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2021年下半年全国房地产市场预判

发布于 2021-08-31

<section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;" data-mpa-powered-by="yiban.io"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="background: rgb(252, 255, 247);border-radius: 26px 8px 8px 26px;border-width: 1px;border-style: dotted;border-color: rgb(16, 86, 58);display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 32px;height: 32px;background: #7AAD77;border-radius: 50% 50%;text-align: center;margin-left: 9px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><p style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Medium, PingFang SC;font-weight: bold;color: #FFFFFF;line-height: 32px;" data-mid="">1</p></section><section style="padding: 0px 10px 0px 8px;height: 50px;text-align: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><p style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Medium, PingFang SC;font-weight: bold;color: #7AAD77;line-height: 50px;" data-mid="">2021年上半年房价回顾</p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">1、2021年上半年市场整体表现一般,全国平均增速仅1.7%,但仍有结构性机会,跑赢大势的城市,除了长三角区域,还有关中平原城市群;<br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2、大西北继续高歌猛进,四五线城市也有成绩不俗的,鄂尔多斯房价提升值同比增长了31.24%,领跑全国;紧随其后的是商洛,陕西省地级市,2021年上半年房价提升值同比增长了25.22%;<br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">3、再次感慨,行情再差,祖国还是有很多机会和挑战,就看有没有眼光和运气。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="307" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ylxcmoNYGPKUKVBTXAqxnFoNrRHM9UdWGaq8t67xl7Dhbric4J7bNNCh0HFjx3Jzw5IaSibCAaVTg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="width: 546px;height: 307px;" /></section><section style="line-height: normal;text-indent: 0in;text-align: left;direction: ltr;unicode-bidi: embed;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-variant: normal;color: rgb(72, 72, 93);letter-spacing: 0px;font-weight: normal;font-style: normal;vertical-align: baseline;font-size: 10px;"><span style="font-variant: normal;color: rgb(72, 72, 93);font-weight: normal;font-style: normal;vertical-align: baseline;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;">方法说明:整体来看,全国房屋均价的变化,不仅仅反映了全国经济发展水平的变化,也体现了货币总量和通胀水平的变化,所以,我们认为,要去看具体某个城市的房价变化情况,把全国作为基准值,换算出每一个城市的提升值,再来看每一个城市提升值的变化,更容易帮我们找出那些跑赢全国大势的城市。</span>2021年房价提升值同比=(2021某城市房价/2021年全国平均房价)/(2020年某城市房价/2020年全国平均房价)-1</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="background: rgb(252, 255, 247);border-radius: 26px 8px 8px 26px;border-width: 1px;border-style: dotted;border-color: rgb(16, 86, 58);display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 32px;height: 32px;background: #7AAD77;border-radius: 50% 50%;text-align: center;margin-left: 9px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><p style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Medium, PingFang SC;font-weight: bold;color: #FFFFFF;line-height: 32px;" data-mid="">2</p></section><section style="padding: 0px 10px 0px 8px;height: 50px;text-align: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><p style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Medium, PingFang SC;font-weight: bold;color: #7AAD77;line-height: 50px;" data-mid="">二手房市场结构及变化趋势</p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">注:研究的是挂牌数据,不是成交数据</span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">1、主流单价段为0.6w-1.4w区间;0.4w-1w区间房源占比下降明显;<br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ylxcmoNYGPKUKVBTXAqxn797x1hohSQsIRdZjg7Nic548o3cJ4yuQL3ticbYvbUFY0KoPxyEseFgg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2、主流区间为75-130㎡。从变化趋势来看,刚需面积80㎡以下面积段普遍上升,95-140㎡改善面积占比下降;<br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ylxcmoNYGPKUKVBTXAqxncfYb17gf7XTBy9iabdicr1ic2FqTX9iaSJicHxhl6JGeLq83icXM4oX9ddAg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">3、主流总价段为50-125w区间,140w以上房源占比有所提升。</span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ylxcmoNYGPKUKVBTXAqxn8IvHzJSt7hEnqHAQ6C7Xd3NxAALtyoFeLSopC5icicpnkRbQonGmhlnA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="background: rgb(252, 255, 247);border-radius: 26px 8px 8px 26px;border-width: 1px;border-style: dotted;border-color: rgb(16, 86, 58);display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 32px;height: 32px;background: #7AAD77;border-radius: 50% 50%;text-align: center;margin-left: 9px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><p style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Medium, PingFang SC;font-weight: bold;color: #FFFFFF;line-height: 32px;" data-mid="">3</p></section><section style="padding: 0px 10px 0px 8px;height: 50px;text-align: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><p style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Medium, PingFang SC;font-weight: bold;color: #7AAD77;line-height: 50px;" data-mid="">新房市场结构及变化趋势</p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 10px;text-align: center;">注:研究的是成交数据</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);font-size: 10px;text-align: center;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">1、全国主流在80-140㎡;随城市线越弱,主流面积段越大,其中一线中300㎡以上大面积段有一定需求规模;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ylxcmoNYGPKUKVBTXAqxng8PglaGYk0nEf86ibMbJRibuOLKUfiaUicCA2XZBtaxgicq7iazLksP5DPuA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2、全国提升明显的面积区间为70-110㎡,五线城市130-150㎡改善区间表现突出。<br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ylxcmoNYGPKUKVBTXAqxnVVWANScJsPehtCefY4lbxaqn8OR5fm7xUDGaMthETJLaiaTDmZbwQ6Q/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;min-height: 1em;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="background: rgb(252, 255, 247);border-radius: 26px 8px 8px 26px;border-width: 1px;border-style: dotted;border-color: rgb(16, 86, 58);display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 32px;height: 32px;background: #7AAD77;border-radius: 50% 50%;text-align: center;margin-left: 9px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><p style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Medium, PingFang SC;font-weight: bold;color: #FFFFFF;line-height: 32px;" data-mid="">4</p></section><section style="padding: 0px 10px 0px 8px;height: 50px;text-align: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><p style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Medium, PingFang SC;font-weight: bold;color: #7AAD77;line-height: 50px;" data-mid="">从房价增速来看,可以发现</p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">1、2021年上半年,全国市场平均增速仅1.7%,泉州为最大赢家;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br /></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>2、对比前三年,全国市场进入冰点</strong>(2017-2018年全国平均增速为18.3%,2018年-2019年增速为4.2%,2019-2020年增速为3.6%);<br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ylxcmoNYGPKUKVBTXAqxneVWJdNcHZNkkTKMCEEFpV7QDW8v1MFSbZe9CY9YCC6PUNWppaVTuzQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">3、全国房价平均增速,连续四年下降,需要警惕房价增长周期已经接近尾声,年初我们给的建议依旧有效——<span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">房地产开发商,买地投资还是要谨慎理性,盲目追高也可能让企业陷入经营危机,至于个人投资者,卖股买房万万不可,小心成为楼市接盘侠。</span></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="background: rgb(252, 255, 247);border-radius: 26px 8px 8px 26px;border-width: 1px;border-style: dotted;border-color: rgb(16, 86, 58);display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 32px;height: 32px;background: #7AAD77;border-radius: 50% 50%;text-align: center;margin-left: 9px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><p style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Medium, PingFang SC;font-weight: bold;color: #FFFFFF;line-height: 32px;" data-mid="">5<br /></p></section><section style="padding: 0px 10px 0px 8px;height: 50px;text-align: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><p style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Medium, PingFang SC;font-weight: bold;color: #7AAD77;line-height: 50px;" data-mid="">从房价增幅的莫兰指数来看</p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;min-height: 1em;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;min-height: 1em;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 14px;">接下来,我们希望通过研究房价增幅的历史变化趋势,利用莫兰指数,摸索出房价在城市间轮动的特征。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;min-height: 1em;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;min-height: 1em;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;">方法说明:莫兰空间聚集说明:</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;min-height: 1em;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;">①HH区 (High-High):城市房价增速高,周边城市也高;</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;min-height: 1em;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;">②HL区 (High-Low) :城市房价增速高,周边城市低;</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;min-height: 1em;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;">③LH区(Low-High) :城市房价增速低,周边城市高;</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;min-height: 1em;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;">④LL区 (Low-Low):城市房价增速低,周边城市也低。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;"><br style="white-space: normal;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">1、从房价增速莫兰指数来看,2021年上半年,呈现一核三点的增长趋势,东部沿海一轴为增长核心;</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ylxcmoNYGPKUKVBTXAqxnmW1FZvZnDw6xRllZDEtkvupHwMrzWBasyNrGElLKQIK56IpJicZiaw8Q/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2、过去三年,<span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">北强南弱→西北突围→西南崛起,长三角一直都是赢家,</span>到今年市场增长进入冰点,东部沿海依旧是增长聚集区域,接下来呢?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">热点区域主要将集中在华北、东北、西南、湖南和粤东地区(分析详见part 6)。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ylxcmoNYGPKUKVBTXAqxnGVOnUau3zxVYjunTjrAHlYn1nnHsS1XOib2R6TBqvNuiaNvT3PicgMIrQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">通过人口、土地、资金36个指标将全国城市细分为7个等级,再来看看:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ylxcmoNYGPKUKVBTXAqxngzxsTH1aJZgzOwoicquXVnVoOR6lHjczauKTf5qIkGaO6iaJhcjojDMg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">可以看到:过去三年城市价格增长“从弱到强”,<strong>2021年则呈现多极化趋势</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ylxcmoNYGPKUKVBTXAqxnx9X8E1hfJZjCofbNszku23e3k0ZT9iaZGjKBy5OiaNtticn3z7LIBnAaA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="background: rgb(252, 255, 247);border-radius: 26px 8px 8px 26px;border-width: 1px;border-style: dotted;border-color: rgb(16, 86, 58);display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 32px;height: 32px;background: #7AAD77;border-radius: 50% 50%;text-align: center;margin-left: 9px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><p style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Medium, PingFang SC;font-weight: bold;color: #FFFFFF;line-height: 32px;" data-mid="">6</p></section><section style="padding: 0px 10px 0px 8px;height: 50px;text-align: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><p style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Medium, PingFang SC;font-weight: bold;color: #7AAD77;line-height: 50px;" data-mid="">房价增速预判</p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 14px;">我们继续深入研究,通过研究混沌理论中奇异吸引子,以及宏观因子对房价的影响,得到未来房价增长的趋势以及区域轮动机会的预判。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;">方法说明:</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;">房价因子混沌预测</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;">1、混沌预测:利用Takens嵌入定理及城市房价历史数据,重建房价混沌系统整体运动轨迹,得到房价混沌预测。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;">2、宏观因子预测:将全国房价三年涨幅与城市宏观指标三年涨幅 &amp; 指标绝对值建模,筛选城市房价影响因子,并根据筛选出的因子对房价进行预测。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;">3、计算上述两者的算数平均,根据概率模拟生成城市各个区域的房价增幅。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从房价增速预测的结果上看,2021年下半年,全国价格微跌(-0.4%),但其中东莞、廊坊、北京仍有较大概率上涨,但需要结合量的预测,综合去看待市场。</span><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ylxcmoNYGPKUKVBTXAqxnOHrm1Bn0jSkjaNYEqhl36urkg9kvhZEQxzp5cTiaTqKoicLNDYWiagRcg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="background: rgb(252, 255, 247);border-radius: 26px 8px 8px 26px;border-width: 1px;border-style: dotted;border-color: rgb(16, 86, 58);display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 32px;height: 32px;background: #7AAD77;border-radius: 50% 50%;text-align: center;margin-left: 9px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><p style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Medium, PingFang SC;font-weight: bold;color: #FFFFFF;line-height: 32px;" data-mid="">7</p></section><section style="padding: 0px 10px 0px 8px;height: 50px;text-align: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><p style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Medium, PingFang SC;font-weight: bold;color: #7AAD77;line-height: 50px;" data-mid="">房价增速莫兰指数</p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从房价增幅的莫兰指数来看,2021年下半年,主要以京津冀、大湾区为核心增长聚集区;<br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG5ylxcmoNYGPKUKVBTXAqxnjXU1sVzKv7ibSLRNWeh7x7W3Y3o0IG0L5wdKth5wicV2zBibnibiaxB7UIQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">结合信心周期和房价预测的矩阵分析,2021年下半年量价齐涨的区域主要集中在华北、东北、西南、湖南和粤东地区。</span></strong><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="586" data-backw="546" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="586" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1.073968705547653" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4d7avZFxiaSuT4BoxuDwB1cHHNiaOtxm1fANZUOnP1cwaW0XmKNXdA5oWPh915Dz1wia8n2EbdgsI8A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="703" style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;width: 100%;height: auto;" /></span></strong></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="451" data-backw="546" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="458" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.8265204386839482" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/zd226QNNqG4d7avZFxiaSuT4BoxuDwB1ccC5qEB7SWANMyZdEtHQyXdcictnaDkfHX8XNzhbQ1qD4YjiagR7y3BEg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1003" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="background: rgb(252, 255, 247);border-radius: 26px 8px 8px 26px;border-width: 1px;border-style: dotted;border-color: rgb(16, 86, 58);display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 32px;height: 32px;background: #7AAD77;border-radius: 50% 50%;text-align: center;margin-left: 9px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><p style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Medium, PingFang SC;font-weight: bold;color: #FFFFFF;line-height: 32px;" data-mid="">8</p></section><section style="padding: 0px 10px 0px 8px;height: 50px;text-align: center;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><p style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Medium, PingFang SC;font-weight: bold;color: #7AAD77;line-height: 50px;" data-mid="">结构性机会</p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">城市分化加剧,不论企业投资买地,还是个人投机炒房,都需要大胆假设,小心求证,比如说:</span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">北京:上半年价格上涨后,市场信心高位回落,预计12月破零线,市场重回低迷</span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4d7avZFxiaSuT4BoxuDwB1cfZTvicZ1LJOzKSFHmDzSlAVT9mia59szzBGESbuwDAFQokkvGx9aia6rQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">成都:价格已持续一年上涨,2021年信心持续回落,预计2022年破零线,市场进入低迷</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4d7avZFxiaSuT4BoxuDwB1cIwCSHT5SB9K2RTldZgic0lERZT0mdhknBKP4UDpFHNtFXfv5icspibklQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">上海:价格持续一年上涨,下半年市场信心持续回落,未破零线,价格增长趋于稳定</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4d7avZFxiaSuT4BoxuDwB1cnT6HoZV34kJPdg6lSWrlj4gx2RPOs8jU9dWbicmJnX5WEK4pwJeicczQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">广州:价格已持续一年拉涨,下半年市场信心持续高位回落,预计明年5月跌破零线</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4d7avZFxiaSuT4BoxuDwB1caSKQKCaZvsSCjmV6rSxPSfpD3RUEiahv6GcVQkOOREBW0XyibHibM71rg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">深圳:受调控影响,下半年市场信心持续探底,预计2022年开始回暖</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4d7avZFxiaSuT4BoxuDwB1cZibchwp6LAaibDvV6Iic3Dl4DdVjUy8tARZsxCBvzUZYpSHBwMo4aaCZQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">重庆:目前市场信心处于冲高阶段,价格增长有支撑,预计10月开始高位回落</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4d7avZFxiaSuT4BoxuDwB1cytgNeadUqEHSTQiavKAicYIgOUR6Ohu3iaMUletISXmia98GCGZ5Rs828w/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">西安:上半年价格拉涨,预计下半年开始信心高位回落,明年4月破零线,市场开始低迷</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4d7avZFxiaSuT4BoxuDwB1cTkibBHg3RqgeY9HvnLPlhZkiaPf5Dr4jdnwqLRpUc4nuuh6A3RBzcxrQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">昆明:价格持续3年增长,市场到达顶部,下半年信心高位回落,明年四月市场开始低迷</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4d7avZFxiaSuT4BoxuDwB1cTyFGDbZ2EF9Ab8Lnta5ggkDSib42ibg16JsOhXamxaPr413XxbmsU8mA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">贵阳:上半年价格已止跌,下半年市场信心稳定上行,预计价格增长有支撑</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4d7avZFxiaSuT4BoxuDwB1clbubJgKStU7K5qa03GDeDIREz7ByDvnpXXTpDA5tSwia9DQjwld61LA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">南宁:价格持续多年增长,下半年信心高位回落,预计明年5月跌破零线,市场开始低迷</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4d7avZFxiaSuT4BoxuDwB1cp5e1JiabwBo1uxkVMCU0xlPicVv9iaXyJAdOKiaodia7JXSfEI6w6wHkeMA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">苏州:价格持续一年调整,上半年信心突破零线,市场重回火热,预计下半年持续冲高</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4d7avZFxiaSuT4BoxuDwB1cWaAjgYDErnMqYx2ORXIat7yDpdEmTKWD81NQ3gkdZxqyR0fX4oadaQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">杭州:上半年信心高位回落,价格进入调整期,下半年信心突破零线,市场持续低迷</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4d7avZFxiaSuT4BoxuDwB1c4Ya6hyNapWufz85SFkibvKDG8giah23JiaysHOR4MkaDwc1f4sBonkxWg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">宁波:2021年开始市场信心持续高位回落,预计明年5月突破零线,市场开始低迷</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4d7avZFxiaSuT4BoxuDwB1cQgHLo3eibyTOJmInETKWJJVXbu5Qky3adLcQ7qjhNU5hubFpKEfvq7A/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">郑州:上半年价格微涨,下半年开始信心持续高位回落,价格将持续处于震荡调整期</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4d7avZFxiaSuT4BoxuDwB1ceadSUcfLQtLicIOLZEjgps2tMBxREl8S3IGOEJoJ27fa6RbbJ3UKibrg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">武汉:2021年开始信心跌破零线,下半年将持续处于探底阶段</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4d7avZFxiaSuT4BoxuDwB1csX6oIghLMUmwMQYpx0ld7OZJbAJA3FljszGlmFdu8N9AvAAcslwxYQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;width: 100%;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-direction: column;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="width: 35px;height: 24px;margin-bottom: -6px;z-index: 1;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><img data-ratio="0.6857142857142857" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/7nmMToyxeGpfeAm5tiaMEy6ia22PiaDlNsXwfthkTmUA4nZUpeYXMSiau5MqciatNhK1wPa8BSmEL3icyqyS3lRt63Zg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="70" style="display: block;" /></section><section data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="height: 34px;background: #7AAD77;border-radius: 17px;padding: 0px 29px;" data-mid="" mpa-from-tpl="t"><p style="font-size: 16px;font-family: PingFangSC-Medium, PingFang SC;font-weight: bold;color: #FFFFFF;line-height: 34px;" data-mid="">小结</p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">总的来说,2021年正式步入房价增长冰点,<strong>全国市场行情普遍躺平甚至下跌,投资需要把握结构性机会——结合周期、房价预测,在空间上可以多关注华北、东北、西南、湖南和粤东地区。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;">不论企业投资买地,还是个人买房“上车”,仍需要大胆假设,小心求证!</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">-END-</span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br /></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box 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data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZfQibibfZGIkjRNwTHwQ4KNp3zu2sgMcS5VLib1OHNDwOibjnPpUoribI5IcQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" width="50px" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img data-ratio="1.0044247787610618" data-type="png" data-w="226" data-width="50px" height="71" width="50px" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzdKK1pWxDY25IjWC6hzyuZPClD30iaLtAVGt7UszT4kJMlymjsJz0yLneTFRIJS1jvpr56X0OGLrQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 50px !important;visibility: visible !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-width="50px" width="50px" data-backw="47" data-backh="47" data-ratio="1" data-w="300" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZficyibw72OWmSMvgNNjSWoDHlf7aSgplp7dtCDAEFtJKHBnC8qaLHSIeQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 50px !important;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="max-width: 100%;width: 115.594px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-role="layout-inner" style="max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box 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100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">感谢你的每一个分享 | 点赞 | 在看</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">SPECIAL THANKS</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 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