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3月楼市小阳春，春天是不是真的来了！？

发布于 2019-04-03

<p style="text-align: center; margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 12px;">—— 观点 ——</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">大概率不是！！！</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">1、禾略预测接下来，M1将会有所收缩</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">投资端主要受资金的影响，与M1的走势密切相关。2019月1月，禾略预测2月M1的同比增速为1.7%，实际官方公布数据为2%。也就是说，</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 14px;">按照历史规律，目前的放水力度已经有点过，接下来，大概率会收一收。</span><br /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">2、</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170); font-size: 14px;"><strong>经济基本面价值，并没有明显复苏</strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">1季度PMI均值为49.7%，低于去年四季度的均值49.9%，因此，从季度看，经济仍在惯性下滑。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">外需上升，新出口订单指数47.1%，较上月回升1.9个百分点，但仍低于荣枯线，出口形势依然严峻。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">3、市场销售端也并没有明显的起势</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从市场行情、客户预期、价值投资3方面来看，1季度降温城市仍是主流，并且有恶化趋势。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">4、尽快出货，减少资金占用</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">无论从当基本面、还是从销售端来看，3月份这一波地王是极其不理性的，可能会造成后期经营节奏上的压力，在这个状态下，禾略建议把握住机会尽快的实现销售，减少资金占用与库存。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">5、2019年第二季度，利好预期或将落空</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">投资端的火热，可能会令今年第二季度，很多预期落空，例如，调控放松的预期，持续努力放水的预期。</span><br /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">6、</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170); white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">市场回归理性，适合拿地、投资并购</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">3月份没有抢到地王的开发商，不用沮丧，反而可能是好事。禾略建议，密切关注第二季度，因为土地市场逐渐回归理性，以合适的价格拿到优质地块的机会更多，投资并购的机会更多。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center; margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 12px;">—— 正文 ——</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">3月全国土拍市场一片火热，投资端表现出异常激进，刷新纪录势如破竹，各地相继爆出新地王：</span></strong></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><em><span style="font-size: 14px;">3月2日，广州，合景以8.3万元/㎡楼面价，夺得自持55%金融城地块，成为新晋地王；</span></em></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><em><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 14px;">3月4日，杭州，经过3个小时，中南以总价416938万元、楼面价27531元/㎡拿下艮北新城地块，打破地价；</span></em></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><em><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 14px;">3月11日，阜阳，超20家房企，突破阜阳单价、楼面价新高，成为双料地王；</span></em></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><em><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 14px;">3月12日，成都，德商地产以楼面地价17200元/㎡拿下金牛区茶店子地块，成为持平地王；</span></em></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><em><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 14px;">3月18日，南昌，近200轮激烈竞价，正荣刷新地王；</span></em></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><em><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 14px;">3月19日，宣城，上百轮竞价，宣城新地王诞生；</span></em></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><em><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 14px;">3月21日，杭州，佳兆业以63185万元总价、楼面地价16475元/m²竞得，创下未来科技城区域新高；</span></em></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><em><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 14px;">3月21日，合肥，史诗级土拍，50家房企抢地，短短2个小时，合肥土市揽金124.47亿；</span></em></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><em><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 14px;">3月22日，厦门，中南以9.2亿、楼面价26211元/㎡收入囊中；</span></em></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><em><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 14px;">3月27日，天津，正荣以总价22.33亿、楼面价12468元/㎡拿下张家窝南站自持比重约5.5%地块… …</span></em></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">3月的楼市小阳春，会不会重蹈股市的覆辙？</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们认为，大概率会的！！！</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">最惨的就是躲过顶部，却在小阳春反弹时，盲目乐观激进投资。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center; margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" style="width: 100%; height: auto;" data-ratio="1.3333333333333333" data-w="1080" data-type="jpeg" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIw2988pcyr07ykOzvltssCMTVCRnYvAADIMfkU7h8mxaNdkxxy9FfC9HbUlsnYMBDFIGYPf2KCBAw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-s="300,640" data-copyright="0" data-before-oversubscription-url="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIw2988pcyr07ykOzvltssCMTVCRnYvAADIMfkU7h8mxaNdkxxy9FfC9HbUlsnYMBDFIGYPf2KCBAw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-backw="556" data-backh="741" /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">最近的地王潮，跟我们前期的预测如出一辙。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">正如 “<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247485182&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=d9b78056fb35c418ca570e2bc7882d4f&amp;chksm=97557cdaa022f5ccb6caeb86c20d0b996ec8c83bb7ec88b7df01f03c73081b49c2766b1e2b38&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2" data-itemshowtype="0">2019-2029年，中国房地产行业年均销售额20万亿</a>”一文中，提醒大家的：2019年3月，可能会爆出不少地王，在此，我们建议开发商还是应该克制，避免盲目追高，更好的投资拿地机会，或许在4月。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center; margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.6111111111111112" data-w="1296" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIw2988pcyr07ykOzvltssCMX1aY6J2xB1J2tibEYlWmibFll7wn5Vibvic43dcqToQKBGODK39QAiaRu4Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-s="300,640" data-copyright="0" /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">禾略认为投资端主要受资金的影响，与M1的走势密切相关。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2019月1月，禾略预测2月M1的同比增速为1.7%，实际官方公布数据为2%。也就是说，按照历史规律，</span><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170); font-size: 14px;"><strong>目前的放水力度已经有点过了，接下来，大概率会收一收。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这一波地王，实际是情绪上的非理性释放，并不是真正的经济基本面价值，产生了变化。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">1季度PMI均值为49.7%，低于去年四季度均值的49.9%，因此，</span><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170); font-size: 14px;"><strong>从季度看，经济仍在惯性下滑。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">外需上升，新出口订单指数47.1%，较上月回升1.9个百分点，但仍低于荣枯线，</span><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170); font-size: 14px;"><strong>出口形势依然严峻。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">也不是房地产销售端发生了积极变化。我们可以从3个方面仔细探究：</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">市场行情周期、客户预期周期、价值投资周期</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">在此之前，我们再次（在以往文章中多次出现，是当仁不让的宠儿）向大家说明禾略研究周期的逻辑，</span><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170); font-size: 14px;"><strong>周期体现的是预期、是大多数人的心理感受。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center; margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.5606653620352251" data-w="1022" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIw2988pcyr07ykOzvltssCMYMd293ic3UqWb1TFxt5Gs2MgiaibSwz7nl1jQUD52ibNaIib3EiaRRQ5Up7w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-s="300,640" data-copyright="0" /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 14px; background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);">（1）市场行情</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们以二手房挂牌价体现市场行情，观测市场温度。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">全国289个城2019年1季度，升温城市119个，占比41%，降温城市170个，占比59%。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">全国在1季度近6成的城市在降温。2019年2季度，禾略预测，情况会恶化</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">，升温城市112个，占比39%；降温城市177个，占比61%，增加2%。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><img data-ratio="0.562015503875969" data-w="1032" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIw2988pcyr07ykOzvltssCMbTSoQyUfA2ic4oC3uTiaK3kG3C6yCQCicm1eVExn6cu7ic1iazoFNpicU2Aw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-s="300,640" data-copyright="0" /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><img data-ratio="0.5626204238921002" data-w="1038" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIw2988pcyr07ykOzvltssCMUCmtDha1CTOZozgMBpfghJDa9qVrsKAv11flQwLV0Aca4X0Y4mEUyQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-s="300,640" data-copyright="0" /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span><br /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 14px; background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);">（2）客户预期</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们以二手房关注价，体现客户预期，观测大部分客户心理预期的变化。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2019年1-2季度，客户预期升温城市仅占三成，降温城市约七成。说明，</span><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170); font-size: 14px;"><strong>全国289个城市，约200个城市的客户，对于市场的预期并不乐观。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这个结论也许会让很多人大跌眼镜，会发出“<span style="font-size: 14px;">怎么跟我的感受完全不同</span>”的疑问，这正是我们的价值，也是大数据的魅力之一，以全局的眼光来看世界，会更加全面。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><img data-ratio="0.5616570327552987" data-w="1038" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIw2988pcyr07ykOzvltssCMCdKYayXfw81ibScaG12LiaYAT84hjA9A9Bdr8ghTTXkG2NYMKV44PsUQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-s="300,640" data-copyright="0" /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><img data-ratio="0.5601539942252165" data-w="1039" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIw2988pcyr07ykOzvltssCMPEuhbotgCWuMFbZj2bRmibgN6XnldoxqgK8rYOuF9Dn0fJuSSQS6hjw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-s="300,640" data-copyright="0" /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 14px; background-color: rgb(2, 30, 170);">（3）价值投资</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们以租金与房价的关系（价值投资=租金/房价），观测城市价值投资周期。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">当城市价值投资周期，在熊市或者牛市转向熊市的时候，该城市价值投资，有泡沫化倾向，不是好兆头；当城市价值投资周期，在牛市或者熊市转向牛市的时候，说明该城市居住价值，得到了提升，人们愿意花更多的钱，在居住消费上，对应的房价支撑力更强。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">从全年四个季度来看，全国289个城市降温的城市，由40%增加到66%，也就是说</span><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170); font-size: 14px;"><strong>2019年，全年预计将新增26%、75个城市，价值投资有泡沫化倾向</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">，如何不掉进坑里，需要一颗理性的大脑。</span></p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><img data-ratio="0.5586808923375364" data-w="1031" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIw2988pcyr07ykOzvltssCMDyzQaIicYZRp3azfalHZGvI96EAeZ71oMyiaD8nIibfeX5f37AuA8Aj9w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-s="300,640" data-copyright="0" /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><img data-ratio="0.562862669245648" data-w="1034" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIw2988pcyr07ykOzvltssCMia4ktmJDVtrs5bn9NrzDcVg5dnQU1DC68ic2ibIcq7b06HW71hkazwCqw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-s="300,640" data-copyright="0" /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><img data-ratio="0.5760598503740648" data-w="802" data-type="png" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIw2988pcyr07ykOzvltssCMpicUBPuTnMY9O3fMcedHd6o6VncDAL6mIBwPUusyIjsKsUwSBnuJ0aA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-s="300,640" data-copyright="0" /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170); font-size: 14px;">从基本面、从销售端来看，3月份这一波地王是极其不理性的，</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 14px;">可能会造成后期经营节奏上的压力，在这个状态下，我们建议把握住机会，尽快的实现销售，减少资金占用与库存。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">投资端这么火，背后其实是开发商，对于市场预期普遍向好，很多人在赌政策的放松。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">但是，禾略认为，如果我们从政府的角度出发，放松调控的主要动力，就是为了确保实现高价卖地，实现在开发商普遍预期向好的时候，把钱圈进来，以便在市场向下走的时候，可以有资金做逆周期操作，托住市场。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">现在，竟然三月份都高价把地卖出去了，那么还需要放松调控吗？</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">万一放松以后，房价上涨，那中央问责，乌纱帽危险；</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">万一放松以后，房价涨不上去，那还要防止开发商乱降价造成社会不稳定，乌纱帽还是危险；所以，</span><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170); font-size: 14px;"><strong>最后就是假装要放松，把高价地卖出去以后什么都不干，让开发商自己去折腾。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">这就是悖论，在悖论之下，今年的第二季度，可能很多预期都会落空。例如，调控放松的预期，持续努力放水的预期。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">3月份没有抢到地王的开发商，不用沮丧，反而可能是好事。禾略建议，</span><span style="color: rgb(2, 30, 170); font-size: 14px;"><strong>现在赶紧密切关注第二季度，因为土地市场逐渐回归理性，以合适的价格，拿到优质地块的机会更多，投资并购的机会更多。</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-align: center; letter-spacing: 0.54px; margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px; white-space: normal; min-height: 1em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 12px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word;">—— END ——</span></p><p style="text-align: center; letter-spacing: 0.54px; margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px; white-space: normal; min-height: 1em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); overflow-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word;" /></p><p style="text-align: center; letter-spacing: 0.54px; margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px; white-space: normal; min-height: 1em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); overflow-wrap: break-word;"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word;" /></p><p style="text-align: center; line-height: 27.2px; letter-spacing: 0.54px; margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px; white-space: normal; min-height: 1em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); overflow-wrap: break-word; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word;">猜你想再看<br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word;" /></span></p><p style="text-align: center; line-height: 27.2px; letter-spacing: 0.54px; margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px; white-space: normal; min-height: 1em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; widows: 1; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); overflow-wrap: break-word; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal;"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word;" /></p><p style="line-height: 27.2px; letter-spacing: 0.54px; margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px; white-space: normal; min-height: 1em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); overflow-wrap: break-word; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="font-size: 12px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word;">城市：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word;">|&nbsp;<a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831649&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=191239418c15b0c6f395c843415da5fd&amp;chksm=8351793eb426f028970ac64031955167bfde997cdc96375bfb3bce25b5076f1458e11be2be27&amp;token=217203186&amp;lang=zh_CN&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">徐州</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831649&amp;idx=4&amp;sn=3a8acfb05820bbd38cd7b15a58e92ec9&amp;chksm=8351793eb426f028dfd96ec6ffc5239a84aaf25b6643813aa6b4a597b9a3215e7ab25e2b4eaf&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">宿迁</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831649&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=1fcdc66fac79d5ba9504bc24314a14f9&amp;chksm=8351793eb426f02829eef9ba1dfcb8c3e91edb05d3c1d34c548b82f618928834f1da5907d2e7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">淮北</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831649&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=18d65f24543e71ff6bc70eb1cb0a7bde&amp;chksm=8351793eb426f028b98805f0f7555bfc57e3aefe6c76e7ca8df0369ad5dcc4a593a011a9b029&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">唐山</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831649&amp;idx=5&amp;sn=9f550e5d1f6bd3becc92df723adedd61&amp;chksm=8351793eb426f0289523b13ecd4fcb3d227a3cb259a09e504d388ace5a5eb25ece3aecfe8d46&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">天津</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831491&amp;idx=4&amp;sn=4c4fb5ce9d25c1fe6012d719c5878c82&amp;chksm=8351799cb426f08a8a6b9f35c8db84ceac56401b6da4a6429d1bc5e3339251db372a5045c242&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">深汕</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=5&amp;sn=c2d8bae147d4a2d86ec992c50c39ddad&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a50b1acbe92593aabba12c3fb95e9966d93ecad99918dbcf654b9ce767405&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">哈尔滨</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831491&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=1e787f725d62f227dbc6c33d0b9ea3eb&amp;chksm=8351799cb426f08accd8896c160b37e7a4436d21e1fbf2cc596763115db5ef6e04dc914ce478&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">兰州</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=4&amp;sn=048088acd651254d77cc238d71b1af04&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a7c36e33460f244db68a856502151c73820b314470b7e24412b9a8b6dcd5b&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">常德</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831491&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=b6295a149a38a026e886d81014b568f3&amp;chksm=8351799cb426f08a8a8d7adbd8721956fd91c59be8bd1ec35d4f9963a11e7e67bee72cd49405&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">南宁</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=8&amp;sn=0efaff09c26e604d7aa5c29376c129ad&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07abb37dd11a0cfe941868be2b543feebf288460418759254327292658947ae&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">桂林</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=12f08ffb076544edcbc24e91bc3d87d7&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a1cd4530a9033d462d4732c500dcdda723bdc3a87f4d55f1c62f657a4cb77&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">柳州</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=6&amp;sn=0a89c4ab17039cec25754aa111b87308&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a6fdc14a1c0e877928f2fa46798a8b592b2b2023ad1c65081bbc80b2fafad&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">蚌埠</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=7&amp;sn=1bc72e377ffc3b621c2886d68c437515&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07adc8c50a3e1409197892c508ad9c27a6b52f8e4dde12740baf5674f5a7fa6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">合肥</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831491&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=10e3d481f7fd0ff46dafe2648cd3ddfb&amp;chksm=8351799cb426f08a5118705d6b85487fa97dd013a2aee842be719ee13086aab8dee370b54185&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">南京</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831603&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9ffda0c7d9667d6700966a8bab12eccf&amp;chksm=8351796cb426f07a4e94a2471b2d59264ed4460e0567c63095fad9c5704541a546d7bc23584a&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">上海临港</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831065&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2ffb60d98d02ebcab655c55d34d0acbf&amp;chksm=83517746b426fe509cc721e0e3acf05fd1f60b8695dc3b66c08c0a7aa917e7471b013b02c2c2&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">太原</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830804&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f571d8218b897b21571a6b2f497d3a1b&amp;chksm=8351744bb426fd5d509591673f4082563a02342283f53dfda255ad33304e6746d6448051b9ea&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">温州</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830454&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=4e7c3289190e2a69c5fb20f2ae8a6d94&amp;chksm=835175e9b426fcffa5f65cafe5274b1c296caf1a51e13ef4c7920c5a18847bef3c7b13c2bfd0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">昆明</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830295&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f680ffa2ddf52783e9a7730971520d48&amp;chksm=83517248b426fb5e0efc1e5c62d15b173e4d23ab7aafaab82c6ce861e98d96271fe5dc7db798&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">嘉兴</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830278&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8441ac780477cd9def8d4e9d7866f143&amp;chksm=83517259b426fb4f93ff50f1c07d7b830f16ec4d1e0c23f64ef15a78a056ae301274ffbb8ec3&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">重庆</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830196&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=7a599cf338734c1d41c6fa16005b1641&amp;chksm=835172ebb426fbfdda6873adbeddc124ae670de675a7c36d11977106150a1d924572ea70f299&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">成都</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830221&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f5994dbfe9fa00ffce4b5be1a69f3244&amp;chksm=83517292b426fb8419e771cf48ea94de01fc7dc909b4e8c2759c6423b8be6080bc5bd1c248cc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">深圳</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829995&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=cd78421e4f2e724f552f8eefc65e0236&amp;chksm=835173b4b426faa26aed46ed566bc1f8ffa11498370fed14fa9d0690795a3eff5a186c63a03d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">上海</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829512&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=421f2b766d75009082de8fc1e81cd8d2&amp;chksm=83517157b426f84197c93fd852a3e3f93019c9d81e099784ad0aa09f326ca9dd33a0edb7cfd7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">珠三角</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829480&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c77baf137c109f1017170a708548d37b&amp;chksm=835171b7b426f8a1d942708988b8f4bd875366f5928d1db99470ccad6958aa0c8cd47b292c23&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">雄安新区</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=401964235&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8839375241e6a7e69f49aec108ca1ad6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">无锡</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=203026648&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=466dca69ff3eb746e2e5c21831d57f0f&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">北京</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word;" /></span></p><p style="line-height: 27.2px; letter-spacing: 0.54px; margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px; white-space: normal; min-height: 1em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); overflow-wrap: break-word; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="font-size: 12px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word;">热点：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word;">|&nbsp;<a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831957&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=a889b497d60264ef90aea585e4d4556f&amp;chksm=83517bcab426f2dc5e2b3778bc8e8834b453c4eac98c490ebeb525c4a5b01093fe602418b8fb&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">美国地产</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;</span><a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831073&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=b9e813dced68e2e1397bd2cc2b6d05c7&amp;chksm=8351777eb426fe68993e996d9312897701ad0e93a7703c5d719dc20ebf09a1b0c6715f502e4d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2"><span style="font-size: 12px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word;">长租公寓</span></a><span style="font-size: 12px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830578&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=73f5149b299d5ce19a433c365eedee83&amp;chksm=8351756db426fc7b173558a1765830766ec5f7fb387e652250f10a106ef6490821f809722cfb&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">中美贸易战</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830503&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2fae9eec64a6ed71f0c4ee9e4e9bafe7&amp;chksm=835175b8b426fcaec41bb2a484ef939ac78474c77acde2d96a6f7f8b61a0f4ade630c13e7f90&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">粤港澳</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830398&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=ffd40b9cb7730bd712d8f053280d6fa9&amp;chksm=83517221b426fb37e97b45db61547227724f5a09e6a2a0484a55475066ac41fc1b0165954d0d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">万科商业</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830360&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=3cea24af7ebf848fde74c52538f111e5&amp;chksm=83517207b426fb11a1ae1c301117e9626ba09012aa9d8b4d8f722e45423ecb7e63987f50bec5&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">2018年走势</a>&nbsp;|<br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word;" /></span></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.54px; margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px; white-space: normal; min-height: 1em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="font-size: 12px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word;">专业：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word;">|&nbsp;<a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831987&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=8553537eb64de48a9b7eb16564fe8988&amp;chksm=83517becb426f2fa0c63ef59ace65085334609b45795331170f0edb7f455d154c06d53aa85f7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">穿越熊市</a></span>&nbsp;<span style="font-size: 12px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="max-width: 100%;">|&nbsp;<a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831371&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9b15fe316680aabc64e2b7c37e5767d8&amp;chksm=83517614b426ff0229de8ab490c6a7fb33f9e7de34bae145abd3565818c5965c1eca5a4b0029&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">地产研报</a>&nbsp;</span>|&nbsp;<a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831103&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=6ae2c7ba214abd19c76ed907399b77b7&amp;chksm=83517760b426fe767422812a59d53a334c00664a2cc146d59a076bc0e59a062f518c7df00861&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">投资</a>&nbsp;|<a style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649831043&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=dcae4bb0d9c69a6aefeb48f7447dff10&amp;chksm=8351775cb426fe4a32f43b1fe3a11ebffb7d381291adc0746d6d0ed9f3efb882617e0407aa10&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">&nbsp;思考</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830765&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=d21dbefeb5e1aea1599bcec8fae7a7d4&amp;chksm=835174b2b426fda4b66776ffb3da368f2b71e44233e17581d647b246e52aa53255140e3adac0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">客研</a><span style="max-width: 100%;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830698&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=27ffa7f097500e9e7fb23f99fdce51ef&amp;chksm=835174f5b426fde3854d2eec6dc6fd1c0c182faa0218d1b0ce833e50c860c23b062b88f914e0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">高周转</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830656&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=dc61474f9d09133fcce2934476ea10c1&amp;chksm=835174dfb426fdc9575a9a316aef5c25d051f574d0cd96ae3d1cda189bca7c7b0b7447e403e4&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">房价预测</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830457&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=37a5c454028fb849c2c5fce3b3575756&amp;chksm=835175e6b426fcf07c9d8fdee249e33edf0ae7f5684be2290c3145624ad430d880a10a654ebd&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">2018房地产报告</a>&nbsp;</span>|&nbsp;&nbsp;<a style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649830201&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=1816623486b879233513443f1df6ec59&amp;chksm=835172e6b426fbf07aa0f023c3ff79ca1cf11606fc2f2b66cfe773222e3fa1df7f92affa90b6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">远郊定位&nbsp;</a>|&nbsp;<a style="outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMDEzOTgyNA==&amp;mid=2649829710&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=58d632f4b07dc0796127ef5df605bb36&amp;chksm=83517091b426f9871fa25aed40ade8d757557347ecf505d8b9510645b5adcc6d703caed90b31&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data-linktype="2">时势蓝图</a>&nbsp;|</span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>

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