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降价,就真的有客户吗?

发布于 2023-05-08

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style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="cursor: text;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;" /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="cursor: text;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;" /></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;justify-content: center;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 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visible;"><span style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;">▼</span></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px 16px;outline: 0px;text-align: justify;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;visibility: visible;"><span style="text-align: justify;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.034em;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">前段时间去了趟盐田考察,看到了很多集装箱。</span><br /></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;white-space: normal;text-align: justify;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我跟同事说,假如你来到了盐田大梅沙旅游,路过这里,看到了此情此景,却开口大声说:“好多集装箱!<span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">”</span>那你的人生有些肤浅了。</span></section><p style="margin: 5px 16px 16px;outline: 0px;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;visibility: visible;"><span style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;font-size: 12px;">图1:盐田港</span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5722222222222222" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxIAGex3RBoLNJDd5NY6Y3gv9Adk0rZa0ibHEUlCMAft0XK12tAibCm3HPmZnHLXuHNzo7WianTjqTzQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.034em;" /></p></section></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">建议可以看看<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>《集装箱改变世界》</strong></span>这本书,从集装箱看到物流成本带来的产业链分工,并因此形成了“沿海-内陆“城市发展格局。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所以,哪怕五一假期<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>在人潮人海中旅行,也可以感知丰富的世界。</strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">上月推文<strong>《房地产到底还可以干几年?》</strong>,我们从有效客户数据的视角,测算了全国销售额前十城市的当下可开发年份。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">本文,我们聚焦到全国2022年24个万亿城市,从城市就业端的客群视角来讨论城市的<strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">有效客群容量弹性</span></strong>。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">分为<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>静态弹性和动态弹性</strong></span>,静态是指市场不变,即房子总价不同,有效客群基数不同;动态是指,市场价格的变化情形。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">先从单维度开始,主要细分了以下3个问题:</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="font-weight: bold;color: rgb(217, 33, 66);font-size: 16px;"><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);font-size: 16px;"><strong>当下,城市有多少人买得起好房子?</strong></span></p></li><li style="font-weight: bold;color: rgb(217, 33, 66);font-size: 16px;"><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);font-size: 16px;"><strong>当下,城市有多少人买得起普通住房?</strong></span></p></li><li style="font-weight: bold;color: rgb(217, 33, 66);font-size: 16px;"><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);font-size: 16px;"><strong>市场变了,城市客群容量的变化?</strong></span><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"></strong></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="font-size: 48px;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">01</strong><br /></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 23px;"><strong>有多少人买得起“好房子”?</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);font-size: 17px;"><strong>近三成的长沙打工人可以舒适安居</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">假设一个城市一手房平均总价以上的房子,代表这个城市的好房子,那么不同城市有多少客群呢?</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">根据一手房套均总价换算月供,以家庭为单位换算人均月供,再按照人均月供占收入的比例换算成收入要求,便可以挖掘满足月供收入的人群。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">图2:“好房子”客群容量比例及购置收入要求</span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="491" data-ratio="0.9020356234096693" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxIAGex3RBoLNJDd5NY6Y3gpBNqMUYBhgUib9XT4DO0Ht6bFHep51cxA9LqG8Y7ZadIJ2iawWIiawDtw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="786" style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;text-align: justify;width: 546px;height: 493px;" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">房价越贵的地方,自然而然买得起的人越少,究竟有多少,得从两个角度看。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从</span><span style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>上车收入要求</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">来看:<strong>郑州、泉州、长沙、重庆白领可以轻松置业</strong></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">想在<strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">上海</span></strong>买套好房子,月薪需达到40k,而在<strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">北京</span></strong>需要35k,<strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">深圳</span></strong>则要34k;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">杭州、广州、南京</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">同属第二梯队,25k的月收入便可任君选择;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">15k的月收入可考虑的城市达15座,而10k月收入便可在<strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">青岛、重庆、长沙、泉州、郑州</span></strong>安家;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">一、二梯队差距明显</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,杭州想来深圳买房,收入差距建议超10k;</span></section></li><li><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">而佛山、重庆若在东莞、成都买房,月收入需提高6k才能满足预算。</span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从</span><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">客群容量</span></strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 18px;"><strong>比例</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">来看:<strong>泉州、长沙、郑州、青岛超过20%的上班族可以住上好房子</strong></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">泉州、长沙、郑州</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">得益于低总价,客群容量比例最高,均超24%;</span></p></li><li><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">青岛、重庆、武汉、佛山</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">紧随其后,容量比例均超18%;</span></p></li><li><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">一线城市</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">来看:广州(4.8%)&gt;北京(1.8%)&gt;深圳(1.7%)&gt;上海(1.1%);</span></p></li><li><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">东莞、宁波</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">容量比例排序低于收入要求排序,购房人群多流出,与之相反的是<strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">西安、南通</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">。</span></p></li></ul><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 48px;">02&nbsp;</span></strong></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 23px;"><strong>有多少人可以“留下来”?</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;color: rgb(217, 33, 66);"><strong>只有17%的人来了才是深圳人</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">大城市的商品房价格高企,主要是服务少数群体,对于外来人口来说,<span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>能否在这个城市买得起房是能否留下来的重要标准</strong></span>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">假设选择使用二手房总价箱体图的下四分位作为购买门槛,并以此来计算<span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>收入要求及人群比例</strong></span>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图3:“普通住房”客群容量比例及购置收入要求</span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="469" data-ratio="0.975583864118896" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxIAGex3RBoLNJDd5NY6Y3gHXSLGuqtVZqAoyIkZ8zNMuhdtwzbtglXsEOqnkzNwWZFKbDWRCBRvw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="942" style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;text-align: justify;width: 546px;height: auto;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-size: 16px;">从</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">收入要求</span></strong></span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-size: 16px;">来看:</span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">杭州、宁波</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">的收入要求仅次于深圳,均高于广州,分别是10.9k、9.2k;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">一线城市</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">:上海(17.9k)&gt;北京(17.7k)&gt;深圳(16.3k)&gt;广州(8.6k);</span></section></li><li><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">而月收入仅需5k,便可在天津、西安、重庆、泉州、郑州、长沙扎根。</span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这个收入要求,基本可以理解为在这个<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>城市长期生活的门槛收入</strong></span>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">用通俗的话来说,如果没有积累或者一个好爸爸,在上海,你的收入低于1.79万/月,生活质量及可持续性是存疑的,大概率会成为我们之前定义的<strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">“城市流量人口”</span></strong>,来了几年就走了,留不下来。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从这点来看,不同城市差异还是很大。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">比如无锡,就只需要超过6500元一个月,基本上就可以没有长期生活压力;成都是5200元,难怪巴蜀人民可以那么安逸。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">容量比例</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">来看:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">泉州、佛山、郑州、长沙</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">有效客群比例均超50%,泉州达到67%;</span></p></li><li><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">一线城市</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">:广州(38%)&gt;深圳(17%)&gt;北京(13%)&gt;上海(12%);</span></p></li><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">9个城市容量比例低于24城均值41%。</span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这个比例情况,可以理解为有多少人可以<strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">留下来在该城市长期生活</span></strong>,以深圳为例,宣传口号是<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>“来了就是深圳人”</strong></span></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">。</span><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">真的吗?我不信!</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-size: 16px;">好多当年一起来的朋友、同学都走了。那有多少留下来了呢?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">答案是17%</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,就是每年平均来100个人,只有17%有条件留下,83%是过客。</span></section><p style="margin: 0px 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin: 0px 16px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 48px;">03&nbsp;</span></strong></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 23px;"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;">价格变化下的客群“容量弹性”?</span></strong></span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);"><strong>如果深圳降价10%,可以获得34.2%的客群增量</strong></span></span><o:p></o:p></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">当下的客群容量我们知道了,那要是随着时间的流逝,<strong>价格变了,有群容量变化如何呢?</strong></span><o:p></o:p></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">接下来引入客群容量弹性的概念,继续以二手房总价箱体图下四分位为基数(刚刚需),<span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>假定总价会在上下10%的幅度波动</strong></span>,继续计算价格变化下的城市客群容量。</span><o:p></o:p></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>以此为例,测算它的弹性箱体</strong></span>。</span><o:p></o:p></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: center;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图4:价格变化下的客群容量弹性</span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="1" data-cropsely2="315" data-ratio="0.5764023210831721" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxIAGex3RBoLNJDd5NY6Y3gdKG7ibYL8LMvEbX2L0QwSAqZh7LKiaStewkroicrHCY3yfumlibfRRibPHA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1034" style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;width: 546px;height: 315px;" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">受价格变化弹性较大的城市分别是的<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>东莞、杭州、宁波</strong></span>;而弹性较小的则是<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>长沙、郑州、上海</strong></span>。</span><o:p></o:p></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">以东莞为例,<strong>若房子降价10%</strong>,有效客群容量则增加10.2%,即100个人多了10个人买得起二手普通刚需住房;</span><o:p></o:p></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">以上海为例,<strong>若房子降价10%</strong>,有效客群容量则增加2.7%,即100个人多了2.7个人买得起二手普通刚需住房。</span><o:p></o:p></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">以上是客群比例视角,从实际应用角度来看,需要<span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>考虑到客群的基数差异</strong></span>,以降价为例:</span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.408px;text-align: center;">图5:考虑客群基数的</span><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.408px;text-align: center;">价格变化下的客群容量弹性</span></span><img class="rich_pages wxw-img js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="1.0820143884892086" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy4gJHvkQn23e0tW6ibjbRntqCiaOoBvvjmLXOvArLic97RA8TEBGUDeMN59RxRyeMQ69Daiab0gRblHQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="695" style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;" /></section><p style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 16px 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;font-size: 16px;">可以看到,同口径比较,<span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>深圳、北京、上海、东莞</strong></span>降价带来的潜在有效客群增长最多,而<strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">长沙、泉州、郑州、重庆</span></strong>效果有限。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 16px 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;font-size: 16px;">以<span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>深圳为例</strong></span>,若以买得起二手房普通住房(总价298万)来测算,当作置业门槛(可以理解为龙岗、光明等区域买个80平、3.5-4.0万单价的二手房),当前有效客群数量为3.0万人,若降价10%,将增加至4.1万人,在仅考虑支付力的情形下,多了34.2%,增量还是很大。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 16px 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;font-size: 16px;">所以,从政府的角度来说,有效地控制房价让外来人口留下来是个非常重要的举措,也是“人才大战”的一部分,特别是对于深圳这类外来人口占比高的移民城市。<br /></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 16px 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;font-size: 16px;">长沙、泉州、郑州</span></strong></span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;font-size: 16px;">大家可能会觉得很奇怪,我的理解是从白领上班族视角,郊区普通二手房基本都买的起,涨一点降一点与买不买关系很小,关键在于去不去。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 16px 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;font-size: 16px;">当然不同的置业标准、不同的总价对应的客群结构会有差异,以上仅是从最低门槛视角进行研判。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 16px 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;font-size: 16px;">其他城市,大家可以根据图表一一查阅,<strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">从客群总容量考量降价的必要性</span></strong>。</span></p><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong style="outline: 0px;"><span style="outline: 0px;line-height: 17.1px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 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