官网首页 › 研究观点 › 观点正文

2020年宏观回顾及展望

发布于 2021-02-14

<p style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.12402428447528187" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/AJkYaTAujIxRbBahNmrNwtLicwZia9O37Okx71ACKDgAZOKpvcPpRTkTx5Al4fdFT1bX1rtyciaYh79F5pyrkdSWA/640?wx_fmt=gif" data-type="gif" data-w="1153" style="width: 370px;height: auto !important;" /></p><p><br /></p><section label="Copyright 2018 iPaiban All Rights Reserved (本样式已做版权保护,未经正式授权不允许任何第三方编辑器、企业、个人使用,违者必纠)" donone="shifuMouseDownPayStyle(&#39;shifu_qmi_021&#39;)" style="margin: 0.5rem auto;white-space: normal;width: 566.438px;border-width: initial;border-color: initial;border-style: none;"><section style="width: 566.438px;text-align: center;"><section style="padding-bottom: 2px;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(78, 153, 223);display: inline-flex;border-top-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-right-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-left-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);"><section style="border-bottom: 1px dashed rgb(78, 153, 223);display: inline-flex;font-size: 1rem;border-top-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-right-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-left-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);"><p><strong>摘要</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section label="Copyleft 2018 iPaiban All lefts Reserved (本样式已做版权保护,未经正式授权不允许任何第三方编辑器、企业、个人使用,违者必纠)" donone="shifuMouseDownPayStyle(&#39;shifu_imi_60&#39;)" style="margin: 0.5rem auto;white-space: normal;width: 24rem;border-width: initial;border-color: initial;border-style: none;"><section style="margin-top: 2rem;margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;padding-top: 0.5rem;padding-bottom: 0.5rem;border-top: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204);font-size: 1rem;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204);"><section style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.4rem;"><br /></section><section style="padding: 16px 16px 10px;color: rgb(32, 32, 32);line-height: 1.4rem;font-size: 1rem;"><p style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 13px;">2019年经济持续放缓背景下,2020年上半年遭受疫情打击,一季度 GDP 甚至出现 6.8%历史罕见负增长,之后V字反弹,下半年主要行业和经济指标基本恢复正常。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;"><br /></p><p style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 13px;">政策方面,货币政策托底作用明显,助企业部门渡过难关,实体经济在疫情期间获得了大量、低成本的流动性。但在当前经济超预期回落的可能性较小的情况下,央行已无必要继续宽松,除非外生风险带来新一轮经济承压下行,信用扩张在今年年底到明年年初达到顶点后,步伐将会放慢甚至逐步出现收缩。明年下半年开始需要警惕实体经济面临的流动性风险。央行对实体经济刺激政策的转向,也更可能出现在下半年。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p></section></section></section><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 24px;white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p><br /></p><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="85959" style="white-space: normal;"><section style="padding: 20px;border-width: 1.5px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(198, 198, 199);text-align: center;"><section style="display: inline-block;color: inherit;"><section style="margin-top: 0.2em;padding-right: 0.4em;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 0.4em;color: rgb(107, 77, 64);font-size: 3em;line-height: 1;border-bottom: 3px solid rgb(107, 77, 64);border-top-color: rgb(107, 77, 64);border-right-color: rgb(107, 77, 64);border-left-color: rgb(107, 77, 64);"><em>Part 1</em></section><section style="margin-top: 0.8em;padding-right: 0.5em;padding-left: 0.5em;color: rgb(107, 77, 64);line-height: 2em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">宏观经济周期</span></strong><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>内在</strong></span><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">约束</span></strong></section><section style="margin-top: 0.8em;padding-right: 0.5em;padding-left: 0.5em;color: rgb(107, 77, 64);line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>(产出、消费、投资、生产)</strong></span></section></section><p><br /></p><section style="text-align: justify;width: 566.438px;border-width: initial;border-color: initial;border-style: none;"><section style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(78, 153, 223);clear: both;border-top-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-right-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-left-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);text-align: left;"><section style="padding-top: 0.3rem;padding-right: 0.8rem;padding-left: 0.8rem;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top-left-radius: 10px;font-size: 1rem;background-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">1.1 产出端</span></strong></section></section></section><p style="text-align: justify;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">货币政策宽松对经济托底作用明显,地产恢复节奏慢于工业,2020年四季度经济正从复苏期转向繁荣期,经济繁荣将至少维持到明年上半年,预期2021年全年经济增长在8~9%。</span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p><img data-ratio="0.4357864357864358" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxRbBahNmrNwtLicwZia9O37ODvDdVicQ8gMgbZnsC0ZHaNU5OQG10iaTqZJTdsggtP2wwibTQ7TXveR4Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="height: auto !important;" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><section style="text-align: justify;width: 566.438px;border-width: initial;border-color: initial;border-style: none;"><section style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(78, 153, 223);clear: both;border-top-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-right-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-left-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);text-align: left;"><section style="padding-top: 0.3rem;padding-right: 0.8rem;padding-left: 0.8rem;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top-left-radius: 10px;font-size: 1rem;background-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">1.2 投资端</span></strong></section></section></section><p style="text-align: justify;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">固投增长2020年四季度转为正增长,房地产投资恢复迅速,于二季度转为正增长,目前房地产投资受到政策抑制,未来可能将会承压甚至回落。</span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p><img data-ratio="0.38816738816738816" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxRbBahNmrNwtLicwZia9O37O56FpUPza7zJN9ZsHStj8JWdgam4j5zQGC9rw1q4mB9XeqbkYhcpqCw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="height: auto !important;" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 13px;font-family: 等线;">房地产投资方面,受到疫情影响,春节后的房地产销售几乎处于停滞状态,同时开工、施工也受到停工停产政策影响而出现明显走弱。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p><img data-ratio="0.4025974025974026" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxRbBahNmrNwtLicwZia9O37Oh6lqh97OAgLMngqbZketZBQh0Ju9h6hjbudibFcUZTmdQlDibtgU9CxA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="height: auto !important;" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 13px;">但2020年二季度开始上游开工、下游销售均有明显回升。央行宽松的政策也为房地产行业带来流动性救急。但从三季度开始,央行的货币政策逐步转向,监管层也开始注意到房地产风险,对房地产行业政策开始收紧,“三道红线”等政策开始实施。至四季度,房地产行业已经出现预期谨慎,资金偏紧等情况。当前情况下房地产企业为加速资金周转,加快开工建设和竣工等行为可以维持投资增速暂时不出现断崖式下跌,但偏紧的行业状况也令房地产投资继续加速的可能性极小。在政策方向不变的状况下,整体来看不排除房地产投资平稳回落的可能性。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><section style="text-align: justify;width: 566.438px;border-width: initial;border-color: initial;border-style: none;"><section style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(78, 153, 223);clear: both;border-top-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-right-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-left-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);text-align: left;"><section style="padding-top: 0.3rem;padding-right: 0.8rem;padding-left: 0.8rem;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top-left-radius: 10px;font-size: 1rem;background-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">1.3 消费端</span></strong></section></section></section><p style="text-align: justify;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">国内消费方面,一季度商品及服务消费受到疫情严重冲击,商品消费恢复较快,2020年三季度解禁服务消费,社消8月增速转正。</span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 13px;font-family: 等线;">今年消费受到疫情的打击主要分两个阶段。第一阶段是疫情出现、政府采取严格监管措施之后到5月,其特点为商品和服务消费均受到严重打击,但商品消费逐步恢复。第二阶段是三季度开始,随着严格防疫措施逐步解禁,服务消费开始加速恢复。社消于8 月恢复同比正增长。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p><img data-ratio="0.38961038961038963" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxRbBahNmrNwtLicwZia9O37O4HvJNicaHNvEIYr7YGa10s5uCHlRAmxYiaicibeN12llqj5lymyMhbHbSQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="height: auto !important;" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><section style="text-align: justify;width: 566.438px;border-width: initial;border-color: initial;border-style: none;"><section style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(78, 153, 223);clear: both;border-top-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-right-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-left-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);text-align: left;"><section style="padding-top: 0.3rem;padding-right: 0.8rem;padding-left: 0.8rem;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top-left-radius: 10px;font-size: 1rem;background-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">1.4 外贸</span></strong></section></section></section><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><span style="font-family: 等线;">外贸方面:</span><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">受惠于中美贸易协议签订带来贸易信心修复,及海外疫情停业产生的替代性</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">生产需求,整体外贸</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">情况表现超预期。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 25px;text-align: justify;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 13px;">今年整体外贸情况表现较好。首先,年初中美签订阶段贸易协议,影响中国出口的最大风险明显下降,政策落地后企业信心改善。其次,在海外疫情开始加剧之后,部分欧洲或美国制造业行业停工,导致相应产业链受到限制,全球企业改为从中国开展替代性商品进口,来维持生产和运营。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 13px;">预计 2021 年出口增速先上升、后稳定,尤其预期欧美国家新一轮疫情缓和,出口增速将有承压风险,对GDP的贡献也将会相应下降。但在全球经济复苏以及全球贸易修复的背景之下,大幅回落的可能性较低。</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><section style="text-align: justify;width: 566.438px;border-width: initial;border-color: initial;border-style: none;"><section style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(78, 153, 223);clear: both;border-top-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-right-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-left-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);text-align: left;"><section style="padding-top: 0.3rem;padding-right: 0.8rem;padding-left: 0.8rem;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top-left-radius: 10px;font-size: 1rem;background-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">1.5 生产</span></strong></section></section></section><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">生产端——国内制造业订单2020年3月强劲复苏,疫情积压库存不断去化至当前低位,产能利用率已反弹至相对高位,叠加外贸新订单三季度复苏,制造业新一轮产能投资或将起步。</span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p><img data-ratio="0.3968253968253968" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxRbBahNmrNwtLicwZia9O37Oc6y4YlnjwLicyMicuPXDutWXCLyUDhRzibGrr4PyWYvK2yZypibfddTApA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="height: auto !important;" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">全球的制造业周期,出现回暖迹象,全球制造业PMI已升至相对高位。</span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p><img data-ratio="0.5656565656565656" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxRbBahNmrNwtLicwZia9O37OEJILNS4H3hwN6UmFZvHZGWROg2iceuk1BltOG7W8Y8GG7jZJ6ficqs6g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="height: auto !important;" /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><section style="text-align: justify;width: 566.438px;border-width: initial;border-color: initial;border-style: none;"><section style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(78, 153, 223);clear: both;border-top-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-right-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-left-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);text-align: left;"><section style="padding-top: 0.3rem;padding-right: 0.8rem;padding-left: 0.8rem;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top-left-radius: 10px;font-size: 1rem;background-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">1.6 宏观经济周期内在约束小结</span></strong></section></section></section><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">内外需复苏,经济向繁荣迈进,中国经济正处于“复苏寻顶”阶段。</span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 13px;font-family: 等线;">政策会从供给侧入手,需求侧前期疫情期间逆周期操作逐步退出,财政要发力主要还是减税降费。货币政策边际收紧以防经济过热,工业通缩但是主周期上行。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 24px;text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 24px;text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 24px;text-align: left;"><br /></p><section style="display: inline-block;color: inherit;"><section style="margin-top: 0.2em;padding-right: 0.4em;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 0.4em;color: rgb(107, 77, 64);font-size: 3em;line-height: 1;border-bottom: 3px solid rgb(107, 77, 64);border-top-color: rgb(107, 77, 64);border-right-color: rgb(107, 77, 64);border-left-color: rgb(107, 77, 64);"><em>Part 2</em></section><section style="margin-top: 0.8em;padding-right: 0.5em;padding-left: 0.5em;color: rgb(107, 77, 64);line-height: 2em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">宏观经济周期的</span></strong><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>外部</strong></span><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">约束</span></strong><span style="font-size: 18px;"></span></section><section style="margin-top: 0.8em;padding-right: 0.5em;padding-left: 0.5em;color: rgb(107, 77, 64);line-height: 2em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">(物价、流动性、货币供应、房地产)</span></strong></section></section><p><br /></p><section style="width: 566.438px;border-width: initial;border-color: initial;border-style: none;"><section style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(78, 153, 223);clear: both;border-top-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-right-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-left-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);text-align: left;"><section style="padding-top: 0.3rem;padding-right: 0.8rem;padding-left: 0.8rem;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top-left-radius: 10px;font-size: 1rem;background-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">2.1 物价水平</span></strong></section></section></section><p style="line-height: 1.75em;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">在物价水平上,消费端今年CPI呈明显下行趋势,猪肉价格的周期下行、上游大宗商品能源价格走弱,叠加疫情影响的服务业受损,拖累CPI下行转负。生产端PPI年内下跌反弹,主要受到大宗商品能源价格先跌后涨影响,国内经济复苏步伐不变,主动加库存背景下,PPI将进一步修复。</span></strong></span></p><p><br /></p><p><img data-ratio="0.42857142857142855" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxRbBahNmrNwtLicwZia9O37Os17ZnRDUIcLj6EyXqoLKcMd6ctsCA8hxAp9VPd9ceqsGbuLTPIwKcA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="height: auto !important;" /></p><p><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.75em;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">以GDP平减指数,代表整体物价水平,除二季度轻微通缩外,三季度物价水平已回升,通缩风险整体不大。</span></strong></span></p><p><br /></p><p><img data-ratio="0.4329004329004329" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxRbBahNmrNwtLicwZia9O37Oia6pZFQ4h8k2PF3YLRaCzM7ed6Jll1Q5QHNPicAtX9qMIqMPX9BQicugg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="height: auto !important;" /></p><p><br /></p><section style="width: 566.438px;border-width: initial;border-color: initial;border-style: none;"><section style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(78, 153, 223);clear: both;border-top-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-right-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-left-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);text-align: left;"><section style="padding-top: 0.3rem;padding-right: 0.8rem;padding-left: 0.8rem;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top-left-radius: 10px;font-size: 1rem;background-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">2.2 流动性</span></strong></section></section></section><p style="line-height: 1.75em;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">作为宏观经济周期的另一个外部约束,流动性,主要从银行间市场的无风险利率和资金的可得性衡量,隔夜S</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">HIBOR&nbsp;</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">2020年二、三季度有所上升,但四季度</span></strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">已进入下行趋势。</span></span></p><p><br /></p><p><img data-ratio="0.3939393939393939" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxRbBahNmrNwtLicwZia9O37OaNT63XysBCM6EV4pIVSbEhpypnsyLGHBMfMRzCEosLDFwiay5kj16Tg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="height: auto !important;" /></p><p><br /></p><section style="width: 566.438px;border-width: initial;border-color: initial;border-style: none;"><section style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(78, 153, 223);clear: both;border-top-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-right-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-left-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);text-align: left;"><section style="padding-top: 0.3rem;padding-right: 0.8rem;padding-left: 0.8rem;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top-left-radius: 10px;font-size: 1rem;background-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 等线;">2.3&nbsp;利率</span></strong></section></section></section><p style="line-height: 1.75em;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">实际利率,即名义利率和通胀预期的差值,名义利率不变,通胀预期下降,使得当前经济体的实际利率总体上处于上行趋势,整体融资成本依然较高。</span></strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p><img data-ratio="0.39826839826839827" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxRbBahNmrNwtLicwZia9O37OrLGe5DPkjDZHejCNdgic8aPSBwiaFIja75z6LL3Hxjiaz8KsibL2tcDEiaA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="height: auto !important;" /></p><p><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.75em;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">实际利率内部结构分歧很大,生产者实际利率持续高位回落,消费者实际利率缓涨,尤其是购房者实际利率近期由负转正,地产需求可能承压。</span></strong></span></p><p><br /></p><p><img data-ratio="0.46464646464646464" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxRbBahNmrNwtLicwZia9O37O9iclxb64bmNC2XE0P9PtpP6AlFhnVF4QqUNMZGPALn0RmL35jA0BLXQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="height: auto !important;" /></p><p><br /></p><section style="width: 566.438px;border-width: initial;border-color: initial;border-style: none;"><section style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(78, 153, 223);clear: both;border-top-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-right-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-left-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);text-align: left;"><section style="padding-top: 0.3rem;padding-right: 0.8rem;padding-left: 0.8rem;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top-left-radius: 10px;font-size: 1rem;background-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>2.4 宏观流动性</strong></span></section></section></section><p style="line-height: 1.75em;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">主要是从M2和GDP的增速差来衡量,当M2与GDP的增速差扩大的时候,流动性越充足;由于央行逆周期释放流动性,M2和GDP的增速差在年初疫情期间扩大,当前面临经济反弹与货币政策边际收紧,防止经济过热。</span></strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p><img data-ratio="0.3838383838383838" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxRbBahNmrNwtLicwZia9O37OYo765JkXmTmoCvdeemGLm8Mpn301AqTL46GibIGAflEp83jpXpybHkw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="height: auto !important;" /></p><p><br /></p><section style="width: 566.438px;border-width: initial;border-color: initial;border-style: none;"><section style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(78, 153, 223);clear: both;border-top-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-right-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-left-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);text-align: left;"><section style="padding-top: 0.3rem;padding-right: 0.8rem;padding-left: 0.8rem;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top-left-radius: 10px;font-size: 1rem;background-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>2.5 房地产市场</strong></span></section></section></section><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">2021年下半年市场可能进入下降共振周期,需警惕房价下行风险。</span></strong></span></p><p><img data-ratio="0.4314574314574315" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxRbBahNmrNwtLicwZia9O37OHNSOz2HwEv8teY7jQ9MkVGroET6KfHUovaZUATj3vW1RYN2ep8FlicA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="height: auto !important;" /></p><p><br /></p><section style="width: 566.438px;border-width: initial;border-color: initial;border-style: none;"><section style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(78, 153, 223);clear: both;border-top-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-right-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-left-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);text-align: left;"><section style="padding-top: 0.3rem;padding-right: 0.8rem;padding-left: 0.8rem;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top-left-radius: 10px;font-size: 1rem;background-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 等线;">2.6&nbsp;</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 等线;">狭义货币供应量</span></strong></section></section></section><p style="line-height: 1.75em;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">M1作为企业活期存款,反映企业生产所用资金,M1持续走高说明经济活跃度持续上升,房价走势与M1基本同步。</span></strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">&nbsp;</span></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p><img data-ratio="0.3968253968253968" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxRbBahNmrNwtLicwZia9O37OaMUcAT3xh7pRrGrJbEn2ic7Kvaf8WDSicQYsot1KkR0y5DOibtXiawO1FA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="height: auto !important;" /></p><p><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.75em;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">M1与300城二手房房价,M1领先于房价变动一年左右,当前正处于从2019年四季度之后的复苏周期中。</span></strong></span></p><p><br /></p><p><img data-ratio="0.43867243867243866" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxRbBahNmrNwtLicwZia9O37O0NywejdlXRUYDicxhwo3Py4wWC9ib29U1ThvFAYfDjknYOy1JlwH2cPg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="height: auto !important;" /></p><p><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.75em;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">通过对M1的预测,预计2021年一季度会有一轮的流动性释放,之后趋稳。</span></strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p><img data-ratio="0.36363636363636365" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxRbBahNmrNwtLicwZia9O37Of9SibCCWnZddb6K1XmeY9LqaceVtibuWBGTpTdFgxfLD4huPdsSFCl0A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="height: auto !important;" /></p><p><br /></p><section style="width: 566.438px;border-width: initial;border-color: initial;border-style: none;"><section style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(78, 153, 223);clear: both;border-top-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-right-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-left-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);text-align: left;"><section style="padding-top: 0.3rem;padding-right: 0.8rem;padding-left: 0.8rem;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top-left-radius: 10px;font-size: 1rem;background-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>2.7 地产供应</strong></span></section></section></section><p style="line-height: 1.75em;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">房地产补充原材料-土地库存仍维持负增长,融资管理新规“三条红线”限制拿地速度。2018年后竣工面积及待售面积长期维持负增长,随着新开工及竣工逐步恢复正增长,叠加低库存,中短期供应大概率不足。</span></strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p><img data-ratio="0.4025974025974026" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxRbBahNmrNwtLicwZia9O37Oh6lqh97OAgLMngqbZketZBQh0Ju9h6hjbudibFcUZTmdQlDibtgU9CxA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="693" style="height: auto !important;" /></p><p><br /></p><section style="width: 566.438px;border-width: initial;border-color: initial;border-style: none;"><section style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(78, 153, 223);clear: both;border-top-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-right-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);border-left-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);text-align: left;"><section style="padding-top: 0.3rem;padding-right: 0.8rem;padding-left: 0.8rem;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top-left-radius: 10px;font-size: 1rem;background-color: rgb(78, 153, 223);"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>2.8 宏观经济周期外在约束小结</strong></span></section></section></section><p style="line-height: 1.75em;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">整体通缩风险不大,融资成本依然较高,前期逆周期流动性释放后面临边际收紧。</span></strong></span></p><p><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.75em;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 13px;font-family: 等线;">需求和生产是周期的内在约束,通胀和债务(流动性)是外部约束,CPI,PPI虽处于负增长,但随着经济复苏物价水平将得到修复,宽货币逐步过渡到宽信用(政策疏大于堵),信用利差或有修复,房地产供应中短期偏紧。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.75em;text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.75em;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><span style="text-align: center;font-family: Wingdings;"><span style="font-family: Arial;font-size: 13px;font-weight: 700;text-align: left;">•&nbsp;</span>&nbsp;</span><span style="text-align: center;font-family: 等线;">从内在约束看,内外需复苏,经济向繁荣迈进,中国经济正处于“复苏寻顶”阶段。</span></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.75em;text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.75em;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><span style="text-align: center;font-family: Wingdings;font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: Arial;font-size: 13px;font-weight: 700;text-align: left;">•&nbsp;</span>&nbsp;</span><span style="text-align: center;font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;">从外在约束看,宏观流动性前期宽松政策面临边际收紧,以防经济过热,整体融资成本偏高。</span></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.75em;text-align: left;"><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><section style="display: inline-block;color: inherit;"><section style="margin-top: 0.2em;padding-right: 0.4em;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 0.4em;color: rgb(107, 77, 64);font-size: 3em;line-height: 1;border-bottom: 3px solid rgb(107, 77, 64);border-top-color: rgb(107, 77, 64);border-right-color: rgb(107, 77, 64);border-left-color: rgb(107, 77, 64);"><em>Part 3</em></section><section style="margin-top: 0.8em;padding-right: 0.5em;padding-left: 0.5em;color: rgb(107, 77, 64);"><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;">总结</span></strong></section></section><p><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><span style="font-weight: bold;font-family: Arial;">•&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;">从需求侧出发,实际通缩压力不大,央行放水力度减弱,购房人群贷款实际利率增加,短期市场需求承压。</span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">•&nbsp;</span><strong>从供给侧出发,土地库存、待售面积长期负增长,叠加销售面积及新开工面积恢复,地产市场中短期供应大概率不足。</strong></span></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 等线;"><strong><span style="font-family: Arial;">•&nbsp;</span><strong>从地产商运营出发,未来市场可能进入下降共振周期,需警惕房价下行风险,三道红线政策收紧地产融资加剧资金偏紧局面,可以适当降价出货,确保资金回笼,夯实城市筛选工作,作进一步战略性投资布局。我们认为,当前情况下房地产企业为加速资金周转,加快开工建设和竣工等行为可以维持投资增速暂时不出现断崖式下跌,但偏紧的行业状况也令房地产投资继续加速的可能性极小。</strong></strong></span></strong></span></p></section></section><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><section label="Copyright © 2014 playhudong All Rights Reserved." style="border-width: initial;border-style: none;border-color: initial;margin-top: 5px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;background-image: none;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;" donone="shifuMouseDownOther(&#39;shifu_o_024&#39;)"><img data-ratio="0.1565217391304348" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIxRbBahNmrNwtLicwZia9O37OQG7YDic1P49j3L55sEA1IW0Kanf5e8uT31a704xxGu11EYCTbPibNoAQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="115" style="width: 60px;margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto;display: block;height: auto !important;" /></section><section label="Copyright © 2014 playhudong All Rights Reserved." style="border-width: initial;border-style: none;border-color: initial;margin-top: 5px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;background-image: none;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;" donone="shifuMouseDownOther(&#39;shifu_o_024&#39;)"><br /></section><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;min-height: 1em;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: left;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;min-height: 1em;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: left;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">往期文章彩蛋:戳开阅读&nbsp;</strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;min-height: 1em;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: left;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247500175&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=3fbc713076ba2e704a952e4120a67d92&amp;chksm=9756bbaba02132bd07b859fe11735db5d52e58a5e455044302d7c3aafe915c58a0534199eda0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzjjPtmJcV7uZNz2VicrZFklE7jJve3f8ayiaMhtD0NnXJCewDDMyRjAwc16iau6qLy16wnxmZUlVTKQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 100%;height: auto !important;" data-backw="562" data-backh="86" /></span></strong></span></a></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;min-height: 1em;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247499381&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=65ff2e55fb2c181f7f7aebcc218a80cf&amp;chksm=97568451a0210d4710bceae1d3db966cab0d48d1dfd5aed0bbf3e1e4af45b49c8d0e2129dc79&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1"><span style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;inset: auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;inset: auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzjjPtmJcV7uZNz2VicrZFklhrsPz01CH0tic43enIibEPfcUmoXVhdicq1tpg244GDQC8QBjyhpfy7qw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 100%;height: auto !important;" data-backw="562" data-backh="86" /></span></span></a></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;min-height: 1em;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247498973&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=1aaab084cd6af3f485939e3482eb3675&amp;chksm=975686f9a0210fef007ad7bb7de9d38f8ca1d2dd3daffecf7dc8c3d1453b282341cc9aaaa256&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1"><span style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;inset: auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;inset: auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzjjPtmJcV7uZNz2VicrZFklibSN8FChPk0GROCreic0HH6BrNXBXspiar0ISZhcHXR59icxQCGqnjPiaFQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 100%;height: auto !important;" data-backw="562" data-backh="86" /></span></span></a></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;min-height: 1em;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247498768&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b33c01777e072220f954de526615c45d&amp;chksm=97568634a0210f22ffa9650953c4042a5ef6d67edee515233c81583ac92d0a804a88aad6dc2e&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1"><span style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;inset: auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;inset: auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="0.15350877192982457" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzjjPtmJcV7uZNz2VicrZFkl10ia5Zs3Mj6zCH51WZJLYRxLLibbWbtncMEE7ztuU3iaSQpPV3dqKJy1w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="912" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 100%;height: auto !important;" data-backw="562" data-backh="86" /></span></span></a></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;min-height: 1em;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247498458&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=23b88732c3e88088fd96a65a939d3b02&amp;chksm=975680fea02109e8f99f5f7feced95901624f2e3d42ce02985f7103988c4f0d3c2d71a0d295f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="1"><span style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;inset: auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;inset: auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/6hyaE7lBTM4KHBib9JZ7ia4WAzh4pWXGzEP9pJMzzLtxM9XIDhOsPosnsySDfPvETumiaAgCOt2iaFZe3UrVY0P11w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.1583610188261351" data-w="903" style="box-sizing: border-box;border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: initial;width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;height: auto !important;" data-backw="562" data-backh="89" /></span></span></a></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;" /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><p style="white-space: normal;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;"><strong><span style="font-size: 13px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);">#2021,真好野#</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><img data-ratio="1.4146772767462423" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIxRbBahNmrNwtLicwZia9O37OEBZ9pSmeibMEj5bf4mneZz5Hd9GjhpC4OpERWtNhI5d3hLwGDWxX8pg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1131" style="width: 677px !important;visibility: visible !important;height: auto !important;" title="https://image.ipaiban.com/upload-ueditor-image-20210202-1612233801374060847.jpg" /></p><p style="white-space: normal;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0.54px;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 12px;font-weight: 700;letter-spacing: 2px;text-align: center;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong style="font-size: 16px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">·</span></strong>猜你想再看<strong style="font-size: 16px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">·</span></strong></span></section></section></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="708" data-color="#fcb42b" data-custom="#fcb42b" style="white-space: normal;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: initial;"><section style="padding: 35px;border-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);color: rgb(242, 220, 219);background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);"><section><section style="border-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);color: inherit;font-size: 14px;text-align: justify;line-height: 1.75em;"><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;font-size: 17px;text-indent: 0em;text-align: left;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0.54px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>城市:</strong>|&nbsp;</span><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831649&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=191239418c15b0c6f395c843415da5fd&amp;chksm=8351793eb426f028970ac64031955167bfde997cdc96375bfb3bce25b5076f1458e11be2be27&amp;token=217203186&amp;lang=zh_CN&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">徐州</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831649&amp;idx=4&amp;sn=3a8acfb05820bbd38cd7b15a58e92ec9&amp;chksm=8351793eb426f028dfd96ec6ffc5239a84aaf25b6643813aa6b4a597b9a3215e7ab25e2b4eaf&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">宿迁</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831649&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=1fcdc66fac79d5ba9504bc24314a14f9&amp;chksm=8351793eb426f02829eef9ba1dfcb8c3e91edb05d3c1d34c548b82f618928834f1da5907d2e7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">淮北</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831649&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=18d65f24543e71ff6bc70eb1cb0a7bde&amp;chksm=8351793eb426f028b98805f0f7555bfc57e3aefe6c76e7ca8df0369ad5dcc4a593a011a9b029&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">唐山</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831649&amp;idx=5&amp;sn=9f550e5d1f6bd3becc92df723adedd61&amp;chksm=8351793eb426f0289523b13ecd4fcb3d227a3cb259a09e504d388ace5a5eb25ece3aecfe8d46&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">天津</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831491&amp;idx=4&amp;sn=4c4fb5ce9d25c1fe6012d719c5878c82&amp;chksm=8351799cb426f08a8a6b9f35c8db84ceac56401b6da4a6429d1bc5e3339251db372a5045c242&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">深汕</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=5&amp;sn=c2d8bae147d4a2d86ec992c50c39ddad&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a50b1acbe92593aabba12c3fb95e9966d93ecad99918dbcf654b9ce767405&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">哈尔滨</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831491&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=1e787f725d62f227dbc6c33d0b9ea3eb&amp;chksm=8351799cb426f08accd8896c160b37e7a4436d21e1fbf2cc596763115db5ef6e04dc914ce478&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">兰州</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=4&amp;sn=048088acd651254d77cc238d71b1af04&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a7c36e33460f244db68a856502151c73820b314470b7e24412b9a8b6dcd5b&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">常德</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831491&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=b6295a149a38a026e886d81014b568f3&amp;chksm=8351799cb426f08a8a8d7adbd8721956fd91c59be8bd1ec35d4f9963a11e7e67bee72cd49405&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">南宁</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=8&amp;sn=0efaff09c26e604d7aa5c29376c129ad&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07abb37dd11a0cfe941868be2b543feebf288460418759254327292658947ae&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">桂林</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=12f08ffb076544edcbc24e91bc3d87d7&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a1cd4530a9033d462d4732c500dcdda723bdc3a87f4d55f1c62f657a4cb77&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">柳州</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=6&amp;sn=0a89c4ab17039cec25754aa111b87308&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a6fdc14a1c0e877928f2fa46798a8b592b2b2023ad1c65081bbc80b2fafad&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">蚌埠</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=7&amp;sn=1bc72e377ffc3b621c2886d68c437515&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07adc8c50a3e1409197892c508ad9c27a6b52f8e4dde12740baf5674f5a7fa6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">合肥</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831491&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=10e3d481f7fd0ff46dafe2648cd3ddfb&amp;chksm=8351799cb426f08a5118705d6b85487fa97dd013a2aee842be719ee13086aab8dee370b54185&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">南京</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9ffda0c7d9667d6700966a8bab12eccf&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a4e94a2471b2d59264ed4460e0567c63095fad9c5704541a546d7bc23584a&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">上海临港</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831065&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2ffb60d98d02ebcab655c55d34d0acbf&amp;chksm=83517746b426fe509cc721e0e3acf05fd1f60b8695dc3b66c08c0a7aa917e7471b013b02c2c2&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">太原</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830804&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f571d8218b897b21571a6b2f497d3a1b&amp;chksm=8351744bb426fd5d509591673f4082563a02342283f53dfda255ad33304e6746d6448051b9ea&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">温州</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830454&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=4e7c3289190e2a69c5fb20f2ae8a6d94&amp;chksm=835175e9b426fcffa5f65cafe5274b1c296caf1a51e13ef4c7920c5a18847bef3c7b13c2bfd0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">昆明</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830295&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f680ffa2ddf52783e9a7730971520d48&amp;chksm=83517248b426fb5e0efc1e5c62d15b173e4d23ab7aafaab82c6ce861e98d96271fe5dc7db798&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">嘉兴</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830278&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8441ac780477cd9def8d4e9d7866f143&amp;chksm=83517259b426fb4f93ff50f1c07d7b830f16ec4d1e0c23f64ef15a78a056ae301274ffbb8ec3&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">重庆</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830196&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7a599cf338734c1d41c6fa16005b1641&amp;chksm=835172ebb426fbfdda6873adbeddc124ae670de675a7c36d11977106150a1d924572ea70f299&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">成都</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830221&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f5994dbfe9fa00ffce4b5be1a69f3244&amp;chksm=83517292b426fb8419e771cf48ea94de01fc7dc909b4e8c2759c6423b8be6080bc5bd1c248cc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">深圳</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=cd78421e4f2e724f552f8eefc65e0236&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa26aed46ed566bc1f8ffa11498370fed14fa9d0690795a3eff5a186c63a03d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">上海</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829512&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=421f2b766d75009082de8fc1e81cd8d2&amp;chksm=83517157b426f84197c93fd852a3e3f93019c9d81e099784ad0aa09f326ca9dd33a0edb7cfd7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">珠三角</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829480&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c77baf137c109f1017170a708548d37b&amp;chksm=835171b7b426f8a1d942708988b8f4bd875366f5928d1db99470ccad6958aa0c8cd47b292c23&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">雄安新区</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=401964235&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8839375241e6a7e69f49aec108ca1ad6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">无锡</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=203026648&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=466dca69ff3eb746e2e5c21831d57f0f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">北京</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;<br /></span></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;font-size: 17px;text-indent: 0em;text-align: left;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0.54px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>热点:</strong>|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247485505&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=90a4482d0ec14f8a4d441f77c653806c&amp;chksm=97557265a022fb7385559a6648c54242c721582b3811ad664360ea1e6f562f0f62264852c20c&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" hasload="1" data-itemshowtype="0" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">深圳土拍</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong>|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831957&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=a889b497d60264ef90aea585e4d4556f&amp;chksm=83517bcab426f2dc5e2b3778bc8e8834b453c4eac98c490ebeb525c4a5b01093fe602418b8fb&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">美国地产</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831073&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b9e813dced68e2e1397bd2cc2b6d05c7&amp;chksm=8351777eb426fe68993e996d9312897701ad0e93a7703c5d719dc20ebf09a1b0c6715f502e4d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">长租公寓</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830578&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=73f5149b299d5ce19a433c365eedee83&amp;chksm=8351756db426fc7b173558a1765830766ec5f7fb387e652250f10a106ef6490821f809722cfb&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">中美贸易战</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830503&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2fae9eec64a6ed71f0c4ee9e4e9bafe7&amp;chksm=835175b8b426fcaec41bb2a484ef939ac78474c77acde2d96a6f7f8b61a0f4ade630c13e7f90&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">粤港澳</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830398&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=ffd40b9cb7730bd712d8f053280d6fa9&amp;chksm=83517221b426fb37e97b45db61547227724f5a09e6a2a0484a55475066ac41fc1b0165954d0d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">万科商业</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|</span></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: left;font-size: 17px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.5em;letter-spacing: 0.54px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"><section style="margin: 5px 8px;line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;"><strong>专业:</strong>|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831987&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8553537eb64de48a9b7eb16564fe8988&amp;chksm=83517becb426f2fa0c63ef59ace65085334609b45795331170f0edb7f455d154c06d53aa85f7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">穿越熊市</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831371&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9b15fe316680aabc64e2b7c37e5767d8&amp;chksm=83517614b426ff0229de8ab490c6a7fb33f9e7de34bae145abd3565818c5965c1eca5a4b0029&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">地产研报</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831103&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6ae2c7ba214abd19c76ed907399b77b7&amp;chksm=83517760b426fe767422812a59d53a334c00664a2cc146d59a076bc0e59a062f518c7df00861&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">投资</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831043&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=dcae4bb0d9c69a6aefeb48f7447dff10&amp;chksm=8351775cb426fe4a32f43b1fe3a11ebffb7d381291adc0746d6d0ed9f3efb882617e0407aa10&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;思考</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830765&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=d21dbefeb5e1aea1599bcec8fae7a7d4&amp;chksm=835174b2b426fda4b66776ffb3da368f2b71e44233e17581d647b246e52aa53255140e3adac0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">客研</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830698&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=27ffa7f097500e9e7fb23f99fdce51ef&amp;chksm=835174f5b426fde3854d2eec6dc6fd1c0c182faa0218d1b0ce833e50c860c23b062b88f914e0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">高周转</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830656&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=dc61474f9d09133fcce2934476ea10c1&amp;chksm=835174dfb426fdc9575a9a316aef5c25d051f574d0cd96ae3d1cda189bca7c7b0b7447e403e4&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">房价预测</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830201&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=1816623486b879233513443f1df6ec59&amp;chksm=835172e6b426fbf07aa0f023c3ff79ca1cf11606fc2f2b66cfe773222e3fa1df7f92affa90b6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">远郊定位&nbsp;</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">|&nbsp;</span><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829710&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=58d632f4b07dc0796127ef5df605bb36&amp;chksm=83517091b426f9871fa25aed40ade8d757557347ecf505d8b9510645b5adcc6d703caed90b31&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">时势蓝图</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">&nbsp;|</span></section></section></section></section></section></section>

← 返回观点全库