官网首页 › 研究观点 › 观点正文

300%季度增长!AI服务器机架Q3出货1.16万台创纪录,Q4将达1.57万台

发布于 2025-08-30

<p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">核心结论与预测调整</span></span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1. 出货量上修</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- 将2025年GB200/300机架总出货量预测从3万台上调至3.4万台(NVL72等效机架),主要因ODM厂商(尤其是鸿海)的强劲指引。</span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- 季度拆分:</span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; - Q3:预计出货1.16万台(原预测1-1.1万台),鸿海AI机架季度环比增长300%。</span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; - Q4:进一步增长至1.57万台,主因GB300量产(9月底/10月初)及客户需求延迟。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2. 产品结构</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- 2025年GB200与GB300占比分别为87%和13%,GB300放量集中在Q4(约4500台)。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">ODM厂商竞争力排名</span></span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1. 鸿海(Hon Hai)</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- 主导地位:预计2025年出货1.95万台,占市场份额57%。</span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- 优势:Q3指引超预期,4Q持续增长,AI服务器业务进展快于同行。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2. 纬创(Wistron)</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- Q3因产能调整出货受限,但Q4将恢复增长。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">3. 广达(Quanta)</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- Q4增长依赖GB300交付,但竞争压力较大,利润率可能受数据中心价格战影响。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">2026年初步展望</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">- 潜在规模:若NVIDIA Blackwell芯片库存达200万片且产量持平,下游组装商可交付超6万台机架。</span></p><p><span leaf="">- 风险:芯片供应、客户需求波动及地缘政治因素可能影响预测。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">关键图表与数据</span></span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1. 月度/季度出货分布(Exhibit 1-2)</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- 月度峰值出现在下半年,Q4为全年高点(鸿海贡献显著)。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2. 市场份额(Exhibit 3)</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- 鸿海(57%) &gt; 广达(21%) &gt; 纬创等(其他合计22%)。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">3. 产品世代占比(Exhibit 4)</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- GB200主导,GB300占比13%。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">个股分析与风险提示</span></span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1. 鸿海(2317.TW)</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- 上行风险:iPhone销售超预期、AI服务器业务加速、EV进展。</span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- 下行风险:消费电子疲软、地缘政治冲击。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2. 广达(2382.TW)</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- 机会:笔记本/服务器需求强劲、GB300渗透提速。</span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- 挑战:劳动力成本上升、数据中心价格战。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">3. 纬创(3231.TW)</span></span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- 催化剂:消费电子业务剥离、产品结构优化。</span></p><p><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;- 风险:NB需求下滑、产能转换延迟。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">行业评级与法律声明</span></span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">- 行业观点:</span>与市场一致(In-Line),覆盖公司包括鸿海、广达等硬件科技企业。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">- 免责声明:</span>报告可能存在利益冲突(摩根士丹利与部分被覆盖公司有投行业务关系)。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">其他要点</span></span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">- 数据来源:</span>ODM财报、客户反馈及供应链调研。</span></p><p><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">- 方法论:</span>采用剩余收益模型(RIM)进行估值,假设权益成本8.5%-9%、终端增长率3%。</span></p><p><span leaf="">注:报告强调实际终端客户交付量可能低于预测(因组装测试时间未完全计入)。</span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

← 返回观点全库