雪花勇闯天涯也失灵？主流产品销量骤降4%，重啤靠1664苦撑高端防线

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><strong><span leaf="">高盛2025年8月14日关于重庆啤酒（600132.SS）2025年第二季度业绩回顾报告</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;的详细内容总结：</span></p><p><strong><span leaf="">报告核心信息：</span></strong></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">发布机构：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;高盛（Goldman Sachs）</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r0:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">标的企业：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;重庆啤酒股份有限公司 (Chongqing Brewery Co., Ltd.)</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">股票代码：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;600132.SS（上交所）</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r2:"></span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100043571" data-ratio="0.5625" data-type="png" data-w="560" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkOB9DzshJYas7jOLnn41ianPfjFoMIMMrPwKwwEWOGc8ZhRfAP4s6NibWKD3PQaBpeIRUlq9gJ1meg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">报告日期：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;2025年8月14日</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r4:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">覆盖评级：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;中性（Neutral）</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">12个月目标价：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;人民币54.50元 (较当前价55.57元有&nbsp;</span><strong><span leaf="">1.9%下行空间</span></strong><span leaf="">)</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r6:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">报告性质：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;重庆啤酒公布2025年二季度及上半年业绩后的初步分析（First Take）</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r8:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">分析师观点：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;业绩大体符合预期，销售额与预期基本一致，但盈利不及预期（净利大幅低于预期），核心担忧在于税率上升和主流产品均价（ASP）疲软。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":ra:"></span></p></section></li></ul><h2><span leaf="">⚙ 关键业绩表现与分析</span></h2><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><p><strong><span leaf="">二季度（2Q25）表现：</span></strong></p></li><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">有效税率（Effective Tax Rate）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;大幅</span><strong><span leaf="">上升7.4个百分点至27.3%</span></strong><span leaf="">（比高盛预期高2.9个百分点），主要原因是西部地区优惠税率被重新审核（Review of preferential tax rate in West China regions）。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":rk:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">毛利率（Gross Profit Margin）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;提升</span><strong><span leaf="">0.8个百分点至51.2%</span></strong><span leaf="">（略好于高盛预期的51.0%）。主要得益于</span><strong><span leaf="">单位成本下降3.4%</span></strong><span leaf="">（成本利好），部分抵消了ASP下滑1.9%的负面影响。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":rm:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">核心营业利润（Core OP）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;同比下降0.9%（比高盛预期低2.5个百分点）。原因：</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">净利率（Net Profit Margin）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;同比下降1.1个百分点至8.7%，主要受前述税率上升驱动，另外也受投资/财务收益减少以及更高的非经营支出影响。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":rq:"></span></p></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span leaf="">销售税费及附加比率上升0.2个百分点。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":ro:"></span></p></section></li><li><section><span leaf="">销售及管理费用率（SG&amp;A expense ratio）上升0.3个百分点。</span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">销量（Volume）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;91.7万千升，同比持平（0%）。好于高盛预期的下滑0.4%。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":rg:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">均价（ASP）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;同比下降1.9%（差于高盛预期的下降0.4%），主要受产品结构变化（向较低端产品倾斜）影响。</span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">营收（Sales）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;人民币44.84亿元，同比下降1.8%。高盛预（GSe）为下降0.4%，基本符合（Largely in line）。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":rc:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">啤酒销售额（Beer Sales）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;人民币43.62亿元，同比下降1.9%。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":re:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">净利润（Net Profit）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;人民币4.93亿元，同比下降12.7%。</span><strong><span leaf="">显著低于</span></strong><span leaf="">高盛预期的5.42%/增长4.1%。</span><strong><span leaf="">主要拖累因素是有效税率大幅上升</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":ri:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">主要盈利影响因素：</span></strong></li><li><strong><span leaf="">经营现金流（Operating Cash Flows）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;为人民币16亿元，同比增长6%，表现稳健。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":rs:"></span></p></section></li></ul><li><p><strong><span leaf="">上半年（1H25）表现：</span></strong></p></li><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">营收（Sales）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;人民币88.4亿元，同比下降0.2%。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":ru:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">净利润（NP）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;人民币8.65亿元，同比下降4.0%。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r10:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">销量增长：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;同比增长0.95%，</span><strong><span leaf="">跑赢</span></strong><span leaf="">行业整体产量下降0.3%的水平。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r12:"></span></p></section></li></ul><li><p><strong><span leaf="">按产品层级分析：</span></strong></p></li><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">2Q25:</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;销售额同比</span><strong><span leaf="">增长+5%</span></strong><span leaf="">。（注：原文前后有重复，但增长幅度一致）。</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">1H25:</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;同比增长**+5.4%**。</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">亮点品牌：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;“风花雪月”（Wind Flower Snow Moon）上半年增长强劲（中50%+）。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r1a:"></span></p></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">2Q25:</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;销售额同比</span><strong><span leaf="">下降4%</span></strong><span leaf="">。与Q1的增长2.0%相比明显减速（GSe为-4.1%）。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r18:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">1H25:</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;同比下降</span><strong><span leaf="">0.9%</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">2Q25:</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;销售额同比</span><strong><span leaf="">下降1%</span></strong><span leaf="">。（高盛预期未提及但好于主流）。</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">1H25:</span></strong><strong><span leaf="">基本持平（Flattish）</span></strong><section><span leaf="">。</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">增长来源：</span></strong></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">嘉士伯（Carlsberg）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;Q2销量增长20%+（春节期间品牌活动后的强劲势头延续）。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r14:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">乐堡（Tuborg）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;上半年销量实现低个位数（LSD%）增长。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r16:"></span></p></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">高端产品（Premium）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;表现相对坚韧。</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">主流产品（Mainstream）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;面临压力。</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">低端产品（Economic）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;增长显著。</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">各层级占比（2Q25）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;高端61%，主流37%，低端2%（与Q1和上年同期基本持平）。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r1c:"></span></p></section></li></ul><li><p><strong><span leaf="">按地区分析（2Q25）：</span></strong></p></li><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">西北（Northwest）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;销售</span><strong><span leaf="">增长+2%</span></strong><span leaf="">。（表现最佳）</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">华中（Central）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;销售</span><strong><span leaf="">下降-3%</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">华南（South）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;销售</span><strong><span leaf="">下降-5%</span></strong><span leaf="">。 (表现最弱)</span></section></li></ul><li><p><strong><span leaf="">按渠道分析（2Q25）：</span></strong></p></li><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">批发渠道（Wholesale channel）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;销售额同比下降1.5%。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r1e:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">经销商数量：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;2025年底为3,091家（比Q1末增加11家，当时为3,080家）。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r1g:"></span></p></section></li></ul></ol><p><span leaf="">📅 即将举行的分析师会议</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">时间：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;2025年8月15日香港时间晚上9:30。</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">关键关注点（Focal Points）：</span></strong></li><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span leaf="">高端化趋势和分品牌发展计划。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r1i:"></span></p></section></li><li><section><span leaf="">反腐败政策（Anti-extravagance policy，报告提及6月起对社交消费渠道产生影响）对现饮渠道（On-trade channels）的影响。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r1k:"></span></p></section></li><li><section><span leaf="">商业投资策略（Commercial investment strategy）。</span></section></li><li><section><span leaf="">旺季销售进展更新（Peak season sales progress）。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r1m:"></span></p></section></li><li><section><span leaf="">2025年下半年及2026年的成本展望（Cost outlook）。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r1o:"></span></p></section></li></ol></ul><h2><span leaf="">📈 目标价、风险与方法论</span></h2><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">估值方法（Valuation Methodology）：</span></strong></li><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span leaf="">基于</span><strong><span leaf="">19.0倍2026年预测市盈率（2026E P/E）</span></strong><span leaf="">，贴现回2025年中（0.5年贴现期）。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r1q:"></span></p></section></li><li><section><span leaf="">此估值倍数与全球同业的5年历史平均周期倍数一致。</span></section></li><li><section><span leaf="">维持</span><strong><span leaf="">中性评级(Neutral)</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></section></li></ul><li><strong><span leaf="">主要风险（Risks）：</span></strong></li><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">乌苏品牌（Wusu）增长：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;慢于或快于预期。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r1s:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">产品均价（ASP）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;提升幅度更高或更低。</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">成本趋势：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;优于或差于预期。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r1u:"></span></p></section></li></ul></ol><h2><span leaf="">📌 重要说明</span></h2><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">利益冲突披露（Conflict of Interest Disclosure）：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;高盛明确声明其业务（包括投行业务）覆盖报告所涉及的公司（即重庆啤酒），可能存在利益冲突，提醒投资者需考虑此报告的客观性限制。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r20:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">目标价格图表：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;附件包含公司历史评级和目标价格图表。</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">公司特定监管披露：</span></strong><section><span leaf="">&nbsp;高盛在过去12个月内与重庆啤酒有投行服务关系，并且未来3个月内可能寻求或接受重庆啤酒的投行业务报酬。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r22:"></span></p></section></li></ul><p><span leaf="">💎&nbsp;</span><strong><span leaf="">总结关键信息：重庆啤酒Q2业绩的核心问题在于税务负担显著加重（税率飙升）和主流产品均价（ASP）疲软（受产品结构不利变化影响），导致利润大幅不及预期。尽管成本下降带来毛利率改善，且高端产品相对坚韧，但整体盈利能力和短期前景在税负压力和现饮渠道政策影响下承压。</span></strong></p><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r24:"></span></p><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>