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2017年6月市场趋势 | 深圳房价跌到要反弹，中山房价涨到要回落

发布于 2017-06-15

<p><span style="font-size: 14px;">这次在定量分析之前，先分享一个房价定性分析</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QvibQiaxVBMtcYItJI3363Oo8Exk3eXCv7VmUGMeje1ygyhUpkVSiaoZOg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="width: 100%; height: auto;" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">乍看很有道理，但这种定性分析，往往只能打打马后炮，事情发生之后，再分析出原因，而且也无法准确判断市场所处阶段，更无从把握下一个房价拐点</span></p><p style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">对有切实需求的投资者，<span style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>要真正做到，提前判断入手时机，还是要靠科学，定量分析</strong></span></span></p><p><br /></p><p style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">同事最近准备投资广州的房子，单看广州房价这几个月的走势，稳中有降，似乎是有反弹的迹象</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QIYRTXMF7NExJ4YAoM1YkicphQJtoj3KhkeHaGEZkYo2vGqJ8Q528uAQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">但放在禾略的<strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">房价运行合理区间模型</strong>，广州房价跌至下轨，虽获得一定支撑，但成交量持续下降，房价触冷，将继续盘整，可以开始关注起来，不着急入手</span></p><p style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">而在5月份的预测分析中，后台就收到不少留言，想要新增一些城市——</span></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QVljDeiaXzJ0M1icWEZxtLem1aKic2k7o3YOzjkUB5cA0bAOzLPrRyfeicA/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.43609022556390975" data-w="665" /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">应群众的需求，在6月的市场趋势预测中，新增了中山、西安、青岛的分析。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">传送门：</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829288&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=bafb04e8b5ee2bacc63eba3228935085&amp;chksm=83516e77b426e761e6d70197138964ba6cd488b358fe193ec13aaf59ff070de1d49ce0c0d34f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="text-decoration: underline; font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2月预测</span></a><span style="font-size: 14px;">、</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829332&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f60cb83ae739bb39e06e8347ef40d69a&amp;chksm=83516e0bb426e71d23d19f6cf6a884e596d980d8702bc0aff16ea6af89ded59e6ab9ebfa70c0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="text-decoration: underline; font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">3月预测</span></a><span style="font-size: 14px;">、</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829457&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6ed54b4f34b78edbb6f90d1c974dc4f2&amp;chksm=8351718eb426f898d95531d2bc63408aa3f62453070925f69840e725e8c8e3e1541f471f7091&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="text-decoration: underline; font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">4月预测</span></a><span style="font-size: 14px;">、</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829536&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=afd1eae35736e77003ddcb13f3f28e61&amp;chksm=8351717fb426f8697c1b88caa536ecf0b86ca0ea82007f46ea4c49524d284c5fbb8b24eaae69&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="text-decoration: underline; font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">5月预测</span></a></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">由于城市增多，故而分为不同地区，以作区分</span></p><p><br /><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829536&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=afd1eae35736e77003ddcb13f3f28e61&amp;chksm=8351717fb426f8697c1b88caa536ecf0b86ca0ea82007f46ea4c49524d284c5fbb8b24eaae69&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="text-decoration: underline; font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></a></p><p><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>珠三角地区——</strong></span></p><p><br /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QIYRTXMF7NExJ4YAoM1YkicphQJtoj3KhkeHaGEZkYo2vGqJ8Q528uAQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QDqMaSI2jJR88IEaad7QmtWXowdYA8V6Aib8ESRGt3fibQTEPozlMHPdw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QQsibykutb3uyzLvqjvSUcRkZYqJGaX5WGibk0KOicLC6nHTXhw4EfdFgw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QfnGJica54S1YSicjiaNslYbr3ia8FjKquCSb6VVW74UxNCKmXYpWTLa8Aw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QkFSZxFP3IibiaQRa7GV1KnL0Xm0DjmKESRCKLsnCz51NHxqU5EVxC7rQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>华东地区——</strong></span></p><p><br /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QicJKiax4MTrBrNkSdmNrrGlo0r4ia4KGD98kN1qaB715eM5O3egmictpiaQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99Q2RvNn3F9VBNbVQ2ia7zGacXhAxdRZBajk73F16U1CicAFUnxWR8dBUcQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QBh5XRfr56E5ybupibRlUuiazDAM1yJiaicN6VsZEicH4Mwt5IbbuvAU4bnQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QD4nBnrKPfrglQd8LklqwRzEmTkEfxicRjnP5AfwENMVUWtBCYahymaA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QLiaJ9HVLHMfFpd4h6VxQez40HvAVBcEPfhBbFj7OElDNtawZSzA8Eiag/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QvlianJUXq7NEuvPgasrg2vqEibbSxXrepicYdQprtE75iaYlyLotXb8yfw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>华中地区——</strong></span></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99Qfic5DlIicj5xX2lDIDvArVjnw22DgjZzgo9skGBZMSa7xicvCiahFbvaAQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QbXibDmpQ2o3vwFbFglmWzPMiad7CTicoIdialYBwcfaQbejrD2OgTgI8Fg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QR9ylEVHovb0t2TMrr1UlOVKZvDAKibV5WeDQxD8tINIvVpiaAhMxQo4w/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QR3PeU4CtbsdARaiaicdcjIdMTWk1hKV53ia4icWMb8ohCe54W7ibrUChqdA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>华北地区——</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">新增青岛<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">市场预测分析</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br /></span></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QiciaJeT7caZrSNvibY8icriaram2h4hEtchqXs15yqv7T8hDoe9PHVh4w5A/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QR4GflEQleicwZXbzEQpibIpLkG3ISjZpvkUiaFSugSXmicuNI4ouD2GR8A/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99Qg4jkgFetgVp5OXxYO7ERnrRCL197k5TvNvSEMTtuLJRoHvibwAvu8xw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99Qh7qbPylLdBzWPGXlTRsVMAjsLHtrXze6m4HnjtdLBUWXbq32wOkc5w/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>东北地区——</strong></span><br /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QyDbofE69vOrjHzD0fw3iaXfNXlnfCLOvLPntpq9WiaFibdBWuWRibVUtmA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>新增西北地区——</strong></span><br /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QrKT3FsZOic4bAY4bCvtIozvFpIvqeGoFbiazAPprE4ibwR7MapZs3dic1Q/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>西南地区——</strong></span></p><p><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QCNs8nvHk3WMLtueowdeSpicHqWnfLsylezicxqdianhOxy2g78VCte8Hg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QSnEe4XPdIsKiaGXtqQLjqIZpLA2ZyANjmHuUA8JCibNTiaaB7DK8ZXiasA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>小结——</strong></span></p><p style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">大体上，各城市房地产市场变化都不大，值得注意的是，深圳房价跌至下轨，获得大量接盘，量能放出，有企稳的趋势</span></p><p style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">而新增的城市，中山、青岛、西安，均处在上升通道</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">但中山量能不足，有冲高回落的可能</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">而西安量价配合完美，上涨走势凌厉</span><br /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4LiantUVC5mT7BYjebfY99QicB2FkZn2cocibrK3GgDBplZdpibib7CIEBmnMSXU7IzzsUJTLicNqwpJ6g/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">欢迎留言，说说你的看法，或者你的需求~</span><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em; 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