重新发现城市化趋势

<p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">你认为，路口越密集，行人越方便，才有城区的感觉；<br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">他认为，只要公共交通覆盖得到，生活出行就很方便，如果有地铁，那肯定就算是在城区了；</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">她认为，只要有高速路能到，开车出行一个小时以内，生活也是很便捷，也可以算是城区吧？</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">城区究竟有没有一个量化的概念，而不是感性的认知？</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">于是，我们把“路口”、“公交”和“自驾”三个指标变成数据，尝试通过聚类的方法，根据这三个指标数据的强弱，</span><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">让机器自动把城市分为三大类：城区、拓展区和郊区。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 14px;">就可以直接看到一个城市所处的城市化阶段。</span></strong></span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">比如说：北京</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-backh="313" data-backw="556" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/utscgkBHZ3abAtTXkG7aDNTTWTXBCZER3UticcM8kibLCEjDyROF1QehL3COeEcKnc65JegogmTLt7JsXGKibKibtg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;height: auto !important;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 481px;visibility: visible !important;" width="100%" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从上图可见，红色是城区，粉色是拓展区，绿色是郊区。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;">当然，目前这个数据结果是有bug的，比如说，没有考虑生态控制线，没有考虑耕地保护红线，假设了全北京的土地都是可以做城市建设开发的。</span></em></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">除了可以一目了然看到城市化的趋势，还可以看到具体的数值。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">还是以北京为例，</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7WWF8zDcgs683mwRBn6vPjRCNNQfnzs9CVmZdjibEok1iaHRTQPB07ibgbERtxF5y1ka3CDRI5CYeYw/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.6868905742145178" data-w="923" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">北京市面积16371平方公里，</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">城区面积1292平方公里，占全市面积8%，</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">拓展区面积7192平方公里，占全市面积44%，</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">两者合计占52%。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">假设常住人口主要居住在城区和拓展区，</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG7WWF8zDcgs683mwRBn6vPjl1LMEVdGT7HjIAziaH0HB9WvRfW1w0BebjCbMHfibCRFls7lcE6xCvcQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.662379421221865" data-w="933" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">那么北京的人口密度是2947人/平方公里。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">根据同样的计算方法，<br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">上海的人口密度是4311人/平方公里，</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">广州是5837人/平方公里，</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">而深圳则是夸张的15216人/平方公里。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-backh="313" data-backw="556" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/utscgkBHZ3abAtTXkG7aDNTTWTXBCZERHmLyNlOFicgSafrEgt59ZQnnt0MFxZssHxB3Jmtib3PNkNxpVStGj91g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;height: auto !important;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 481px;visibility: visible !important;" width="100%" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">虽然深圳的人口密度非常高，但是当我们谈到逃离一线城市的时候，约定俗成的说法是：逃离北上广。<br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这又是为什么呢？</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-backh="313" data-backw="556" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/utscgkBHZ3abAtTXkG7aDNTTWTXBCZERunC1Zak67m65Jj5WDWCXVekViaBjErxxX1OsljWeceQyRO8AxMwqkibg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;height: auto !important;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 481px;visibility: visible !important;" width="100%" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从上图数据可以看到，很显然，深圳实在是太小，怪不得之前马书记考虑填海，如果不填海，只能往东莞和惠州找发展空间。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">分析<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830221&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f5994dbfe9fa00ffce4b5be1a69f3244&amp;chksm=83517292b426fb8419e771cf48ea94de01fc7dc909b4e8c2759c6423b8be6080bc5bd1c248cc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">深圳地铁利好</a>的时候，从交通到地形地貌，莞深合作的空间都更大<br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6EH1BrdS6uIskCmcK6XSUKmdFU5HLMjQnbToHFpLRicBVlaTQVOdx58zRaRDvddPGqZaibyFspOFtA/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.6039004707464694" data-w="1487" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">深圳2030年规划路网空间化</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6EH1BrdS6uIskCmcK6XSUKFZ3ic5iaUBefI0zoKxriblFzsic8c7upAHE4rR3PSdFkhTECtcWToRqcUg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.6333333333333333" data-w="780" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">环深圳的地形地貌，莞深有地终成眷属<br /></span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">但从另一个角度看，东莞城市化发展成熟度也很高，从珠三角的空间区位来看，并不比深圳差，<strong>要想东莞屈从于深圳，还是有些难度的。</strong><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">惠州一直就有主动接受深圳招安的意愿，只是深圳东部山脉延绵，无法在空间上和惠州无缝对接发展。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这种情况下，<span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>深圳需要在龙岗发展出一个新中心，真正把惠州纳入囊中</strong></span>，或许这就是马书记东进战略的出发点吧？</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从上述数据还可以发现，上海<span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">的</span></span>城区面积</span>最大，那么我们暂且，假设上海的城市化建设程度是中国最高的。以上海为标准，我们可以计算出一个合理的全市人口密度标准——</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">上海，2514万常住人口，城市面积7820平方公里，全市平均人口密度为3215人/平方公里。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">按照上海的人口密度标准，对应北京、广州、深圳的城市面积，他们合理人口总量应该是多少呢？</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-backh="313" data-backw="556" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/utscgkBHZ3abAtTXkG7aDNTTWTXBCZERibhib9Bo6BAic2QVpS3GgUtA1fUQj34QbV9iaChEeQl99eJrfI9TxcWSyg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;height: auto !important;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 481px;visibility: visible !important;" width="100%" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">上海被假设为基准线就不说了，</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">北京还可以增加3074万人口<span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">（假设了北京所有地方都是可以建设开发）</span>，</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">广州还可以增加965万人口，</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">而深圳则需要疏散469万人口。<br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></em></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><em><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;">这种计算方法还是有比较明显的bug，毕竟好山好水也不能都推平了搞城市建设，所以我们可以再假设，如果只是把人口安置在“城区”+“拓展区”，那么上海的人口密度标准又是多少？</span></em></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">按照这个标准，北京、广州、深圳的合理人口总量又应该是多少？</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">上海，2514万常住人口，“城区”+“拓展区”=5799平方公里，城市化人口密度为4335人/平方公里。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">按照这个标准，北京广州深圳的合理人口总量如下：</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><img class="" data-backh="313" data-backw="556" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/utscgkBHZ3abAtTXkG7aDNTTWTXBCZERicBhnbrwEOGrtXCQFdV43EiapUf1GhXq6zf2ibRXbPFVOtKVLdAZR0UAg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;height: auto !important;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;text-align: center;width: 481px;visibility: visible !important;" width="100%" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">北京还可以增加1489万人口<span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">（假设都住在城市里具备建设条件的地方）</span>，</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">广州还可以增加441万人口，</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">而深圳则需要疏散445万人口。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">不论怎么计算，深圳理论上始终都是需要人口疏散的</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">，可见深圳的人地关系是何等的紧张，深圳未来要继续高速发展，要么找到前所未见的土地集约化发展新模式，要么就是协调周边城市开拓发展空间。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">于是，我们把珠三角其他城市的数据也处理了一下——</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><img class="" data-backh="313" data-backw="556" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/utscgkBHZ3abAtTXkG7aDNTTWTXBCZERVdKboRfolvrW3SESYJicRGxMVMPRflX9fVP7CSd2F3nJTuibP07uKmvw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;height: auto !important;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 481px;visibility: visible !important;" width="100%" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">「建成率=（城区+拓展区）/合计」</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这样看来，珠三角的城市建设都还不错，只有惠州比较落后，受这个数据启发，我们开始重新思考深圳和惠州的关系。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">会不会存在这样一种未来：<span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>龙岗中心城，成为深圳东和惠州的核心区，</strong></span>深圳的部分城市功能和产业转移到龙岗，理论上需要疏散的400多万人口，在龙岗工作，在惠州安居。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">如果是这样，深圳也就打开了再次发展的城市空间，而惠州的城市价值也会得到极大的提升。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">再考虑到深圳的新移民里面有大量来自粤东潮汕地区的人口，而惠州又是潮汕到深圳的必经之地，如果惠州可以进一步改善与潮汕地区的交通关系，这个双赢的未来也就有了更多实现的可能。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-backh="313" data-backw="556" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/utscgkBHZ3abAtTXkG7aDNTTWTXBCZERdXodHTB5hcvhHgCtPJ507KakKJIauKOcMiciczqrcpqxgaCtFSvyzoWw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;height: auto !important;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 481px;visibility: visible !important;" width="100%" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这个数据启发打破了我以往重东莞轻惠州的固有思维模式，所以，我想，能不能用同样的思路看看其他城市，说不定也会有收获。</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-backh="313" data-backw="556" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/utscgkBHZ3abAtTXkG7aDNTTWTXBCZERBvR37TO0c56iabhrfJJYHJS0jjPicCMaJictm62zAs5Z2IwJNpoNBbVgQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;height: auto !important;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 481px;visibility: visible !important;" width="100%" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从上表的数据来看——</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">重庆如果算上郊县，基本等于是一个省。。。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">杭州建成率低，估计是因为山水景观资源太多了，但从绝对值来看，杭州的城区和拓展区还是足够大的。<span style="font-size: 14px;">这么看来，刚刚出的“杭州湾”的谣言，似乎有一定道理</span>。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7WWF8zDcgs683mwRBn6vPjp635Nwp13icZghyCM7wFgD6diaQcLiaWflkDwibp7JEjSiapID5oUeMpImQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="width: 445px;height: 536px;" class="" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7WWF8zDcgs683mwRBn6vPjl9Mx5ILwyzS0EGGVPEFfZoMInNjCHgcxzE4H9nhln8RRIFn6EiaePUg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="445" data-cropy1="87" data-cropy2="623" data-ratio="1.2072072072072073" data-w="444" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">还是以上海为标准，城市化人口密度为4335人/平方公里，再来看看这几个城市合理的人口总量数据：</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-backh="313" data-backw="556" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/utscgkBHZ3abAtTXkG7aDNTTWTXBCZERnIhK11YanQKibq4nSz1h0D1yeUxIYvyQ5llNrR0J3FVLv0tUeDbzH5A/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;height: auto !important;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 481px;visibility: visible !important;" width="100%" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">结合最后这两个表来看，<span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>除了重庆，其余城市的基本框架已经搭好，接下来最主要的事情就是抢人</strong></span>，人地关系会呈现持续的相对紧张关系，房地产市场还是大有可为的，哪个城市抢人会更成功，那就要看政府发展产业和城市配套功能的水平了。<br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">至于重庆，继续扩大城区和拓展区范围，坚决补充固定资产投资，还是头等大事，抢人当然也要参与，不过由于土地供应和人口需求同步增长，所以整体上，人地关系还是比较宽松的，特别适合做规模的开发商，当然，拿地节奏要控制好，管理好地价很重要。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">结论见仁见智，数据和逻辑展示给大家，希望有启发。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">猜你想看 | 房地产研究新方向之<strong><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);">【跨界思考】</span></strong>系列</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong>房地</strong></span><span style="font-size: 12px;background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>产</strong></span><span style="background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 14px;"><strong>×大数据</strong></span></span></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829662&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=a0f9b47beae15eaada8d20b39fb26c21&amp;chksm=835170c1b426f9d7c8ecebbe881b254293dea7c826683c2e381693d874915dedef067a98d419&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">1、如何理解城市的发展和土地的价值？</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829874&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=89cea6591f505400948575845f627b73&amp;chksm=8351702db426f93b8b50893dc664a17b3e69dd5d980ea96e16def2c758deddc0cc7b906069dd&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">2、要是有一天，马云也做房地产</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829841&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=4c8c80fb3b7b721df0a9fd204ac07f66&amp;chksm=8351700eb426f918410cde0800635745e898437602799c7dfd6c38a623ec784eb196dcec16f7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">3、悦府开盘谣言不断，如何打破信息不对称？</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829718&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=a5fdb1b706d12d9f75d4af2d772375f7&amp;chksm=83517089b426f99f4e7d16d12554059e0ae02d17b0d32646d49cc15ba7bf084db5fbc01484b2&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">4、围棋都AI了，地产还靠经验？</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"></span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829590&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=a89abd34200c237cf3773686a1486ee2&amp;chksm=83517109b426f81fa20b8dfd28a6d572bfb11b42ef10050fe26a1612f0c54dd6e92bd07e8610&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">5、两年跟踪研究 | 大数据回答房地产不一样的问题</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829293&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9c248869ff7a1a03947bd160b429927b&amp;chksm=83516e72b426e7646af7fb4cc65a4904a29c83336f46a87f4b253f2eb893c4dbd9315a65cab8&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">6、<span style="font-size: 14px;">你们想知道的房地产模型算法在这里</span></span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829251&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9d13ee02bf8c26fc14cc6f05790061c0&amp;chksm=83516e5cb426e74a760e05894bce91006149e2b3131a74e1a2169436425571f861adab77a76b&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">7、2017房企投资指南</span></a><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829185&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7e4da293d7535f9488b6c9c319968357&amp;chksm=83516e9eb426e7889fc88381b07b62e19df334267ac060b7fb883002899c2e495adb9fffe178&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">8、禾略送给专业地产人的圣诞礼物</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=206752846&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9b1148eb7ff37e89f2cb1c12dcecb8ea&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">9、就是给您提供点数据——致上海市委书记的一封信</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><strong>大城小事×禾略观点</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830221&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f5994dbfe9fa00ffce4b5be1a69f3244&amp;chksm=83517292b426fb8419e771cf48ea94de01fc7dc909b4e8c2759c6423b8be6080bc5bd1c248cc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">1、深圳最新地铁规划，究竟“利好”了谁？</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830196&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7a599cf338734c1d41c6fa16005b1641&amp;chksm=835172ebb426fbfdda6873adbeddc124ae670de675a7c36d11977106150a1d924572ea70f299&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">2、禾略是这样解读城市，成都篇</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;"></span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=cd78421e4f2e724f552f8eefc65e0236&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa26aed46ed566bc1f8ffa11498370fed14fa9d0690795a3eff5a186c63a03d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">3、参考深圳标准，上海房价还要涨46%</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829563&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9e468d74b0dc9a156fcdb7bb4944551a&amp;chksm=83517164b426f8722e59ebee139130e104a9d6cf46ce22adeaf03fe0c6861e33a901a4246723&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">4、嘉兴，有地万事足</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829512&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=421f2b766d75009082de8fc1e81cd8d2&amp;chksm=83517157b426f84197c93fd852a3e3f93019c9d81e099784ad0aa09f326ca9dd33a0edb7cfd7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">5、在珠三角中，谁是下一个雄安新区？</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829480&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c77baf137c109f1017170a708548d37b&amp;chksm=835171b7b426f8a1d942708988b8f4bd875366f5928d1db99470ccad6958aa0c8cd47b292c23&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">6、独家 | 为什么要建雄安新区？</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"></span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829214&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=e245560eeadafae388de6a7d7577e04e&amp;chksm=83516e81b426e7976c5c6d425b4a39ade86d0e12ed288238933e3662f48c58d57c4efeb5c801&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">7、深圳房价下一轮还能不能涨？</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829123&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=dfa4dc6c2538443c36261850676e445f&amp;chksm=83516edcb426e7ca756d2a80930aa8be108cbd730cb05573393378c60e9c9e8ce88067b00c06&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">8、客研圈观测的新物种——屌英</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=402337281&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=01025bafd1b30fc52ccffa541506497c&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">9、花了上亿的设计费，望京SOHO还是租不出去</span></a><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=401847225&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=1ae51240243bad61b1e0a316994f362a&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">10、北上广深未来十年的房价走势</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">解忧杂派军×技术流</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829733&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=3f4241c78a32428b8e4221f32e45f533&amp;chksm=835170bab426f9ac7d68b787ff9864174ed4ccbac8750117c6a26106d0a6275d2e978d3c1498&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">1、在禾略实习是一种怎样的体验</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829841&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=9779a066dfc0da9bb0e7ab3431721161&amp;chksm=8351700eb426f918902b9f9c61a6cc9902653b4b9f7908eed632867330dd834656d5d7cf9a8b&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">2、在禾略实习BUG回顾</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829379&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c0f0079307b8b0971c8b1d2e9e4c2adf&amp;chksm=835171dcb426f8cae8b68d38d7321790c39ce7069af846d43aae885c7f78b3f117e9ddd210ab&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">3、好奇心 | 做一个万科同款“大数据分析平台”需要多少钱</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829303&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=d6cc03f58eb0e21641a717312d5dda65&amp;chksm=83516e68b426e77e04faae951eb1671a164107acd72d104c7f71e8309b113f03a28cbdfe8bc4&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">4、大数据教你如何关爱女性</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"></span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649828728&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=733857ccf3d9e1be62cac2872eca573a&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">5、一个没有图书的图书馆，却大受追捧</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649828712&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c62e708c4b22a6d9511a9431e2077c52&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">6、居家户型设计成情趣酒店套房，为什么你还觉得合理？</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649828677&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7c875db73d5b1cd5b80d82dfc68c7be2&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">7、如何拿对一块地，少奋斗30年</span></a><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649828638&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9dd9532d4b315ffa866d7f062210cbcf&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">8、数据会说谎</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=206786995&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2cf4dfdbf624ee798ea5a04a48402a53&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">9、万科城市地图第二春</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830201&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=1816623486b879233513443f1df6ec59&amp;chksm=835172e6b426fbf07aa0f023c3ff79ca1cf11606fc2f2b66cfe773222e3fa1df7f92affa90b6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;">10、他把别墅做成中产阶级的玩具，结果被一抢而空</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>2017年市场短周期预测</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">（每月12号更新）</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">珠三角地区<span style="font-size: 12px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829288&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=bafb04e8b5ee2bacc63eba3228935085&amp;chksm=83516e77b426e761e6d70197138964ba6cd488b358fe193ec13aaf59ff070de1d49ce0c0d34f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">2月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829332&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f60cb83ae739bb39e06e8347ef40d69a&amp;chksm=83516e0bb426e71d23d19f6cf6a884e596d980d8702bc0aff16ea6af89ded59e6ab9ebfa70c0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">3月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829457&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6ed54b4f34b78edbb6f90d1c974dc4f2&amp;chksm=8351718eb426f898d95531d2bc63408aa3f62453070925f69840e725e8c8e3e1541f471f7091&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">4月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829536&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=afd1eae35736e77003ddcb13f3f28e61&amp;chksm=8351717fb426f8697c1b88caa536ecf0b86ca0ea82007f46ea4c49524d284c5fbb8b24eaae69&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">5月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829645&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=85248135d55f4cc72278bb099e0ae417&amp;chksm=835170d2b426f9c428dd05c5751f8b3a79d7727cebac23097fa16f25fdea0137915b217f6bde&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">6月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829783&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b1151b97fdebc49102df125a87ed5935&amp;chksm=83517048b426f95ec769dddecdcbf59072bd05e0e4e84ddda437eda5bae6a09dbb2d8510767f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">7月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829841&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=ba5f9cab33c5edcea4e5a8b32f40ca9c&amp;chksm=8351700eb426f9188a9fbadfb06f94431dfa464c512eac51e06d42eb647d5d2a0cb53f38b1fc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">8月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=ddcff78831ef35c1567385c035f4f9d6&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa2c9015eb00400546b627214b1aa7bceac9d60325d15cb3b02b170f0c9fb37&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">9月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830098&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6e17da0729c31b4e18adad55abf1cced&amp;chksm=8351730db426fa1b0d830e0ca3cbd545734939625250ccf831aaa7992cdc06e30717b32b9f4f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">10月</a>、</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">长三角地区<span style="font-size: 12px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829288&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=bafb04e8b5ee2bacc63eba3228935085&amp;chksm=83516e77b426e761e6d70197138964ba6cd488b358fe193ec13aaf59ff070de1d49ce0c0d34f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">2月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829332&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f60cb83ae739bb39e06e8347ef40d69a&amp;chksm=83516e0bb426e71d23d19f6cf6a884e596d980d8702bc0aff16ea6af89ded59e6ab9ebfa70c0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">3月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829457&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6ed54b4f34b78edbb6f90d1c974dc4f2&amp;chksm=8351718eb426f898d95531d2bc63408aa3f62453070925f69840e725e8c8e3e1541f471f7091&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">4月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829536&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=afd1eae35736e77003ddcb13f3f28e61&amp;chksm=8351717fb426f8697c1b88caa536ecf0b86ca0ea82007f46ea4c49524d284c5fbb8b24eaae69&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">5月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829645&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=85248135d55f4cc72278bb099e0ae417&amp;chksm=835170d2b426f9c428dd05c5751f8b3a79d7727cebac23097fa16f25fdea0137915b217f6bde&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">6月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829783&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b1151b97fdebc49102df125a87ed5935&amp;chksm=83517048b426f95ec769dddecdcbf59072bd05e0e4e84ddda437eda5bae6a09dbb2d8510767f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">7月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829841&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=ba5f9cab33c5edcea4e5a8b32f40ca9c&amp;chksm=8351700eb426f9188a9fbadfb06f94431dfa464c512eac51e06d42eb647d5d2a0cb53f38b1fc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">8月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=52e5c0d38a682b1c69685de472e5967c&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa2ced3abc468a56a38a8cf0d98f590ccd8f7a29cbe6e0600c66853f900db6e&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">9月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830098&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=a2df5eb804546dae571f06d4f0220ac6&amp;chksm=8351730db426fa1b34b511f5620ac792141facdb9e21592a1ba782ecc7f04677080ef47ad451&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">10月</a>、</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">中西部地区<span style="font-size: 12px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829288&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=bafb04e8b5ee2bacc63eba3228935085&amp;chksm=83516e77b426e761e6d70197138964ba6cd488b358fe193ec13aaf59ff070de1d49ce0c0d34f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">2月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829332&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f60cb83ae739bb39e06e8347ef40d69a&amp;chksm=83516e0bb426e71d23d19f6cf6a884e596d980d8702bc0aff16ea6af89ded59e6ab9ebfa70c0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">3月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829457&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6ed54b4f34b78edbb6f90d1c974dc4f2&amp;chksm=8351718eb426f898d95531d2bc63408aa3f62453070925f69840e725e8c8e3e1541f471f7091&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">4月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829536&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=afd1eae35736e77003ddcb13f3f28e61&amp;chksm=8351717fb426f8697c1b88caa536ecf0b86ca0ea82007f46ea4c49524d284c5fbb8b24eaae69&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">5月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829645&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=85248135d55f4cc72278bb099e0ae417&amp;chksm=835170d2b426f9c428dd05c5751f8b3a79d7727cebac23097fa16f25fdea0137915b217f6bde&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">6月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829783&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b1151b97fdebc49102df125a87ed5935&amp;chksm=83517048b426f95ec769dddecdcbf59072bd05e0e4e84ddda437eda5bae6a09dbb2d8510767f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">7月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829841&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=ba5f9cab33c5edcea4e5a8b32f40ca9c&amp;chksm=8351700eb426f9188a9fbadfb06f94431dfa464c512eac51e06d42eb647d5d2a0cb53f38b1fc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">8月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=4&amp;sn=b4dbd6e2e114a7ffc1bd5d762accb012&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa2981ee49c6ec0cca1d19817788d23c42bef941415640b77b2b7487ea03827&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">9月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830098&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=4ef2c67447e82da0538bd6bc897031a0&amp;chksm=8351730db426fa1b2c2e2a3ee1e88820ca738162efec5e11dadd64b4d41f711f7305cfd0f234&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">10月</a>、</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">北部地区<span style="font-size: 12px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829288&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=bafb04e8b5ee2bacc63eba3228935085&amp;chksm=83516e77b426e761e6d70197138964ba6cd488b358fe193ec13aaf59ff070de1d49ce0c0d34f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">2月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829332&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f60cb83ae739bb39e06e8347ef40d69a&amp;chksm=83516e0bb426e71d23d19f6cf6a884e596d980d8702bc0aff16ea6af89ded59e6ab9ebfa70c0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">3月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829457&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6ed54b4f34b78edbb6f90d1c974dc4f2&amp;chksm=8351718eb426f898d95531d2bc63408aa3f62453070925f69840e725e8c8e3e1541f471f7091&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">4月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829536&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=afd1eae35736e77003ddcb13f3f28e61&amp;chksm=8351717fb426f8697c1b88caa536ecf0b86ca0ea82007f46ea4c49524d284c5fbb8b24eaae69&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">5月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829645&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=85248135d55f4cc72278bb099e0ae417&amp;chksm=835170d2b426f9c428dd05c5751f8b3a79d7727cebac23097fa16f25fdea0137915b217f6bde&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">6月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829783&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b1151b97fdebc49102df125a87ed5935&amp;chksm=83517048b426f95ec769dddecdcbf59072bd05e0e4e84ddda437eda5bae6a09dbb2d8510767f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">7月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829841&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=ba5f9cab33c5edcea4e5a8b32f40ca9c&amp;chksm=8351700eb426f9188a9fbadfb06f94431dfa464c512eac51e06d42eb647d5d2a0cb53f38b1fc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">8月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=5&amp;sn=496cedb857d3ac5fe4beb0eac7d78d34&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa2b7390c9cbcb039676c09b9d2808eafe180d101e90b7d4f62f280a15bb3dd&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">9月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830098&amp;idx=4&amp;sn=2f71512a654087b6e4bbb8f19cf3463c&amp;chksm=8351730db426fa1babeeb1b4a7af96e989b5257bc088df943a0e05319463d6a373d4e709c356&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">10月</a>、</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 1.5em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-size: 16px;line-height: 25.6px;white-space: normal;border-width: medium;border-style: none;border-color: currentcolor;-moz-border-top-colors: none;-moz-border-right-colors: none;-moz-border-bottom-colors: none;-moz-border-left-colors: none;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="" style="margin: auto;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-color: rgb(71, 193, 168);width: 3em;text-align: center;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: inherit;font-size: 1em;text-decoration: inherit;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-radius: 50%;width: 3em;height: 3em;line-height: 3.5em;overflow: hidden;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(71, 193, 168);"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">更多</span></section></section><section class="" style="margin: -0.92em auto auto;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 0px;font-family: inherit;border-top: 3em solid rgb(71, 193, 168);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;border-right: 1.4em solid transparent !important;border-left: 1.4em solid transparent !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section></section></section><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><fieldset class="" style="margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-width: 0px;white-space: normal;border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: currentcolor;-moz-border-top-colors: none;-moz-border-right-colors: none;-moz-border-bottom-colors: none;-moz-border-left-colors: none;text-align: center;color: rgb(129, 120, 119);font-size: 13.63px;font-weight: bold;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="padding: 0.3em 0.5em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);border-radius: 0.5em;text-align: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-weight: inherit;text-decoration: inherit;display: inline-block;box-shadow: rgb(165, 165, 165) 0.2em 0.2em 0.1em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="padding: 0.3em 0.5em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);border-radius: 0.5em;text-align: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-weight: inherit;text-decoration: inherit;display: inline-block;box-shadow: rgb(165, 165, 165) 0.2em 0.2em 0.1em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);font-size: 16px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">禾略中国：helue_China</span></p></span></fieldset><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;color: rgb(129, 120, 119);font-size: 13.63px;font-weight: bold;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><hr style="max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;text-align: justify;color: rgb(129, 120, 119);font-size: 13.63px;font-weight: bold;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" /><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;color: rgb(129, 120, 119);font-size: 13.63px;font-weight: bold;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;">陪你想，陪你写，陪你玩</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-size: 16px;line-height: 25.6px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-size: 16px;white-space: normal;text-align: justify;line-height: 24px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><img data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG4z3ZLnvGz7yzYuZ21wHoX53ZpOwnQhPmGbl2SxSiboaKiaW8L2CuhQBnhRkhP7Z47icicDduyXibFxAAg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" style="line-height: 1.6;text-indent: 32px;font-family: 宋体;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: auto !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></p><p><br /></p>