官网首页 › 研究观点 › 观点正文

香港HIBOR急升背后:是经济增长的逆风还是银行股的机遇?

发布于 2025-09-03

<blockquote style="margin: 6px 0px;padding: 6px 12px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;border-left: 4px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.08);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;"><span leaf="">市场波动往往隐藏着投资机会,关键是如何在不确定性中寻找确定性</span></p></blockquote><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">8月以来,香港银行同业拆息(HIBOR)突然大幅攀升,1个月期HIBOR从6月份的0.5%一路飙升至</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">2.86%</span></strong><span leaf="">,引发市场广泛关注。这一急剧变化对香港经济、房地产市场以及银行业将产生怎样的影响?普通投资者又该如何看待这一现象?</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">HIBOR为何突然飙升?</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">要理解HIBOR急升的原因,我们需要关注香港的流动性状况。截至8月13日,香港银行体系总结余已降至</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">537亿港元</span></strong><span leaf="">,接近5月初注资前的446亿港元水平。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">香港银行公会此前曾指出,当总结余降至500亿港元左右时,HIBOR就会开始快速上升。实际情况印证了这一判断——流动性紧缩直接推高了银行间的资金成本。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">另一方面,外汇市场上投资者大量做多美元/港元的利差交易(carry trade)。随着港元融资成本上升,这一交易的吸引力下降,投资者开始调整头寸,进一步加剧了港元利率的上行压力。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><em style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">图示:当总结余低于500亿港元时,HIBOR呈指数级上升</span></em><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">HIBOR会升至什么水平?</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">根据历史数据,当前总结余水平对应的1个月期HIBOR合理区间应该在**3.5%-3.8%**之间。这意味着目前的2.86%可能还不是终点。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">不过考虑到市场对美联储降息的预期以及头寸调整逐渐完成,HIBOR更可能落在这一区间的下端而非上端。如果美元/港元汇率触及7.75的强方兑换保证水平,或者美联储提前且加快降息步伐,都将有助于HIBOR从高位回落。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">对香港经济的影响:短期承压,长期可期</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">HIBOR的快速上升为香港短期经济增长带来了不确定性。如果未来几个月1个月期HIBOR维持在3%以上,将逆转超低利率对第二季度经济增长的支持作用。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">消费者和企业可能会重新评估近期的投资和消费决策</span></strong><span leaf="">,借贷意愿也会受到抑制。加上出口前置效应的消退以及全球需求疲软,预计2025年下半年香港实际GDP增长率将放缓至</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">2.1%</span></strong><span leaf="">(低于上半年的3.1%)。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><em style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">香港经济增长预计将在下半年放缓</span></em></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">好消息是,随着美联储降息周期的重启(预计累计降息175个基点),香港利率将在明年出现更持续的下降,推动2026年经济增长小幅回升至</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">2.2%</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">房地产市场:短期利空,长期依然看好</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">尽管HIBOR急升,但我们仍然对香港住宅市场保持建设性看法。原因如下:</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">最关键的在于,</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">最优惠利率(Prime Rate)的走势比HIBOR更重要</span></strong><span leaf="">。虽然HIBOR大幅上升导致实际按揭利率触及3.5%的上限(最优惠利率减1.75%),但未来美联储降息将推动最优惠利率下行。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">预计到2026年底,最优惠利率将至少下降100个基点,使实际按揭利率降至</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">2.5%</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">左右。这一利率水平将低于</span></strong><span leaf="">3.6%</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;的毛租金收益率,形成正利差,继续吸引投资者购买香港房产。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><em style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">即使利率上升,正利差格局依然保持</span></em></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">其他支持因素包括:年内迄今租金指数已上涨</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">4%</span></strong><span leaf="">,且预计将继续上升;港股市场回暖(恒生指数年内上涨</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">25%</span></strong><span leaf="">)提振了市场信心;库存水平持续下降;内地买家活跃(占整体交易的</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">40-50%</span></strong><span leaf="">),额外印花税的取消增加了吸引力。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">在个股选择上,偏好恒基地产(Henderson Land)、香港置地(HK Land)和领展房产基金(Link REIT),建议避免新世界发展(NWD),因其高杠杆和负债水平在利率上升环境中更为脆弱。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">银行业:净利息收入提升与信贷质量压力的平衡</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">对香港银行而言,HIBOR上升带来了双重影响。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">利好的一面是净利息收入(NII)的提升</span></strong><span leaf="">。如果HIBOR在今年下半年维持在2.75%(根据当前远期曲线),相比我们模型中假设的1.5%的平均水平,仅此一项就可能使2025年税前利润增加</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">1.1-1.3%</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><em style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">HIBOR上升对银行净利息收入的影响</span></em><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">挑战的一面是信贷质量可能面临压力</span></strong><span leaf="">。higher市场利率将进一步考验银行的信贷质量,尤其是本地银行的香港商业地产(CRE)敞口。汇丰银行上半年业绩已经显示出这方面的一些恶化迹象。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">多元化国际银行在价值和安全性方面更具优势。 overweight汇丰控股(HSBC)和渣打银行(Standard Chartered),而对本地银行持更加谨慎的态度。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">联系汇率制度是否面临威胁?</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">尽管总结余下降,但我们认为联系汇率制度(LERS)并不会有危险。总结余只是香港货币基础的一小部分(当前占比</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">2.6%</span></strong><span leaf="">),并非外汇储备。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">总结余本身的下落会导致HIBOR飙升,这反而成为联系汇率制度的“自动稳定器”。同时,金管局的流动性美元资产一直保持在其流动性港元负债(即货币基础)的</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">1.1倍</span></strong><span leaf="">,外汇储备与广义货币的比率目前为</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">37%</span></strong><span leaf="">,远高于IMF为开放经济体设定的</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">20%</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;的充足水平。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">维持港元钉住美元汇率制度对香港具有战略重要性:香港作为连接中国与西方世界的关键门户,稳定的港元/美元汇率有助于在没有汇率风险的情况下促进资本自由流动;失去稳定的货币锚(钉住汇率)可能导致金融和经济波动性急剧增加。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">投资启示:在波动中寻找机会</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">当前HIBOR的波动既带来了挑战,也创造了机会。对于固定收益投资者,维持支付5年期港元利率互换(IRS) versus收取5年期美元IRS的交易,目标-35bp,止损-90bp,以应对HIBOR继续正常化的趋势。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">对股票投资者而言,银行股可能从NII提升中受益,但需警惕信贷质量风险;地产股短期可能承压,但长期基本面依然稳健,回调可能是布局机会。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">香港市场历来善于在波动中找到新的平衡点</span></strong><span leaf="">,这次可能也不例外。随着美联储政策转向和中国经济复苏,香港市场有望在经历短期调整后重新找到上行轨迹。</span></p><hr style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;border-width: 0.5px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.08);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><p style="margin-top: 0px !important;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><em style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">本文基于摩根士丹利研究报告《香港宏观策略、经济、地产与银行&nbsp;</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span><span leaf="">| 亚太地区》的分析观点,数据截止2025年8月20日。市场有风险,投资需谨慎。</span></em></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

← 返回观点全库