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集中供地对地产行业影响分析

发布于 2021-06-30

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rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align:right;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:right;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 5px;padding-right: 2em;padding-left: 2em;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;min-height: 1em;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-family: Futura-Medium;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 17px;background-color: rgb(56, 55, 54);font-family: PingFangSC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;+预计阅读时间5分钟&nbsp;</em></span></strong></span></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;text-align: center;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(73, 73, 73);font-size: 14px;font-family: PingFangSC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">「 正文共1831字 」</span></section></section><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 1px;line-height: 1.5em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;transform: translate3d(-25px, 0px, 0px);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 273px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="text-align:right;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">截至6月28日,今年已有20城完成了首轮“集中供地”的任务,而目前对集中供地影响的公开分析讨论大多比较零散,缺乏对地产经济变量之间相互作用的逻辑线条梳理,本文试图从“集中供地”的政策背景、政策目的及行业影响这三大方面进行分析。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5235792019347038" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzrcicjOaBEU1ILeVDhxTv6T6MiasJ9HicjqicxSN2YEF2tXvb5P0V58Vic70xSgfUVfbpQxYXe3QEGSRg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1654" style="" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-align: center;">—</span> 核心观点 —</span></strong></span></em><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">1、全国地产周期上行,土拍热度上行<br /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2、地产政策<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">从宽松向紧缩转换</span><strong style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);white-space: normal;"></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;">3、政策目的:稳地价、稳预期、稳房价</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;">4、<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-align: left;">集中供地</span>加剧房企间的分化,头部优势更明显</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;">5、改变行业业务模式,考验房企多元能力</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">///</span></section><p><br /></p><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-direction: column;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 10px;height: 8px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;align-self: flex-end;margin-bottom: -16.1px;margin-top: 8px;background: #ffffff;z-index: 1;margin-right: -4.1px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="1" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/X9SaMyWcMHNxeXEFX95ictyus2sNOw3vyzFbziaHyehUfGQJMZ1eHYKkZ7haph6cAUzGTF0Cq317B52jnxeCbB8g/640?wx_fmt=gif" data-type="gif" data-w="42" /></section><section style="text-align: center;padding: 8px 13px 7px 15px;border-top: 1px solid #565656;border-right: 1px solid #565656;border-bottom: 1px dashed #565656;border-left: 1px dashed #565656;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><p style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Semibold, PingFang SC;font-weight: bold;color: #565656;line-height: 22px;letter-spacing: 2px;" data-mid=""><br /></p><p style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Semibold, PingFang SC;font-weight: bold;color: #565656;line-height: 22px;letter-spacing: 2px;" data-mid=""><span style="font-size: 36px;">01</span></p><p style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Semibold, PingFang SC;font-weight: bold;color: #565656;line-height: 22px;letter-spacing: 2px;" data-mid="">&nbsp; &nbsp; 政策背景&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;</p><p style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Semibold, PingFang SC;font-weight: bold;color: #565656;line-height: 22px;letter-spacing: 2px;" data-mid=""><br /></p></section><section style="width: 14px;height: 10px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;background: #ffffff;margin-left: -7.1px;align-self: flex-start;margin-top: -17.1px;margin-bottom: 7px;z-index: 1;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="1" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_gif/lkClP1nMRFcOdV3wgl4RTQeP5eUwXyxvUsCRbYWhcvWpqAIiap0vy2vdtcVrIlE31dS5VeWUXk6onHQooLuttcw/640?wx_fmt=gif" data-type="gif" data-w="42" /></section></section></section></section><p>&nbsp;<br /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从房价增长周期来看,<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>目前2021年2季度</strong></span>,正处于2019年一季度增速峰值后的下降周期尾端之后的<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>景气区间开端</strong></span>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从统计局公布的70个大中城市房价数据来看,2021年5月,70个大中城市中有62个新建商品住宅上涨,环比持平;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从房价整体走势来看,5月新建商住价格同比上涨4.47%,环比增加0.02个百分点;</span></section><p><br /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7415458937198067" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzrcicjOaBEU1ILeVDhxTv6Tv0YGt1I7ZVibLrqicdV9WlibpTlsLUAXp0iaGYiab1SUVoClsN9Qks28V7Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="828" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">分城市能级来看,不同能级城市价格5月均延续趋同性上涨。由于70城作为全国节点型中心区域,其房价扩散系数可以作为全国房价变动的领先指标。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.6803097345132744" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzrcicjOaBEU1ILeVDhxTv6TcXpknVnapfSrPqsAJ9pUySXrnE1qzsFFcyiaNsHCcWicArpLPKorzjMg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="904" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从地产的政策周期看,历史上地产政策由收紧转向宽松的信号为:商品房销售面积增速大幅走负、土地溢价率低于 20%,代表地产基本面变差,此时政策面开始转向宽松。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">而<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>当前正处于从2020年初宽松期向紧缩的转换节点</strong></span>,疫情恢复后,销售面积增速迅速上行,土地溢价率上行,“五道红线”、严防经营贷流入房市、银行房贷占比上限,两集中拍地试点等政策接连出台,约束房企资金扩张效率,将相对熨平地产周期波动。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.566953797963978" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzrcicjOaBEU1ILeVDhxTv6T98bgUmFYzUweQ9MMfYfE9p8zZjlqcDnSMAOGIlKDOXlTfPqxjelWOw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1277" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">聚焦到22个集中供地试点城市,2019年二季度之后,销售面积开始跑赢70个大中城市的其他城市,<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>2021年初,集中供地城市平均房价涨幅跑赢大市,扮演市场领头羊角色。</strong></span></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.4396751740139211" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzrcicjOaBEU1ILeVDhxTv6Tm6Bsf9KXLetqA4LEaWiaXZQe7iabaFjtqEeoyhfjj4RNVfq8N3G9yticw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1724" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;</span></section><p><br /></p><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="white-space: normal;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 578px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-direction: column;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="margin-top: 8px;margin-right: -4.1px;margin-bottom: -16.1px;width: 10px;height: 8px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;align-self: flex-end;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);z-index: 1;"><img data-ratio="1" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/X9SaMyWcMHNxeXEFX95ictyus2sNOw3vyzFbziaHyehUfGQJMZ1eHYKkZ7haph6cAUzGTF0Cq317B52jnxeCbB8g/640?wx_fmt=gif" data-type="gif" data-w="42" /></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="padding: 8px 13px 7px 15px;text-align: center;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid solid dashed dashed;border-color: rgb(86, 86, 86);"><p data-mid="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Semibold, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(86, 86, 86);line-height: 22px;letter-spacing: 2px;"><br /></p><p data-mid="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Semibold, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(86, 86, 86);line-height: 22px;letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="font-size: 36px;">02</span></p><p data-mid="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Semibold, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(86, 86, 86);line-height: 22px;letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;政策目的&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p data-mid="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Semibold, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(86, 86, 86);line-height: 22px;letter-spacing: 2px;"><br /></p></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="margin-top: -17.1px;margin-bottom: 7px;margin-left: -7.1px;width: 14px;height: 10px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);align-self: flex-start;z-index: 1;"><img data-ratio="1" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_gif/lkClP1nMRFcOdV3wgl4RTQeP5eUwXyxvUsCRbYWhcvWpqAIiap0vy2vdtcVrIlE31dS5VeWUXk6onHQooLuttcw/640?wx_fmt=gif" data-type="gif" data-w="42" /></section></section></section></section><p>&nbsp;</p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2021年,两集中政策在以下图示22个城市中进行试点,结合前文提到的房价及政策周期背景,两集中政策目的可总结为以下三点:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;"><strong>1、土地市场降温,稳预期、稳地价、稳房价。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;"><strong>2、土地市场供应端信息透明化。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;"><strong>3、便于中央政府监控重点城市的土地市场。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">&nbsp;</section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.4522144522144522" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzrcicjOaBEU1ILeVDhxTv6TMm92XpsIGVibLoMNrNicKV4Ys7sDy88oCQ4Lunul5u8ibPDBCcNxcmgAw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1716" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">&nbsp;</section><p>&nbsp;</p><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="white-space: normal;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 578px;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-direction: column;"><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="margin-top: 8px;margin-right: -4.1px;margin-bottom: -16.1px;width: 10px;height: 8px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;align-self: flex-end;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);z-index: 1;"><img data-ratio="1" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/X9SaMyWcMHNxeXEFX95ictyus2sNOw3vyzFbziaHyehUfGQJMZ1eHYKkZ7haph6cAUzGTF0Cq317B52jnxeCbB8g/640?wx_fmt=gif" data-type="gif" data-w="42" /></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="padding: 8px 13px 7px 15px;text-align: center;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid solid dashed dashed;border-color: rgb(86, 86, 86);"><p data-mid="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Semibold, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(86, 86, 86);line-height: 22px;letter-spacing: 2px;"><br /></p><p data-mid="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Semibold, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(86, 86, 86);line-height: 22px;letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="font-size: 36px;">03</span></p><p data-mid="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Semibold, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(86, 86, 86);line-height: 22px;letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;政策影响&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p data-mid="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Semibold, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(86, 86, 86);line-height: 22px;letter-spacing: 2px;"><br /></p></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="margin-top: -17.1px;margin-bottom: 7px;margin-left: -7.1px;width: 14px;height: 10px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);align-self: flex-start;z-index: 1;"><img data-ratio="1" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_gif/lkClP1nMRFcOdV3wgl4RTQeP5eUwXyxvUsCRbYWhcvWpqAIiap0vy2vdtcVrIlE31dS5VeWUXk6onHQooLuttcw/640?wx_fmt=gif" data-type="gif" data-w="42" /></section></section></section></section><p><br /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">两集中政策的近端影响大体可以总结为:对投资资金的挤出效应与对投融营、供销回时间节奏的扰动两个方面,具体的变量影响路径细节推演去可以参考下图:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.40884312537855844" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzrcicjOaBEU1ILeVDhxTv6TANMTXqibsWicnc9yb27KYM2efsfibbJuplPnl8iaGRTT7tAGTICd8icE4Lg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1651" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">“两集中”可能对房企投资行为及政府供地行为有所扰动——降低房企现金流周转率,挤出新开工竣工等其他投资活动,使得拍地资金集中,热点地块关注度集中,冷点地块流拍集中,拍地后的开工、预售及开盘集中。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">如果同时考虑博弈行为,不同能级政府可能会互相错开供地时间以减少低能级城市流拍概率,可能促使房企增加合作拿地开发、加速周转、收并购纳储、多元渠道拿地,以避免库存项目不足或者集中扎堆预售开盘。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;"><strong>最终大概率利好低资金成本、强运营能力、强周转能力的龙头房企。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从集中供地的土地成交情况,可以发现城市间的热度分化与城市库存有较大联系。厦、渝、杭、深热度领先,而北方库存供应过剩城市则流拍概率较大。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.48025928108426635" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzrcicjOaBEU1ILeVDhxTv6T6ibdeGLVRwsDTctmgWAab1LGPWMQwbF17roO2VlkkgcWQCqSVBibmZvw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1697" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从拿地房企类型看,央企、国企在集中供地中拿地意愿更高,<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>龙头优势主要体现在以下三点:</strong></span></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">1、龙头房企资金量大、资金渠道优势明显,投资节奏统一安排后,拿地的次数和成功概率将大幅提升,规模效应进一步放大。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2、龙头房企标准化管理业内领先,集中供地后考验企业投融营一体化管理,“供销回”流程体系。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">3、龙头房企基本实现全国化布局,集团在投资标准化体系和投决研究方面积累较多,先发优势明显。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.40199530516431925" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzrcicjOaBEU1ILeVDhxTv6T2ib9gv571O1CYgvOAbLQ9veWrBVQ4654SJMGh3aMN9NrLkHQ90glJXA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1704" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从房企间合作模式看,集中供地中房企主要有以下三种合作模式:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>1、头部企业 &amp; 中小国企合作</strong></span>:头部房企诉求转变为改善报表,提升资产质量,目标是“做强”,中小国企目标为“做大”。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.19805194805194806" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzrcicjOaBEU1ILeVDhxTv6Teqj8jjCchG1Zh3ibiavUcg40jmgnJUtU8HcKMYK7LtayBDDWPeoHkXbA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1540" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>2、强强联合</strong></span>:头部房企&amp;区域优势房企形成合力,减少非理性竞争,缓解获取高总价地块的资金压力。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.16948051948051948" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzrcicjOaBEU1ILeVDhxTv6THSgkyx9bXFN0TeJqC8Qp7YQibI5JAaiapTpR6MdL7x5ibMD7UkCOdPqhQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1540" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>3、中型民企和国企合作</strong></span>:部分中型民企仍有一定的规模诉求,通过与国企央企合作实现扩张。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.170476812540823" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzrcicjOaBEU1ILeVDhxTv6TiaKPiasLyfK3tb9UzGsu5j8dIbsHGFQcYgHshYEVvAHYrtBaHqLPnppw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1531" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">集中供地对行业中长期影响主要体现在加剧房企间分化与改变行业业务模式两大方面:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;"><strong>一、加剧房企间的分化,头部优势更加明显。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">1)不同类型的房企获取土地资源的能力不同,与房企的资金筹措能力、投拓能力、区域深耕度、操盘能力等因素均有关。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2)集中供地下城市原有的深耕房企在拿地上更有优势,新进入者面临更高的壁垒,核心城市的竞争格局或进一步固化,强者更强。未来随着调控延续,头部优势可能更加明显。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 14px;"><strong>二、改变行业的业务模式,考验房企多元能力。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">1)集中供地将迫使房企对不同能级的城市采取不同的经营策略。集中供地下核心城市地块利润偏低,房企需要调整在不同城市的运营策略和价值诉求,在核心城市做规模、追求现金流;而在非核心城市更多追求利润。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2)土地端的高竞争或推动房企寻找多元化的拿地手段,如合作开发、旧改、收并购、勾地等,土地端的竞争将是未来行业的竞争重点之一。</span></section><p>&nbsp;</p><section data-role="paragraph" style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="caret-color: red;color: rgb(123, 127, 131);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans 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data-backh="13" data-backw="13" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="50" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="50" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIycoMZjGF8RrRlGEzqzackrSSVqK5SzNApiaN9vmWpNcEuzuMInkGCcu5SiaAn2iba30oI1cPAeJVnqw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);width: 50px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;height: 50px;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-cropselx1="1" data-cropselx2="103" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="104" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-width="50px" width="50px" data-backw="18" data-backh="18" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZfQibibfZGIkjRNwTHwQ4KNp3zu2sgMcS5VLib1OHNDwOibjnPpUoribI5IcQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="1" data-w="300" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);width: 50px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img data-ratio="1.0044247787610618" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzdKK1pWxDY25IjWC6hzyuZPClD30iaLtAVGt7UszT4kJMlymjsJz0yLneTFRIJS1jvpr56X0OGLrQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="226" data-width="50px" height="71" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 50px;" width="50px" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="47" data-backw="47" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZficyibw72OWmSMvgNNjSWoDHlf7aSgplp7dtCDAEFtJKHBnC8qaLHSIeQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);width: 50px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;" width="50px" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 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&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">SPECIAL THANKS</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 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