官网首页 › 研究观点 › 观点正文

香港楼市下半年会涨?美联集团透露这些关键信号!

发布于 2025-09-03

<blockquote style="margin: 6px 0px;padding: 6px 12px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;border-left: 4px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.08);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;"><span leaf="">香港楼市正站在十字路口,降息预期与政策博弈之间,普通购房者和投资者都需要看清数据背后的真相。</span></p></blockquote><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">8月22日,JP摩根发布了关于香港房地产市场的最新研究报告,该报告基于美联集团(Midland Holdings)2025年上半年的业绩简报会。作为香港主要房地产中介之一,美联对市场有着独特的洞察力。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">报告显示,美联对香港楼市持**“谨慎乐观”态度**,预计如果下半年降息成为现实,住宅价格有望增长3-5%。这一判断背后有着复杂的数据支撑和市场逻辑。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><hr style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;border-width: 0.5px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.08);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h2 style="margin-top: 0px !important;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">01 成交量上升背后,低价房成为主力军</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">2025年上半年,香港楼市表面上出现了“销售良好”的局面。数据显示,一手房和二手房销售数量同比分别增长8%和2%。然而,仔细分析就会发现隐藏在背后的真相。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">尽管销售数量增加,但</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">一手房销售总价值却同比下降了20%</span></strong><span leaf="">,二手房销售总价值则与去年同期基本持平。这一现象背后的原因是:销售增长几乎完全集中在价值400万港元以下的单位。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">2025年第一季度印花税放宽后,400万港元以下单位的销售量同比猛增306%。相比之下,</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">400万港元以上的单位销售量反而下降了4%</span></strong><span leaf="">。这表明市场动力主要来自政策刺激下的低价房需求。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">02 本地买家回归,但信心尚未完全恢复</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">自2023年以来,内地买家一直是香港楼市的主导力量,在2024年和2025年前七个月的一手房销售价值中分别占50%和44%。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">2025年出现了一个重要变化:</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">本地买家开始变得更加活跃</span></strong><span leaf="">。前七个月,本地买家在一手和二手房市场的购买量分别同比增长26%和3%。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">与此同时,内地买家的一手房购买量实际上同比下降了5.5%。美联指出,本地买家的信心尚未完全恢复,这解释了为什么看房量的增长远远超过实际成交量的增长。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">03 一二手房价格倒挂,开发商以价换量</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">由于库存水平较高,开发商在新项目定价上保持保守态度。截至第二季度,美联跟踪的一手房项目相比同类二手房仍然存在</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">8.3%的价格折扣</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">虽然这一折扣相比第一季度略有收窄,但仍然对二手房价格增长构成拖累。美联观察到,越来越多的二手房卖家开始保持信心,不再轻易降价。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">这可能导致二手房市场成交时间延长,特别是在一手市场因价格折扣吸引更多购买力的情况下。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">04 降息预期与政策博弈,决定下半年走势</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">截至目前,香港房价指数仅微增0.6%。美联认为,只要降息成为现实,</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">2025年下半年房价可能增长3-5%</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">这一乐观展望还得到以下因素支持:销售率从2024年的58%提升至2025年的64%;新供应量正在下降。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">如果“Property Connect”政策实施,美联相信这将进一步推动楼市,因为内地需求将会激增。美联的价格展望比仲量联行(JLL)更为乐观,后者预计2025财年房价将同比下降约5%。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">05 区域分化明显,学区房表现突出</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">美联观察到,靠近大学和学校的公寓非常受欢迎,租金收益率较高。通常来说,更受内地买家青睐的区域(如启德、黄竹坑)表现良好。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">而主要受本地买家欢迎的区域仍然面临压力。2025年,半山区和湾仔区的关注度大幅上升。与此同时,南区和其他较偏远区域仍然面临挑战。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">这种区域分化现象</span></strong><span leaf="">表明香港楼市正在经历结构性调整,不同需求和偏好的买家正在寻找不同的价值洼地。</span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">06 投资建议:不同类型投资者的选择</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">基于对市场的分析,报告提出了针对不同类型投资者的建议。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">在开发商中,看好太古地产(Swire Prop)和领展房产基金(Link REIT);在开发商中,推荐信和置业(Sino)。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">对于风险偏好较高的投资者,在开发商中推荐恒隆地产(Hang Lung)和九龙仓集团(Wharf REIC);在开发商中推荐恒基兆业(Henderson)。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">这些建议反映了对不同企业基本面和估值水平的判断,投资者需要根据自身风险承受能力做出选择。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><hr style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;border-width: 0.5px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.08);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><p style="margin-top: 0px !important;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">9月17日将成为关键时间节点,香港政策宣示和利率决定将同日公布。如果这两方面都没有带来意外惊喜,市场可能会面临短期获利了结的压力。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">但从一年期的视角来看,香港楼市的基本面(住宅和零售)仍然具有建设性。市场正在</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">寻找新的平衡点</span></strong><span leaf="">,在政策支持与市场需求之间,在本地买家与内地买家之间,在短期波动与长期趋势之间。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">普通购房者和投资者需要超越标题数字,深入理解市场的结构性变化,才能做出明智的决策。</span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

← 返回观点全库