-13.6亿ï¼PE -76.5ï¼æç»äºæï¼ã</span></section><section data-layout-id="29" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">å°é©¬æºè¡</span>ï¼è¥æ¶9.7亿ï¼åå©-13.5亿ï¼PE -18.4ï¼L4è½å°é¾ï¼ã</span></section><section data-layout-id="30" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">æè¿ç¥è¡</span>ï¼è¥æ¶9.5亿ï¼åå©-13.1亿ï¼PE -82.0ï¼æ·±é·äºæï¼ã</span></section><section data-layout-id="31" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">æ¹æåºè¡</span>ï¼è¥æ¶263.1亿ï¼åå©-2.7亿ï¼PE -43.8ï¼å¾®äºï¼ã</span></section><section data-layout-id="32" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">å°å¹³çº¿æºå¨äºº</span>ï¼è¥æ¶56.7亿ï¼åå©-34.4亿ï¼PE -22.8ï¼ç å失è¡ï¼ã</span></section><section data-layout-id="33" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 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