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银河证券9月金股出炉!AI算力+高股息抢先布局

发布于 2025-09-08

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">以下是中国银河证券2025年9月投资组合报告的核心内容总结,涵盖市场观点、行业配置逻辑及重点标</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">的分析:</span></span></span></span></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="dRTh9oDjcT" style="" data-dir-key="dRTh9oDjcT"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">一、市场整体观点</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">8月行情回顾</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">A股单边震荡上行,科创50、创业板指涨超20%,通信(+34.41%)、电子(+24.79%)</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">、计算机(+18.91%)领涨。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">驱动因素:政策预期(政治局会议定调、AI+国家战略)、中报业绩验证(有色、电力设备)、科技主题</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">发酵(寒武纪、工业富联带动热情)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">9月展望</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">流动性驱动结构性行情</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:美联储9月降息预期升温,改善全球流动性;国内居民存款持续搬家,市场资金充裕。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">两条主线</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">基本面线索</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:中报披露完毕,关注高景气行业(如电力设备、非银金融)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策预期</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:10月二十届四中全会聚焦“十五五”规划,提前布局政策受益板块(如国防军工、消费)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="_nGaUTY0_m" style="" data-dir-key="_nGaUTY0_m"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">二、核心配置方向与逻辑</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><section><table style="min-width:180px;"><tbody><tr style=""><th data-colwidth="130" style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">方向</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th><th style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">逻辑与重点板块</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th><th style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">代表标的</span></span></strong></span></span></p></th></tr><tr style=""><td data-colwidth="130" style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">1. 政策预期</span></span></strong></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">- 国防军工:“十四五”收官年订单加速,“十五五”规划开启新周期。 - 消费:扩大内需长期战略</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">,关注家电、汽车。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">紫光国微、美的集团</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td data-colwidth="130" style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2. AI+芯片</span></span></strong></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">- AI从模型走向应用,算力需求爆发;国家支持半导体自主可控。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新易盛、兆易创新、中国移动</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td data-colwidth="130" style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">3. 业绩催化</span></span></strong></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">- 电力设备、有色金属中报超预期,盈利担忧缓解。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">金力永磁、伊戈尔</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td data-colwidth="130" style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">4. 高股息防御</span></span></strong></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">- 经济复苏波动下,高股息资产(公用事业)现金流稳定。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">长江电力&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr><tr style=""><td data-colwidth="130" style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">5. 创新与出海</span></span></strong></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">- 医药企业(CXO、创新药)凭借成本优势加速海外授权。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></p></td><td style=" max-width: 284.667px;min-width: 284.667px; "><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">凯莱英、信达生物</span></span></span></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table></section><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="K5eaTqPeEY" style="" data-dir-key="K5eaTqPeEY"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">三、重点标的分析</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><h4 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="DsOBF9jJ6x" style="" data-dir-key="DsOBF9jJ6x"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">1. 高景气赛道龙头</span></span></strong></span></span></h4><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">金力永磁(300748.SZ)</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">逻辑</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:稀土永磁龙头,人形机器人+低空经济打开第二增长曲线;墨西哥产能投产,6万吨扩产项目推进。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">预测</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2025E归母净利润7.35亿元(+152.58%),PE 76.53倍。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">比亚迪(002594.SZ)</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">逻辑</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:Q2出口占比升至22.6%,高端车型(腾势+仰望)占比6.1%;墨西哥工厂布局深化全球化。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">预测</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2025E营收9718亿元(+25.06%),PE 21.36倍。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h4 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="Gd-pRcW2VZ" style="" data-dir-key="Gd-pRcW2VZ"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2. 政策与科技双驱动</span></span></strong></span></span></h4><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">紫光国微(002049.SZ)</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">逻辑</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:特种芯片Q2业绩拐点显现,车规MCU导入主机厂;自建封装线投产降本。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">预测</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2025E归母净利润17.12亿元(+45.16%),PE 40.48倍。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">同花顺(300033.SZ)</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">逻辑</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:AI货币化加速(问财GPT2.0调用量环比+220%),合同负债23.14亿元锁定未来收入。</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">预测</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2025E归母净利润25.56亿元(+40.19%),PE 84.30倍。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h4 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="AoZ0y69MTg" style="" data-dir-key="AoZ0y69MTg"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">3. 稳健红利与出海</span></span></strong></span></span></h4><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">长江电力(600900.SH)</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">逻辑</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:水电股息率3.5%具配置价值;抽蓄+新能源(金沙江1500万千瓦)打造第二成长曲线。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">预测</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2025E分红率70%,PE 19.98倍。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">开润股份(300577.SZ)</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">逻辑</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:箱包代工绑定Nike/优衣库,服装代工(收购上海嘉乐)净利率升至5.08%;印尼产能避关税。</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">预测</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2025E营收53亿元(+24.97%),PE 14.28倍。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="dQJDfj7WhN" style="" data-dir-key="dQJDfj7WhN"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">四、风险提示</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">宏观风险</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:经济数据不及预期、美联储降息节奏延迟、海外衰退传导。</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">行业风险</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新能源车需求疲软(比亚迪、理想汽车);</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">半导体国产替代不及预期(兆易创新);</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">医疗政策变动(凯莱英、信达生物)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">地缘政治</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:关税政策(TCL电子、开润股份)、国际冲突扰动供应链。</span></span></span></span></li></ol><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="4hfCPmZ3IY" style="" data-dir-key="4hfCPmZ3IY"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">五、配置建议</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">进攻组合</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:紫光国微(军工芯片)、新易盛(AI算力)、比亚迪(新能源出海)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">防御组合</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:长江电力(高股息)、招商银行(金融稳健)、山东黄金(金价上行)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">平衡策略</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:超配AI+芯片(30%)、政策受益(25%),标配高股息(20%)、消费(15%),低配周期</span></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(10%)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><blockquote style=""><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">提示</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:报告强调“业绩确定性”为核心筛选标准,重点关注政策催化(四中全会)、技术迭代(AI应用)及全球化能力(出海标的)。</span></span></span></span></p></blockquote><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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