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2026年别做「随波逐流的商品」，要做「独一无二的稀缺资产」

发布于 2026-02-09

<p data-layout-id="0" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">各位朋友，过年好。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="1" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">今天我不谈宏观经济，不谈 AI 浪潮，我想谈谈“我们自己”。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="2" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">站在 2026 年，很多中年朋友告诉我，他们很焦虑。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="3" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">这种焦虑不是因为“没钱”，而是因为“迷茫”。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="4" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">我们拼命努力，却发现自己越来越像超市货架上的“打折商品”——哪怕你性能再好，也只能在这个既定的价格区间里，和无数同类产品卷价格、卷加班、卷寿命。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="5" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">在商业上，这叫什么？ 这叫陷入了“大宗商品化陷阱”。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="6" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">当市场上充满了同质化的选择时，</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">价格，也就是你的收入，只能无限趋近于底线</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="7" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">这就是中年危机的经济学本质。</span></span></p><h1 style="color: rgba(43, 119, 191, 1);text-align: center;font-size: 20px;font-weight: 500;line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 12px;" data-layout-id="8"><span leaf="">如何破局？</span></h1><p data-layout-id="9" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">我想和大家分享一个帮我们“把自己重做一遍”</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">的公式。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="10" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">这个公式不仅适用于卖产品，更适用于</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">经营人生。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="11" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">很多人以为，提升身价就是“学更多技能”。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="12" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">错。 霍尔莫齐提出了一个价值公式：</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="13" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">价值 = （梦想结果 × 达成概率） ÷ （时间延迟 × 努力与牺牲）</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="14" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">请注意分母。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="15" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">年轻时，我们都在拼命做分子——梦想结果就是画更大的饼，提升达成概率就是考更多的证。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="16" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">但到了中年，</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">真正的护城河在分母</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="17" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">时间延迟的意思是：</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">你能不能比别人</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">更快</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">地交付结果？</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="18" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">努力与牺牲的意思是：</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">你能不能让你的老板、客户、合作伙伴</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">更省心</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">？</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="19" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">中年人的核心竞争力，不是“我会做”，而是“有我在，你放心”</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="20" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">把“我能干什么”转变成</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">“我能帮你省掉多少麻烦”</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="21" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">当你能极大地降低别人的决策成本和执行阻力时，你就从“大宗商品”进化成了</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">“稀缺资产”。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="22" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">其次，中年人不需要焦虑。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="23" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">很多时候，我们以为自己是能力问题，其实只是</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">概率问题</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="24" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">我们总是试图寻找那个“完美的策略”，却忽略了最笨拙的“更多”。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="25" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">中年突围，不需要什么惊天动地的顿悟，只需要</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">在正确的方向上，进行饱和式攻击</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="26" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">大力，真的出奇迹。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="27" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">最后，也是最重要的一点：</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">选择战场</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="28" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">哪怕你是世界顶级的厨师，如果你在自助餐厅门口卖汉堡，你也会破产。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="29" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">但如果你是在刚刚结束马拉松的终点站卖汉堡，哪怕很难吃，也会被抢光。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="30" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">这就是“饥饿人群”</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">理论。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="31" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">无论是创业、跳槽还是投资，这一步选错了，后续所有的努力都是零。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="32" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">所以，我们要把时间花在</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">“寻找饥饿”</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">上，而不是“制造食欲”上。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="33" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">去找到那个</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">供需极度错配的缺口，然后把自己放进去。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="34" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">这就是过去这两年，我聚焦的三件主要事情：</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">极致降低分母、饱和式行动量、寻找饥饿人群</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">。</span></span></p><section nodeleaf="" data-layout-id="35" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><iframe class="video_iframe rich_pages" data-src="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/mp/readtemplate?t=pages/video_player_tmpl&amp;action=mpvideo&amp;auto=0&amp;vid=wxv_4379794607128182791" data-mpvid="wxv_4379794607128182791" data-vidtype="2" data-cover="http%3A%2F%2Fmmecoa.qpic.cn%2Fsz_mmecoa_jpg%2FmNkpYvnxIA08npyuFTwLOj2ic3PFh7Pib2qANG8dp6ic5N6Cqva9fIiaCuRibia1X2GRaZoXkEEq3LXibYhFpicRQAcfLv9oVBWqFEK0K3ez8fZGMibU%2F0%3Fwx_fmt%3Djpeg" data-ratio="0.5625" data-w="720"></iframe></section><p data-layout-id="36" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">这也是为什么我们要做“河掠财讯”</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="37" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">在那个小小的专栏里，我们每天其实只在做一件事： 利用这套逻辑，在喧嚣的资本市场里，帮大家寻找那些</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">“被低估的稀缺资产”</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">，寻找那些</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">“供需错配的饥饿缺口”。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="38" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">我们希望“河掠财讯”带给各位的，不仅仅是一个代码或一个策略。 更是一种“思维的同频”</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="39" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">我希望当你阅读我们报告的时候，你是在</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">练习一种眼光。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="40" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">一种能穿透迷雾、识别价值、锁定稀缺的眼光。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="41" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">这种眼光，能帮你投资赚钱；更重要的，它能帮你经营好“自己”这家公司。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="42" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">2026 年，世界依然嘈杂。 祝愿我们在座的每一位，</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">不再做随波逐流的“商品”，而是成为独一无二的“大满贯赢家”。</span></span></p><p data-layout-id="43" style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">谢谢大家！</span></span></p><section style="color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);text-align: center;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="44"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-backh="314" data-backw="578" data-imgfileid="502359738" data-ratio="0.544" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmecoa.qpic.cn/sz_mmecoa_jpg/mNkpYvnxIA1PQlKuYqypLm6ftDOLtZBpYTicCAQuPxiaIP1raA9EIVn4Jj8wiak3via33vxh0AZ6SZqypclkZrYqp4CP0b18l3FhnwF4PgopRFM/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="2000" style="width:100%;" type="block"></span></section></section><section style="color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);text-align: center;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="45"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-backh="859" data-backw="578" data-imgfileid="502359739" data-ratio="1.4862385321100917" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmecoa.qpic.cn/sz_mmecoa_png/mNkpYvnxIA1NuicicS7SA4y6XEic05TyeK5YQvayyiaO3651KoBfh8Jr8mBRiahNJy42aun3ZJbKsp6lRaDuWMnSQfD4MbNFI8f60FJMj9Je3sj4/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="654" style="width:100%;" type="block"></span></section></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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