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预判根据 | 未来地产行业20万亿的规模从哪里来

发布于 2019-03-14

<p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">行业主流观点认为,15万亿的年销售金额,或许就是中国房地产行业销售规模的天花板。</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">禾略从机械的数据预测模型的角度,预测未来十年,行业规模或将保持在20-30万亿的规模。(</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247485182&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=d9b78056fb35c418ca570e2bc7882d4f&amp;chksm=97557cdaa022f5ccb6caeb86c20d0b996ec8c83bb7ec88b7df01f03c73081b49c2766b1e2b38&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-itemshowtype="0" data-linktype="2" style="font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">详情回顾</span></a><span style="font-size: 14px;">)</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">对此,很多同行表示疑惑——过去10年,商品房销售额从2万亿,跃升到13万亿,主要是因为广义货币的增长。</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2008-2018年,M2增幅284%,商品房销售额增幅496%,也就是说,<span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">过去10年,广义货币量翻了3倍,地产行业规模就翻了5倍。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 14px;"><strong><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="556" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="274" data-ratio="0.49334073251942284" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIx464liaGPmIqUrDKsx8fRGm3RxYq1batE4EvId9lBRSJKm0TDr9ntHXQClN72bakCMFiaGAkSo7lYQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1802" style="height: 274px;text-align: center;white-space: normal;width: 556px;" /></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 14px;"><strong>可见房地产的增长,确实依赖货币增长,但这并不是增长的全部,行业规模的扩大,还有一大部分,是源于更多城市的城市化。</strong></span></p><p><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">在2008年,行业规模只有2万亿的时候,我们很难想象10年后,会有13万亿的规模。毕竟当时的一线城市,城市化已经相当成熟。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从城市化率来看,低于70%的,城市发展在加速阶段的下半场,人口由农村及小城市同时向大城市转移。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.35765673175745116" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIx464liaGPmIqUrDKsx8fRGmHfx0ajKny1xPO93ppoaaT6HK9wZ4ET6GRwCGicJpHel95Z1qzJc7oMA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="973" style="" /></p><p><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;text-align: left;">在2008-2018年期间,一线城市,城市化率基本高于80%,城市发展稳定在“郊区城市化”的阶段,城市建设围绕“大都市圈”开展。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;text-align: left;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;text-align: left;">与此同时,以省会中心城市为例,强二线城市,城市化率大都70%以下,跃升到70%以上,城市发展从“加速阶段”,迈向“郊区化”阶段,城市进入规模结构优化时期。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="556" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="296" data-ratio="0.5317401045556386" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIx464liaGPmIqUrDKsx8fRGmdYfIu0OHrjLOTbKj3H8wt6w74WCsGu7nicKxGe5oKHicdL4qRCPqdJ4g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1339" style="width: 556px;height: 295px;" /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从商品住宅销售占比也可以看出,以北上广深为代表的一线城市,占全国的比重越来越小,从2008年的19%,降至2017年的9%。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">可见,</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>过去10年,虽然一线城市房价涨势惊人,但全国商品住宅销售额的贡献巨头,其实是二三四五六七八线的城市,正是由于快速的城市化进程,带来中国房地产行业规模,从2万亿跃升至13万亿。</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="1.3598200899550226" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIx464liaGPmIqUrDKsx8fRGmaZP8ibiamq3O1SaLWoIM7GspN0gdKKDXbVIwPD8cF2wMoWX8oibL45yXg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1334" style="" /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">一方面,正如我们分析的,</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-size: 14px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">中国不通过人民币汇率单向贬值,来刺激出口,为保持国际竞争力,实现经济软着陆,必然要将产业转移到原材料、人力成本更加低廉的地方</span>,</span><span style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">实现真正的成本下降。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">故持续加大对内陆二三线城市的市政基础投资,与产业转移,将势在必行。</span><span style="font-size: 14px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">中国的城市化发展,将会从全力发展若干重点城市,转变为全面发展都市圈、省会中心城市和区域中心城市,继而进一步推动全国的城市化。</span></strong></span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">另一方面,<span style="font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">从中国人口年龄结构变化来看,2025年之前,25-50岁的人口数量依然处于历史最大峰值,人口红利将持续到2030年。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">人口的稳定增长,必然带来货币的增长,要知道过去10年,M2翻了3倍,房地产规模就翻了5倍,结合<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247485182&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=d9b78056fb35c418ca570e2bc7882d4f&amp;chksm=97557cdaa022f5ccb6caeb86c20d0b996ec8c83bb7ec88b7df01f03c73081b49c2766b1e2b38&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-itemshowtype="0" data-linktype="2">量化预判</a>,未来十年,行业规模到达20万亿,只是一种纯粹理性的思考结果。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><img class="__bg_gif " data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.8571428571428571" data-type="gif" data-w="700" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/zd226QNNqG7Zh3oib1hm5ZBRxibEAwZ0rzCpWfsS2E8fkCaNWbszT9CrLpXaHR8YFnlX7GeG7CuTWzLLRibI1uSmg/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 677px !important;" /></span></span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">但值得注意的是,</span><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2019-2020年是周期转换节点,未来很乐观,但转换节点上,依然是控制风险比追求增长更为重要。</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></strong></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">我们尝试拿M2的历年数据,做了多个周期的滤波分析,可以很郁闷的发现,不论在什么周期的滤波里,</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">目前我们都处于,这一轮信用扩张的周期高点,接下来将不可避免,迎来一波信用收缩。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="1.077562326869806" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-w="722" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG7Zh3oib1hm5ZBRxibEAwZ0rzYOEdYhIoujpH7f7iczKA3apnicj0ux80l28D4z1pvIm4CJepVqicZhwrQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 677px !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">因此,</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">即便未来十年,我们的经济依然大有可为,房地产即将迈入全新的黄金时代,但是在当下,我们需要做好应对信用收缩,带来的经济下行的冲击。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">经营上,尤其要做好现金流的管理,只有穿越了寒冬,才能迎来春天;投资上,经济的核心发动机,从进出口贸易,转为固定资产投资。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">意味着,过去充分享受进出口红利的沿海城市,要见顶回落,而固定资产投资空间巨大的内陆中心城市,将乘风而上,开发商应该加快城市投资布局调整,和品类开发能力更迭。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">—— END ——</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;line-height: 27.2px;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">猜你想再看<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;line-height: 27.2px;widows: 1;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;line-height: 27.2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">城市:</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831649&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=191239418c15b0c6f395c843415da5fd&amp;chksm=8351793eb426f028970ac64031955167bfde997cdc96375bfb3bce25b5076f1458e11be2be27&amp;token=217203186&amp;lang=zh_CN&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">徐州</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831649&amp;idx=4&amp;sn=3a8acfb05820bbd38cd7b15a58e92ec9&amp;chksm=8351793eb426f028dfd96ec6ffc5239a84aaf25b6643813aa6b4a597b9a3215e7ab25e2b4eaf&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">宿迁</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831649&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=1fcdc66fac79d5ba9504bc24314a14f9&amp;chksm=8351793eb426f02829eef9ba1dfcb8c3e91edb05d3c1d34c548b82f618928834f1da5907d2e7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">淮北</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831649&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=18d65f24543e71ff6bc70eb1cb0a7bde&amp;chksm=8351793eb426f028b98805f0f7555bfc57e3aefe6c76e7ca8df0369ad5dcc4a593a011a9b029&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">唐山</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831649&amp;idx=5&amp;sn=9f550e5d1f6bd3becc92df723adedd61&amp;chksm=8351793eb426f0289523b13ecd4fcb3d227a3cb259a09e504d388ace5a5eb25ece3aecfe8d46&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">天津</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831491&amp;idx=4&amp;sn=4c4fb5ce9d25c1fe6012d719c5878c82&amp;chksm=8351799cb426f08a8a6b9f35c8db84ceac56401b6da4a6429d1bc5e3339251db372a5045c242&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">深汕</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=5&amp;sn=c2d8bae147d4a2d86ec992c50c39ddad&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a50b1acbe92593aabba12c3fb95e9966d93ecad99918dbcf654b9ce767405&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">哈尔滨</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831491&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=1e787f725d62f227dbc6c33d0b9ea3eb&amp;chksm=8351799cb426f08accd8896c160b37e7a4436d21e1fbf2cc596763115db5ef6e04dc914ce478&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">兰州</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=4&amp;sn=048088acd651254d77cc238d71b1af04&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a7c36e33460f244db68a856502151c73820b314470b7e24412b9a8b6dcd5b&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">常德</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831491&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=b6295a149a38a026e886d81014b568f3&amp;chksm=8351799cb426f08a8a8d7adbd8721956fd91c59be8bd1ec35d4f9963a11e7e67bee72cd49405&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">南宁</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=8&amp;sn=0efaff09c26e604d7aa5c29376c129ad&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07abb37dd11a0cfe941868be2b543feebf288460418759254327292658947ae&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">桂林</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=12f08ffb076544edcbc24e91bc3d87d7&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a1cd4530a9033d462d4732c500dcdda723bdc3a87f4d55f1c62f657a4cb77&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">柳州</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=6&amp;sn=0a89c4ab17039cec25754aa111b87308&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a6fdc14a1c0e877928f2fa46798a8b592b2b2023ad1c65081bbc80b2fafad&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">蚌埠</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=7&amp;sn=1bc72e377ffc3b621c2886d68c437515&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07adc8c50a3e1409197892c508ad9c27a6b52f8e4dde12740baf5674f5a7fa6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">合肥</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831491&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=10e3d481f7fd0ff46dafe2648cd3ddfb&amp;chksm=8351799cb426f08a5118705d6b85487fa97dd013a2aee842be719ee13086aab8dee370b54185&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">南京</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9ffda0c7d9667d6700966a8bab12eccf&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a4e94a2471b2d59264ed4460e0567c63095fad9c5704541a546d7bc23584a&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">上海临港</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831065&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2ffb60d98d02ebcab655c55d34d0acbf&amp;chksm=83517746b426fe509cc721e0e3acf05fd1f60b8695dc3b66c08c0a7aa917e7471b013b02c2c2&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">太原</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830804&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f571d8218b897b21571a6b2f497d3a1b&amp;chksm=8351744bb426fd5d509591673f4082563a02342283f53dfda255ad33304e6746d6448051b9ea&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">温州</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830454&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=4e7c3289190e2a69c5fb20f2ae8a6d94&amp;chksm=835175e9b426fcffa5f65cafe5274b1c296caf1a51e13ef4c7920c5a18847bef3c7b13c2bfd0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">昆明</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830295&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f680ffa2ddf52783e9a7730971520d48&amp;chksm=83517248b426fb5e0efc1e5c62d15b173e4d23ab7aafaab82c6ce861e98d96271fe5dc7db798&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">嘉兴</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830278&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8441ac780477cd9def8d4e9d7866f143&amp;chksm=83517259b426fb4f93ff50f1c07d7b830f16ec4d1e0c23f64ef15a78a056ae301274ffbb8ec3&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">重庆</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830196&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7a599cf338734c1d41c6fa16005b1641&amp;chksm=835172ebb426fbfdda6873adbeddc124ae670de675a7c36d11977106150a1d924572ea70f299&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">成都</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830221&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f5994dbfe9fa00ffce4b5be1a69f3244&amp;chksm=83517292b426fb8419e771cf48ea94de01fc7dc909b4e8c2759c6423b8be6080bc5bd1c248cc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">深圳</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=cd78421e4f2e724f552f8eefc65e0236&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa26aed46ed566bc1f8ffa11498370fed14fa9d0690795a3eff5a186c63a03d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">上海</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829512&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=421f2b766d75009082de8fc1e81cd8d2&amp;chksm=83517157b426f84197c93fd852a3e3f93019c9d81e099784ad0aa09f326ca9dd33a0edb7cfd7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">珠三角</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829480&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c77baf137c109f1017170a708548d37b&amp;chksm=835171b7b426f8a1d942708988b8f4bd875366f5928d1db99470ccad6958aa0c8cd47b292c23&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">雄安新区</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=401964235&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8839375241e6a7e69f49aec108ca1ad6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">无锡</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=203026648&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=466dca69ff3eb746e2e5c21831d57f0f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">北京</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;line-height: 27.2px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">热点:</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831957&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=a889b497d60264ef90aea585e4d4556f&amp;chksm=83517bcab426f2dc5e2b3778bc8e8834b453c4eac98c490ebeb525c4a5b01093fe602418b8fb&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">美国地产</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831073&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b9e813dced68e2e1397bd2cc2b6d05c7&amp;chksm=8351777eb426fe68993e996d9312897701ad0e93a7703c5d719dc20ebf09a1b0c6715f502e4d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">长租公寓</span></a><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830578&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=73f5149b299d5ce19a433c365eedee83&amp;chksm=8351756db426fc7b173558a1765830766ec5f7fb387e652250f10a106ef6490821f809722cfb&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">中美贸易战</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830503&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2fae9eec64a6ed71f0c4ee9e4e9bafe7&amp;chksm=835175b8b426fcaec41bb2a484ef939ac78474c77acde2d96a6f7f8b61a0f4ade630c13e7f90&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">粤港澳</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830398&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=ffd40b9cb7730bd712d8f053280d6fa9&amp;chksm=83517221b426fb37e97b45db61547227724f5a09e6a2a0484a55475066ac41fc1b0165954d0d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">万科商业</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830360&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=3cea24af7ebf848fde74c52538f111e5&amp;chksm=83517207b426fb11a1ae1c301117e9626ba09012aa9d8b4d8f722e45423ecb7e63987f50bec5&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2018年走势</a>&nbsp;|<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">专业:</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831987&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8553537eb64de48a9b7eb16564fe8988&amp;chksm=83517becb426f2fa0c63ef59ace65085334609b45795331170f0edb7f455d154c06d53aa85f7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">穿越熊市</a></span>&nbsp;<span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;">|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831371&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9b15fe316680aabc64e2b7c37e5767d8&amp;chksm=83517614b426ff0229de8ab490c6a7fb33f9e7de34bae145abd3565818c5965c1eca5a4b0029&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">地产研报</a>&nbsp;</span>|&nbsp;<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831103&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6ae2c7ba214abd19c76ed907399b77b7&amp;chksm=83517760b426fe767422812a59d53a334c00664a2cc146d59a076bc0e59a062f518c7df00861&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">投资</a>&nbsp;|<a 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href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830457&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=37a5c454028fb849c2c5fce3b3575756&amp;chksm=835175e6b426fcf07c9d8fdee249e33edf0ae7f5684be2290c3145624ad430d880a10a654ebd&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2018房地产报告</a>&nbsp;</span>|&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830201&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=1816623486b879233513443f1df6ec59&amp;chksm=835172e6b426fbf07aa0f023c3ff79ca1cf11606fc2f2b66cfe773222e3fa1df7f92affa90b6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">远郊定位&nbsp;</a>|&nbsp;<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829710&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=58d632f4b07dc0796127ef5df605bb36&amp;chksm=83517091b426f9871fa25aed40ade8d757557347ecf505d8b9510645b5adcc6d703caed90b31&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(87, 107, 149);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;outline: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">时势蓝图</a>&nbsp;|</span></p><p><br /></p>

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