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2018楼市走势如何?禾略有不一样的观点

发布于 2018-01-04

<p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;clear: both;min-height: 1em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"></span><img class="__bg_gif" data-ratio="0.45454545454545453" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/wyice8kFQhf5geQK3gu2FUugjB8iaSGpjO38zXqdgwMx0oC9BCs08koDu1N0thHuib7TjD5SdkYZalvkm0cAClI9Q/0?wx_fmt=gif" data-type="gif" data-w="22" style="margin: 0px auto;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 22px !important;display: block;visibility: visible !important;height: auto !important;" width="22px" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"></span>导读</p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;">1、调控,调的不是楼市,是财富再分配</span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2、越落后的地方,越有地产发展机会</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">3、“环都市圈”是个坑,坑完开发商,坑消费者</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">4、二线城市主流住宅市场,还有一轮大爆发</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">5、2018年,投资下沉到三四线,才是重中之重</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">6、开发商集中度开始下降,区域型房企将崛起</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5h4MJ25zumJAGpQKEMIjfj6IibrBYsZcxxtnQeHTNJYxs8lJN32dmt4YAgNAgeBglEyzia6ibIl6M3g/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="width: 195px;height: 26px;" class="" data-ratio="0.134" data-w="500" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2018年,国家左手抓“<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;">差别化调控</span>”,右手搞“<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;">长期租赁</span>”</span>,口头上,还反复强调“<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;">房产税</span><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></strong></span>”;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5yKVtb4dFn9cibicjc6ic71FQ8usFBaxibPCYcYge37Qknb3qsIyk6DU6jJcakT6rV0KLR27woesccaQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.829585798816568" data-w="845" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;">地产大佬们也纷纷表示,日子不好过了;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG59IlI6XPKIn89DDIymddqI49pmJ7qt2yOqhQd8aVLStTvX28VGEmWbpV5gIDoKcwhDia47nefTibmA/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="width: 526px;height: 388px;" class="" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="526" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="388" data-ratio="0.7381489841986456" data-w="886" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"></span><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">融创有满满的地,自然有满满的信心<br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;">舆论也是大肆渲染“房地产凛冬将至”。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5yKVtb4dFn9cibicjc6ic71FQNEuUzjCk2yJGpHZrMvXWibHlAc37kvAgT8BabYrCaYutpiaSxFTbMG6g/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="width: 526px;height: 426px;" class="" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="526" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="422" data-ratio="0.8097014925373134" data-w="804" /></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">对于今年的“严峻形势”,禾略通过大量数据分析,<strong>2018年不是“稳”,而是进入了“绝对不应期”。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">绝对不应期,生物学上,指在兴奋发生后的最初一段时间内,不论施加多强的刺激,也不能使细胞再次兴奋</span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2018年,禾略预测,全国商品住宅销售额为11.4万亿,稳中有降,但也还是“中大年”。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6LpZRVCDwB3gXicupMSHzPqRJfibgAiaB4dP8Yv3JUQjpDTwCzZOKNTZBI98icibP5Wbdzuuu6m0QHDKw/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.6111636707663197" data-w="1057" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">资料来源:禾略研究院</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></strong></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">在楼市上,“绝对不应期”,代表着稳步下滑,低频波动的房地产周期。调控思路和执行政策相对稳定,不会一会收紧一会宽松,房企应从追求增长速度,过渡到增长质量。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6LpZRVCDwB3gXicupMSHzPqUQCY8WgZQ8I0hvkqa71U1JGNDGiahMT4uZ560YJJNiciasmv8BFS5TMiag/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.609895337773549" data-w="1051" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">资料来源:禾略研究院</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></strong></span><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5h4MJ25zumJAGpQKEMIjfj6IibrBYsZcxxtnQeHTNJYxs8lJN32dmt4YAgNAgeBglEyzia6ibIl6M3g/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="width: 195px;height: 26px;" class="" data-ratio="0.134" data-w="500" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);">调控,调的不是楼市,是财富再分配</span></strong></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这两年,政府就像房地产的后妈,不断加大调控力度:</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2016年,放开二孩、降准、降首付、契税新政、开放小区、推进去库存、二手房营改增、培育特色小镇、重启限购限贷、整治首付贷等。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2017年,“限”字风头更甚、利率上调、共有产权、租购并举、租售同权、房地产税、房价下跌、房住不炒、金融去杠杆、长效机制等多管齐下。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">今年,终于,房价萎靡不振,市场波澜不惊,专家们开始高喊“2018年是最艰难的一年”。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG59IlI6XPKIn89DDIymddqI7m6rmNeYx26ndSn1syseAwSOLveNpbDOGY9JLLe9AY3uzJE4FHHLTg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="width: 404px;height: 719px;" class="" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG59IlI6XPKIn89DDIymddqIxibVibYh9fqVUDtos46N0Gxkw42q8mUw6QHVy3h1ibHHibsGGUO0IsGicug/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="404" data-cropy1="1" data-cropy2="720" data-ratio="1.7797029702970297" data-w="404" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">毕竟,房地产还是中国经济的亲儿子,没有调控,会怎么样呢?</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们以2005-2015的数据(调控前),做趋势外推,假如没有调控,GDP增速直接来个“<span style="font-size: 14px;">三连降</span>”6-5-4。<strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">不管房价涨多少,国家经济都先“垮掉”</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">!</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></em></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">亲儿子直接把爹给坑了,看来,还是后妈好。</span></em></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6LpZRVCDwB3gXicupMSHzPqvjiafQLRYB7fIrBiaibSpgXdJG3sNgicBpvMvTo6OCaTsB0F6xg49DxkcQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="width: 535px;height: 325px;" class="" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="526" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="325" data-ratio="0.6079545454545454" data-w="1056" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">资料来源:禾略研究院</span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">事实上,这两年几经调控,楼市“降温”,GDP增速却稳定在6以上,<strong>证明调控改变的,不止房地产。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们尝试分解各行业GDP,在调控前后的变化。发现这两年的调控,<strong>实际上,打压了金融业,扶持了实体经济。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6LpZRVCDwB3gXicupMSHzPqzGImnibI9ujnicRThunFeX3LENAWiapPqZ0TP7lBmgCdzVPviah7Nm8DkQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="width: 526px;height: 350px;" class="" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="526" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="349" data-ratio="0.6644486692015209" data-w="1052" /></p><p style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">资料来源:禾略研究院</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5h4MJ25zumJAGpQKEMIjfj6IibrBYsZcxxtnQeHTNJYxs8lJN32dmt4YAgNAgeBglEyzia6ibIl6M3g/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="width: 195px;height: 26px;" class="" data-ratio="0.134" data-w="500" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></strong><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);">越落后的地方,越有发展机会</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">“<span style="font-size: 14px;">打压金融业,扶持实体经济</span>”,正是国家经济转型,十九大提出的“从全力发展经济,转向收入再分配”。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">要实现“再分配”,不同城市,有不同痛点——</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">一线城市:产业升级,人口疏导,城市更新;</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">一线卫星城:发展特色产业,实现职住平衡;<br /></span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">二线城市:产业承接,人口<span style="font-size: 14px;">回流</span>,内需爆发;</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">三四线城市:产业培育,实现脱贫,需求升级。</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">所以说,纯居住附属关系的都市圈是个大坑,坑完开发商,坑消费者</span><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG59IlI6XPKIn89DDIymddqIFU860ZcAheQ5KXM08ctoGsB0C0eMV31JFBGf0OicZZFJe2UJHBrWptA/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="1280" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">资料来源:禾略研究院</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">而今年房地产,将充分体现它的双重性</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">——</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">国家聚合发展,起到拉动经济的作用;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">国家轴向发展,则起到再分配的作用。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这就是说,<strong>现阶段人均GDP低的地区,未来房地产发展空间大。</strong><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6LpZRVCDwB3gXicupMSHzPqZibL3XicG6UOuTa1RnNyJjtUPGrIOf3hUlr4ZaqQV1eD67sNZZXicjRdA/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="width: 526px;height: 524px;" class="" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="526" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="522" data-ratio="0.9959623149394348" data-w="743" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">资料来源:禾略研究院</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">同时,市场需求出现了明显的分化——</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">一线城市</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">,<strong>需求多元化</strong>:需求虽大,但房价过高,加上调控收紧,有效需求锐减,整体从主流市场转为多元市场,如商务、租赁、公寓等开始兴起;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">二线城市</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">,<strong>住宅需求为主</strong>:正处于城市大发展阶段,人口持续聚集,有效需求井喷,但有效供应稀缺,主流住宅市场,仍有一轮大爆发;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">三、四线城市</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">,<strong>改善需求释放</strong>:处于城市化扩展阶段,是一个潜在巨大的增量市场,需要重视。婴儿潮一代的改善需求,正逐步释放,市场有一定支撑。<br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">所以,对于开发商而言,这一轮,投资主动下沉至三四线城市,是重中之重。</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG6LpZRVCDwB3gXicupMSHzPqdiaVzAsKlCLzenyibuNVWAQ6GzhAIVsr2odiaOplHg2rniazf0RuToBKCw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="width: 526px;height: 527px;" class="" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6LpZRVCDwB3gXicupMSHzPqbq8dcLtRBIRn4fia3t3HccCaP2lib6BXfHicsz2QUY96UjqCicco0URDKA/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="739.9661016949153" data-cropy1="0" data-cropy2="741.3728813559322" data-ratio="1.0027063599458728" data-w="739" /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">资料来源:禾略研究院</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5h4MJ25zumJAGpQKEMIjfj6IibrBYsZcxxtnQeHTNJYxs8lJN32dmt4YAgNAgeBglEyzia6ibIl6M3g/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="width: 195px;height: 26px;" class="" data-ratio="0.134" data-w="500" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);">开发商集中度下降</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span>,<span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>区域型房企崛起</strong></span><br /><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">国家的转型,正需要开发商,<strong>不仅能建房子,还要能帮助政府,发展城市功能</strong>。比如碧桂园在环一线搞小镇,万科提到的“城市浓度”。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">由此,开发商的阵营排序会发生较大变化,<strong>集中度会下降</strong>,因为强者恒强,是建立在加杆杠冲规模的模式上,但是现在这个模式不行了,同时,会有一批区域型的开发商冒出来。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2018年,禾略预测,全国商品住宅销售面积,呈稳步下降的趋势。<br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6LpZRVCDwB3gXicupMSHzPqD2JfpUrtIYMNqkJcj3mFpzA8EWz14nHSbgibdOXrIPLqDQ1SRxlGmlw/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="" class="" data-ratio="0.6116412213740458" data-w="1048" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">资料来源:禾略研究院</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG5h4MJ25zumJAGpQKEMIjfj6IibrBYsZcxxtnQeHTNJYxs8lJN32dmt4YAgNAgeBglEyzia6ibIl6M3g/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="width: 195px;height: 26px;" class="" data-ratio="0.134" data-w="500" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2018楼市关键词,自我造血</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">经过这几年的“调控轰炸”,<span style="font-size: 14px;">房地产周期开始变慢。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">新的一年,国家要实现“再分配”,开发商高负债、高周转的模式被打破,市场需求呈现多元裂变。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></span></strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">楼市在“绝对不应期”</span>,<span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">无论是开发商,还是消费者</span></strong></span></span>,短期内对刺激毫无反应,都需要策略性地条理节奏</strong><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">,实现自我造血。</span></strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">毕竟,生活不止眼前的调控,还有加息、房产税、长期租赁……</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG6LpZRVCDwB3gXicupMSHzPqY0qRqgvOI0pJCfRokJCff5swMZFS7FuxKwB5VNPurSnQEvrBMvYvOQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-copyright="0" style="width: 405px;height: 720px;" class="" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="405" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="720" data-ratio="1.7777777777777777" data-w="405" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: right;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">猜你想看 | 房地产研究新方向之<strong><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);">【跨界思考】</span></strong>系列</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong>房地</strong></span><span style="font-size: 12px;background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>产</strong></span><span style="background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 14px;"><strong>×大数据</strong></span></span></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829662&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=a0f9b47beae15eaada8d20b39fb26c21&amp;chksm=835170c1b426f9d7c8ecebbe881b254293dea7c826683c2e381693d874915dedef067a98d419&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">1、如何理解城市的发展和土地的价值?</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829874&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=89cea6591f505400948575845f627b73&amp;chksm=8351702db426f93b8b50893dc664a17b3e69dd5d980ea96e16def2c758deddc0cc7b906069dd&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">2、要是有一天,马云也做房地产</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829841&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=4c8c80fb3b7b721df0a9fd204ac07f66&amp;chksm=8351700eb426f918410cde0800635745e898437602799c7dfd6c38a623ec784eb196dcec16f7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">3、悦府开盘谣言不断,如何打破信息不对称?</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829718&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=a5fdb1b706d12d9f75d4af2d772375f7&amp;chksm=83517089b426f99f4e7d16d12554059e0ae02d17b0d32646d49cc15ba7bf084db5fbc01484b2&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">4、围棋都AI了,地产还靠经验?</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"></span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829590&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=a89abd34200c237cf3773686a1486ee2&amp;chksm=83517109b426f81fa20b8dfd28a6d572bfb11b42ef10050fe26a1612f0c54dd6e92bd07e8610&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">5、两年跟踪研究 | 大数据回答房地产不一样的问题</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829293&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9c248869ff7a1a03947bd160b429927b&amp;chksm=83516e72b426e7646af7fb4cc65a4904a29c83336f46a87f4b253f2eb893c4dbd9315a65cab8&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">6、你们想知道的房地产模型算法在这里</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829251&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9d13ee02bf8c26fc14cc6f05790061c0&amp;chksm=83516e5cb426e74a760e05894bce91006149e2b3131a74e1a2169436425571f861adab77a76b&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">7、2017房企投资指南</span></a><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829185&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7e4da293d7535f9488b6c9c319968357&amp;chksm=83516e9eb426e7889fc88381b07b62e19df334267ac060b7fb883002899c2e495adb9fffe178&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">8、禾略送给专业地产人的圣诞礼物</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=206752846&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9b1148eb7ff37e89f2cb1c12dcecb8ea&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">9、就是给您提供点数据——致上海市委书记的一封信</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><strong>大城小事×禾略观点</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830221&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f5994dbfe9fa00ffce4b5be1a69f3244&amp;chksm=83517292b426fb8419e771cf48ea94de01fc7dc909b4e8c2759c6423b8be6080bc5bd1c248cc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">1、深圳最新地铁规划,究竟“利好”了谁?</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830196&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7a599cf338734c1d41c6fa16005b1641&amp;chksm=835172ebb426fbfdda6873adbeddc124ae670de675a7c36d11977106150a1d924572ea70f299&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">2、禾略是这样解读城市,成都篇</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;"></span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=cd78421e4f2e724f552f8eefc65e0236&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa26aed46ed566bc1f8ffa11498370fed14fa9d0690795a3eff5a186c63a03d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">3、参考深圳标准,上海房价还要涨46%</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829563&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9e468d74b0dc9a156fcdb7bb4944551a&amp;chksm=83517164b426f8722e59ebee139130e104a9d6cf46ce22adeaf03fe0c6861e33a901a4246723&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">4、嘉兴,有地万事足</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829512&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=421f2b766d75009082de8fc1e81cd8d2&amp;chksm=83517157b426f84197c93fd852a3e3f93019c9d81e099784ad0aa09f326ca9dd33a0edb7cfd7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">5、在珠三角中,谁是下一个雄安新区?</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829480&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c77baf137c109f1017170a708548d37b&amp;chksm=835171b7b426f8a1d942708988b8f4bd875366f5928d1db99470ccad6958aa0c8cd47b292c23&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">6、独家 | 为什么要建雄安新区?</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"></span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829214&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=e245560eeadafae388de6a7d7577e04e&amp;chksm=83516e81b426e7976c5c6d425b4a39ade86d0e12ed288238933e3662f48c58d57c4efeb5c801&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">7、深圳房价下一轮还能不能涨?</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829123&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=dfa4dc6c2538443c36261850676e445f&amp;chksm=83516edcb426e7ca756d2a80930aa8be108cbd730cb05573393378c60e9c9e8ce88067b00c06&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">8、客研圈观测的新物种——屌英</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=402337281&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=01025bafd1b30fc52ccffa541506497c&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">9、花了上亿的设计费,望京SOHO还是租不出去</span></a><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=401847225&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=1ae51240243bad61b1e0a316994f362a&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">10、北上广深未来十年的房价走势</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">解忧杂派军×技术流</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830258&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=079af6257d826b9b592280754ac66a69&amp;chksm=835172adb426fbbbcbc0ba7b27078f59d0313d5bd0f60d0b385720251d85f0b1797abeb24e54&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">1、没有任泽平的房企怎么办?</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829733&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=3f4241c78a32428b8e4221f32e45f533&amp;chksm=835170bab426f9ac7d68b787ff9864174ed4ccbac8750117c6a26106d0a6275d2e978d3c1498&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">2、在禾略实习是一种怎样的体验</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829841&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=9779a066dfc0da9bb0e7ab3431721161&amp;chksm=8351700eb426f918902b9f9c61a6cc9902653b4b9f7908eed632867330dd834656d5d7cf9a8b&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">3、在禾略实习BUG回顾</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829379&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c0f0079307b8b0971c8b1d2e9e4c2adf&amp;chksm=835171dcb426f8cae8b68d38d7321790c39ce7069af846d43aae885c7f78b3f117e9ddd210ab&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">4、好奇心 | 做一个万科同款“大数据分析平台”需要多少钱</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829303&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=d6cc03f58eb0e21641a717312d5dda65&amp;chksm=83516e68b426e77e04faae951eb1671a164107acd72d104c7f71e8309b113f03a28cbdfe8bc4&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">5、大数据教你如何关爱女性</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649828712&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c62e708c4b22a6d9511a9431e2077c52&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">6、居家户型设计成情趣酒店套房,为什么你还觉得合理?</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649828677&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7c875db73d5b1cd5b80d82dfc68c7be2&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">7、如何拿对一块地,少奋斗30年</span></a><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649828638&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9dd9532d4b315ffa866d7f062210cbcf&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">8、数据会说谎</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=206786995&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2cf4dfdbf624ee798ea5a04a48402a53&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">9、万科城市地图第二春</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830201&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=1816623486b879233513443f1df6ec59&amp;chksm=835172e6b426fbf07aa0f023c3ff79ca1cf11606fc2f2b66cfe773222e3fa1df7f92affa90b6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 12px;text-decoration: underline;">10、他把别墅做成中产阶级的玩具,结果被一抢而空</span></a></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong>2017年市场短周期预测</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">(待续)</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">珠三角地区<span style="font-size: 12px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829288&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=bafb04e8b5ee2bacc63eba3228935085&amp;chksm=83516e77b426e761e6d70197138964ba6cd488b358fe193ec13aaf59ff070de1d49ce0c0d34f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">2月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829332&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f60cb83ae739bb39e06e8347ef40d69a&amp;chksm=83516e0bb426e71d23d19f6cf6a884e596d980d8702bc0aff16ea6af89ded59e6ab9ebfa70c0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">3月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829457&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6ed54b4f34b78edbb6f90d1c974dc4f2&amp;chksm=8351718eb426f898d95531d2bc63408aa3f62453070925f69840e725e8c8e3e1541f471f7091&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">4月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829536&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=afd1eae35736e77003ddcb13f3f28e61&amp;chksm=8351717fb426f8697c1b88caa536ecf0b86ca0ea82007f46ea4c49524d284c5fbb8b24eaae69&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">5月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829645&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=85248135d55f4cc72278bb099e0ae417&amp;chksm=835170d2b426f9c428dd05c5751f8b3a79d7727cebac23097fa16f25fdea0137915b217f6bde&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">6月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829783&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b1151b97fdebc49102df125a87ed5935&amp;chksm=83517048b426f95ec769dddecdcbf59072bd05e0e4e84ddda437eda5bae6a09dbb2d8510767f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">7月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829841&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=ba5f9cab33c5edcea4e5a8b32f40ca9c&amp;chksm=8351700eb426f9188a9fbadfb06f94431dfa464c512eac51e06d42eb647d5d2a0cb53f38b1fc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">8月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=ddcff78831ef35c1567385c035f4f9d6&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa2c9015eb00400546b627214b1aa7bceac9d60325d15cb3b02b170f0c9fb37&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">9月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830098&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6e17da0729c31b4e18adad55abf1cced&amp;chksm=8351730db426fa1b0d830e0ca3cbd545734939625250ccf831aaa7992cdc06e30717b32b9f4f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">10月</a>、</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">长三角地区<span style="font-size: 12px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829288&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=bafb04e8b5ee2bacc63eba3228935085&amp;chksm=83516e77b426e761e6d70197138964ba6cd488b358fe193ec13aaf59ff070de1d49ce0c0d34f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">2月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829332&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f60cb83ae739bb39e06e8347ef40d69a&amp;chksm=83516e0bb426e71d23d19f6cf6a884e596d980d8702bc0aff16ea6af89ded59e6ab9ebfa70c0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">3月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829457&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6ed54b4f34b78edbb6f90d1c974dc4f2&amp;chksm=8351718eb426f898d95531d2bc63408aa3f62453070925f69840e725e8c8e3e1541f471f7091&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">4月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829536&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=afd1eae35736e77003ddcb13f3f28e61&amp;chksm=8351717fb426f8697c1b88caa536ecf0b86ca0ea82007f46ea4c49524d284c5fbb8b24eaae69&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">5月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829645&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=85248135d55f4cc72278bb099e0ae417&amp;chksm=835170d2b426f9c428dd05c5751f8b3a79d7727cebac23097fa16f25fdea0137915b217f6bde&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">6月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829783&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b1151b97fdebc49102df125a87ed5935&amp;chksm=83517048b426f95ec769dddecdcbf59072bd05e0e4e84ddda437eda5bae6a09dbb2d8510767f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">7月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829841&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=ba5f9cab33c5edcea4e5a8b32f40ca9c&amp;chksm=8351700eb426f9188a9fbadfb06f94431dfa464c512eac51e06d42eb647d5d2a0cb53f38b1fc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">8月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=52e5c0d38a682b1c69685de472e5967c&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa2ced3abc468a56a38a8cf0d98f590ccd8f7a29cbe6e0600c66853f900db6e&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">9月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830098&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=a2df5eb804546dae571f06d4f0220ac6&amp;chksm=8351730db426fa1b34b511f5620ac792141facdb9e21592a1ba782ecc7f04677080ef47ad451&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">10月</a>、</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">中西部地区<span style="font-size: 12px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829288&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=bafb04e8b5ee2bacc63eba3228935085&amp;chksm=83516e77b426e761e6d70197138964ba6cd488b358fe193ec13aaf59ff070de1d49ce0c0d34f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">2月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829332&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f60cb83ae739bb39e06e8347ef40d69a&amp;chksm=83516e0bb426e71d23d19f6cf6a884e596d980d8702bc0aff16ea6af89ded59e6ab9ebfa70c0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">3月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829457&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6ed54b4f34b78edbb6f90d1c974dc4f2&amp;chksm=8351718eb426f898d95531d2bc63408aa3f62453070925f69840e725e8c8e3e1541f471f7091&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">4月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829536&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=afd1eae35736e77003ddcb13f3f28e61&amp;chksm=8351717fb426f8697c1b88caa536ecf0b86ca0ea82007f46ea4c49524d284c5fbb8b24eaae69&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">5月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829645&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=85248135d55f4cc72278bb099e0ae417&amp;chksm=835170d2b426f9c428dd05c5751f8b3a79d7727cebac23097fa16f25fdea0137915b217f6bde&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">6月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829783&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b1151b97fdebc49102df125a87ed5935&amp;chksm=83517048b426f95ec769dddecdcbf59072bd05e0e4e84ddda437eda5bae6a09dbb2d8510767f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">7月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829841&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=ba5f9cab33c5edcea4e5a8b32f40ca9c&amp;chksm=8351700eb426f9188a9fbadfb06f94431dfa464c512eac51e06d42eb647d5d2a0cb53f38b1fc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">8月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=4&amp;sn=b4dbd6e2e114a7ffc1bd5d762accb012&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa2981ee49c6ec0cca1d19817788d23c42bef941415640b77b2b7487ea03827&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">9月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830098&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=4ef2c67447e82da0538bd6bc897031a0&amp;chksm=8351730db426fa1b2c2e2a3ee1e88820ca738162efec5e11dadd64b4d41f711f7305cfd0f234&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">10月</a>、</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">北部地区<span style="font-size: 12px;"><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829288&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=bafb04e8b5ee2bacc63eba3228935085&amp;chksm=83516e77b426e761e6d70197138964ba6cd488b358fe193ec13aaf59ff070de1d49ce0c0d34f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">2月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829332&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f60cb83ae739bb39e06e8347ef40d69a&amp;chksm=83516e0bb426e71d23d19f6cf6a884e596d980d8702bc0aff16ea6af89ded59e6ab9ebfa70c0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">3月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829457&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6ed54b4f34b78edbb6f90d1c974dc4f2&amp;chksm=8351718eb426f898d95531d2bc63408aa3f62453070925f69840e725e8c8e3e1541f471f7091&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">4月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829536&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=afd1eae35736e77003ddcb13f3f28e61&amp;chksm=8351717fb426f8697c1b88caa536ecf0b86ca0ea82007f46ea4c49524d284c5fbb8b24eaae69&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">5月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829645&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=85248135d55f4cc72278bb099e0ae417&amp;chksm=835170d2b426f9c428dd05c5751f8b3a79d7727cebac23097fa16f25fdea0137915b217f6bde&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">6月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829783&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b1151b97fdebc49102df125a87ed5935&amp;chksm=83517048b426f95ec769dddecdcbf59072bd05e0e4e84ddda437eda5bae6a09dbb2d8510767f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">7月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829841&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=ba5f9cab33c5edcea4e5a8b32f40ca9c&amp;chksm=8351700eb426f9188a9fbadfb06f94431dfa464c512eac51e06d42eb647d5d2a0cb53f38b1fc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">8月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=5&amp;sn=496cedb857d3ac5fe4beb0eac7d78d34&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa2b7390c9cbcb039676c09b9d2808eafe180d101e90b7d4f62f280a15bb3dd&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">9月</a>、<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830098&amp;idx=4&amp;sn=2f71512a654087b6e4bbb8f19cf3463c&amp;chksm=8351730db426fa1babeeb1b4a7af96e989b5257bc088df943a0e05319463d6a373d4e709c356&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank">10月</a>、</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 1.5em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-size: 16px;line-height: 25.6px;white-space: normal;border-width: medium;border-style: none;border-color: currentcolor;-moz-border-top-colors: none;-moz-border-right-colors: none;-moz-border-bottom-colors: none;-moz-border-left-colors: none;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="" style="margin: auto;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-color: rgb(71, 193, 168);width: 3em;text-align: center;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: inherit;font-size: 1em;text-decoration: inherit;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-radius: 50%;width: 3em;height: 3em;line-height: 3.5em;overflow: hidden;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(71, 193, 168);"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">更多</span></section></section><section class="" style="margin: -0.92em auto auto;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;width: 0px;font-family: inherit;border-top: 3em solid rgb(71, 193, 168);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;border-right: 1.4em solid transparent !important;border-left: 1.4em solid transparent !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section></section></section><fieldset class="" style="margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-width: 0px;white-space: normal;border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: currentcolor;-moz-border-top-colors: none;-moz-border-right-colors: none;-moz-border-bottom-colors: none;-moz-border-left-colors: none;text-align: center;color: rgb(129, 120, 119);font-size: 13.63px;font-weight: bold;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="padding: 0.3em 0.5em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);border-radius: 0.5em;text-align: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-weight: inherit;text-decoration: inherit;display: inline-block;box-shadow: rgb(165, 165, 165) 0.2em 0.2em 0.1em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="padding: 0.3em 0.5em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);border-radius: 0.5em;text-align: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-weight: inherit;text-decoration: inherit;display: inline-block;box-shadow: rgb(165, 165, 165) 0.2em 0.2em 0.1em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);font-size: 16px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">禾略中国:helue_China</span></p></span></fieldset><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;color: rgb(129, 120, 119);font-size: 13.63px;font-weight: bold;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><hr style="max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;text-align: justify;color: rgb(129, 120, 119);font-size: 13.63px;font-weight: bold;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" /><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;color: rgb(129, 120, 119);font-size: 13.63px;font-weight: bold;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;">陪你想,陪你写,陪你玩</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-size: 16px;line-height: 25.6px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-size: 16px;white-space: normal;text-align: justify;line-height: 24px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><img data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG4z3ZLnvGz7yzYuZ21wHoX53ZpOwnQhPmGbl2SxSiboaKiaW8L2CuhQBnhRkhP7Z47icicDduyXibFxAAg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" style="line-height: 1.6;text-indent: 32px;font-family: 宋体;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: auto !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>

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